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Text of the page (random words):
e world and gold the anti usd the new global reserve currency or rather the oldest global reserve currency ever keeps seeing safe haven buying and this is a surprise i think not labels greece moodys ratings agencies stock markets have their ducks lined up usd remains soft posted by i bottini 5 07 pm 0 comments wednesday february 09 2011 how thin is the ice eur usd 1 3672 hi 1 3681 low 1 3610 usd jpy 82 43 hi 82 66 low 82 24 aud usd 1 0107 hi 1 0151 low 1 0091 eur jpy 112 72 hi 112 80 low 112 06 well the narrative remains cool calm collected we had that you know crisis thing but well we threw a lot of taxpayer money at it and now things are coming along signs of economic recovery are everywhere not least in the steady upward rise in u s treasury bond yields which is great really because it means that this quantatitive easing thing is working because er obviously now confidence is back and these er previously low long term rates have maybe fostered confidence and encouraged er borrowing and lending and all that groovy stuff that keeps the economy ticking over you can tell this because er u s bond yields are rising and this is a sign of confidence qe was meant to get bond yields higher right oh maybe not but it doesn t matter now that they are higher then we better figure out a way to explain why this really is a good thing and nothing to worry about so higher bond yields means one thing and one thing only a stronger economy ok i like this as a narrative because it s the best that can reasonably be done with some pretty scary data somehow somewhere during this new era in global economic history the u s lost the foreign investor you know all those nice friendly naive foreigners who believed the spiel about the usd being an international reserve currency and the safest place to put your money and blah blah blah if you want proof then just follow this link scroll down the page and click on quarterly analysis and charts that takes you to a nice little table which gives you some pretty scary numbers something is up the u s federal reserve has been buying u s treasuries like crazy over the past few months so much so that according to the most recent data while china holds 896bn and japan owns 877bn of u s government debt by june the fed will have accumulated some 1 600bn of treasury securities but the mad rush by the fed to buy more treasuries than gulp japan and china combined has failed to keep u s bond yields from rising that is all that fed buying has failed to keep the u s government bond market from selling off net selling doesn t appear to be a flood quite yet but buyers have pretty much disappeared altogether and the u s government keeps issuing paper but what does it mean here s a clue if you have been living off the largesse of someone else read foreign investors and if that someone else turns off the money tap for whatever reason then your standard of living is likely fall how far and how fast it falls depends on how dependent you came to be on the money flow right now the u s is going with the idea that it doesn t matter if foreign investors have turned off the money tap because all the fed has to do is print money this is the weimer republic approach to money management it s not like it hasn t been tried before it s just that it doesn t work the next stage in this fabulous strategy is to send buckets of money to people in the post i mean why bother doing anything at all if you can just print money why work why produce why save why invest why have an economy at all all you need is a printing press and all your problems are solved which is true actually if you can get foreigners who are still working and producing to hand over their goods in exchange for what you have been printing up willy nilly and it worked pretty well for a while but the game is up foreigners don t seem quite so happy to play the game any more meanwhile with helicopter ben in charge back at the fed a surreal episode of the hitchhikers guide to the galaxy is unfolding before our very eyes oil 87 22 gold 1 363 10 labels federal reserve money printing quantative easing treasuries posted by i bottini 10 58 am 0 comments wednesday june 30 2010 it s the euro debt crisis stupid eur usd 1 2226 hi 1 2238 low 1 2165 usd jpy 88 59 hi 88 71 low 88 38 aud usd 0 8536 hi 0 8560 low 0 8463 eur jpy 108 31 hi 108 53 low 107 67 well what you gotta love about the ft is it s remarkable consistency as a paper they are there to paint a picture to create a narrative and they do the facts are secondary but the narrative is crystal clear whatever economic problems there may be out there in the world there is one unifying theme it s all the fault of the european sovereign debt crisis today consistent with their mandate the ft is leading with not one but two euro doom and gloom headlines the first in nice big bold letters is markets tumble on ecb loan fears right no mention of the plunge reported yesterday in u s consumer confidence which is probably attributable to the european debt crisis anyway no mention of the major correction on the chinese stock market no mention of the strong rally which european stock markets registered monday this week a rally which was not replicated on u s markets no the poor performance of global stock markets tuesday was entirely the result of the dire state of the eurozone the financial tabloid s second slightly smaller headline today was what will save the euro well nothing to worry about there the ft s wolfgang munchau has the answer only a closer union can save the eurozone phew glad they have the answers up their sleeve i was beginning to think the euro was a lost cause now it doesn t bother me overly that these people continue to produce ponderous all knowing articles about the crisis in the eurozone after completely missing the imminent and obvious anglo saxon credit crunch until well after the global economy was splattered all over its windscreen what really bothers me is the lack of reporting of the basic facts basic facts are important opinions are a dime a dozen largely superficial and of no great import to anybody but facts count so let s get to some facts as part of the ft s leading front page article our friends oakely mulligan and atkins note that the euro tumbled to an eight and half year low against the japanese yen yesterday well yes indeed and the usd jpy hit another major low too in fact the usd jpy has been on the slide since the credit crunch started and looks likely to hit an all time record low soon so the low seen on the eur jpy is probably not that significant not that you d notice from reading the ft one of the interesting little tidbits that i garnered from an ocean of opinion in another article yesterday which was trying to make the point that greek debt troubles parallels the subprime crisis it was a laboured point and the parallels were shaky was this in june 1992 five year bonds in greece yielded 8 25 the government deficit was 11 5 of annual gdp and debt was 110 greece s rating at the time was triple b minus right sixteen years later in june 2008 the greek deficit was 5 and accumulated government debt was 98 of gdp even though greece had been running government deficits in the interval huh how did they manage that well it happens all the time actually same thing happened in italy in italy government debt to gdp ratios have been up around the 100 level for decades it s part of the furniture and why were these basic facts on greece interesting well for all the talk of this is not sustainable this will end in disaster etc etc etc ad nauseum it seems that even with relatively high yields a massive level of accumulated government debt and ongoing deficits the greek situation was sustainable in 1992 and in fact the history shows it was sustained you can of course make the case that this time it s different but then we are right back to opinion and conjecture the naysayers can have their opinions but the facts are facts and they speak for themselves please no more back of the envelope calculations no more straight line projections opinions and general blatter can we get back to reporting at least the data maybe even the history and some facts friday we have non farm payrolls the market is not expecting good news yesterday when u s consumer confidence came out well under market expectations the markets sold the eur usd which makes sense not well it didn t last everything everywhere is not the fault of the european debt crisis this boring refrain will run into trouble sooner or later euro bears beware oil 76 11 gold 1 243 70 no new news labels euro troubles greek bond yield history greek debt crisis sustainable debt levels usd jpy hits low posted by i bottini 10 02 am 6 comments tuesday june 29 2010 scardey cat and boo eur usd 1 2189 hi 1 2290 low 1 2150 usd jpy 88 43 hi 89 40 low 88 27 aud usd 0 8540 hi 0 8702 low 0 8506 eur jpy 107 80 hi 109 86 low 107 30 the financial times led today with a photo on page one a nice big photo of a lightening strike hitting a greek monument on a scary dark night this particularly informative piece was accompanied by a three line caption investors signalled alarm at greece s planned return to capital makets next month one economist said it was a very odd thing to do and warned that the high yields charged could undermine confidence not just in greece but across the eurozone the caption does have a point it is an odd thing to do unless of course your real goal is to create a crisis as part of a larger strategy aimed at undermining the euro and euro credit markets this odd auction makes perfect sense and let s be perfectly frank so far the greeks have done a rather good job of messing up european debt markets so credit where credit is due for a small country with a relatively unimportant debt market greece has been extremely successful in creating a much wider european debt crisis not it appears that they are happy with their success so far so now they are having another shot at it and just how odd is this next auction pretty odd actually greece has seen no good news recently indeed it has been downgraded again by one or other of the ratings agencies and greek government bond yields have risen well above the 5 rate guaranteed by the ecb loan package so the idea that this is the perfect time to test the markets seems well a little hard to justify i have heard no cheering from the ratings agencies about how good the greeks have been in trimming their deficit not that that is expected to happen ever that s not the nature of the game but financial markets don t seem to be cheering either that said despite the rather unpleasant position in which greece finds itself and the ominous noises about sovereign debt markets generally the end of the world as we know it scenario has manifestly failed to unfold tardy but effective packages put in place by the plodding euro team has effectively ring fenced the greek crisis that is up till now if the greek central bank decides to by pass all that and go directly to capital markets to roll over this piddling amount of debt then we could have a problem with a little more hysteria from well placed financial tabloids and ponderous articles by the usual suspects not to mention sound bites by that bundle of joy nouriel roubini has this man the most dismal manner of any still living human in the universe or is it just me suggesting that the euro s days are numbered well in days then this next crisis might have legs we need the odd greek auctions to go off badly which is not that unlikely and then we need at least some of the corporate press to run around screaming and waving their arms around about how awful it all is which is what they do best at least of late the financial times has become a tabloid and rupert murdoch now owns the wall street journal expect more photo journalism from both and in the midst of all this doom and gloom there are of course consolations the americans can and actually have tried to pin the failure of their economy to show signs of autonomous life on the european sovereign debt crisis in addition if investors can somehow be persuaded that the euro is doomed then maybe investment flows will shift towards that obviously fabulous safe haven the usd and more particularly the u s treasury market some success has been reported though there have been little sign of japanese or chinese buyers stepping up to finance uncle sam of late u k buyers of u s treasuries have shown a spike not much of a trend when you think about the state of the u k s government deficit not to mention the u k s huge external deficit ie it s own savings deficit we are not talking about a real and enduring source of cash here but it s a start maybe but let s be optimistic in july the euro zone will start to move into summer mode nice timing by the greeks volumes on financial markets are likely to fall and you never know what you can get away with in thin markets it s worth a shot now the only problem with this strategy is the possibility that the euro team gets off it s collective backside and actually decides to turn up at said auction in order to stave off a further crisis in credit markets which would roil the banking sector further disrupt credit markets generally and create a real economic crisis which so far despite all the valiant efforts of our heroes has actually failed to be created thus far and i know you wouldn t know that from the headlines and the ponderous articles which have all been doom and gloom particularly where the euro zone is concerned the european economic recovery continues and provided the euro team does not ignore the risks inherent in this new greek move then a gathering in the speed of recovery can be expected into year end currency markets have been interesting the real mover has been the jpy expect more of the same my target for usd jpy is 80 00 by year end and what that tells you is that japan as a source of finance for deficit nations is going the way of the dodo nothing is likely to change that particular fact and this is bad news for countries and or currency areas which are running an external deficit note to euro doom and gloomers the euro is not running an external deficit oil 76 46 gold 1 235 40 with global economic growth looking strained the outlook for commodities remains ugly oil is unlikely to see strength assuming of course that we don t engineer another war in a sensitive area located somewhere in an oil producing region if oil falls too far there is always the attack on iran which can be pulled off the shelves dusted down and put into action but there has to be quite a lot more massaging of public opinion to be done before we get there for now the outlook for oil is clouded at best gold however is another story it s not inflation we don t have any of that the driving force behind the gold move is the rush to diversify away from the current international reserve currency the usd no other currency wants this dubious s...