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debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman friday may 31 2013 undertow new uses of debt whether public or private give a boost to spending a boost that increases employment the equal and opposite reaction would be to pay down debt this reduces spending it creates a drag on the economy an undertow it reduces employment but we don t normally repay debt not before we ve borrowed more anyway so we keep getting new boosts from the use of credit or from the increases in debt i mean and the undertow created by payback is minimal but debt accumulates and as debt accumulates the undertow gets bigger the cost of a growing debt makes the economy sluggish increases in debt do not boost a sluggish economy as they do an economy with little debt each new increase in debt adds to the accumulation in order to compensate for the growing undertow created by accumulating debt new increases in debt must grow larger larger increases aggravate the problem making the undertow worse so that it takes a larger addition to debt to create the same little boost posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments thursday may 30 2013 instruments of liability a thorn by any other name would prick no less jim writes i noticed that tcmdo no longer means total credit market debt owed it now means all credit market instruments here are the total blue and federal red instruments of liability on a log scale graph 1 showing a remarkable swelling of government debt between 1974 and 2001 the blue line shows total credit market debt instruments of liability which includes the federal portion so some of the up going of the blue line can be attributed to federal nonetheless private and other non federal debt continued to increase during those years that s the reason federal debt growth in those years was not as successful as the federal debt growth of the fdr years in creating conditions for an economic boom to follow you may have to read the two previous posts for this one to make sense posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday may 29 2013 more cowbell the first take of the session begins soon after the recording seems to be going well but the band stops playing after a few moments because the cowbell part is rather loud and distracting dickinson to the surprise of most of the band asks for a little more cowbell wikipedia government debt is like cowbell loud and distracting yesterday i said if your plan is to fix the economy by expanding government spending well your plan has already been tried it didn t work yesterday s post reminded me of an old one i did i m repeating part of it here to get the effect be sure to move your mouse on and off the graph a few times we tried stimulus big time we have been trying it since reagan since before reagan even all the while we ve been badmouthing government debt sure but all the while we have been expanding government debt too to stimulate growth graph 1 graph 1 shows the gross federal debt in billions of dollars after world war ii the trend line is basically flat until oh 1970 or so after that the federal debt just goes up and up and up that big pink triangle cowbell there on the hover graph all of it was stimulus loud and distracting not the problem and not the solution posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments tuesday may 28 2013 fred federal spending as a of gdp blue and federal deficits as a of federal spending red graph 1 federal spending as a of gdp blue and federal deficits as a of federal spending red click graph for fred source page in the green circle federal spending as a percent of gdp and federal deficits as a percent of federal spending both high for 15 years beginning with reagan if your plan is to fix the economy by expanding government spending well your plan has already been tried it didn t work why didn t it work to be blunt it didn t work because we didn t have a depression in those years a depression would have wiped out a lot of private debt while the government spending was pumping money into the economy that didn t happen instead the private sector took every new dollar of government money and diced it up into many more dollars of private lending and debt instead of falling private debt increased of course we don t have to have a depression to minimize the growth of debt it can be accomplished by policy but it can not be accomplished by policy until policymakers decide this is the right thing to do and in order to convince the policymakers i must first convince you posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments monday may 27 2013 the cost push problem if you don t define the problem correctly you probably won t figure out the right solution mike the mad biologist posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments sunday may 26 2013 mish mish we brought her home yesterday morning 17 weeks old 42 pounds likes slippers good name for a dog isn t it posted by the arthurian at 9 02 am 3 comments illicit krugman the new jerk times stops in the middle of the 11th article to tell me i ve reached the limit of 10 free articles a month but i m reading paul krugman s the mythical 70s and i want to read it all so on the firefox menu i hover over the web developer menu item until the submenu pops up and then click on page source to see the html or whatever you call it i copy a good chunk and paste it into the blog editor presto i ve got the whole krugman post and presto again i ve reduced it to focus your eyes on what i found in that post may 19 2013 8 46 am the mythical 70s in elite mythology the origins of the crisis of the 70s like the supposed origins of our current crisis lay in excess too much debt too much coddling of those slovenly proles via a strong welfare state the suffering of 1979 82 was necessary payback none of that is remotely true what we did have was a wage price spiral workers demanding large wage increases those were the days when workers actually could make demands because they expected lots of inflation firms raising prices because of rising costs all exacerbated by big oil shocks it was mainly a case of self fulfilling expectations and the problem was to break the cycle so why did we need a terrible recession not to pay for our past sins but simply as a way to cool the action was there a better way ideally we should have been able to get all the relevant parties in a room and say look this inflation has to stop you workers reduce your wage demands you businesses cancel your price increases and for our part we agree to stop printing money so the whole thing is over that way you d get price stability without the recession none of that is remotely true well some of it maybe benefit of the doubt wages and prices were going up you could call that a wage price spiral and it was exacerbated by oil and perhaps it became a case of self fulfilling expectations and god knows people suck the dick of expectations to this day because of it but you see it didn t start with expectations it didn t start with the wage price spiral and it didn t start with oil it started with rising financial costs posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments saturday may 25 2013 clair brown periods of economic growth traditionally are characterized by greater equality of classes every once in a while something just strikes you and inexplicably you like it clair brown s american standards of living 1918 1988 struck me that way after googling saving by quintile turned up the book see yesterday s post i went back and started reading from the beginning got all the way to page six before i had to stop and write this new post here s the part that did me in periods of economic growth traditionally are characterized by greater equality of classes consequently the growth in real expenditures across classes deviates from the growth in total output as families in a lower class experience greater growth in consumption than families in a higher class since government policies heavily influence total output and relative incomes and because each class will try to maintain its relative position shifts in income inequality tend to have a cyclical nature as a class that loses out relatively in one period tries to improve its position in the next period a period of increasing inequality usually follows a period of decreasing inequality now if somebody had written that for wikipedia there would be a comment attached to it reading this article needs citations for verification you know what it s an important statement for me so i need citations i need references i need verification i need emmanuel saez s graph graph 1 the top decile income share in the united states 1917 2007 from striking it richer pdf 2009 by emmanuel saez greater equality 1942 1978 golden age of growth 1947 1973 periods of economic growth traditionally are characterized by greater equality of classes evidence well it s a start i particularly like the idea that inequality might run in some sort of cyclical pattern that idea fits right in with my world view shows up in the graph too actually as arnold toynbee may already have said if there are cyclical patterns on a civilizational scale to be found in our world then we ought to start with that and always remember that the details probably fit the larger pattern you don t always need to fit details to the larger pattern but the pattern can help to resolve ambiguities it can provide guidance and it can call some things plain silly like the idea that economic growth always clings to an invariant trend economists like to think economic growth tends to trend they say things like gdp is trend stationary they speak of an output gap the output gap is the gap between where gdp is now and where it would be if it had stayed on trend people who speak of an output gap think in terms of a long term trend of growth let me see if i can get this right stochastic means random and is the opposite of deterministic at mathworks they look at a graph of us gdp and identify it as a nonstationary as opposed to stationary stochastic process nonstationary because there is a very obvious upward trend visible on the graph mathworks calls this upward trend a mean trend and describes it as a violation of stationarity so it is a nonstationary stochastic process they identify two such trend types where the mean trend is deterministic and where the mean trend is stochastic note these two are opposites per our introductory definitions just above so gdp is a nonstationary stochastic process where the nonstationary part the trend part might be deterministic or might be stochastic if it is deterministic we have a deterministic nonstationary stochastic process if it is stochastic we have a stochastic nonstationary stochastic process ain t this fun anyway the deterministic one is said to be trend stationary the other one according to eduardo rossi s pdf page 4 is said to have a unit root and this isn t just boring arithmetic it s economics with a hard on here s the thing the path of gdp is something stochastic the stochastic part means it s random in the sense i think that we cannot know whether the next report will be higher or lower than anybody s guess that s the marginal piece of it the next piece of data part the other part of it is the long term piece you know the trend is it a trend or is it as random as the next piece of data is it deterministic or stochastic that is the question but that is their question not mine for me it s a toynbee thing left to its own devices the economy will follow a path of growth and decline that encompasses many centuries and many nation states left to its own devices the economy will conform to the demands of human nature and to the demands of wealth left to its own devices we get what looks to us to be the rise and fall of civilizations it doesn t have to be that way of course we could understand that what s happening is the result of such forces and we could choose a different path but that s a difficult thing to achieve because everyone clings to their political opinions even when they damn well know the problems are economic it s a catch 22 if we leave our economy to the wiles of human nature we end up with the decline and fall of civilization and the only thing we have to prevent that sad end is human nature so how to resolve the deterministic slash stochastic trend stationary slash unit root dilemma think big picture sometimes it s one way sometimes the other when the economy s growing vigorously for twenty years or more or when a nation is young and vigorous you ve got a deterministic trend when economic problems arise faster than we can invent solutions and growth sucks ass well you get lots of people chanting unit root unit root unit root and you know what at that moment they re right posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels cycle of civilization friday may 24 2013 reasons for the fall of the saving rate from the saving decline macro facts micro behavior pdf by david bunting in the journal of economic behavior organization between 1952 and 1984 the aggregate personal saving rate as calculated from national income and product account nipa data by the bureau of e...