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Text of the page (random words):
ne in concrete terms if mail in ballots had simply reflected election night proportions pratt would have received approximately 15 948 votes in the analyzed batch he received 10 711 a shortfall of 5 237 votes in a single counting batch statistical analysis the chi square test the chi square test measures whether an observed distribution of votes differs significantly from what would be expected based on a reference distribution in this case election night proportions applying this test to the mail in batch chi square statistic 10 376 18 extraordinarily high any value above 6 is statistically significant at the 95 confidence level degrees of freedom 2 three candidates minus one p value effectively zero the probability this divergence occurred by random chance a p value of zero means the observed distribution of mail in votes cannot be explained by random sampling variation from the election night population under standard statistical thresholds a p value below 0 05 is considered statistically significant a p value below 0 001 is considered highly significant this result is not in that range it is below any threshold that statistical science has developed to describe the z score analysis the z score measures how many standard deviations an observed result falls from its expected value in normal human affairs results beyond three standard deviations are considered extraordinary and warrant investigation results beyond five standard deviations are considered essentially impossible by random chance z score for pratt s mail in performance 49 35 forty nine standard deviations below his election night rate a z score of negative forty nine does not exist in the normal range of human statistical experience to find a naturally occurring phenomenon with a z score of this magnitude would require examining astronomical datasets not election results this number is not an anomaly it is a mathematical impossibility under any standard probability model that assumes mail in voters come from the same population as election day voters in statistics anything beyond three standard deviations is considered extraordinary forty nine standard deviations is not a number that occurs in nature through random variation the current state of the race the cumulative effect of these mail in batches has been dramatic 6 7 pratt current share 78 counted 27 3 down from 29 4 election night raman current share 78 counted 26 2 up from 23 4 election night current pratt lead approximately 7 500 votes narrowing with each batch raman received forty percent of votes counted on saturday a figure that if sustained would be sufficient to overtake pratt before all ballots are counted 7 the race remains uncalled california law allows counties up to thirty days to complete the official canvass millions of mail in and provisional ballots remain to be processed in los angeles county alone the largest voting jurisdiction in the united states with 5 8 million registered voters 8 three possible explanations statistical analysis identifies the anomaly it does not by itself determine the cause there are three explanations that must be considered explanation one population differences california leads the nation in mail in voting with eighty one percent of voters sending their choices by post in 2024 nearly double the national average 9 it is theoretically possible that pratt s support is concentrated among voters who specifically chose to vote in person on election day and that mail in voters skew heavily toward raman and bass however even accepting significant population differences a forty nine standard deviation divergence cannot be explained by population variation alone the pre election poll showing pratt at twenty two percent among likely voters not a dramatically different figure from his election night performance did not distinguish between mail in and in person likely voters in a manner that would predict a divergence of this magnitude explanation two counting methodology or batch composition it is possible that specific batches of mail in ballots being counted represent geographically concentrated areas where raman has disproportionate support council districts she represents for example and that the batches are not representative of the overall mail in population if this is the explanation the los angeles county registrar recorder should be able to document precisely which geographic areas each batch represents and demonstrate that the composition explains the divergence that documentation should be made public explanation three something requiring investigation the third possibility is that something in the counting or reporting process is producing results that do not accurately reflect the votes cast this article does not allege this is the case however the statistical evidence is sufficiently extreme that it cannot be dismissed without documented transparent explanation of the first or second type what transparency requires in a functioning democracy election results that produce statistical anomalies of this magnitude demand documented explanation not reassurance not dismissal but transparent accounting of the counting process specifically the los angeles county registrar recorder should publicly document the geographic composition of each mail in batch released since election day demonstrating which precincts or council districts each batch represents and how that composition accounts for the observed divergence the methodology for selecting processing and releasing mail in ballot batches should be made publicly available any candidate or party requesting observation of the counting process should be granted that access consistent with california election law the zero vote batch 24 000 ballots producing zero votes for a candidate receiving approximately 29 4 percent of all other votes requires specific and documented explanation the appropriate response to a statistical anomaly in a democracy is transparency and documentation not political dismissal or reassurance the numbers are what they are they deserve a clear answer conclusion spencer pratt received approximately 29 4 percent of votes cast on election day in the los angeles mayoral primary in subsequently counted mail in ballot batches he has received approximately 19 7 percent a divergence of 9 7 percentage points that produces a z score of negative forty nine and a chi square statistic of over 10 000 these numbers are not consistent with random sampling variation from the same voter population they are not explained by normal statistical fluctuation they demand a documented transparent and geographically specific explanation from los angeles county election officials the question is not whether spencer pratt should be the next mayor of los angeles the question is whether the vote count accurately reflects the votes that were cast in a democracy that question is never inappropriate to ask and it is always appropriate to demand a clear answer chris mark is an enterprise security and risk strategist published author co author of pci dss named patent holder and united states marine corps combat veteran he writes on security risk and emerging threats at globalriskinfo com references 1 nbc news 2026 june 2 los angeles mayor primary 2026 live results nbcnews com politics 2026 primary elections los angeles mayor results 2 abc7 los angeles 2026 june 4 los angeles mayor race live election results and updates on front runners karen bass nithya raman spencer pratt abc7 com 3 cbs los angeles 2026 june 7 pratt s lead over raman slims in new l a mayoral election results citing uc berkeley la times poll may 28 2026 margin of error approximately 3 cbsnews com losangeles 4 fox news 2026 june 5 spencer pratt loses ground to democrat while hilton maintains lead in latest california ballot batch drop foxnews com 5 fox 11 los angeles 2026 june 6 la mayor s race nithya raman surges closes gap on spencer pratt for runoff spot foxla com reporting raman 23 115 votes 38 bass 20 419 votes 34 pratt 10 711 votes 18 in mail in batch since thursday 6 cbs los angeles 2026 june 7 pratt s lead over raman slims in new l a mayoral election results cbsnews com losangeles citing 78 of votes counted pratt 27 3 raman 26 2 7 the wrap 2026 june 7 nithya raman inches within 1 of spencer pratt after winning 40 of saturday tally in la mayor s race thewrap com 8 nbc los angeles 2026 june 6 gap between pratt and raman gets tighter in la mayoral race nbclosangeles com noting 5 8 million registered voters in los angeles county 9 fox news 2026 june 5 spencer pratt loses ground to democrat citing california leads nation in mail in voting at 81 of voters in 2024 nearly double national average of 43 10 statistical methodology binomial probability calculation p x 0 1 p n chi square test comparing observed mail in distribution to election night baseline z test for proportions z p_observed p_expected sqrt p_expected 1 p_expected n all calculations performed using python scipy stats library 2026 chris mark globalriskinfo com all rights reserved reproduction with attribution share this email a link to a friend opens in new window email share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on linkedin opens in new window linkedin like this like loading unforeseeable is the wrong word what camp mystic teaches us about risk june 4 2026 posted by chris mark in uncategorized 1 comment so far there have been some heated debates online about camp mystic for those who don t recall camp mystic was a christian camp that was flooded in july 2025 and took the lives of 27 people including 25 young campers in reading some of the comments from people i am dismayed at the defense of the safety officer in fact many people online simply said we should forget about it and move on that is irresponsible accountability is key to prevent this from happening again more disturbingly is the basic lack of understanding of foreseeability and risk this brief blog post is intended to explain in laymen s terms how risk management applies to camp mystic and how this could have been mitigaged on july 4 2025 floodwaters from the guadalupe river swept through camp mystic an all girls camp in the texas hill country twenty seven children and counselors died ¹ in the aftermath came a word i ve heard after nearly every preventable tragedy in thirty five years of security work unforeseeable a local official captured the mood when he told reporters they had no reason to believe the flooding would be anything like what happened ¹ i want to take that word apart because it doesn t hold up and understanding why it doesn t hold up is one of the most useful things an ordinary person can learn you don t need an engineering degree you just need to understand what risk actually is the mistake at the heart of unforeseeable isn t a texas mistake or a summer camp mistake it s a thinking mistake and juries executives and well meaning people make it constantly risk is just two things most of us use risk as a fancy word for danger it s actually simpler than that risk is two things multiplied together how likely something bad is and how bad it would be if it happened ² a paper cut is likely but trivial a meteor strike would be catastrophic but is almost impossible neither keeps us up at night because in each case one of the two numbers is tiny the situations that demand real attention are the ones where both are meaningful things that can plausibly happen and would be devastating a camp full of sleeping children beside a river known to flood is exactly that here s the first thing worth understanding clearly flooding is a natural hazard unlike a burglar or a hacker who studies your defenses and adapts a river doesn t scheme it behaves according to rainfall terrain and history that makes flood risk one of the most predictable risks there is we have decades of records known flood maps and a national weather service that issues warnings hours ahead so the usual excuse offered after a surprise no one could have seen it coming carries almost no weight when the hazard is a river that has flooded the same valley for a century you already think like this before we go further there s a good chance you re already an expert at risk and don t know it for years teaching risk to people with no background in it i d tell a room full of parents mothers are some of the best risk managers alive they just don t know they re doing it that got puzzled looks so i d walk them through it when it s cold out what do you tell your kids before they go outside every time the same answer put on a jacket why because i don t want them to get sick so i d push a little they can t get sick unless they re cold no they d say but there s a greater chance if they re cold that right there is risk management boiled all the way down she spotted a hazard cold judged that it raised the likelihood of a bad outcome illness weighed the consequence and put a control in place ahead of time the jacket she didn t wait to see exactly how cold it would get or whether this particular child would actually fall ill she acted on the category of risk in advance with a standing rule hold onto that because it s the same move that should have protected the children at camp mystic and the same move whose absence is the whole story foreseeable doesn t mean predicted to the inch this is the most important idea in this piece foreseeability is about the kind of event not its exact size when people call the camp mystic flood unforeseeable they re quietly swapping two very different claims 1 we didn t know a flood could happen here this is false the camp sits in a region locals literally call flash flood alley the river had flooded before including a deadly 1987 flood on the same stretch of water that killed teenagers being evacuated by bus ³ the hazard wasn t just known it was famous 2 we didn t expect a flood this severe this may well be true and it doesn t matter the exact height of the water is never known in advance but you don t need to predict the precise crest to know what to do think of a smoke alarm when it goes off at 3 a m you don t lie in bed calculating how large the fire is or whether it ll reach your bedroom you get everyone out the alarm tells you a category of danger exists your response leave the building is the same whether the fire turns out to be small or total flood warnings work identically once dangerous flooding is possible here is established the correct action move people to higher ground doesn t change based on the forecasted number of feet the warning triggers the action the water s eventual height does not that s why we didn t expect it to be that bad isn t a defense it s an admission it means someone decided in advance how bad a flood would have to be before they d act and then bet children s lives that the real flood would stay under that line it didn t the it s never happened before trap a second common defense i...