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Text of the page (random words):
published in our working paper series you can als o find summaries o f selected papers here books effective altruism philosophical issues greaves pummer oxford university press 2019 moral uncertainty macaskill bykvist ord oxford university press 2020 what we owe the future macaskill basic books 2022 effective altruism and the human mind schubert caviola oxford university press 2024 essays on longtermism thorstad barrett greaves oxford university press 2025 philosophy publications ethics and future generations longtermism existential risk and population axiology population ethical intuitions caviola althaus mogensen goodwin cognition 2022 longtermism and aggregation curran philosophy and phenomenological research 2025 concepts of existential catastrophe greaves the monist 2024 optimum population size greaves the oxford handbook of population ethics arrhenius et al eds 2022 comparing existence and non existence greaves and cusbert ethics and existence the legacy of derek parfit mcmahan et al eds 2022 the case for strong longtermism summary greaves and macaskill essays on longtermism greaves et al eds 2025 strong longtermism and the challenge from anti aggregative moral views heikkinen gpi working paper 2022 time discounting consistency and special obligations a defence of robust temporalism lloyd gpi working paper 2021 are we living at the hinge of history summary macaskill ethics and existence the legacy of derek parfit mcmahan et al eds 2022 the significance persistence contingency framework macaskill thomas vallinder gpi technical report 2022 the hinge of history hypothesis reply to macaskill mogensen analysis 2024 the weight of suffering summary mogensen the journal of philosophy 2024 respect for others risk attitudes and the long run future mogensen nous 2024 philosophical considerations relevant to valuing continued human survival conceptual analysis population axiology and decision theory mogensen gpi working paper 2023 the only ethical argument for positive ઠ partiality and pure time preference mogensen philosophical studies 2022 do not go gentle why the asymmetry does not support anti natalism summary mogensen gpi working paper 2021 moral demands and the far future summary mogensen philosophy and phenomenological research 2021 staking our future deontic longtermism and the non identity problem summary mogensen gpi working paper 2019 the paralysis argument summary mogensen and macaskill philosophers imprint 2021 how cost effective are efforts to detect near earth objects newberry gpi technical report 2021 how many lives does the future hold newberry gpi technical report 2021 should longtermists recommend hastening extinction rather than delaying it pettigrew the monist 2024 future suffering and the non identity problem pummer gpi working paper 2024 human extinction from a thomist christian perspective riedener effective altruism and religion riedener et al eds 2022 how much should governments pay to prevent catastrophes longtermism s limited role shulman and thornley essays on longtermism greaves et al eds 2025 the epistemic challenge to longtermism summary tarsney synthese 2023 non additive axiologies in large worlds tarsney and thomas ergo 2024 longtermism in an infinite world tarsney and wilkinson essays on longtermism greaves et al eds 2025 dispelling the anthropic shadow thomas gpi working paper 2024 the asymmetry uncertainty and the long term thomas philosophy and phenomenological research 2023 doomsday and objective chance thomas gpi working paper 2021 a non identity dilemma for person affecting views thornley gpi working paper 2024 a fission problem for person affecting views thornley gpi working paper 2024 critical set views biographical identity and the long term thornley australasian journal of philosophy 2025 the scope of longtermism summary thorstad australasian journal of philosophy forthcoming mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk thorstad ethics 2024 high risk low reward a challenge to the astronomical value of existential risk mitigation summary thorstad philosophy and public affairs 2023 aggregation in an infinite relativistic universe wilkinson erkenntnis 2024 infinite aggregation and risk wilkinson australasian journal of philosophy 2023 can the long term matter if extinction does not wilkinson gpi working paper 2023 decision theory and ethics fanaticism cluelessness moral uncertainty and more in defence of moderation barrett gpi working paper 2024 moral uncertainty and public justification barrett schmidt philosophers imprint 2024 a paradox for tiny probabilities and enormous values summary beckstead thomas nous 2024 how should risk and ambiguity affect our charitable giving buchak utilitas 2023 a bargaining theoretic approach to moral uncertainty greaves cotton barratt journal of moral philosophy 2023 on the desire to make a difference greaves thomas mogensen macaskill philosophical studies 2024 consequentialism cluelessness clumsiness and counterfactuals hájek gpi working paper 2024 tiny probabilities and the value of the far future kosonen gpi working paper 2023 when should an effective altruist donate summary macaskill giving in time madoff and soskis eds 2023 why maximize expected choice worthiness macaskill and ord nous 2020 the evidentialist s wager macaskill vallinder oesterheld shulman treutlein the journal of philosophy 2021 maximal cluelessness mogensen philosophical quarterly 2021 doomsday rings twice summary mogensen gpi working paper 2019 tough enough robust satisficing as a decision norm for long term policy analysis mogensen thorstad synthese 2022 calibration dilemmas in the ethics of distribution nebel stefánsson economics philosophy 2022 on two arguments for fanaticism russell nous 2024 time bias and altruism sung mind 2024 against anti fanaticism tarsney philosophy and phenomenlogical research 2024 expected value to a point moral decision making under background uncertainty tarsney noûs 2025 moral decision making under uncertainty tarsney thomas macaskill stanford encyclopedia of philosophy 2024 heuristics for clueless agents how to get away with ignoring what matters most in ordinary decision making thorstad mogensen gpi working paper 2020 the unexpected value of the future wilkinson ergo forthcoming flummoxing expectations wilkinson noûs 2024 egyptology and fanaticism wilkinson philosophical studies 2024 can risk aversion survive the long run wilkinson the philosophical quarterly 2023 can an evidentialist be risk averse in the moral good wilkinson gpi working paper 2022 in defence of fanaticism summary wilkinson ethics 2022 political philosophy social experimentation in an unjust world barrett buchanan oxford studies in political philosophy 2023 social beneficence barrett gpi working paper 2022 longtermist institutional reform summary john macaskill gpi working paper 2020 meaning medicine and merit mogensen utlitas 2019 the freedom of future people schmidt philosophy public affairs 2025 economic inequality and the long term future schmidt juijn politics philosophy economics 2023 risks from artificial intelligence a polycrisis threat model for ai bales ai society 2025 ai takeover and human disempowerment bales the philosophical quarterly 2024 artificial intelligence arguments for catastrophic risk bales d alessandro kirk giannini philosophy compass 2024 will ai avoid exploitation summary bales philosophical studies 2023 societal adaptation to advanced ai bernardi mukobi greaves heim anderljung 2024 evolutionary debunking and value alignment dale saad gpi working paper 2024 input to un interim report on governing ai for humanity saad et al 2024 towards shutdownable agents via stochastic choice thornley roman ziakas ho thomson technical a i safety conference 2025 the shutdown problem an ai engineering puzzle for decision theorists thornley philosophical studies 2024 the shutdown problem incomplete preferences as a solution thornley working paper 2024 shutdownable agents through post agency thornley working paper 2025 against the singularity hypothesis summary thorstad philosophical studies 2024 what power seeking theorems do not show thorstad gpi working paper 2024 digital minds against willing ai servitude bales the philosophical quarterly 2025 ai alignment vs ai ethical treatment ten challenges bradley saad analytic philosophy forthcoming varieties of moral agency and risks of digital dystopia bradley saad american philosophical quarterly forthcoming principles for responsible ai consciousness research butlin lappas journal of artificial intelligence research 2025 taking ai welfare seriously long sebo butlin finlinson fish harding pfau sims birch chalmers working paper 2024 how to resist the fading qualia argument mogensen gpi working paper 2024 in search of a biological crux for ai consciousness saad gpi working paper 2024 digital minds takeoff scenarios saad caviola simulation expectation summary thomas erkenntnis 2024 mind and value consciousness makes things matter lee philosophers imprint forthcoming chains of care and the expanding circle of prudential concern li saad once more without feeling mogensen philosophy and phenomenological research forthcoming welfare and felt duration mogensen gpi working paper 2024 desire fulfilment and consciousness mogensen gpi working paper 2024 a dualist theory of experience saad philosophical studies 2025 economics publications normative economics the structure of critical sets bossert cato kamaga gpi working paper 2025 population ethics with thresholds bossert cato kamaga gpi working paper 2025 the cross sectional implications of the social discount rate eden econometrica 2023 xu fryxell working paper 2024 infinite ignorance fryxell working paper 2024 utilitarianism is implied by individual and social dominance gustafsson spears zuber working paper 2023 nondogmatic social discounting millner american economic review 2020 choosing the future markets ethics and rapprochement in social discounting millner heal journal of economic literature 2023 a characterization of cesàro average utility pivato journal of economic theory 2022 cesàro average utilitarianism in relativistic spacetime pivato social choice welfare 2023 intergenerational equity and infinite population ethics a survey pivato and fleurbaey journal of mathematical economics forthcoming what should we agree on about the repugnant conclusion tarsney spears pivato macaskill kuruc greaves et al utilitas 2021 population and welfare population and welfare measuring growth when life is worth living adhami bils klenow and jones working papers 2025 intergenerational transmission is not sufficient for positive long term population growth arenberg kuruc franz vyas lawson lopalo budolfson geruso and spears demography 2022 the long run relationship between per capita incomes and population size eden and kuruc gpi working paper 2024 the end of economic growth unintended consequences of a declining population jones american economic review 2022 the speed of history fryxell and kuruc working paper 2024 long term population projections scenarios of low or rebounding fertility spears vyas weston and geruso plos one 2024 is less really more comparing the climate and productivity impacts of a shrinking population vyas budolfson kuruc spears and geruso working paper 2024 animal welfare animal based foods have high social and climate costs errickson kuruc and mcfadden nature food 2021 the impact of new products on ethical beliefs freitas groff macdonald vivalt monetizing the externalities of animal agriculture insights from an inclusive welfare function kuruc and mcfadden social choice and welfare 2023 existential and catastrophic risk is extinction risk mitigation uniquely cost effective not in standard population models alexandrie eden essays on longtermism 2023 catastrophic climate change population ethics and intergenerational equity méjean pottier fleurbaey zuber climate change 2020 intergenerational experimentation and catastrophic risk pitsuwan gpi working paper 2022 existential risk and growth trammell aschenbrenner gpi working paper 2024 risks and opportunities from ai computational ethics jamison et al trends in cognitive sciences 2022 measuring ai driven risk with stock prices campos martins gpi working paper 2024 imperfect recall and ai delegation chen ghersengorin and petersen gpi working paper 2024 the a i dilemma growth versus existential risk jones american economic review insights 2024 economic growth under transformative ai trammell and korinek annual review of economics forthcoming philanthropic decision making funding public projects a case for the nash product rule brandl brandt greger peters stricker suksompong journal of mathematical economics 2022 the conservation multiplier harstad journal of political economy 2023 quadratic funding with incomplete information mota freitas and maldonado social choice and welfare 2024 patient philanthropy in an impatient world trammell technical report 2022 dynamic public good provision under time preference heterogeneity trammell gpi working paper 2024 ethical consumerism trammell gpi working paper 2024 evidence and policy making understanding and increasing policymakers sensitivity to program impact bell and toma journal of public economics 2024 estimating long term treatment effects without long term outcome data bernard lee wang gpi working paper 2023 cassandra s curse a second tragedy of the commons colo gpi working paper 2022 altruism in governance insight from randomized training mehmood naseer chen journal of development economics 2024 prediction the long and short of it millner heyen american economic journal microeconomics 2021 numbers tell words sell thaler toma wang gpi working paper 2025 how much can we generalize from impact evaluations vivalt journal of the european economics association 2020 how do policymakers update their beliefs vivalt coville journal of development economics 2023 local knowledge formal evidence and policy decisions vivalt coville kc journal of development economics 2025 effective giving cognitive behavioral therapy reduces crime and violence over ten years experimental evidence blattman chaskel jamison sheridan american economic review insights 2023 how effective is more money randomizing unconditional cash transfer amounts in the us jaroszewicz hauser jachimowicz jamison gpi working paper 2024 psychology publications global catastrophic risk and longtermism crying wolf warning about societal risks can be reputationally risky caviola coleman winter lewis 2025 population ethical intuitions caviola althaus mogensen goodwin cognition 2022 beliefs about the end of humanity how bad likely and important is human extinction coleman caviola lewis goodwin 2025 it only takes one the psychology of unilateral decisions lewis allen winter caviola 2025 misjudgment exacerbates collective action problems lewis srna morrissey wilks winter caviola 2025 communicating tail risk credibly neto lewis ...