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eau stagflation this is qualitatively defined as a period of high inflation and slow growth i haven t seen a quantitative definition so i made one up stagflation an economic realm characterized by unemployment that is above the long term average level coupled with inflation that is more than 1 5 the long term average level for the period january 1948 through april 2011 these average values are 5 7 and 3 72 respectively the cpi benchmark value is then 5 58 coincidentally these values are so close that they collapse to a single horizontal line on the graph below cpi inflation 12 mo roc is in green unemployment is color coded in blue and red by president s political party my definition is arbitrary feel free to pick one you like better but it is easy to see that the stagflationary period of october 74 to august 82 is unique in the post ww ii era though there was a near miss in december 1970 when the two criteria crossed right at the defined border inflationary peaks occurred in feb 70 nov 74 and apr 80 unemployment made a high broad peak at 5 9 to 6 1 from nov 70 through dec 71 other sharp peaks followed in may 75 and dec 82 during this period the typical contrary motion did not occur instead the two measures moved more or less together with inflation peaks leading unemployment peaks by 6 to 30 months as a side note you can see that every rethug administration leads immediately to higher unemployment it s mixed with the dems kennedy johnson and billy bob both brought unemployment consistently down during their administrations carter gave us a down up sequence and b hoover obama might give us a down to follow his initial up if he is extremely lucky but since obama is an eisenhower republican and the fed is powerless to fight deflation i m not going to hold my breath posted by jazzbumpa at 5 02 pm 10 comments labels economics inflation monday market action european markets were mostly up and the u s kept it going at the opening today the sp500 index quickly jumped up to above 1195 and is now hovering in the range of 1197 1200 this now all appears to be within wave 4 coming off the wave 3 bottom of 1101 54 on 8 09 i had trouble identifying that at the time thinking subwaves within wave 3 might be continuing while that is still possible hindsight now suggests that 1101 54 was the end of wave 3 and the start of wave 4 wave 2 was a pretty simple zig zag from 6 16 to 7 07 so a more complexly structured wave 4 is to be expected on 8 15 i imagined a support resistance line in the range of 1200 05 that might be in play i won t have time for a chart this evening but i will get in some more commentary update not a lot to add the index crawled up the rest of the day to end at 1210 08 against flagging momentum this is the highest value since 8 05 possible retracement values of the entire wave three drop would be as follows clearly the 33 and 382 landmarks are out of play for now 1223 5 is a possibility even 1252 is not out of the question that s about it though wave 1 ended at 1258 07 and per elliott rules wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1 posted by jazzbumpa at 10 49 am no comments labels stock market sunday august 28 2011 ad hoconomics in the early days of the other great depression the roosevelt administration tried out many ideas some good some better some awful to help america out of an economic nightmare that nobody understood at the time this scattershot approach seems to fit both definitions of ad hoc when used as an adjective 1 formed for or concerned with one specific purpose 2 improvised and often impromptu fair enough keynes didn t publish the general theory until 1936 in a financial times article quoted extensively by delong john kay makes this remark about the first generation of keynesians who engaged in ad hoc ery in trying to determine the consumption function not this which related aggregate spending in a period to current national income and thus get a handle on the multiplier effect but you would not nowadays be able to publish similar work in a good economics journal you would be told that your model was theoretically inadequate it lacked rigour failed to demonstrate consistency to be ad hoc is a cardinal sin rigour and consistency are the two most powerful words in economics today kay concludes the belief that models are not just useful tools but are capable of yielding comprehensive and universal descriptions of the world blinded proponents to realities that had been staring them in the face that blindness made a big contribution to our present crisis and conditions our confused responses to it this is a damning indictment of macroeconomics as practiced by the neoclassical school i level this criticism specifically at them since the opposing keynesians seem to have rather useful models and more importantly are not bound by giving more credence to the model than they give to the real world and perhaps most importantly of all keynesians are either roundly criticized as idiots or simply ignored and have no influence on current policy neo classicists and their near equivalents whether of the chicago austrian or libertarian persuasions are the opposite if the model conflicts with reality as it sooner or later must models always and everywhere being simplified and therefore inaccurate approximations then it is reality that is somehow wrong and these are the very serious people who determine and influence policy a criticism of keynesian economics is that it was unable to anticipate the stagflation of the 70 s that s true it wasn t it s funny though that neo classicists who were also equally clueless about stagflation though i guess friedman and phelps did have a clue had and still do not have any explanation of the high employment of the 30 s and of now come to think of it other than the great vacation theory in 1970 keynes had already been dead for 24 years a more vital keynes perhaps would have made an attempt to analyze understand and explain stagflation that was his approach to difficulties 40 years prior anyway the thing to remember about keynes is that he did not overthrow the edifice of economics as it existed in the 30 s he expanded it to include realms that were otherwise incomprehensible it s reasonable to assume that he would have done the same in the 70 s had the rather inconvenient passing away not long since intervened the problem with conservative economists of all stripes is not that they are always wrong as hard as i am on them and their models they get some things right some times the problem is that they give full credence and dependence to contrived comprehensive and universal descriptions of the world and little or none to contrary facts and dat a that actually occur in the world their models so inadequately describe hence they do not recognize that the universe of economics contains different realms and that when in these different realms different policy solutions are needed austerity is right in certain times and places but not at a time and place when unemployment is high and interest rates are bumping against the zero interest boundary that they refuse to acknowledge the need for fiscal stimulus or even that the zero interest bound is of any relevance is quite telling ispo facto the keynesian solutions were tried in the 30 s and they worked it is quite likely they would work today if there were the political will to employ them rather than very serious and very painfully destructive austerity and since they are tried and true methods there would be no need for an ad hoc approach __________________________________ you have to register with ft to read the article but go ahead it s free and worth it the 4th pillar of the conservative mental process manifests itself as some sort of denial of reality posted by jazzbumpa at 9 23 pm 16 comments labels conservatism criticism current events economics great depression we are so screwed friday august 26 2011 what the hell friday economics and space aliens typically the right wing has willfully misinterpreted krugman s little thought experiment about the expansionary effects of an alien invasion big surprise conservatives are typically humor impaired irony deficient and lacking in imagination all that besides being liars coincidentally or not mark put up a post with a series of scatter plots relating gdp to various debt measures and spiced it up with quotes from the 1986 reagan admin another coincidence movie aliens here is the second graph in mark s post does it remind you of anything how about this read more posted by jazzbumpa at 1 23 pm 2 comments another weak week in the market oh no big ben let us all down his ho hum 10 00 edt speech caused the markets to fall never mind that the sp500 gapped down at the opening and made a big spike up 14 points or so as of 10 35 that started shortly after 10 00 as i said yesterday people get paid to make this stuff up anyway the surge of the last several minutes is counter current and the move down from yesterday s opening looks very much like an impulse all of that and more should be given back by the end of the day i ll post a chart after closing update i highlighted a phrase from this morning s start to this post because it was so spectacularly wrong i live blog the stock market as an exercise in personal humility as if playing the trombone weren t enough interestingly it seems bernanke buoyed up the market after all go figure the sp500 made a jagged climb up to almost 1180 shortly after noon then broke out of its trend channel and spent the rest of the day quivering around 1175 the failed support line from 8 18 before closing at 1176 8 this is touted as the best market gain in two months which is rather curious since the index has been wiggling sideways still or again in a collapsing band since the 8 05 high of 1218 11 and the 8 09 low of 1101 54 without covering any new ground today s action was contained within the range of the previous two days on tuesday i said a rise above the subwave i low of 1184 calls this wave counting into question and if 1208 is topped it all goes out the window except for a quick needle thrust to 1190 yesterday morning this is holding for whatever that s worth anyway here s a chart for the week courtesy of yahoo finance with my mark ups the sideways motion can continue for a while but not forever nothing yet is suggesting that the main direction is up so my bearish stance continues posted by jazzbumpa at 10 42 am 1 comment labels self referential claptrap stock market thursday august 25 2011 where is the dollar going a couple of weeks ago i foolishly boldly made a number of predictions about certain economic indicators one of these was the dollar index we haven t looked at it since the beginning of the year this is a good time since menzie chin has a long post on the subject today menzie wishes for continuing depreciation to effect global rebalancing he includes a lot of graphs but none of them provide a detailed look at the results this year fred to the rescue we see a not particularly neat down slanting trend channel green to an all time low in april after that point there s a jump to the top of the channel and a dance along the top line through mid summer in the last few weeks the buck has drifted sideways with most of this action happening in a new trend channel purple that i am imagining menzie s post includes an excerpt from a paper by catherine mann of brandies university she concludes that a variety of factors including a long run chartist view suggest that the trend dollar depreciation has reached an end well there s the chart i guess at least i m not alone in my assessment if the dollar pops convincingly through the top of the purple channel it could rise for quite some time posted by jazzbumpa at 8 46 pm no comments labels economics money thursday market action wow the sp500 popped up to 1190 68 a new 10 day high in the opening moments then the bottom fell out as expected nothing in the 2 day long climb looked like an impulse the early stages of the next phase down certainly do gold and oil are down today as well at the end of the day look for all of this to be connected to some exogenous event in the news people get paid to make that stuff up be skeptical as weird as it seems the market moves to its own rhythms and the invisible hand belongs to fibonacci 1190 68 is within a point of 1189 78 the 786 retracement of the drop from the 8 17 intraday high of 1208 47 what s so special about 786 it s the square root of 618 the golden ratio why should that number have any significance beats me but when there is a steep retracement beyond the 618 level that is a pretty typical stopping place i only observe and report more at the end of the day it should be very interesting update not so interesting after all gold rebounded and wound up positive for the day oil gyrated and wound up slightly negative i m taking the sp500 low of 1155 47 at 12 53 to be the end of the low level impulse wave 1 that started with the early morning slide from 1190 68 since then the index has bumped its head against 1166 1167 four times and bounced back down each time this is a very messy looking wave 2 which might have ended with the last bump at 3 21 this afternoon on the 5 day interactive chart at yahoo finance macd peaked early yesterday morning made a lower peak at today s early top and has slumped badly since i ll wait till tomorrow to post a chart here evidently a lack of newsworthy events allowed stocks to slide today as if it takes good news to buoy them up and bernanke s impending speech tomorrow will be the savior of equities or not with a hurricane out there libya toppling europe extending the bans on short sales and harrisburg pa in the red this strikes me as a failure of imagination nevertheless headlines are making stocks jump quite precipitously said sal arnuk co manager of trading at themis trading however the real action will be watching bernanke tomorrow investors are looking ahead to fed chairman ben bernanke s jackson hole speech on friday in hopes that he may announce some form of monetary policy to help support the u s economy yeah well good luck with that update 2 news is what does it fer sure zemsky expects to see more big swings as long as the fear of recession hangs over the market people are trying to adjust their positions to news he said once it s clear where the economy is headed i think things will calm down posted by jazzbumpa at 11 01 am 2 comments labels self referential claptrap stock market wednesday august 24 2011 why do conservatives lie art chided me in comments here for calling steven moore a liar in the aftermath of his lying screed at the wsj i had only read enough of the liar s lies to assure myself that he was lying and pulled some damning quotes in response to art i said this i think that when you can find someone lying repeatedly and that person has a public forum it is vitally important to call him exactly what he is a liar the entire edifice of conservatism...