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description=15 posts published by Lars Syll during January 2015;

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av en slags grabbig elitism men jag vet förstås inte om det är annorlunda i andra discipliner det är också svårt att veta vad som är hönan och ägget sexism frodas ofta i manligt dominerade miljöer men jag tycker vi självkritiskt bör reflektera över detta för att minska risken att kvinnor avskräcks från att studera och forska i nationalekonomi robert östling och hur var det nu med det där så kallade nobelpriset i ekonomi nästan 80 personer har fått det hur många är kvinnor svar 1 share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky nairu more religion than science 26 jan 2015 at 13 58 posted in economics 12 comments in an interesting comment on a recent attempt at measuring nairu in the u s matias vernengo notes that nairu is basically measured as an average of actual unemployment and that a fortiori nairu is not an attractor around which the actual unemployment level fluctuates it is an average of the actual rate which is essentially another way of writing the same data it is the actual unemployment rate that determines the natural one and if unemployment rates were reduced sufficiently with expansionary policies the natural being an average would also come down economics is not a serious science nairu has been the subject of much heated discussion and debate lately many politicians and economists subscribe to the nairu story and its policy implication that attempts to promote full employment is doomed to fail since governments and central banks can t push unemployment below the critical nairu threshold without causing harmful runaway inflation one of the main problems with nairu is that if it essentially seen as a timeless long run equilibrium attractor to which actual unemployment allegedly has to adjust then if that equilibrium is itself changing and in ways that depend on the process of getting to the equilibrium well then we can t really be sure what that equlibrium will be without contextualizing unemployment in real historical time and when we do we will see how seriously wrong we go if we omit demand from the analysis demand policy has long run effects and matters also for structural unemployment and governments and central banks can t just look the other way and legitimize their passivity re unemployment by refering to nairu nairu does not hold water simply because it does not exist and to base economic policy on such a weak theoretical and empirical construct is nothing short of writing out a prescription for self inflicted economic havoc when the nrh the natural rate hypothesis or as it is often called today the nairu theory was first proposed friedman assumed that expectations are adaptive the combination of adaptive expectations and the nrh led to a theory where variations in the unemployment rate are caused primarily by incorrect expectations in this theory households and firms forecast price inflation and their forecast determines which phillips curve prevails in the period expected price inflation feeds into wages and through mark ups into realised inflation according to the nrh unemployment differs from its natural rate only if expected inflation differs from actual inflation if expectations are rational we should see as many quarters when inflation is above expected inflation as quarters when it is below expected inflation that suggests the following test of the nrh because a decade contains 40 quarters the probability that average expected inflation over a decade will be different from naverage actual inflation should be small if the nrh and rational expectations are both true simultaneously a plot of decade averages of inflation against unemployment should reveal a vertical line at the natural rate of unemployment this prediction fails dramatically there is no tendency for the points to lie around a vertical line and if anything the long run phillips curve revealed by this chart is upward sloping and closer to being horizontal than vertical since it is unlikely that expectations are systematically biased over decades i conclude that the nrh is false defenders of the natural rate hypothesis might choose to respond to these empirical findings by arguing that the natural rate of unemployment is time varying but i am unaware of any theory which provides us in advance with an explanation of how the natural rate of unemployment varies over time in the absence of such a theory the nrh has no predictive content a theory like this which cannot be falsified by any set of observations is closer to religion than science roger farmer share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky greece the true cost of austerity 25 jan 2015 at 20 12 posted in economics 3 comments share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky who is bullshiting who here 25 jan 2015 at 15 48 posted in politics society 11 comments larry wasserman statistics professor at carnegie mellon university wrote a while ago on deborah mayo s blog error statistics philosophy first i now think franken was wrong cnn and network news have a strong liberal bias especially on economic issues fox has an obvious right wing and anti atheist bias at least fox has some libertarians on the payroll and this does matter because people believe what they see on tv and what they read in the ny times paul krugman s socialist bullshit parading as economics has brainwashed millions of americans so media bias is much more than who makes better hummus oh dear oh dear i ve been following krugman s blog for years how could i miss that he was not actually an economist but a bullshiting socialist let s see what a somewhat more level headed statistics professor andrew gelman has to say on his colleague s to say the least somewhat bizarre statement larry also writes of paul krugman s socialist bullshit parading as economics that s another example of defining away the problem i think i d prefer to let paul krugman or on the other side greg mankiw define his approach for better or worse i think it s ridiculous to describe what krugman or mankiw does as x parading as economics for any x sorry but what krugman and mankiw do is economics they re leading economists and if you don t like what they do fine but that just means there s some aspect of economics that you don t like it s silly to restrict economics to just the stuff you like just to shift sideways for a moment i hate the so called fisher randomization test and i also can t stand the inverse gamma 0 001 0 001 prior distribution but i recognize that these are part of statistics they re just statistical methods that i don t like for good reasons i m not saying that my dislike of these methods or larry s dislike of krugman s economics is merely a matter of taste we have good reasons for our attitudes but no we don t have the authority to rule that a topic is not part of economics or not part of statistics just because we don t like it oddly enough i don t really have a problem with someone describing krugman s or mankiw s writing as bullshit even though i don t personally agree with this characterization at least not most of the time as with the attempt to define it away by saying it is parading as economics krugman s and mankiw s writing may be bullshit but it definitely is economics no parading about that true andrew let s have no parading wasserman s shameless gibberish is one of the most viciously misleading bullshit i ve come across for a long time america 25 jan 2015 at 15 17 posted in varia comments off on america absolutely fabulous barry eichengreen hall of mirrors 24 jan 2015 at 17 04 posted in economics comments off on barry eichengreen hall of mirrors share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky layers of light 24 jan 2015 at 12 12 posted in varia comments off on layers of light nils landgren trombone esbjörn svensson piano it breaks my heart every time i play your music and i m reminded you re no longer with us thank goodness your music lives on esbjörn ayn rand a psychopath and amateurish philosophizer 23 jan 2015 at 18 33 posted in politics society 3 comments now i don t care to discuss the alleged complaints american indians have against this country i believe with good reason the most unsympathetic hollywood portrayal of indians and what they did to the white man they had no right to a country merely because they were born here and then acted like savages the white man did not conquer this country since the indians did not have the concept of property or property rights they didn t have a settled society they had predominantly nomadic tribal cultures they didn t have rights to the land and there was no reason for anyone to grant them rights that they had not conceived of and were not using what were they fighting for in opposing the white man on this continent for their wish to continue a primitive existence for their right to keep part of the earth untouched to keep everybody out so they could live like animals or cavemen any european who brought with him an element of civilization had the right to take over this continent and it s great that some of them did the racist indians today those who condemn america do not respect individual rights ayn rand address to the graduating class of the united states military academy at west point 1974 it s sickening to read this gobsmacking trash but it s perhaps even more sickening that people like alan greenspan consider rand som kind of intellectual hero alan greenspan isn t just a bad economist he s a bad person what else can one think of a person that considers ayn rand with the ugliest psychopathic philosophy the postwar world has produced one of the great thinkers of the 20th century a person that even co edited a book with her maintaining that unregulated capitalism is a superlatively moral system a person that in his memoirs tries to reduce his admiration for rand to a youthful indiscretion but who actually still today can t be described as anything else than a loyal randian disciple ayn rand and her objectivist philosophy has more disciples than greenspan but as hilary putnam rightfully noticed in the collapse of the fact value dichotomy harvard university press 2002 it s doubtful if it even qualifies as a real philosophy it cannot be the case that the only universally valid norm refers solely to discourse it is after all possible for someone to recognize truth telling as a binding norm while otherwise being guided solely by enlightened egoism this is indeed the way of life that was recommended by the influential if amateurish philosophizer i cannot call her a philosopher ayn rand but such a person can violate the spirit if not the letter of the principle of communicative action at every turn after all communicative action is contrasted with manipulation and as such a person can manipulate people without violating the maxims of sincerity truth telling and saying only what one believes to be rationally warranted ayn rand s capitalist heroes manipulated people all the time even if she didn t consider it manipulation via their control of capital for example indeed the person who says do what i want or i ll shoot you need not be violating any maxim concerned solely with discourse but it would be a mistake to use such examples as objections to habermasian discourse ethics in her diary from 1928 ayn rand approvingly quotes a statement made by a william edward hickman what is good for me is right rand is enthusiastic and writes the best and strongest expression of a real man s psychology i have heard later she models one of her heros danny renahan after hickman renahan is portrayed as born with a wonderful free light consciousness resulting from the absolute lack of social instinct or herd feeling he does not understand because he has no organ for understanding the necessity meaning or importance of other people other people do not exist for him and he does not understand why they should who was this hickman that so inspired rand hickman was a notorious bank robber child kidnapper and mass murderer one of the most hated and heinous criminals in u s history how people like alan greenspan and paul ryan not to mention all modern day objectivist disciples can consider ayn rand one of the greatest thinkers of the 20th century is really beyond comprehension it s sickening share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the new oxfam report on inequality 22 jan 2015 at 14 33 posted in economics politics society comments off on the new oxfam report on inequality share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts arbetslöshetssiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation guarantee nothing model reification in statistics and econometrics why democracy outperforms dictatorship comments policy i like comments follow netiquette comments especially anonymous ones with pseudo argumentations abusive language or irrelevant links will not be posted and please remember being a full time professor leaves only limited time to respond to comments recent comments jan wiklund on arbetslöshetssiffran som styr jan milch on arbetslöshetssiffran som styr 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