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Text of the page (random words):
cession forcing the federal reserve which only a few months ago was moving towards a tightening in monetary policy to fend off inflation to now re assert its policy of quantitative easing to avoid any posssibility of a drift towards deflation meanwhile the german economy turns in a 2 2 per cent quarterly growth spurt unified germany s best ever performance the annualised 9 per cent growth rate is as the financial times noted virtually unprecedented in developed economy terms such dramatic changes rather than reassuring us that all is well only lead to even more doubts is it really desireable for an economy to shoot forward so dramatically only to fall back again in the second half which is what almost everyone monsieur trichet included expects to happen not only does the german performance seem exaggeratedly large at the other end on europe s periphery the result was lamentably small greece naturally exceeded everyone s expectations on the downside with a 1 5 per cent quarterly contraction a 6 per cent annual rate but spain remained at the bottom end of the range with a 0 2 per cent expansion as did portugal undoubtedly the greek contraction will slow as the year advances but the outlook there continues to be preoccupying only today the greek manufacturing pmi which showed the contraction in greece s industrial sector accelerated again in august has reminded us of just how difficult it is going to be for the country to return to growth and especially if the external environment now starts to deteriorate as the ft s david oakley said yesterday in many ways germany could be said to have had a good crisis since the greek issue pushed the euro down and german exports up while the current flight to safety is driving down the yield on german bunds to record lows even as it pushes up the spreads for peripheral europe sovereigns among other imapcts this gives german companies an even greater competitive advantage as their capital costs come down even while those for their competitors go up spreads which are the additional borrowing premiums countries have to pay over benchmark bunds hit a fresh record of 357 basis points in ireland this week following problems in allied irish bank and a standard poor s downgrade in portugal and spain spreads have been creeping back up and are now once more close to their all time highs spain s 10 year bonds are trading at about 192 basis points above germany compared with 57 at the start of the year while portugal is trading at 333 basis points compared with 67 on january 1 the following chart shows how peripheral spreads have evolved since the start of the year they have been indexed to 1st january as is evident they shot up in may then came down to lower levels in july but during august they have once more been climbing all three economies are experiencing extremely weak growth and ireland is even flirting with deflation higher government borrowing costs can harm economies in a number of ways from higher borrowing costs for companies to added pressure on a country s public finances as more is eaten up in interest charges leaving less for public services and stimulus effectively the presence of a large spread differential means that monetary policy is applied unevenly across the euro area despite the one size for all objective of the ecb and doubly so with a credit crunch which means some banks struggle to finance as a backdrop japan trapped on the ropes and as if all of this wasn t enough germany s main competitor in asia where german exports have been clocking up large increases has been effectively ko d by the flight to safety produced by the sovereign debt crisis japan s exchange rate against the usd dollar is now hovering around a 15 year high the consequence of this is not hard to predict while germany clocks up record exports to china and other parts of the continent the japanese recovery is gradually grinding to a halt as the latest manufacturing pmi report only confirms we need to seriously address the imbalances at the end of the day it is hard to avoid the conclusion that we continue to live in a very unbalanced and essentially economically unstable world where currency valuations and economic growth rates fluctuate with unnerving rapidity not only that the recent federal reserve meeting seems to have constituted some sort of defining moment the point when everyone finally recognises that the long promised recovery was no longer simply weeks or months away and that emerging from the trough in which the developed economies find themselves is going to involve a long period of slow and painful effort one where we will also need time to clean up the mess we have made in cleaning up the original mess assuming that is that we have the dynamism and energy to do so on thing is clear the old habits won t work any better now than they did before 2007 and external deficits which were not sustainable then will not be sustainable now so we need a new model a model in which the emerging markets will have a much larger role to play than ever before and if we are to move towards a more sustainable future then we need to move beyond those simplistic headlines stressing the virile nature of germany s export prowess there is no doubting the efficacy and competitiveness of many german companies but for that very reason that country needs to shoulder more of the responsibility for sharing the burden which is involved in finding solutions here in europe we don t only need sacrifices in the south some of them also need to be made in the north german industry is enjoying real and tangible benefits via artificially low interest rates and an undervalued currency from the mess that the greeks created for themselves but in the interest of all european some of those benefits need to be plowed back in again since if greece is allowed to fail no one will be the winner looking beyond europe we need to think about how to best aid and abet the emerging economies in their quest for growth and better living standards earlier in the crisis i asked nobel economist paul krugman a question which is very much to the point at a time when the financial crisis is generalised across all developed economies whether because those who borrowed the money now have difficulty paying back or those who leant it now struggle to recover the money owed them to which new planet are we all going to export my response to him back in january was that maybe we don t need to look so far afield many developing economies badly need cheap and responsible credit lines and access to state of the art technologies so why not accept the world is changing and go for some sort of new marshall plan one capable of generating a win win dynamic which would be in all our interests at the time the proposal seemed totally unrealistic and unobtainable now with every day which passes it starts to look essential and who knows maybe the rise of a number of other major economic powers would help solve that bipolar currency problem which is currently causing our policymakers so many headaches posted by edward hugh at 5 44 am no comments monday august 30 2010 one swallow doesn t make a summer but well as we all well know one swallow doesn t make a summer and one data point doesn t swing an argument one way or another but the latest retail sales pmi reading for germany is far from being either uninteresting or for my part surprising basically after only two months in the last twenty seven of registering growth the august pmi suggested that german retail sales once more fell back and the anecdotal explanation for this spain s victory in the world cup affected the shoppers appetite actually from a long term aggregate point of view i think and economic study would be a waste of time if it weren t like this that rather more factors come into play than football and the weather august data signalled a modest decline in month on month sales reversing the solid upward trend registered in both june and july at 48 4 down sharply from 57 2 in the previous month the seasonally adjusted retail pmi was below the 50 0 no change value for the first time since may the latest reading was the lowest for four months and slightly below the long run series average 49 1 anecdotal evidence suggested that less favourable weather conditions and reduced consumer footfall had negative impacts on like for like sales in august some retailers also noted that the end of the football world cup had contributed to a decline in household spending of course the retail pmis are not an exact science and they only give us an indication of the retail environment but their long term trend is not in disharmony with the actual sales data provided later by the statistics office since sales in germany have been generally trending down and as the writers of the report say the long run series average 49 1 does show slight ongoing contraction consumer confidence on the other hand has risen slightly in recent months but it is still well below the pre crisis level while the zew investor sentiment index normally a forward looking indicator has been dropping steadily for some months now so if we combine this with the august flash german pmi reading which dropped back slightly over earlier months it would seem that some easing off of german gdp is taking place and indeed few will be surprised by this since the very rapid rate of q2 growth was clearly a one off the issue really is that these very rapid leo messi in the box type accelerations don t seem to pass through to self sustaining via the consumption pillar expansions and i do wish more people would start to ask themselves why this is moving on to other parts of the euro area french retail sales seem to have continued to grow in august although at a rather weaker pace than in july but whichever way you look at it french retails sales have a decidedly more positive look about them than their german equivalents what really seems striking to me is the difference in outlook being expressed by the retailers in the respective countries according to the german report although retailers were downbeat about their actual sales in august latest data pointed to a surge in optimism about the prospects for sales in september the degree of positive sentiment about the outlook for sales in one month s time was the most marked since april 2008 almost one quarter of survey respondents anticipate sales to beat their initial forecasts a number of retailers linked their optimism to improving conditions in the domestic economy on the other hand the french report talks of caution among those interviewed the value of goods ordered by french retailers for resale decreased for a second straight month in august panellists indicated that they preferred to take a cautious approach to stock decisions at the present time correspondingly inventories declined at the fastest rate since january one wonders what the basis for such expectations actually are it couldn t possibly be that they are being influenced by the press and media coverage of the situation could it since in neither case do i see the expectations as especially realistic the french seem to be too pessimistic and the germans way too optimistic meanwhile over in italy it was plus ça change as retail sales continued their now customary decline if at a rather weaker pace than in recent months with the consequence that the eurozone retail sales index suggested that sales across the euro area fell very slightly in august on aggregate well all meat for monsieur trichet to chew on before thursday s meeting posted by edward hugh at 3 18 am no comments older posts home subscribe to posts atom adiós a la crisis my spain book edward hugh s facebook page links comments debate and much much more blog home page german economy watch our blogs alpha sources bonobo land edward hugh blog rss feed global eurozone french economy watch german economy watch greece economy watch italy 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in germany 2010 6 septembe...