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Text of the page (random words):
f you think of it in simple terms you can see that the end of troubles for some reason requires public debt to rise above the level of private debt just as it did in the 1940s well that was easy to do in the 1940s for private debt was falling since probably 1966 we have needed public debt to again rise above the level of private debt but this has been impossible to achieve because private debt has been rising faster than public debt the people who say we need more federal spending are right except for one thing federal spending has been more since 1980 and it has not solved the problem it has not solved the problem because private debt is not falling private debt is growing faster than public debt that is what has to change you with me posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments wednesday november 12 2014 this was a direct challenge to keynesian style fiscal policy and ushered in monetarism from my monthly repec stats i got to top 25 working papers by file downloads 2014 10 where the top item was how did we get to where we are now reflections on 50 years of macroeconomic and financial econometrics by michael wickens it s a 53 page pdf i ll never get to the end of it i have to say though that it is fascinating and easy reading far as i ve got this is from the opening of section 2 macroeconomic models this procrustean approach to macroeconomic modelling was challenged by a number of undermining analyses that achieved considerable prominence and led to the increased use of small scale models one of the first such studies was by anderson and jordan 1968 who found that in a simple regression of output on distributed lags of the money supply and government expenditures it was money that was significant and not government expenditures this was a direct challenge to keynesian style fiscal policy and ushered in monetarism so by page eight i tripped over the sentence that serves as the title of this post sending me off in search of anderson and jordan 1968 i want to know what years andersen and jordan studied that gave them the results they got why because the economy changes that s why anderson and jordan found that it was money that was significant and not government expenditures andersen and jordan turned up at the st louis fed monetary and fiscal actions a test of their relative importance in economic stabilization pdf 14 pages andersen and jordan the data are seasonally adjusted quarterly averages for the period from the first quarter of 1952 to the second quarter of 1968 so yes the andersen jordan paper examines the economy s reactions in a brief window at a time when the economy s performance was particularly good the irony is that the economy s performance in the 1950s and 60s was particularly good because of the large amount of government expenditures in the 1940s posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments tuesday november 11 2014 a few minor changes from qe s seeds are already sown by david howden at bastiat mises when a financial crisis or economic recession hits it s almost never because of some event that apparently happened at the same time the crisis of 2008 did not occur because of the collapse of lehman brothers it happened because the whole financial system and greater economy were fragile following years of cheap credit at the hands of the greenspan fed if anything lehman was a result of this and a great if unfortunate example of the type of bad business decisions firms are lured into by loose money it wasn t the cause of the troubles but a result of them and if lehman didn t go under to spark the credit crunch some other fragile financial institution would have i think that s just about exactly right if i were to change anything in it i d cut out following years of cheap credit at the hands of the greenspan fed and replace it with something like because of our unrelenting encouragement of credit use and our failure to encourage repayment of debt i don t blame greenspan the problematic policy existed long before greenspan anyway the policy arises from congress not from the fed and i don t blame easy credit credit should be easy i blame failure to repay or the failure of policy to accelerate repayment of debt enough to offset the accelerated use of credit we borrow faster than we pay back therefore debt accumulates and it s not that loose credit lures people into bad business decisions rather it s accumulating debt that turns good decisions into bad ones posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments monday november 10 2014 money relative to gdp rates of growth graph 1 percent change in money relative to gdp 1916 1970 graph 2 percent change in money relative to gdp 1970 2014 click either graph for source page google sheets for graph 1 fred for 2 on both graphs base money shown in gold m2 money in red graph 1 shows m1 money blue while 2 shows mzm green on both graphs the different money measures all move together the money measures all move in the same direction and change at the same time this generalization appears to be somewhat less true of the second graph than the first but even on the second graph it is for the most part correct there are no lags between base money and the other moneys as there are between base money and inflation evidently there are lags between all the moneys and inflation what does this mean it means that the metabolism of the economy the source of lag does not depend on the quantity of money or at least it doesn t always depend on the quantity of money this is premature but i m tempted to say it depends on the willingness to spend posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments labels long and variable sunday november 9 2014 the volume of trade in the time of charlemagne from page 97 of john j butt s daily life in the age of charlemagne some historians have seen the main purpose of coins in the eighth and ninth centuries as stored value because many of the coins that have been discovered have been in buried hoarded collections and because many of the carolingian coins look relatively new and unworn however the coins that are discovered are often likely to be ones buried in a hoard it is less common to find individual coins and unlikely that bog people will be discovered with pockets loaded with coins second carolingian coins were struck or minted very carefully and very heavily meaning that the dies for casting were cut deeply this produced coins with high and sharp relief therefore they often still look in mint condition these coins were not meant just for the nobility nor as a means for saving value for they were minted in a number of locations around the kingdom including aachen amiens quentovic rheims rouen paris lyon strasbourg verdun melle milan pavia dinant maastricht and dorestad charlemagne tried to consolidate minting to the royal palace at aachen but was unsuccessful in doing so the existence of so many mints indicates that coins were needed regularly and continuously around the kingdom and there could be no other purpose than trade that would require such continuous supply of coins some historians have suggested that the purpose of coins was for hoarding of treasure or that they were used solely by large scale merchants but the number of coins in circulation proves that coinage was primarily for regular trade there has been a great deal of debate about the number of coins that were in circulation in the carolingian empire an estimate has been made for the number of coins minted in mercia england under king offa a contemporary of charlemagne of 6 7 million estimates would suggest that the number of coins minted during charlemagne s reign was considerably larger than this perhaps several times this even 10 million coins would provide numbers far beyond savings of treasure and even beyond use by a few large scale merchants numbers such as these would suggest that many people were using coins on a regular basis for everyday trade bog people i like that the first paragraph i have no trouble with coins are likely to be discovered in hoards sure the coins had sharp relief okay coins were minted in several places fine the second and third paragraphs excerpted here are a single paragraph in the original the existence of so many mints john butt writes indicates that coins were needed regularly and continuously around the kingdom maybe or maybe it was a sign of prestige to have a mint maybe it meant the king liked you better and every liege lord wanted one maybe charlemagne handed out mints for good behavior i m no historian i just poke things with a stick but the reading i ve done must have been from works written by some of those some historians who said the main purpose of coins was to store value because i think there was a lot of that in charlemagne s time i think charlemagne tried to stimulate the economy i think either he changed that trend or he lived at a time when the trend was starting to change or more likely both but i think it s incorrect to convey the idea that the volume of trade then was in any sense comparable to trade today i think john butt s argument is weak why is it unlikely that bog people will be discovered with pockets loaded with coins perhaps because those people used coins far less than john butt says i think people have a tendency to interpret things in terms they understand the economy was different in charlemagne s time than it is today i think john butt is interpreting charlemagne s economy in modern terms from long before the fall of rome hoarding had been the way of the world the hoarding mentality was the economic challenge charlemagne faced john butt doesn t see it t here could be no other purpose than trade that would require such continuous supply of coins he says certainly there could be other purposes hoarding for one i have previously quoted the historian ferdinand lot after the end of the seventh century the issue of gold coins slowed down and then completely disappeared in the eighth century even silver money tended to pass out of currency at least in the rhine districts payments being made in grain cattle horses etc rather than in metal specie as coin went out of circulation it went into hoards or it went to other lands i have previously quoted the historian marc bloch the life of the europe of the first feudal age was not entirely self contained there was more than one current of exchange between it and the neighbouring civilizations not only was this trade restricted to very few routes it was also extremely small in volume what is worse the balance of trade seems to have been distinctly unfavourable at any rate with the east the profits of the slave trade in general fairly small were not sufficient to pay for the purchase of precious goods and spices in the markets of the byzantine world of egypt or of nearer asia the result was a slow drain of silver and above all of gold if a few merchants unquestionably owed their prosperity to these remote transactions society as a whole owed scarcely anything to them except one more reason for being short of specie however money was never wholly absent from business transactions in feudal europe even among the peasant classes and it never ceased to be employed as a standard of exchange payments were often made in produce but the produce was normally valued item by item in such a way that the total of these reckonings corresponded with a stipulated price in pounds shillings and pence the weakness of trade and of monetary circulation had a further consequence of the gravest kind it reduced to insignificance the social function of wages the latter requires that the employer should have at his disposal an adequate currency the source of which is not in danger of drying up at any moment on the side of the wage earner it requires the certainty of being able to employ the money thus received in procuring for himself the necessities of life both these conditions were absent in the first feudal age john butt says these coins were not meant just for the nobility nor as a means for saving value the existence of so many mints indicates that coins were needed regularly and continuously around the kingdom t he number of coins in circulation proves that coinage was primarily for regular trade m any people were using coins on a regular basis for everyday trade marc bloch says money was never wholly absent bloch says money values were used to measure value in barter exchanges that s not the same as using coin for everyday trade not by our standards if every harry serf and his brother were engaged in trade where did they get the coin there were no wages there was no robin hood oh there was still trade sure at the top of the heap just like today we have asset price inflation while the real economy languishes take the trends of our time and run with them for some hundreds of years and you ll get a feel for the nature and volume of trade in the time of charlemagne again john butt the existence of so many mints indicates that coins were needed regularly and continuously around the kingdom and there could be no other purpose than trade that would require such continuous supply of coins maybe minting of coins was charlemagne s version of quantitative easing he was trying to restore the economy he was trying to get money circulating like ben bernanke charlemagne knew that for money to circulate money had to be made available so like bernanke he made money available if much of that money sat idle in hoards it must have come as no surprise i wonder if they called it excess reserves in those days posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday november 8 2014 europe s dark ages ended when charlemagne came along from livescience how charlemagne changed the world by heather whipps after the break up of the roman empire in the late 5th century its eastern byzantine half flourished while the western region disintegrated into a collection of fragmented kingdoms without any central authority europe was entering its fourth century of the dark ages when charlemagne was born in a d 742 a time marked by frequent warfare few important cultural achievements and the virtual cessation of learning charlemagne became ruler of one of those kingdoms in germany in a d 768 and immediately set about expanding his territory through the course of more than 50 battles most of which he led in person he d conquered almost all of mainland europe everywhere his rule was established charlemagne instituted the same reforms creating a common identity in people from eastern germany to southern spain one of the most important changes charlemagne made was abandoning the gold standard and putting all of europe on the same silver currency trade became easier and the continent prospered aided by laws that took some power away from the nobles and let the peasantry participate in commerce the lower classes benefited in other ways under charlemagne who was frustrated with the nobility s sense of entitlement and had deep sympathy for the peasants acc...