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day april 26 posted by kurt cobb at 7 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday april 12 2026 why most economists vastly underestimate the economic damage of the iran conflict a priest an engineer and an economist are stranded on a desert island the first order of business is to get some food the priest suggests that they all pray the practical minded engineer suggests that the three men make a net to catch some fish but where will they find the necessary materials the priest and the engineer turn to the economist and ask him if he has any ideas the economist replies assume a fish this well worn economist joke summarizes one of the chief flaws in contemporary economic theory that theory almost completely ignores the role of physical resources assuming they will always be available in the quantities we need at prices we can afford at the time we need them when those resources aren t available that theory begrudgingly accepts that there will be some damage to economic activity but tends to greatly underestimate the impact this conceptual flaw explains why economists in most financial institutions and governments and thus investors are not especially alarmed at the loss of energy resources as stock market indices remain not too far from their recent highs for a good summary of how contemporary economic theory goes off the rails australian economist steve keen offers a mercifully brief and comprehensible explanation here i will relate one critical part of that explanation about 5 7 percent of u s gdp is devoted to procuring and distributing energy most economists will tell you that a 10 percent decline in energy availability would have a small effect on the u s economy they would take the percentage of the economy devoted to energy in this case 5 7 percent and multiply it by 10 percent to arrive at a 0 57 percent reduction in economic activity read more posted by kurt cobb at 8 19 am 4 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday april 05 2026 martin act to the rescue insider trading on trump reversals in the legal crosshairs currently unknown investors netted tens of millions of dollars in profit by placing huge trades in the oil futures markets just 15 minutes before president donald trump announced he was extending the deadline for strikes on iran s energy infrastructure by five days to allow for nonexistent negotiations which then turned into an additional 10 days which meant little since u s and israeli bombing simply continued because these investors bet on a fall in oil prices they made money when the price of oil dropped sharply after the announcement the same or other investors traded heavily in stock index futures before the iran announcement and profited handsomely as stock futures soared all these investors could end up in legal jeopardy for engaging in insider trading if they were somehow given a heads up about the announcement were their trades just coincidental to the announcement it seems unlikely but that s the big question an investigation would answer read more posted by kurt cobb at 7 41 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday march 29 2026 iran to trump if you destroy us you destroy yourself in the american streaming series bosch the main character a police detective named harry bosch kills two bad guys in a plane who are trying to kill him he then goes to the cockpit holding a pistol taken from one of the dead men the pilot looks at him and says you kill me you kill yourself bosch says i m a f king cop asshole the plane lands safely and the pilot is taken into custody in this analogy president trump is harry bosch the pilot is the supreme leader of iran mojtaba khamenei and the plane is the world economy khamenei can crash the plane that is kill the world economy by destroying the oil and gas infrastructure throughout the persian gulf so that it would take years to rebuild khamenei could go even further and destroy desalination plants in the following countries with noted dependencies on such plants for drinking water saudi arabia 70 oman 86 united arab emirates 42 and kuwait 90 doing this would make these countries largely uninhabitable it s important to recognize that the iranian military has demonstrated that it can hit precisely what it wants to hit with missiles and drones and destroy it sticking with the bosch analogy it s still possible for trump to let the plane land and save the world economy from complete destruction the difference is that the pilot in this analogy iran in the person of its supreme leader must be allowed to go free and live undisturbed that is what trump believes he cannot allow because it would be a humiliating loss read more posted by kurt cobb at 8 42 am 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday march 22 2026 is the complacency in global financial markets warranted shortly before the war with iran began i wrote that the seeming complacency among government officials and financial market participants was based on two assumptions which i argued were unlikely to turn out to be true 1 president donald trump would make a last minute deal with the iranians and declare victory and 2 even if trump didn t make such a deal the iranians would not do all the things which they threatened to do if attacked here we are three weeks into the conflict between the united states and israel and iran there was of course no last minute deal and the iranians have done exactly what they threatened to do here is what i reported before the war were iran s threats those threats include attacking u s bases in the region attacking any country that assists the u s and israeli war effort attacking u s naval vessels and most important closing the strait of hormuz through which passes 20 percent of the world s exported oil and liquefied natural gas read more posted by kurt cobb at 8 47 am 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday march 15 2026 oil price manipulation an unrecognized stratagem and an unhinged plan governments around the world are desperate to bring down oil prices in the wake of a cutoff of about one fifth of the world s supply due to the iran war here are some of the moves we ve seen so far the international energy agency a consortium of 32 countries which coordinate energy policy and emergency readiness called an emergency meeting to discuss release of strategic petroleum reserves to ease prices the countries agreed to a release of 400 million barrels from reserves held in underground caverns and above ground in storage tanks the largest release ever of such reserves with about 20 million barrels per day no longer available from persian gulf exports because of the iranian closure of the strait of hormuz the narrow passage from the gulf to the open sea this release represent just 20 days of oil deliveries but it is unlikely that the daily release of oil will be more than a fraction of the lost barrels given constraints on how fast the reserve can be accessed so it s not surprising that oil prices actually went up after the announcement of course i would be remiss in not pointing out that iran s closure of the strait of hormuz was the initial manipulation of the world oil price as it vowed to push oil prices to 200 per barrel read more posted by kurt cobb at 7 34 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday march 08 2026 iran war what we re in for and why logic is your friend two weeks ago i suggested that the complacency regarding war with iran was misplaced and that that complacency was likely soon to be replaced by panic in the world s capitals and financial markets the general belief was that president donald trump would relent make a deal with iran and declare victory even if he didn t the iranian regime would be quickly overwhelmed by a combined american and israeli attack and possibly be overthrown in a popular revolt or in the alternative sue for peace within days of course neither of those things turned out to be the case the complacency has now vanished leaders in at least some capitals are panicking though the financial markets continue to respond in a surprisingly muted way to the risks this war poses for the world economy here is the most important thing readers should understand about this war iran defines winning the war very narrowly victory for the iranian regime is that the regime survives israel and the united states define winning as the fall of the current regime leading either to a new friendly regime or a break up of the country into various parts and just last friday president trump added that the unconditional surrender surrender of iran is the only acceptable outcome now consider the remarks of the iranian foreign minister to nbc we are not asking for a cease fire and we don t see any reason why we should negotiate with the u s he pointed out that the united states has used two previous negotiations as a deceptive cover for attacks so it looks like this conflict will be a fight to the finish read more posted by kurt cobb at 7 37 am 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest older posts home subscribe to posts atom subscribe to posts atom posts all comments atom all comments subscribe now standard subscribe in a reader search this blog bio email view my complete profile translate comments policy view comments policy blog archive 2026 19 may 2 chinese ag theft pathogen research only point up will the u s curtail oil exports as fuel prices april 4 march 5 february 4 january 4 2025 51 december 4 november 5 october 4 september 4 august 5 july 4 june 5 may 4 april 3 march 5 february 4 january 4 2024 49 december 5 november 4 october 4 september 5 august 4 july 4 june 5 may 4 april 4 march 2 february 4 january 4 2023 53 december 5 november 4 october 5 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october 5 september 1 august 5 july 3 june 2 may 4 april 5 march 2 february 4 january 3 2005 258 december 4 november 2 september 1 august 3 july 4 june 11 may 45 april 53 march 54 february 38 january 43 2004 146 december 58 november 77 october 11 the best of resource insights protagoras and the anthropocene can man still be the measure of all things the high cost of an easy care low maintenance world baumol s cost disease productivity and the future of growth the post fact world and the need for a new consensus donald trump and the impossible destination of globalism limitless imagination and physical limits why you can t argue with a modern why a modern can t understand the risks we face the end of introspection and why it matters politics in a full world climate change is our grand narrative now counterintuitive some volatility is good for you stability not so much energy the repressed paging dr freud the energy revolution will not be televised how the climate change debate got hijacked by the wrong standard of proof william catton s warning the central contradiction in the modern outlook planet of the apes vs 2001 a space odyssey ruin is forever when the precautionary principle is justified i d be happier if i didn t write this stuff freedom in a full world net vs gross energy is it wise to be complacent living in a world we can t understand mad men energy and the culture of want life energy the universe and everything the only true metric of energy abundance the rate of flow oil climate and time why some problems will wait and others will not the one chart about oil s future everyone should see how changing the definition of oil has deceived both policymakers and the public are we moving toward a fact free future should we care about the human future if so how much suppressing volatility makes the world more dangerous is deception no longer an adaptive human strategy a guide for the perplexed energy policymaker the coolest book i ve ever read on energy the illusion of individual risk asymmetrical accolades why preventing a crisis almost never makes you a hero making society forecast proof the trouble with apocalypse the unfathomable universe the big question what do generations owe to each other the unbearable lightness of information no second chance the overoptimized society the net energy cliff manufactured nightmares the pathos of derrick jensen unprepared deceptive landscape just the clash of opinions or different facts facing the epistemological divide copernicus darwin and the cure for autistic economics attitude adjustment facing our ecological predicament apocalypse always is the peak oil movement really just another apocalyptic cult the illusion of autonomy in the fossil fuel age upside down economics scitizen columns the road to fukushima the nuclear industry s wrong turn fossil fuels vs the public interest global coal supplies it might be worse than anyone thinks biophysical economics putting energy at the center energy the achilles heel of the...