Meta tags:

Headings (most frequently used words):

the, new, arthurian, economics, debt, accumulation, google, translate, blog, archive, links, labels, sunday, august, 2013, one, could, argue, that, growth, is, cause, of, inflation, comments,

Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (106), and (38), debt (26), cost (24), inflation (23), that (22), labor (19), gdp (18), #growth (16), august (14), unit (14), data (13), with (12), def (12), money (11), for (11), can (10), are (10), january (10), graph (9), #economic (9), may (9), our (9), february (9), march (9), april (9), june (9), july (9), september (9), october (9), november (9), december (9), one (8), not (8), but (7), post (7), 2013 (7), there (7), arthurian (7), red (7), measure (7), policy (7), fred (6), you (6), two (6), similar (6), source (6), read (6), like (6), cause (6), output (6), could (6), this (6), new (6), line (6), prices (6), problem (5), said (5), lines (5), use (5), say (5), better (5), think (5), here (5), would (5), see (5), have (5), evidence (5), how (5), costs (5), economics (5), credit (5), spending (5), louis (4), than (4), let (4), because (4), most (4), good (4), real (4), what (4), don (4), between (4), blue (4), says (4), friedman (4), crisis (4), fed (3), federal (3), bank (3), comments (3), unbelievably (3), was (3), about (3), wit (3), relative (3), want (3), nominal (3), work (3), even (3), series (3), actual (3), which (3), calculation (3), deflator (3), argue (3), timeline (3), know (3), economy (3), productivity (3), more (3), investment (3), page (3), blog (3), look (3), graphs (2), reserve (2), 2016 (2), all (2), org (2), newer (2), course (2), strikingly (2), must (2), parody (2), point (2), gdpc1 (2), 100 (2), three (2), equally (2), arguments (2), pathetic (2), invent (2), notion (2), legitimate (2), well (2), respected (2), choose (2), denominator (2), valuable (2), perhaps (2), discovery (2), thought (2), adjusting (2), via (2), these (2), interesting (2), anonymous (2), hope (2), when (2), has (2), been (2), discovered (2), labels (2), tongue (2), cheek (2), simulated (2), your (2), show (2), just (2), bad (2), associated (2), number (2), others (2), might (2), call (2), model (2), their (2), something (2), variant (2), best (2), same (2), some (2), causes (2), put (2), easy (2), similarity (2), they (2), very (2), higher (2), ulc (2), important (2), rate (2), another (2), milton (2), also (2), revision (2), get (2), 2010 (2), 2018 (2), long (2), taxes (2), sumner (2), recession (2), household (2), loops (2), laffer (2), curve (2), krugman (2), jerry (2), ego (2), historical (2), fun (2), banking (2), fpi (2), five (2), financial (2), expectations (2), civilization (2), push (2), dave (2), ross (2), image (2), google (2), translate (2), html (2), blogger (2), spoiler (2), economist (2), john (2), charts (2), tax (2), pdf (2), spreadsheet (2), components (2), base (2), fixed (2), private (2), trends (2), venn (2), rights, reserved, appear, courtesy, http, research, stlouisfed, fred2, lead, horse, water, make, him, drink, stay, thirsty, friends, subscribe, atom, home, older, comment, wrote, objects, first, sentence, part, title, next, bit, quote, great, explanation, way, explain, similarly, flawed, prove, claim, confusion, lots, serious, sadly, agree, above, logic, circular, computed, measured, solving, indices, deriving, meant, derive, relationship, from, change, useful, stating, obvious, definition, gdpdef, seeing, posted, things, time, unless, were, trying, really, certain, sort, newton, inventing, gravity, imagine, state, after, total, should, itself, since, concerned, expresses, involved, measures, purchase, numerator, divisor, used, adjusted, before, proceed, stop, review, other, besides, forth, those, unbe, ably, significant, matthew, favorite, indicator, high, correlation, usa, coincide, wages, changes, labour, determining, underlying, known, again, points, out, certainly, now, superlative, shows, true, percent, god, match, spectacular, closely, tracks, unbelievable, today, related, formula, rearrange, relations, exact, per, nothing, arithmetic, requires, quantity, guru, cullen, roche, srw, yglesias, liev, michael, leddy, many, bits, lost, online, sunday, copyright, arthur, shipman, zoho, withering, shoots, waste, fraud, abuse, verdoorn, urgency, unsustainable, umic, tot, tint, knob, supply, side, decline, shift, transaction, difference, taylor, rule, symmetry, deception, stimulus, star, trek, standard, deviation, stagflation, spreadsheeting, special, report, slack, simulacron, serfdom, sequence, scott, reviews, reduction, green, reading, writing, questions, printing, price, controls, predicting, pfi, parameters, oil, only, non, linear, tools, moving, average, motives, multiplier, mmt, military, medium, account, math, problems, matched, set, fekete, malaise, variable, limits, captain, introduction, iceberg, couldn, sleep, humor, didn, pay, hover, craft, hodrick, prescott, hoarding, revisionism, phase, calc, gross, domestic, gresham, law, gold, shortage, gds, gang8, mpc, full, disclosure, free, era, forget, digit, years, words, financialization, final, feedback, fcm, fallacy, composition, failure, embrace, factors, evolution, excuse, erosion, eroc, forces, echoes, dpd, disarray, demand, pull, deflation, outside, limit, issue, reissue, inside, general, equilibrium, activity, bulge, recovery, context, debasement, cycle, chronicles, efficiency, coping, coinage, civ, calculating, share, wealth, bullard, earthquake, downs, behavioral, finte, greater, artish, accidental, discoveries, accelerated, repayment, little, argument, 400k, smoothing, 1986, 2000, 1970s, 1966, contact, website, stuff, tufte, analysis, normalized, scaled, mental, workout, numerical, ignorance, kardi, teknomo, jim, organize, supreme, court, jester, prac, vin, faq, nice, bloogger, link, within, color, codes, sentral, test, help, www, schools, menu, host, tips, theory2life, irrational, unsettling, broad, oak, redonomics, thinking, margin, year, old, freshman, dolor, rants, dredd, mayday, books, jbpeebles, truth, addicts, anon, frozen, arctic, tundra, blended, purple, candid, troublesome, action, nextblog, skeptical, optimist, worthwhile, canadian, father, tim, duy, cybereconomics, crises, businomics, ecometry, william, hummell, flavianopolis, aquinum, razor, crystal, bull, williams, sgs, econompic, secret, mark, wieczorek, perot, historicalstatistics, sources, irs, corp, 2006, dates, top, rates, usgovernmentspending, economagic, stock, 1947, flow, funds, bls, jobs, bea, accounts, measuringworth, statistical, abstracts, gavin, kennedy, mason, paul, pages, scribd, links, 2009, 361, 571, 2011, 476, 2012, whites, eyes, repeat, numbers, inflat, alert, done, transfe, fwiw, nonlabor, corporate, extinctions, suddenly, everything, different, 181, world, added, results, going, thru, motions, outperforming, potential, key, success, interferes, science, turns, alchemy, else, reasonably, disastrous, cumulative, far, reaching, repercussi, rush, nobel, prize, openness, code, neil, irwin, right, looks, performance, barometer, eye, log, christensen, fitted, 412, 374, 2014, 283, 2015, 318, 274, 2017, archive, versions, showing, accumulating, hurts, mine, brings, preview, window, click, template, button, open, introductory, googledocs, file, stand, alone, php, version, accumulation, art, vigor, start, few, unusual, into, mess, still, overview, download, matter, life, death, policies, overlap, recommendations, surprising, short, longer, thing, views, posts, econcrit, challenging, premisses,

Text of the page (random words):
the new arthurian economics one could argue that growth is the cause of inflation the new arthurian economics challenging the premisses newer posts at econcrit start with the debt problem three views of it and the most important thing here s a longer look at the debt problem here s a short one on economic policy some surprising trends and a few unusual policy recommendations how d we get into this mess read policy venn and policies of the venn overlap still with me read a matter of life and death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 fpi and christensen fitted debt which one is not like the others log of real fixed private investment and trends just by eye a barometer of growth looks like a measure of the economy s performance fixed private investment the components of base money 3 the components of base money 2 neil irwin can t be right openness of economic data and code the nobel prize for ego don t rush me disastrous cumulative and far reaching repercussi what else could we reasonably do when hope interferes science turns to alchemy the key discovery the one success outperforming our potential going thru the motions i have to look at the spreadsheet 2 i have to look at the spreadsheet the crisis is results 10 181 world bank series added to fred i don t know what to say suddenly everything is different corporate extinctions fwiw labor and nonlabor unit costs i d also like to see more work done on the transfe spoiler alert one could argue that growth is the cause of inflat fun with numbers let me repeat that the whites of their eyes july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman sunday august 4 2013 one could argue that growth is the cause of inflation but there would be better things to do with your time unless you were trying to show just how really bad a certain sort of evidence can be i think many bits of parody and wit get lost online michael leddy like newton inventing gravity let us invent the notion that there is a cost associated with growth imagine that we can state this cost as a number and that we can work with it as others might work with say unit labor cost data we can call our number unit growth cost we can even model our new data series after the unit labor cost series their source data is total labor cost data our source data should be something associated with economic growth i think the most legitimate well respected data we could use is the gdp data itself since we are most concerned with the cost of growth we want to choose the variant of gdp that best expresses the cost involved that variant would be actual or nominal gdp which measures the actual cost to purchase output so we have our numerator as for the denominator we would want to use the same valuable divisor that is used for the unit labor cost calculation inflation adjusted or real gdp before we proceed let s stop and review some of the other causes of inflation besides growth and the evidence that has been put forth for those causes there is of course the problem of labor and the unit labor cost evidence graph 1 the gdp deflator red as a measure of prices and unit labor cost blue it is easy to see the similarity between the two lines the red line is prices the blue line is the labor cost measure they are strikingly similar unbe liev ably similar so labor cost must be the source of inflation unbelievably similar and unbelievably significant matthew yglesias says my favorite indicator of inflation is unit labor costs via srw cullen roche says there is a very high correlation between inflation and labor costs in the usa higher labor costs coincide with higher wages the revision guru says changes in unit labour costs ulc s are important in determining the underlying rate of inflation but there is another cause of inflation better known even than unit labor cost it is milton friedman s money relative to output which we can show in a fred graph graph 2 the gdp deflator red as a measure of prices and the quantity of money relative to output again it is easy to see the similarity between the two lines friedman even points out that there is nothing in the arithmetic that requires the two lines to be the same but the lines certainly are similar now to our superlative measure the one that shows that growth is the true cause of inflation our measure is the blue line on graph 3 our calculation is actual gdp as a percent of output the red line is prices graph 3 the gdp deflator red as a measure of prices and gdp per unit of output oh my god this is an exact match friedman s graph was good and the unit labor cost graph was good but this graph is spectacular see how closely our blue line tracks the red prices line this is unbelievable perhaps we have discovered something here today related post these are the relations also here s another formula you can rearrange posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am labels simulated evidence tongue in cheek 4 comments anonymous said i hope i am stating the obvious when i say gdp gdpc1 100 is the definition of gdpdef may have to re read the post because i m not seeing what has been discovered august 28 2013 at 6 22 pm anonymous said i agree with the above i think the logic here is circular real gdp is computed by adjusting nominal gdp for measured inflation so solving for that inflation via these two indices is not deriving inflation i think what you meant to do is to derive a relationship from the change in nominal gdp that would be interesting to see but i don t think it would be useful august 28 2013 at 6 30 pm the arthurian said read the first sentence like it was part of the title and read the next bit the quote about parody and wit my point is not that gdp gdpc1 100 is a great explanation of the cause of inflation my point is that unit labor cost and money relative to output are no better than my unit growth cost as a way to explain the source of inflation the three are equally and similarly flawed my arguments are pathetic let us invent the notion that we want to prove i claim to use gdp because it is the most legitimate well respected data we could use and i choose a denominator because it is valuable source of confusion lots of serious economic arguments are equally pathetic i d say but perhaps sadly the discovery is that my wit is not so good as i thought august 28 2013 at 7 17 pm the arthurian said there is of course the problem of labor i wrote and of graph 1 i said the two lines are strikingly similar unbelievably similar so labor cost must be the source of inflation no one objects to that i do august 29 2013 at 5 20 am post a comment newer post older post home subscribe to post comments atom you can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink stay thirsty my friends fred graphs federal reserve bank of st louis 2016 all rights reserved all fred graphs appear courtesy of federal reserve bank of st louis http research stlouisfed org fred2 the st louis fed