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aring the end the 4 week moving average of initial unemployment claims has been dropping for several months yeah it s dropped from about 650 000 to about 630 000 this is not exciting news and might just be a blip we ll know more in a few months next the non farm payroll employment change improved from about negative 750 000 in january to about neg 350 000 in may oops back to neg 450 000 in june he calls the latter an outlier in the series this is only true if the 5 month extrapolation is valid again we ll see the challenger job cut report shows a precipitous decline in job cuts while new jobless claims have only leveled what gives the seasonally adjusted number of mass lay offs dropped but recently started moving up again which stewart shrugs off retail food services auto and home sales have stopped declining as has real personal consumption expenditures none of them have started to increase plus extended unemployment benefits are starting to run out this can only further stress our consumer spending driven economy manufacturing and non manufacturing indexes have been increasing rather irregularly for several months however they have yet to reach the downward sloping trend lines evident since 2006 imagine a line laying on top of the bars in stewart s graph the six month forecast of general activity has come close to its maximum possible reading while current activity is still near zero the last time this spread occurred was in 01 02 not a happy comparator general business conditions are still negative and the most recent change is down but my biggest objection is that stewart draws his analogies and conclusions based on data series that only go back to 1948 if the proper analogy for these times is the great depression he is ignoring the most relevant historical data posted by jazzbumpa at 1 37 pm no comments labels criticism current events economics great depression history misery wednesday july 8 2009 wednesday poetry blogging for a time in the early 90 s i was the poet laureate of dental extractions i was gifted with two lower wisdom teeth no wisdom up above make of that what you will my daughter wound up with three for a while here is a real life event recorded more or less as it happened given an uncertain amount of poetic license spoiled brat referring to my daughter was an inside family joke at the time karen in the chair the outlook wasn t brilliant for the impact three that day they were destined for eviction from their cozy hideaway to leave them there would be unwise there s trouble they could cause like pressure on the molars or infections of the jaws their fate was to be broke up like a would be double play yanked out like a pitcher on a sad bad spit ball day then thrown out like a runner who can t quite steal that base because we have the wisdom now to help karen save face those who preceded karen in this wise dentistry related their pained mem ries of extraction misery so our stricken spoiled brat was faced with grim despair and now we had to take our chance with karen in the chair the x rays had uncovered karen s outlaw band of three we were struck with wonder at her wise asymmetry what wisdom could explain her ab rant oral geometry no doubt a cursed remnant of her strange heredity there was ease in karen s manner quiet dignity and grace the procrastinator s blessing kept the smile upon her face responding to our questions she just sang a happy tune oh yes she said i ll worry but not one minute too soon she put off the appointment willing wise to wait but was unable to avoid the setting of the date any other day will do she said through clenched teeth but let s not undertake this job on friday the thirteenth ol doc said you ve got your nerve it branches there within one fork tiptoes to your tongue the other to your chin you may feel a tingling in the tip before we re through but it shouldn t be a problem for someone as young as you so thursday came the right day for advancing oral health ol doc glanced at the calendar saw that it was the twelfth he opened up his tool box and surveyed the power there put on his mask and goggles escorted karen to the chair ol doc offered goof balls mickey finns and laughing gas karen said i will not whine my jaw s not made of glass but just so i won t feel it and will not have to pout we would both be better off if you just put me out they needled her a little bit we know this girl is tough but it was the consensus that a local s not enough so our stricken spoiled brat was saved from grim despair as she drifted off to slumber in his not so easy chair and now the latex covered hands into her mouth did slip drug sleep drooped in karen s eye a clamp curled karen s lip there with wrench and pliers drill and hammer brace and saw i can dig it ol doc said while working at her jaw the clamp has fled from karen s lip her teeth have extra room her swollen cheeks are packed with gauze her head is filled with gloom amid the fragments smoke and gore her wisdom headed south we know a molar victory was won there in her mouth oh somewhere in this favored land a smile is shining bright a girl is eating apples not chicken soup and yogurt light and somewhere steaks are sizzling taters crunch and diners shout but there s no chewing in our house karen s wisdom was struck out ___________________________ spoiled ok yeah probably brat though not so much a few hours after the surgery she was helping me move furniture posted by jazzbumpa at 11 34 pm 1 comment labels humor poetry monday july 6 2009 if you give a mouse a piece of toast he s going to ask for a cup of coffee when you give him the cup of coffee he ll probably start remembering things and this if fine to a point but he s not getting any of my lagavulin _______________________________ nope no apologies posted by jazzbumpa at 2 38 pm no comments labels old age recovery science sunday july 5 2009 sunday music blogging here is another original by the late tim krekel enjoy posted by jazzbumpa at 2 06 pm no comments labels music really sad saturday july 4 2009 independence day music blogging contrary to what lying partisan hacks like bill o reilly ben stein and bruce tinsley will tell you liberals do love america here sam the american eagle leads us in the stars and stripes forever __________________ the knuckle dragging moron actually found a way to screw up the 4th of july impressive in a depressing sort of way frex me posted by jazzbumpa at 10 14 am 3 comments labels can you believe this shit civil discourse conservatism conservative shark jumping criticism music patriotism really sad friday july 3 2009 que sera sarah i will freely admit that my feeling for sarah palin is the deepest contempt my horror at her selection as the vice presidential nominee in 2008 inspired my entry into the blogosphere as i said at the time sarah palin is a lying unqualified bullying flip flopping political hack eventually enough people saw through her to perceive the cynicism and hypocrisy that her selection represented as thoughtful conservatives abandoned the republicans largely because of her this might have influenced the general vote enough to usher in the obama presidency her resignation today as governor of alaska is a deep disappointment i was eagerly looking forward to her presidential run in 2012 but i must also admit to a bit of schadenfreude posted by jazzbumpa at 9 47 pm no comments labels civil discourse conservatism conservative shark jumping current events really sad thursday july 2 2009 collapse continues there has never been a better time to be retired and on a fixed income as long as my pension fund is solvent and the ss admin keeps its promises my income will be fixed not so people who have to work for a living posted by jazzbumpa at 4 43 pm no comments labels benefits current events economics misery pension really sad we are so screwed wednesday july 1 2009 wednesday poetry blogging the date stamp on the file for this poem is august 2000 so i suppose that s when i wrote it it is the narrative of a real incident just as it happened my wife and i were driving around one day rather aimlessly and went into a park there was a lake and we took our shoes off and waded along the shore line it wasn t crowded but there were quite a few people there in the water and along the beach i am not a religious person but this was a deeply moving event here is how it happened saving time such a simple thing to lift a child hands grasp her sides a second pair of ribs beneath plump arms and swing her high inconsequential weight on angel s wings farther down the beach a gathering mexican pentecostal church of god all clad in white and black their sunday best with angel voices raised in spanish hymns that little girl no taller than my knee has not yet mastered walking on dry land in childish guile she flees her family s eyes makes her way to water s edge and in senor juan baptiste strides chest deep into the lake the others arms raised high invoke god s power as he grasps behind the neck supports each penitent beneath the waves when no one else was looking at this girl i saw her falter fall then float face down two splashing steps hands on her ribs i raise her out and draw her to my chest we could have driven past this lake today or lazed another minute on the shore or turned our wading walk the other way instead i found myself above this child juan baptiste mouths a spanish prayer lifts his new found brother from the lake as i lift and hold this child close to me saved as by the very hand of god posted by jazzbumpa at 9 15 am no comments labels poetry newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom change in plans no 2 stock market musings are now located at amateur elliott amateur elliott welcome readers i know you re out there come on say something topic label list and links are at the bottom of this column have fun disclaimer do i need to point out that i am not a financial adviser registered stock analyst or anything other than a guy playing with ideas for his own amusement get your own data do your own thinking make your own decisions i am not telling anybody to do anything with even a single penny of their assets happy speculating gold via www kitco com change in plans starting sunday feb 6 2010 light hearted stuff has been moved to a new blog if you are meant to find it you probably will if you need directions write me meanwhile the heavy hearted and heavy handed stuff stays here cheers jzb rules of engagement over at angry bear mike kimel has posted a list of things to think about if you want to be taken seriously it might be worth your time to check it out a few are specific to his situation most are not examples 1 don t cite authority as proof 2 get your data from a reputable source 7 do not argue by assertion 15 time moves in a single direction about me jazzbumpa somewhere great lakes basin united states mediocre trombonist excellent grandfather reasonably decent husband concerned thinking citizen left 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