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the new arthurian economics following up the new arthurian economics challenging the premisses newer posts at econcrit start with the debt problem three views of it and the most important thing here s a longer look at the debt problem here s a short one on economic policy some surprising trends and a few unusual policy recommendations how d we get into this mess read policy venn and policies of the venn overlap still with me read a matter of life and death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 started with the pope all downhill from there i probably shouldn t but i will delayed response potential growth is real we just don t know the i don t so much like the wealth income disparit a simple subtraction speaking of models dirk ehnts and the holodeck following up impressions between the surges oh daniel a disputed statement is a weak link in a chain of secular stagnation strikes again worst case unemployment and the output gap figuring worst case unemployment preparing to figure worst case unemployment number of persons employed and unemployed how to calculate labor force participation rate worst case unemployment the least we can do supply and demand imagine that whoa this graph looks like that one objectivity and attitude simple arithmetic the survival of civilization out of step objectivity and attitude greg clarifying non profit for my wife with the fedfunds rate below the floor the agency is facing many demands on its limited the comprehensive revision of real gdp the revision of potential gdp november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman monday december 23 2013 following up on saturday i showed consumer debt on a log scale it showed pretty much a straight line increase then i said the log scale graph provided no context for consumer debt and that in context the graph would show much less of a straight line increase so i showed a graph of consumer debt relative to gdp consumer debt in context and sure enough the graph showed much less of a straight line increase something s been bothering me for two days now i remember stuart staniford saying it s hard to read changes in small growth rates on a log graph and i m concerned that my first graph hides changes because it s a log graph i m concerned that my second graph shows much more deviation from the straight line increase because it s not a log graph so i went back to fred and looked at consumer debt on a log scale again and this time i put consumer debt relative to gdp on the same graph and i made sure to show the log values of the second line this time graph 1 consumer debt on a log scale blue and log of the consumer debt to gdp ratio red consumer debt on a log scale shows a straight line increase consumer debt in the context of gdp does not show a straight line increase and this is true even when log values are shown so yes consumer debt relative to gdp fails to show the straight line increase because of the context variable because of gdp it s the context that distorts the picture at fred when you have the ratio of two series you cannot show the values on a log scale to get the same effect you have to take the log of the values i m not sure why that is really but i did look into it the two methods are equivalent posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comment jazzbumpa said i one way of looking at the data doesn t give a clear picture it can be sliced another way denominators can both provide context and be misleading depending on the circumstances since you re interested in growth rates why not look at that aspect directly http research stlouisfed org fred2 graph g qjd i think i riffed on this graph a couple of days ago at another post cheers jzb december 23 2013 at 10 39 am post a comment newer post older post home subscribe to post comments atom you can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink stay thirsty my friends fred graphs federal reserve bank of st louis 2016 all rights reserved all fred graphs appear courtesy of federal reserve bank of st louis http research stlouisfed org fred2 the st louis fed