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Text of the page (random words):
day january 4 2024 fiscal narratives for us inflation an essay on substack interpreting us inflation history via fiscal theory prepared as comments for a session at the aea meetings posted by john h cochrane at 10 08 pm 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commentary economists fiscal theory inflation interesting papers monetary policy sunday december 31 2023 writing lesson comment on tom friedman don t piss people off unless you have to over at substack posted by john h cochrane at 11 34 pm 4 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commentary politics and economics writing friday december 29 2023 argue honestly in the claudine gay affair post over at substack firing gay over plagiarism will not fix harvard posted by john h cochrane at 11 04 pm 8 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels academic freedom cancel culture commentary politics and economics thursday december 28 2023 conti on the future of universities a new post over at substack a nice essay by greg conti on the future of universities posted by john h cochrane at 1 11 pm 5 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels academic freedom commentary politics and economics wednesday december 27 2023 a kind word for the fed this is my first post over at substack follow me here and let me know if it isn t working the post is in praise of interest on reserves and abundant reserves with of course some suggestions for improvements posted by john h cochrane at 9 43 pm 6 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commentary inflation monetary policy thesis topics wednesday december 20 2023 politics by law colorado s supreme court kicks trump off the ballot wsj i wrote earlier forecasting constitutional crisis with next election legal chaos is starting right on schedule summary both sides are casting their opponents as illegitimate that justifies profound norm breaking behavior political battles are being fought in the courts so control of the courts and the judicial system now becomes vital to political success when you can t afford to lose an election you do anything to win scorched earth rules the day this affair offers a catch 22 to the supreme court as a partisan chess move you can t help but admire it the case is weak as even the judges voting for it admit the election is coming up fast there are many pending state cases to keep trump off the ballot the supreme court surely does not want to see elections more and more decided by courts this will likely force the court to act read more posted by john h cochrane at 9 33 pm 67 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commentary politics and economics sunday december 17 2023 bond risk premiums certainty found and lost again this is a second post from a set of comments i gave at the nber asset pricing conference in early november at stanford conference agenda here my full slides here first post here on new keynesian models i commented on downward nominal rigidities and bond premia by françois gourio and phuong ngo the paper was about bond premiums commenting made me realize that i thought i understood the issue and now i realize i don t at all understanding term premiums still seems a fruitful area of research after all these years i thought i understood risk premiums the term premium question is do you earn more money on average holding long term bonds or short term bonds related is the yield curve on average upward or downward sloping should an investor hold long or short term bonds read more posted by john h cochrane at 10 24 pm 16 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels academic articles economists finance inflation interesting papers monetary policy teaching thesis topics friday december 15 2023 time for a new theory of regulation what s the basic story of economic regulation econ 101 courses repeat the benevolent dictator theory of regulation there is a market failure natural monopoly externality or asymmetric information benevolent regulators craft optimal restrictions to restore market order in political life consumer protection is often cited though it doesn t fit that economic structure then chicago school scholars such as george stigler looked at how regulations actually operated they found regulatory capture businesses get cozy with regulators and bit by bit regulations end up largely keeping competition down and prices up to benefit existing businesses we are i think seeing round three and an opportunity for a fundamentally new basic view of how regulation operates today the latest news item to prod this thought is fcc commissioner brendan carr s scathing dissent on the fcc s decision to cancel 885 million contract to starlink via twitter x read more posted by john h cochrane at 11 20 am 22 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commentary cronyism politics and economics regulation wednesday december 13 2023 a vision for the university of pennsylvania a group of faculty at penn have written a vision for a new future of the university of pennsylvania at https pennforward com they encourage signatures even if you re not associated with penn i signed big picture universities stand at a crossroads do universities choose pursuit of knowledge the robust open and uncomfortable debate that requires excellence and meritocracy even if as in the past that has meant admitting socially disfavored groups or do universities exist to advance advocate for and inculcate a particular political agenda choose returning to the former will require structural changes and founding documents are an important part of that rebuilding effort for example penn and stanford are searching for new presidents a joint statement by board and president that this document will guide rebuilding efforts could be quite useful in guiding that search and the new presidents house cleaning there is some danger in excerpting such a document but here are a few tasty morsels principles penn s sole aim going forward will be to foster excellence in research and education specifics read more posted by john h cochrane at 9 27 am 23 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels academic freedom cancel culture commentary freedom friday december 8 2023 sociology meetings when jukka savolainen wrote about it in the wall street journal i couldn t quite believe it so i had to go look indeed on the website of the american sociological association describing its 2024 annual meeting we have the official theme of the meeting sociology as a form of liberatory praxis an effort to not only understand structural inequities but to intervene in socio political struggles to intervene political struggles read more posted by john h cochrane at 11 18 pm 7 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels academic freedom cancel culture commentary politics and economics new keynesian models a puzzle of scientific sociology this post is from a set of comments i gave at the nber asset pricing conference in early november at stanford conference agenda here my full slides here there was video but sadly i took too long to write this post and the nber took down the conference video i was asked to comment on downward nominal rigidities and bond premia by françois gourio and phuong ngo it s a very nice clean paper so all i could think to do as discussant is praise it then move on to bigger issues these are really comments about whole literatures not about one paper one can admire the play but complain about the game the paper implements a version of bob lucas 1973 international evidence observation prices are less sticky in high inflation countries the phillips curve more vertical output is less affected by inflation the calvo fairy visits every night in argentina to lucas high inflation comes with variable inflation so people understand that price changes are mostly aggregate not relative prices and ignore them gourio and ngo use a new keynesian model with downwardly sticky prices and wages to express the idea when inflation is low we re more often in the more sticky regime they use this idea in a model of bond risk premia times of low inflation lead to more correlation of inflation and output and so a different correlation of nominal bond returns with the discount factor and a different term premium i made two points first about bond premiums and second about new keynesian models only the latter for this post this paper like hundreds before it adds a few ingredients on top of a standard textbook new keynesian model but that textbook model has deep structural problems there are known ways to fix the problems yet we continually build on the standard model rather than incorporate known ways or find new ways to fix its underlying problems problem 1 the sign is wrong or at least unconventional read more posted by john h cochrane at 5 01 pm 8 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels academic articles economists fiscal theory inflation interesting papers monetary policy thesis topics videos wednesday december 6 2023 the income tax paradox the supreme court is hearing a case with profound implications for the income tax wsj editorial here and good commentary from ilya shapiro here this issue is naturally contorted into legalisms what the heck does apportioned mean how is income defined legally i won t wade into that what are the economic issues what s the right thing to do here leaving aside legalisms read more posted by john h cochrane at 6 08 pm 44 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commentary taxes monday december 4 2023 ftpl news discount and economist list just in time for the holidays the perfect stocking stuffer if you have really big stockings 30 discount on fiscal theory of the price level until june 30 2024 and fiscal theory makes the economist s list of best books for 2023 posted by john h cochrane at 10 22 am 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels academic articles economists fiscal theory inflation macro monetary policy thesis topics friday november 24 2023 pro dollarization with president milei s election in argentina dollarization is suddenly on the table i m for it here s why read more posted by john h cochrane at 9 24 pm 24 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commentary growth inflation politics and economics trade tuesday november 21 2023 sunstein redefines liberal cass sunstein has a lovely new york times essay that tries to give us back the word liberal i hope it works read more posted by john h cochrane at 10 31 pm 37 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commentary politics and economics thursday november 16 2023 ftpl at sea sunday nov 19 6 7 pm i will be giving the association lecture at the southern economics association conference in new orleans the topic naturally is the fiscal theory of the price level if you re curious and will be at the conference stop by i now have a pretty good condensed talk about fiscal theory posted by john h cochrane at 10 39 pm 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commentary fiscal theory inflation monetary policy sunday november 5 2023 lukianoff and schlott on cancellation last week i was honored to be moderator for a discussion with greg lukianoff and rikki schlott on their new book canceling the american mind at the commonwealth club of san francisco link here if the embed above doesn t work here are my questions i shared them with greg and rickki ahead of time so the actual questions are a bit shorter but this may give you some interesting background and i think they re good questions to ponder in general read more posted by john h cochrane at 12 49 pm 8 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels academic freedom commentary freedom politics and economics talks videos older posts home subscribe to posts atom about me and this blog john h cochrane this is a blog of news views and commentary from a humorous free market point of view after one too many rants at the dinner table my kids called me the grumpy economist and hence this blog and its title in real life i m a senior fellow of the hoover institution at stanford i was formerly a professor at the university of chicago booth school of business i m also an adjunct scholar of the cato institute i m not really grumpy by the way any opinions i express are mine alone and do not represent the position of the hoover institution or stanford university view my complete 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