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otal credit market debt owed tcmdo and gross domestic product gdp nominal or gdpc1 inflation adjusted take your pick graph 1 from fred shows these data series i ve chosen nominal gdp and for reference also included the total federal debt graph 1 tcmdo gdp and total federal debt in 1950 tcmdo was about 1 3 times gdp but growing a bit more quickly by 1980 the ratio was 1 6 and by 1987 it was greater than 2 now that ratio is approaching 4 note that tcmdo is also close to 4 times greater than total public debt this is why art and i agree that private not public debt is the problem that needs to be addressed but is largely ignored linked here are art s posts with graphs of yoy growth in both factors pre 1980 and post 1980 pre 1980 their moves are similar in magnitude and pretty well coordinated post 1980 there is still some occasional similarity of motion but the coordination breaks down and debt growth is generally quite a bit higher than gdp growth the 80 s in particular stand out as being starkly different from the previous period graph 2 shows the entire data set since 1952 graph 2 yoy growth in tcmdo and gdp these observations led art to the reasonable hypothesis that output growth slowed when debt became excessive this in fact might explain the great stagnation i suggested and art accepted two corollaries to his hypothesis 1 there is a non excessive amount of debt let s call it just right 2 below the just right amount there might also be not enough actually there is a lower level hypothesis to which art s is corollary that there is a functional relationship between debt and growth in which growth is the dependent variable this is what i will explore in this post graph 3 is a scatter plot of gdp vs tcmdo yoy change for each fred quarterly data from q4 1952 through q2 2012 with a best fit straight line included graph 3 gdp vs tcmdo yoy change the relationship is quite clearly positive the r 2 value at 39 is rather low but not terrible there is quite a bit of scatter in the data note the circle of data points around the left end of the line more on that later next i divided the data by decades frex 1961 1970 this admittedly simplistic data parsing reveals that the slope and r 2 values are strongly variable over time graph 4 shows the scatter plot along with the slope and r 2 values for each decade these data values are arranged in the chart in chronological order and color matched with the corresponding data points graph 4 gdp vs tcmdo yoy change by decade i ve added a brown line connecting the dots for the first decade of this century the chronology proceeds from a cluster near the center of the graph into a clockwise circular spiral graph 5 shows how the slope and r 2 vary over time graph 5 slope and r 2 over time for gdp vs tcmdo after the 60 s the slope plummets and by the 80 s r 2 is a laughable 0 035 though the slope has remained low r 2 has since recovered to 0 38 which is near the whole data set value of 0 39 and only slightly less than the 0 40 to 0 44 of the first three decades the slope changes can be interpreted as generally less gdp bang for the tcmdo buck as the tcmdo gdp ratio increases this is totally consistent with art s hypothesis i have more to say about the gdp tcmdo relationship but this post is getting long so i ll save it for a follow up for now i ll close with a few questions 1 do you think we re on to something 2 what do you think of the methodology 3 excessive debt is suggestive but non specific how should this concept be quantized 4 how should i go at exploring corollaries 1 and 2 mentioned after graph 2 5 any thoughts on what was there about the 80 s that blew up the prior debt gdp relationship 6 is there such a thing as productive vs non productive debt and how would they be characterized i look forward to your constructive comments cross posted at angry bear posted by jazzbumpa at 12 42 pm 1 comment labels debt economics gdp tuesday october 9 2012 strategic lying as political art if you listen to randi rhodes you know she is still livid over romney being declared the winner in last week s we ll call it a debate for the nonce alas though the reason he won is that poll numbers have moved in his favor whether that bounce is robust remains to be seen but it did gain romney some sort of advantage at least in the near term randi s objection is that romney lied repeatedly and about almost everything in the process he flatly repudiated some of the major planks in his platform the destruction of medicare as we know it the 5 trillion dollar tax cut the reduction of tax share paid by high income people and an insurance plan not covering pre existing conditions stand out in that regard and these are but a few of the 27 debate lies that can easily be recognized and refuted indeed the one rare moment of lucid candor came when he eagerly gleefully announced that he would send big bird to the unemployment line in order to avoid borrowing money from china big npr whoop to put this in perspective for cy 2012 the federal government via the corp for public broadcasting is contributing 26 65 million in support of pbs or 0 0007 of total federal expenditures 3 77 trillion for 2012 in fact the entire federal contribution to cpb is 445 2 million or 0 0118 of total expenditures that s sure going to help balance 5 trillion in tax cuts over ten years cpb data from wikipedia current expenditure data from the st louis fed romney isn t lying about our creditor position with china but he was certainly misleading according to fox news china it turns out holds less than 8 percent of the money our government has borrowed over the years ok i get where randi is coming from to have a totally unprincipled opportunist in charge of running the world s greatest super power is not a recipe for any kind of enduring success either for the u s a specifically or for the world at large there are many historical examples one could cite but we really needn t go back any further than the compassionate conservatism of unprosecuted war criminal and would be social security privatizer george w bush to make the point but what randi refuses to acknowledge is that what we witnessed last week was not a debate by any recognizable definition of the term lying will get you disqualified in a real debate right this was political theater and what is theater but staged fiction and there is nothing unusual here i ve been saying for years that all republicans do is lie and then lie about their lies i might have gotten that phrase from randi the memory is foggy here is a four year old exposé of some of romney s shape shifting h t to dave brockington at lgm a more insidious kind of lie is simply denying reality as characterized by birtherism new deal and global warming denialism and friday s epidemic of conspiracy theories surrounding the latest favorable jobs report but i digress here is my point brad delong points us to a 1984 fay joyce article in the n y times uncovered by michael moore it turns out that lying during a debate is a time honored republican strategy even 28 years ago when there was some chance of the main stream media doing actual journalism they were confident in their lying strategy the republicans are unabashed in their discussion of their ability to use the television medium you can say anything you want during a debate and 80 million people hear it observed peter teeley press secretary to vice president bush if reporters then document that a candidate spoke untruthfully so what maybe 200 people read it or 2 000 or 20 000 he said now they have honed it into an art form and it s worth remembering the one reason that always accounts for every person s lie their agenda is not compatible with the truth posted by jazzbumpa at 10 04 pm 1 comment labels can you believe this shit conservative shark jumping criticism damned liars history republican wrong we are so screwed saturday october 6 2012 james bullard is a liar it took a little bit of effort to keep the words god damned out of the title tim duy explains my comment two thoughts 1 the fed totally abrogates its dual mandate with its intense focus on inflation their actions over recent years actually decades makes it clear they have absolutely no concern for unemployment 2 it s time to drop disingenuous from the lexicon if the man is a liar he s a liar and deserves to be revealed as such posted by jazzbumpa at 10 37 am no comments labels can you believe this shit criticism current events damned liars economics we are so screwed thursday september 27 2012 nfl republicanism i ve long felt that the nfl is the most republican organization on the face of the earth it s an old rich white guy s play ground and as close to medievalism as we have until the next republican presidency the nfl lockout of the officials simply confirmed what we should already have known the owners don t give a hirsute rodent s hindquarters about player safety the integrity of the game or getting anything right they wanted to engage in union busting simply because they can or so they thought in my jaundiced opinion the regular nfl refs are teh suxxor but that doesn t mean things couldn t get a whole lot worse and they did when they brought in cast offs from the lingerie league but there are limits if you re a big enough ass hole to go look for them my lovely wife pegged this on monday night when the packers got shafted by a cluster phung of bad calls culminating in the now infamous toucherception picture found on facebook this was beyond even what wisconsin rethugs like scott walker could stomach i find that irony to be quite tasty it all comes down to who s ox is being gored everyone in wi and even some in mi loves them some packers even those inclined to break unions and roll us back to the dark ages that s what the lw figured out right on the spot it was all over when green bay got the shaft you do not mess with the packers posted by jazzbumpa at 10 14 am 6 comments labels can you believe 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