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description=10 posts published by scienceofdoom during February 2010;

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the, of, and, conclusion, energy, are, part, wrong, radiative, forcing, science, climate, models, new, theory, numbers, that, why, temperature, radiation, balance, doom, on, catwalk, one, proves, agw, thermal, lag, equilibrium, sun, co2, earth, past, effect, salt, pages, recent, subscribe, by, introduction, what, is, to, which, solar, references, does, from, at, top, atmosphere, olr, your, evaluating, explaining, archive, for, february, 2010, off, temperatures, here, comes, an, insignificant, trace, gas, seven, boring, budget, two, ghosts, climates, can, have, because, predictability, with, pinch, please, confirmation, bias, or, none, us, really, skeptics, posts, comments, categories, websites, key, rss, email, archives, meta, uses, analysis, common, misconception, necessary, but, not, sufficient, digression, about, oceans, paper, sheer, stubbornness, how, be, right, papers, prove, it, all, celebrated, heating, world, calculating, comparing, constant, now, more, accurately, known, as, total, irradiance, proxies, second, order, effects, recap, standardized, approach, averaging, standard, result, where, ipcc, logarithmic, function, come, benefit, using, toa, hasn, outgoing, longwave, increased, imbalance, higher, surface, same, make, sense, articles, in, this, series, downwards, probably, has, most, popular, you, creating, if, correct, doubt, will, ignite, conveyor, belt, thermohaline, circulation, tipping, point,

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the (1003), and (368), that (192), from (121), this (118), energy (116), are (103), #temperature (97), radiation (86), co2 (86), climate (85), you (81), for (79), earth (74), have (68), with (66), can (65), what (63), #theory (63), models (61), more (59), but (58), one (58), surface (58), radiative (55), some (52), out (51), not (51), forcing (48), they (47), atmosphere (47), about (46), how (45), will (45), water (43), there (43), was (40), part (40), effect (39), has (39), which (38), new (37), all (37), very (37), greenhouse (36), see (36), solar (36), would (34), other (33), over (33), just (33), well (31), change (30), sun (30), model (30), gas (28), then (28), many (28), because (27), different (27), heat (26), post (26), longwave (26), ocean (25), people (25), than (25), comments (24), 2010 (24), around (24), ice (24), into (24), changes (24), get (24), science (23), work (23), understand (22), why (22), equations (22), much (22), like (22), top (22), course (21), down (21), only (21), increase (21), february (20), past (20), their (20), these (20), any (20), blog (19), look (19), numbers (19), oceans (19), when (19), two (19), might (19), first (19), also (19), gases (19), vapor (18), been (18), years (18), data (18), fact (18), radiated (18), trace (17), natural (17), second (17), read (17), where (17), way (17), last (17), effects (17), subject (17), being (17), average (17), back (16), wrong (16), time (16), think (16), really (16), most (16), temperatures (16), here (16), its (16), doesn (16), same (16), agw (16), per (16), gcm (16), calculation (16), tsi (16), now (15), your (15), variability (15), don (15), perhaps (15), going (15), paper (15), few (15), increases (15), series (15), insignificant (14), does (14), take (14), end (14), sea (14), note (14), let (14), values (14), even (14), full (13), try (13), find (13), example (13), less (13), between (13), simple (13), right (13), result (13), important (13), toa (13), 2011 (12), feedback (12), 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he answer co2 and other greenhouse gases absorb longwave radiation and re emit radiation both up which continues on its journey out of the atmosphere and down the downward component increases the temperature at the earth s surface the story sparked many questions on other blogs questions like these are great they clarify for me the common problems people have in understanding the greenhouse effect always in quotes because it s not really like a greenhouse at all i m not writing to try and change people s minds i m writing for people who are asking questions and want to understand the subject the only two things i ask be prepared to think it over if you have questions or comments please ask these questions or make these comments just remember the etiquette 1 the downwards radiation is probably from the sun one commenter said you cite measurements of downward radiation were those measurements taken during the day or at night your link doesn t say and the answer is extremely critical to your argument i wasn t clear why it really mattered so i asked the response from the commenter was more than half of what we receive from the sun is already in the ir so a daytime measurement is just measuring spectral lines by shining a light source through a gas anyone could do that in a lab with just air the energy measured is just solar energy anyone who has read the co2 series on this blog even just part one will have their hands in the air already log plot of solar radiation vs terrestrial radiation by wavelength the solar radiation is amount absorbed i e takes into account typical albedo and received at 45 linear plot of the same data 99 of the sun s radiation has a wavelength less than 4μm 99 9 of the earth s radiation has a wavelength greater than 4μm there is almost no overlap so if we measure what we conventionally call longwave radiation 4μm we know it comes from the earth and if we measure what we conventionally call shortwave radiation 4μm we know if comes from the sun this simple fact is an amazing help in understanding the climate but most people don t know it two related points have arisen one of which is alluded to in the question above 1 half of the radiation from the sun is infra red therefore true but a red herring infra red means longer wavelength than visible light greater than 0 7μm not greater than 4μm 2 the sun s energy is way way higher so even though only 1 of its energy is greater than 4μm this will still overwhelm the earth s energy above 4μm this is true when we look at the energy at its source but only a two billionth of the sun s total energy is received by the earth alternatively considering the radiation per m² the solar radiation is reduced by a factor of 46 000 as a result of the inverse square law by the time it reaches the earth the total energy from the sun s radiation at the earth s surface is very similar to the total energy radiated from the earth actually no surprise otherwise the earth would rapidly heat up for more on this see the sun and max planck agree part two 2 energy has to balance at the top of atmosphere if you measure all the energy going in at toa vs all the energy going out at toa you will find that they net to zero over time this is true everyone agrees the greenhouse gas theory doesn t make a claim that contradicts this well established fact in fact it relies on it let s clarify the numbers because i gave the clear sky results in the graphic but most of the time it s cloudy and then the numbers are lower the average over the globe and over a year at the top of atmosphere for incoming and outgoing radiation is about 240w m 2 strictly speaking it is incoming radiation absorbed because about 30 of incoming is reflected by clouds and the earth s surface check out the numbers in the earth s energy budget this is all measured by satellites note what is very important about this is that the radiation in and out at the top of atmosphere balance down at the earth s surface many other effects are going on convection latent heat evaporation and condensation of water as well as radiation energy in energy out is true everywhere that no heating or cooling is going on but it s not necessarily true that radiation in radiation out at the surface or in the atmosphere as other ways exist of losing or gaining energy at the top of atmosphere there is no convection and no water vapor so energy can only be moved by radiation hopefully that makes sense read on 3 the most popular you are creating energy since there is no new energy being put into the system and the amount of energy being put in will over the long term equal exactly the amount of energy coming out all you get at most is a short term fluctuation if i am wrong then you have invented perpetual motion this is a common theme and a recurring one many people think that the theory is effectively claiming that co2 is creating energy obviously that doesn t happen therefore qed the greenhouse effect doesn t occur the defence rests well let s take a look i ll first give an analogy this is an illustration not a proof you have a house without a roof it has a heater on the floor and there aren t any other sources of energy the temperature being measured is around 10 c it s a bit chilly someone puts a roof on the house what happens to the temperature it goes up maybe now it is 15 c no it can t have gone up the roof doesn t create energy so the temperature must still be 10 c of course no one reading this is confused but when i gave that example i had people still trying to demonstrate that this analogy wasn t valid suppose there was no energy source the roof or insulation wouldn t create any heat true and if the earth had no sun heating it co2 wouldn t have any heating effect at the earth s surface either what is the theory claiming for co2 it isn t creating energy it isn t adding energy to the climate system it is absorbing and re emitting energy so instead of all the radiation from the earth s surface simply heading up and out of the top of atmosphere instead some proportion is being redirected back down to the earth s surface like a roof but different the point is there is no violation of energy conservation or any other law of thermodynamics the longwave energy being re emitted back down to the earth s surface as you can see in the 2nd graphic above simply increases the surface temperature it increases the surface temperature above what it would be if this effect didn t exist like a roof on a house 4 your radiation numbers are wrong referring to my upwards longwave radiation from the surface of the earth is around 390w m 2 nyet at 0 c radiance is about 320 watts m 2 at 30 c its about 550 watts m 2 you can t just average the numbers from low to high across the globe and get the right answer either you get a curve with a peak or high about mid day but you also get a curve with a peak at the equator as compared to the poles the average between the lows and the highs is not the average of the curve this is a very good point and worth covering in a little detail how do we come up with the number 390w m 2 in the first place there is a relationship between temperature and radiation which is very well established known as the stefan boltzman law you can see it at the start of the maths section in part one energy radiated is proportional to the 4th power of absolute temperature yuck before you skip forward here are some example numbers i used the amazing and recommended spectralcalc com 20 c 253k or 4 f 232 w m 2 10 c 263k or 14 f 271 w m 2 0 c 273k or 32 f 315 w m 2 10 c 283k or 50 f 364 w m 2 20 c 293k or 68 f 418 w m 2 30 c 303k or 86 f 477w m 2 so our commentor was correct as to the method if you want to work out how much energy is radiated from the surface of the earth you can t just assume you can use the earth s average annual global temperature 15 c to get the average radiation of 390w m 2 this is true because the relationship is non linear see how the radiation increases more and more for the same 10 c or 10k rise in temperature luckily this work has already been done for us it doesn t actually change the result that much average annual global radiation from the earth s surface 396 w m 2 see note 1 at end what s very interesting about this number is that it is nowhere near 240w m 2 that number would represent a temperature of 18 c about 0 f so in fact energy radiated upwards from the earth s surface is a lot higher than energy radiated out of the top of atmosphere what s going on 5 if your numbers are correct which i doubt the earth will ignite i m not going to go check your numbers but just consider what you are saying your claim is that 156 w m 2 is being retained as extra energy kept inside the atmosphere over the long term if you are right the planet should ignite in a few days so we saw that the energy out of the system from the top of atmosphere is only 240w m 2 and energy radiated up from the earth s surface is 396w m 2 so if the claim is correct that this missing energy is re radiated back down to the surface then simple arithmetic demonstrates that the energy will keep piling up and the earth will ignite obviously that won t happen qed the theory or the measurements are wrong the defence rests except let s look a bit closer the measurements are right of course so in fact anyone disputing the theory needs their own theory to explain the numbers if we add extra radiation to the surface of the earth what happens simple it heats up as the surface heats up it radiates more energy back out so it keeps heating up until the energy being lost is balanced by the energy coming in the point at which the earth s temperature will stop changing is the value at which the outgoing radiation from the top of the atmosphere is balanced by the sun s incoming radiation absorbed well that s why the earth s temperature is not 18 c with no greenhouse effect it would be if there was nothing absorbing the upwards longwave radiation and re radiating some of it downwards the radiation from the surface of the earth would only be 240w m2 a surface temperature of around 18 c 0 f conclusion to many people it seems like a wacky theory easily refuted by common sense the basic laws of thermodynamics or the fact that the earth hasn t apparently heated up for a decade i didn t comment on that one the climate is very complex many factors affect climate the theory wasn t invented by the ipcc or al gore he only invented the internet and it wasn t formed from a desire to understand why the earth warmed up over much of the 20th century the theory was developed by physicists going back to the start of the 20th century well probably before but i m haven t studied the history of the subject thousands of physicists have studied the subject dissected it written papers on it and improved on it even the many skeptics of what has become known as agw in its ipcc form are not skeptics of these concepts e g lindzen roy spencer john christy i don t want to try and pull the argument from authority because i don t really accept it myself but pause for thought if you are still not convinced if you still think this theory magically creates energy from somewhere or violates the 2nd law of thermodynamics and ask yourself if 99 99 of physicists past and present believe this effect is real and measurable how likely is it that none of them realized there is a basic error in the theory note 1 the value of 396w m2 is calculated in trenberth and kiehl s 2008 update to their 1997 paper earth s annual global mean energy budget in the 2008 paper they comment that the upwards radiation from the surface cannot be assumed by averaging the temperature arithmetically and then calculating the radiation so they take data on the surface temperature around the globe and re calculate depending on exactly the method the values come in at 396 4 396 1 393 4 they stick with 396w m 2 read full post predictability with a pinch of salt please part one posted in climate models on february 13 2010 9 comments introduction there are two themes in current consensus climate science perhaps it s not apparent that they are contradictory one side climate is predictable the other tipping points ahead perhaps very close this subject isn t easy to untangle and no one really knows what the answer is what this post is about is one of those tipping points and how complex climate really is this post is about the thermohaline circulation also known in shorthand as the thc thermohaline sounds like a tough concept to understand but although the concepts involved don t require any special science knowledge they aren t immediately obvious thermo relates to temperature and haline relates to saline or salt energy balance and the conveyor belt when you consider the difference between the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing longwave radiation by latitude you start to realize how the earth s climate moves heat around more specifically how heat moves from the equator to the poles solar radiation vs outgoing longwave radiation against latitude atmospheric science for environmental scientists hewitt jackson this graphic demonstrates the calculated solar radiation in versus latitude against the radiation out from the earth s surface longwave radiation in short the equator receives a lot more energy compared with the poles because the sun is comparatively overhead a lot more therefore the atmosphere and the oceans transport heat from the equator to the poles here s another graphic of the same imbalance energy received and radiated by latitude interestingly the oceans and the atmosphere share the heat transfer more or less 50 50 energy transfer polewards by oceans and atmosphere taylor 2005 now we see that the ocean takes a big role in moving energy to the poles let s look a closer look at what drives the ocean currents temperature and salt two obvious factors that push the ocean currents around are winds and the coriolis effect the coriolis effect has to do with the fact that earth is rotating every explanation i have seen of it seems like a recipe for confusion if you haven t already spent some time on it so i m not going to repeat that problem take a look at the link above if you want to understand it better but the major factor that drives ocean currents is density what determines density temperature and salinity density vs salinty and temperature taylor 2005 the first time you see this kind of chart your eyes glaze over and you quickly move on to the next section but let s try and make it easier to understand density changes as cold seawater becomes less saline here s one example cold water almost freezing becomes less saline this might happen if a lot of ice was melting see the change in density 1 026 to 1 003kg m 3 it doesn t seem like much but it is very significant if you take the reverse direction as water freezes it leaves most of its salt behind so the water becomes much more saline and the density goes in the other direction the therm...