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the new arthurian economics disarray the new arthurian economics challenging the premisses newer posts at econcrit start with the debt problem three views of it and the most important thing here s a longer look at the debt problem here s a short one on economic policy some surprising trends and a few unusual policy recommendations how d we get into this mess read policy venn and policies of the venn overlap still with me read a matter of life and death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 there is one thing are you high seeing past the aberrations in debt to gdp where we stand shiller what drives these decade long swings in c an interesting footnote on the federal debt on raising interest rates the forgotten crash 1966 you wanna count what my how the story has changed interest cost by sector dolts for better theory keynes on excessive finance non financial in name only repetition helps anna zabai of bis on household debt us population back to 1929 households and hedge funds the eye that looks ahead to the safe course is cl two sides to every story not investment advice labor share as index and as percent inequality is a symptom wages and salaries arising from government employment never confuse them again tell me there s no price fixing going on here labor share there may be more here than meets the apparently they really do have economic concerns desire for wealth as such that is for the apparently i m out of the loop this goes all the way back to sumer in the third the point of maximum gain 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman showing posts with label disarray show all posts showing posts with label disarray show all posts saturday april 12 2014 wreckage from the history of the phillips curve consensus and bifurcation by robert j gordon pdf 41 pages 2008 introduction the history of the phillips curve pc has evolved in two phases before and after 1975 with a widespread consensus about the pre 1975 evolution which is well understood the pre 1975 history is straightforward and is covered in section i the initial discovery of the negative inflation unemployment relation by phillips popularized by samuelson and solow was followed by a brief period in which policy makers assumed that they could exploit the trade off to reduce unemployment at a small cost of additional inflation then the natural rate revolution of friedman phelps and lucas overturned the policy exploitable trade off in favour of long run monetary neutrality those who had implemented the econometric version of the trade off pc in the 1960s reeled in disbelief when sargent demonstrated the logical failure of their test of neutrality and finally were condemned to the wreckage of keynesian economics by lucas and sargent following the twist of the inflation unemployment correlation from negative in the 1960s to positive in the 1970s from after keynesian macroeconomics by robert e lucas and thomas j sargent pdf 34 pages 1978 1 introduction we dwell on these halcyon days of keynesian economics because without conscious effort they are difficult to recall today that these predictions were wildly incorrect and that the doctrine on which they were based is fundamentally flawed are now simple matters of fact involving no novelties in economic theory the task which faces contemporary students of the business cycle is that of sorting through the wreckage determining which features of that remarkable intellectual event called the keynesian revolution can be salvaged and put to good use and which others must be discarded for the record the negative correlation of the phillips curve is the tradeoff a little more inflation and a little less unemployment or the reverse the positive correlation is when both inflation and unemployment increase or both decrease the negative correlation displays the tradeoff for given economic conditions the positive correlation shows what happens when economic conditions improve or get worse when people deny the existence of the tradeoff it is because they are considering the long term during which the condition of the economy varies even so the tradeoff still applies to the short term but the proper fix for our economy is not to fiddle with the short term tradeoff the proper fix is to figure out how to improve conditions over the long term posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments labels disarray friday june 11 2010 pk paul krugman is very good with words that probably accounts for the intensity of opinion about him both for and against but sometimes he s too good with words and that allows him to change the subject and avoid answering important questions here s krugman from 24 may did the postwar system fail i ve been posting about the contrast between the popular perception on the right that america had slow growth until reagan came along and the reality that we did fine pre reagan in fact better see here here and here and what i m getting as a common response including from liberals is something along the lines of that s all very well but by 1980 the postwar system was clearly failing so what would you have done instead of reaganomics which all goes to show just how thoroughly almost everyone has been indoctrinated by the current orthodoxy krugman takes the common response phrases it better than anyone else and then proceeds to ignore the question you cannot ignore the question krugman it is the most important question since keynesianism fell into disarray here s pk s answer here s what i think inflation did have to be brought down and paul volcker not reagan did what was necessary but the rest slashing taxes on the rich breaking the unions letting inflation erode the minimum wage wasn t necessary at all we could have gone on with a more progressive tax system a stronger labor movement and so on radical change happened because a powerful political movement wanted it not out of economic necessity radical change happened because reagan s people had ideas and krugman s people didn t so krugman says we needed tight money to break the upward spiral of prices he offers nothing else but by 1980 the postwar system was clearly failing paul and you would have done nothing about it posted by the arthurian at 6 30 am 0 comments labels disarray wednesday november 4 2009 disarray thanks for the update kevin blinder unfortunately macroeconomics has been in utter disarray since the keynesian consensus broke down in the 1970s heilbroner keynesianism was the economics of the world from around 1940 through the 1970s but in the 1960s and 1970s came this extraordinary and quite unexpected inflation and that took the bloom off the keynesian rose the keynesian schema which had tremendously wide acceptance had no theory of inflation since then no new view that anyone can agree on has emerged and there has been a vacuum in terms of a defining picture of what the hell economics is in the history of economic thought there has never been such a prolonged period of intellectual disagreement not heard much on the topic lately until today in a comment on scott sumner s does macro need a paradigm shift kevin donoghue wrote so in my view you can only expect to see agreement on what tight money means when there is agreement on the appropriate model that seems to be much farther away than it was in the 1970s when students could look at papers by tobin and friedman and say what s the argument about the length and variability of lags is that all fine tuning bad coarse tuning good there was a mainstream then with only austrians and post keynesians and suchlike outside it there is no mainstream now not yet kevin i m workin on it read more posted by the arthurian at 9 01 pm 4 comments labels disarray older posts home subscribe to posts atom you can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink stay thirsty my friends fred graphs federal reserve bank of st louis 2016 all rights reserved all fred graphs appear courtesy of federal reserve bank of st louis http research stlouisfed org fred2 the st louis fed