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Text of the page (random words):
e following drawbacks in practice if we assume a sample of 100 people where they can be rated uniquely on a scale from 1 to 100 then when applying the 37 rule on average 37 additional people need to be interviewed or bonked to find the next best beyond the best found in the initial 37 people for an average total of 74 people being considered from the 100 on average the best person found has rank 82 where 100 is the best on the scale the 37 rule finds the best person 37 of the time but averaging the success out over the remaining 63 of choices lowers the result by about 20 todd decided to explore other decision rules that performed better than the 37 rule on some criteria and more closely match with our observed behaviours for finding a mate it is unlikely that anyone will have the time and emotional energy to engage with 37 of all their potential mates which could easily run into the thousands todd s computer models found that if you engaged 12 people from a mating population of 1000 then took the next best you are highly likely to end up with someone in the top 25 of the population i cannot quite tell from todd s graph referring to this result as to how many people must be engaged in total but seemingly around 30 or so 50 at the outside so this was the genesis of the 12 bonk rule and i will read crisswell s book a bit closer to see if she has teased out any further details or conclusions a very quick search of the internet on the topic of the number of sexual partners seemed to indicate that for western men and women 12 sexual partners is on the high side for most of them actually more like half of that after discarding outliers a further potential glitch in the 12 bonk rule is that it assumes when you have found your post 12 bonk lover that he or she will accept your overtures and of course you cannot be certain of that i am sure that someone is working on the mathematics of unrequited love posted by unknown at 1 53 am 20 comments labels choice probability wednesday february 6 2013 100 000th visitor just a short note to say that the number of visitors to this blog just passed 100 000 i had a few posts in 2007 a few more in 2008 and then picked up from there for almost 300 by now i have been mostly absent of late meaning the last year of so for personal reasons but i hope to pick up again here this year thank you for all the visits posted by unknown at 9 14 pm 4 comments labels blogging monday may 28 2012 some more satellite risks back in 2009 i posted on the risk of gps satellite positioning system degrading over the next few years both in terms of coverage and accuracy due a decrease in the number of operational satellites this risk was the main finding of an audit performed by the government accountability office gao where monte carlo simulations predicted that the number of operational satellites would fall below the threshold required to provide positioning at agreed service levels in short too many satellites that were approaching or had passed their expected operational life were being relied on to continue functioning in the absence of replacements engineers know that satellites have very finite operational lifetimes and at some point will simply stop working and start drifting and one significant satellite did just that last month as reported by the economist for example the satellite in question was envisat one without gps responsibilities thankfully launched in 2002 to provide a wide range of environmental data which it has delivered handsomely in the terabyte range it is a critical primary source of data for scientists providing continuous observations until contact was lost last month the european space agency has formally announced that the mission of envisat has been completed and successfully so after celebrating it s tenth year of operation when only five were expected both from an engineering and funding perspective so envisat was living on borrowed time five years of it or 100 additional mission time as the gao report on the gps satellite constellation was asserting the economist article goes on to name some culprits in the case of envisat with governments being allocated the lion s share due to lack of funding both nasa and esa are unwilling to sure up their earth observation programs without additional government guarantees there is another risk beyond the loss of service provided by envisat or gps satellites and that is additional space debris created by these satellites once they stop functioning it is estimated that envisat will orbit the earth for the next 150 years before being drawn down into its atmosphere during this time it will be at risk from colliding with other existing space debris breaking into smaller pieces upon impact producing even finer debris this is known as the kessler syndrome proposed by nasa scientist donald j kessler in 1978 who commented on the envisat demise as follows it seems ironic that a satellite intended to monitor the earth s environment is at risk from the space environment and is likely to become a major contributor to the debris environment orbital debris and the collisions that may result from its presence are a significant risk for nasa there is a 180 page report on this topic which apart from the specific subject matter contains many useful risk principles and guidelines posted by unknown at 5 51 am 8 comments labels gps satellites tuesday may 22 2012 chrome headed to be 1 browser business insider recently reported that chrome is now the number 1 or near number one browser of choice and its popularity has come as the expense of ie as shown in the chart below the data set is based on statistics collected by statcounter and is probably not reliable for specific figures but sufficiently reliable for showing trends in this case that chrome is stealing market share mainly from ie and somewhat from firefox in any case a significant amount of internet traffic is now being funneled through the chrome security model the previous browser prediction that i posted on that firefox would overtake ie by christmas 2012 agrees quite well with the data set above posted by unknown at 1 32 am 1 comments labels browser chrome friday october 7 2011 crypto from tesco you can now order the new block cipher companion book from tesco s just published this month i have seen an earlier draft and the text is very detailed and comprehensive as you would expect from authors of this caliber posted by unknown at 11 57 am 4 comments labels books cryptography tuesday october 4 2011 xobni becomes smartr i recently posted about the reads on my scribd collection and one of the most frequently read is the master s thesis by the founder of xobni inbox spelt backwards called how to organize email there is a new version of this software called smartr for gmail and you can watch a video on its features posted by unknown at 8 29 am 2 comments labels email sunday october 2 2011 yoda pie chart there is no try love it from flowing data posted by unknown at 3 31 pm 2 comments labels star wars visualization 150 000 reads of my scribd documents i have uploaded about 200 documents to scribd over the last few years and the number of reads has just passed 150 000 you can see the categories here the top 5 documents each with over 3000 reads each are a data centric security model almost 6 000 reads the core components of the entrust pki v5 ba it security awareness presentation how to organize email how much is enough a risk management approach to computer security posted by unknown at 9 15 am 2 comments labels scribd thursday september 29 2011 the other binomial expansion from this collection of creative exam answers posted by unknown at 4 12 pm 2 comments labels humour monday september 26 2011 sha post as spam magnet don t ask me why but a lot of spam has accrued and keeps accruing at this may 2009 post on sha 1 apart from the common penis enlargement references some of the other spam is quite long and seems to be playing on some quirk of seo fine posted by unknown at 3 47 pm 2 comments labels spam sunday september 25 2011 fibonacci pigeons this just made me laugh posted by unknown at 8 49 am 56 comments labels fibonnaci humour thursday september 22 2011 these aren t the key management systems you are looking for this is a nice presentation on enterprise key management issues from anthony stieber given at the 2nd ieee kms 2010 key management summit the main message is that kms is tricky and don t roll your own by the way if you are looking for examples of powerpoint that breaks all the rules for good presentations then you will find them here also there is a very polished and informative presentation from chris kostick of e y on an enterprise key management maturity model and below is a comprehensive diagram on the life cycle management of keys posted by unknown at 8 15 am 2 comments labels cryptography ieee key management powerpoint presentation star wars liability for risk decisions i am currently in between positions somewhat happily and are casting my net of interest a bit wider than my traditional roles in it security and risk one position that caught my eye from a global reinsurer in town was the role of earthquake expert within their natural catastrophe department or nat cat in insurance lingo i really don t have any specific background in this area but i sometimes entertain the idea that i can transfer hard learnt crypto math skills into a numerate role like this one which calls for extensive modeling and prediction you also think that this might be a nice and cozy niche area to ply your trade as a specialist holding something of a privileged position well i was disabused of any such notion this week when i read this week of six italian scientists and a former government official are being put on trial for the alleged manslaughter of the 309 people who died in the 2009 l aquila earthquake in italy the seven defendants were members of a government panel called the serious risks commission seriously who were asked to give an opinion or risk statement on the likelihood that l aquila would be struck by a major earthquake based on an analysis of the smaller tremors that the city was experiencing over the previous few months the panel verdict delivered in march stated that there was no reason to believe that a series of low level tremors was a precursor to a larger event a week later the city suffered an earthquake of magnitude 6 3 on the richter scale denoting a strong quake the crux of the case against the scientists is that they did not predict the strong quake coming to l aquila to allow a proper evacuation of its inhabitants the defense rebuttal is simply that such a prediction is impossible and they cannot be held accountable for this unreasonable expectation the scientists cannot be expected to function as a reliable advanced warning system the international scientific community has weighed in to support the defendants with a one page letter from the american association for the advancement of science which supported the scientists by saying that there is no reliable scientific process for earthquake prediction and they should not be treated as criminals for adhering to the accepted practices of their field recently people were evacuated from new york city as precaution to the impact of hurricane irene the hurricane passed by new york causing far less extensive damage than expected and yet there were still complaints from residents about being asked to leave their homes unnecessarily it seems that authorities cannot win in these matters unless they can predict the future accurately posted by unknown at 7 10 am 0 comments labels natural catastrophe predictions risk management wednesday september 14 2011 pagerank increment for no tricks every now and again i run this blog through the free website grader tool which measures your site on a variety of criteria hoping to lure you for a more thorough paid analysis the tool used to report a pagerank value and no tricks seemed to be stuck at 3 for quite a few years the site now uses there own page ranking metric which reported a value higher than 3 i was overjoyed and eagerly confirmed that the true pagerank metric had also increased from 3 to 4 representing some form of exponential improvement since the scale is logarithmic i can now claim that the no tricks site has gone from being of low importance to being of medium importance fine i ll take it incidentally i wrote a short introduction to the mathematics of pagerank a few years back with a security spin posted by unknown at 6 38 pm 54 comments labels blogging pagerank older posts home subscribe to posts atom about me unknown view my complete profile quick links home luke o connor bio top posts favourite posts scribd collections the no tricks name subscribe posts atom posts all comments atom all comments all posts on aes and a5 1 on passwords on the birthday paradox on entropy with freemind outlines search this blog blog archive 2013 3 april 2 some mindmaps online the 12 bonk rule february 1 2012 2 may 2 2011 32 october 4 september 13 august 5 june 2 may 1 april 2 march 4 january 1 2010 116 december 7 october 1 september 7 august 14 june 1 may 38 april 7 march 15 february 24 january 2 2009 111 december 9 november 26 october 3 september 6 august 3 july 3 june 13 may 9 april 11 march 9 february 5 january 14 2008 25 december 7 november 3 october 2 august 3 july 3 june 3 may 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 2007 2 october 1 september 1 lijit search lijit search labels a5 1 7 aes 9 analysis 3 anonymity 7 av 4 awareness 3 biometric 2 birthday paradox 5 black swan 11 block cipher 1 blogging 15 books 5 border search 1 bp 1 browser 4 bruce 3 brute force 2 buffer overflow 1 business insider 1 business models 1 captcha 2 certificates 1 charting 2 choice 1 chrome 1 ciso 1 cloud computing 11 coincidences 2 cold boot 2 conficker 4 controls 1 course 2 cryptography 10 data 5 data breach 4 data center 1 data centric security 4 ddos 1 des 1 dns 3 dod 1 education 2 elliptic curves 1 email 2 encrypted search 4 encryption 14 enisa 3 entropy 7 estimation 1 excel 2 facebook 4 factoring 3 faraday 2 fault injection 2 fibonnaci 1 firefox 1 framework 1 freemind 6 fsa 1 fud 2 gambling 1 games 1 google 6 gps 3 gpu 1 green it 1 gsm 3 half life 2 hashing 2 hp 1 humour 6 ibm 6 icann 2 ie 2 ieee 1 iep 2 infographic 3 interesting 4 ipad 1 iphone 1 isaca 2 it 1 it risk 3 key lengths 3 key management 1 koobface 1 language 1 long tail 3 lottery 1 malware 4 metrics 1 microsoft 5 mind mapping 6 natural catastrophe 2 new school of information security 1 nist 3 nodexl 1 nsa 1 one way hash arguments 1 online transactions 1 open source 2 owasp 3 p2p 1 pagerank 3 passwords 28 phishing 1 pki 2 policy 1 power laws 4 powerpoint 2 predictions 2 presentation 6 prezi 1 privacy 5 probability 4 project risk 1 quantitative 2 quantum computing 2 quantum cryptography 1 r programming language 1 rainbow tables 4 random graph theory 1 randomness 5 rc4 2 re ...