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the new arthurian economics about the vigor created by our next president the new arthurian economics challenging the premisses newer posts at econcrit start with the debt problem three views of it and the most important thing here s a longer look at the debt problem here s a short one on economic policy some surprising trends and a few unusual policy recommendations how d we get into this mess read policy venn and policies of the venn overlap still with me read a matter of life and death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 closing out household debt service month with an household borrowing hit a hard limit four years be household debt and debt service debt service projection thru 2020 bezemer and hudson quotable relevant insanity bis on the connection between debt and labor produ debt service and labor productivity projections potential productivity productivity and debt service low debt service plus growing debt equals producti illicit use of the hodrick prescott the relation between debt service and rgdp growth debt service and economic growth reverse engineering the household debt service ratio what i said eleven months back bill mcbride i don t expect a downturn for emplo the secret i predict vigor because that s what the graphs sho where s lambert good starts bad endings and private to public debt about the vigor created by our next president all the vigor that fits on my screen time will tell this turned out to be a good day acceleration gdp is not a good predictor of recession is anyone still predicting recession yes in fact they are all going up again july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman sunday august 7 2016 about the vigor created by our next president the underlying reality of low growth neil irwin says will haunt whoever wins the white house in november i don t think so i expect vigor no matter who wins the white house in november i think it would be pretty ironic if hillary clinton gets elected because what i m looking at amounts to vigor starting about a year into the first term of the next u s president if hillary is elected we will be hearing stories that it takes a clinton to create economic vigor but bill clinton had no more to do with the good economy of the 1990s than hillary does with the good economy of 2018 2024 it would be more accurate to say that the changes which created the good years of the latter 1990s happened mostly during the reagan and h w bush years and that the changes which will create the good years to come happened mostly during the obama years for the record the vigor of the 1990s was made possible by a big drop in debt growth 1985 1991 combined with a big increase in spending money 1990 1994 the debt per dollar ratio shows this as a decline 1990 1994 that decline was followed by unusually rapid increase 1995 2000 this increase was the source of the funds that made vigorous growth possible in the latter 1990s the changes are indicated in red on the graphs below graph 1 the growth of total debt graph 2 the growth of spending money graph 3 the debt per dollar ratio you can see the same effects in the graph of household debt service graph 4 household debt service the stage has already been set for the vigor that will be attributed to our next president posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 7 comments the arthurian said arthurian monetarism august 7 2016 at 5 44 am michael leddy said i read and understood everything in this post there s usually a lot i don t quite get which reflects on me not on you i hope what you think will happen does happen august 7 2016 at 10 15 am the arthurian said thank you michael august 7 2016 at 10 53 am the arthurian said at fivethirtyeight the economy is keeping reluctant trump voters with him more than one year in reluctant trump voters are generally still happy that they voted for trump in the most recent survey 57 percent of reluctant trump voters said they had no regrets about their vote though 28 percent said the jury was still out for a comparison 83 percent of all trump voters said they had no regrets while 11 percent said the jury was still out most importantly our latest survey shows that the president is making some inroads with these reluctant trump voters however gradual and that the economy is a big reason why in april of last year 2 our survey found that only 14 percent of reluctant trump voters strongly approved of the job the president was doing in the latest iteration of the survey that number had ticked up to 22 percent this could be due in part to reluctant trump voters views of the economy march 9 2018 at 1 50 am the arthurian said at cnbc 7 september 2018 trump has set economic growth on fire here is how he did it trump s economic program was very simple an attack on taxes and regulations with an extra dose of spending on infrastructure and the military that would create a supply shock to a moribund economy no look at my graphs september 7 2018 at 6 24 pm the arthurian said politico 3 21 2019 how trump is on track for a 2020 landslide the economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it said donald luskin chief investment officer of trendmacrolytics a research firm whose model correctly predicted trump s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not march 22 2019 at 2 14 pm the arthurian said jeffrey d sachs at project syndicate america s illusions of growth many commentators have interpreted buoyant gdp and unemployment data in the united states as vindicating president donald trump s economic policies and some suggest that his re election chances have improved as a result sachs disagrees with those commentators but let s wait and see how the elections turns out may 18 2019 at 7 44 pm post a comment newer post older post home subscribe to post comments atom you can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink stay thirsty my friends fred graphs federal reserve bank of st louis 2016 all rights reserved all fred graphs appear courtesy of federal reserve bank of st louis http research stlouisfed org fred2 the st louis fed