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the ndp may have done well in quebec but it didn t do so hot in the prairies aside from edmonton strathcona the ndp was shut out in the saskatchewan and alberta the ndp lost two in manitoba one each to the grits tories results elections canada cbc globe mail posted on may 3 2011 may 3 2011 author jeffmd tags 2011 canadian election 212 comments on canadian election results thread 2 canadian election results thread 1 11 30pm ssp s home riding of edmonton strathcona is held by the ndp the only non tory seat in alberta 11 21pm almost two hours after polls closed in quebec the bloc finally has its first seat haute gaspesie la mitis matane matapedia jeffmd here i think i figured out why i like quebec riding names it lets me pretend i stil know french 11 13pm harper should be grateful for ridings like bramlea gore malton 37 con 32 ndp 27 lib and scaborough centre 36 con 31 ndp 31 lib notably the tory vote actually dropped 1 from 2008 but the ndp lib split hands the seat to harper 10 54pm the decimation of the grits and bloc is stunning libs elected leading in 31 ridings the bloc is leading in only 4 10 51pm cbc is now calling a conservative majority for stephen harper 10 50pm moving further west green party leader elizabeth may is out to an early lead in saanich gulf islands over tory incumbent gary lunn 10 45pm tories now leading or elected in 165 ridings tory majority looking more and more likely 10 37pm tories are leading or elected in 158 ridings now 155 is the magic number for a majority 10 34pm in my home riding of edmonton strathcona incumbent ndper linda duncan is leading by a 53 40 margin but a lot of votes are outstanding 10 33pm the power of vote splitting brampton mississauga could go from 7 8 liberal to an 8 0 tory shutout 10 29pm tories are now leading in 150 ridings nds in 104 liberals in just 32 bq 4 10 28pm hah in just toronto alone the tories are leading in 9 of 23 toronto seats up from 0 10 22pm michael ignatieff is losing to a tory and gilles duceppe is losing to a new democrat interesting times 10 18pm things are just moving so fast right now but we re really on the cusp of a conservative majority government with an extremely robust ndp opposition 10 12pm cbc has projected that the ndp will overtake the liberals as the official opposition in parliament harper has a government but we re still unsure whether or not he s won a majority 10 07pm checking in on the party leaders grit leader michael ignatieff is leading by 1 vote in his toronto riding of etobicoke lakeshore a few ridings east in toronto danforth ndp leader jack layton has 64 with just one poll reporting in laurier sainte marie bloc leader gilles duceppe finds himself in 3rd nothing yet from harper s calgary southwest or green party would be elizabeth may s saanich gulf islands 10 00pm results in from the atlantic provinces pei steady at 3 lib 1 con newfoundland and labrador contrary to earlier reports the tories didn t get shut out here 4 lib 2 ndp 1 con net shift of two from the grits to ndp libs do hold avalon though nova scotia 4 con 3 ndp 2 lib with two more libs leading would be a shift of one from the libs to the ndp new brunswick 7 con 1 lib 1 ndp with one more tory leading would be a net shift of two lib con polls are finally closing in all of canada at 10pm eastern we ll soon get our first verified election results at that point hang hold on to your butts results elections canada cbc globe mail posted on may 3 2011 may 3 2011 author james l tags 2011 canadian election 235 comments on canadian election results thread 1 dra election data for il mn nv az thanks to rougemapper we have election data for illinois presidential he s sent me data for a couple more states so i ll be looking at those in the next couple of days and now also from rougemapper az mn nv also de me and nh have block groups a couple of people have had trouble with the app not launching even though they have the correct version of silverlight if you run into this try deleting the silverlight application storage if you load any silverlight app right click to get to a silverlight dialog box go to the application storage tab and delete storage for gardow com thank you to everyone who has contributed and thank you so much davidnyc posted on may 3 2011 may 3 2011 author dgb 43 comments on dra election data for il mn nv az canadian election predictions thread polls have closed in newfoundland but we likely won t hear any concrete results for a little while yet so we still have plenty of time to discuss your predictions for canada s 41st federal election later on we ll be blogging live from edmonton strathcona stick around this could get pretty crazy as mentioned in the comments terje in particular explains the situation well canada has a rather draconian election reporting law that prevents media outlets from reporting results until polls have closed in all parts of the country that means that we won t see any official results until 10pm eastern stuff may leak out on twitter about the atlantic and maritime provinces but little else until that magic hour wikipedia has a list of contentious ridings here per wikipedia here s a breakdown of seats in the current parliament by party and province posted on may 3 2011 may 3 2011 author james l tags 2011 canadian election 152 comments on canadian election predictions thread ca columbia law plans mapped and reviewed columbia law school announced last week that they were releasing state by state redistricting plans that would include non partisan legally defensible maps that states can use these maps were released and redistricting partners dove right in to see how useful or legally defensible they were the results were a mixed bag some districts showed interesting choices of how to pair communities of interest and some addressed real problems already being discussed at commission hearings however there were significant data shortcomings mirroring some concerns raised the last time a group outside of california tried to draw our districts visit http redistrictingpartners c to see the maps ethnic concerns the greatest concern with the columbia plan is the lack of sophistication when dealing with latino vra concerns instead of using the citizen voting age population cvap figures they used the more readily available 18 latino numbers this however artificially inflates the eligible voter population within districts that require preclearance or could be the subject of lawsuits in fact the department of justice has already released a federal register stating that they will consider a district to have retrogressed if they fail to maintain the same minority percentage of overall population 18 population and cvap the columbia law media release boasted 14 majority minority seats under their plan in fact they have 17 districts with more than 50 overall latino population but looking at cvap the number plummets to 3 with an additional two more within the margin of error 1 while the latino concern is a significant flaw the columbia plan did reconnect communities that had been divided in previous decades and create a single majority minority african american congressional seat in los angeles this could be a double edged sword as creating this seat could cause another african american held seat to move into more latino territory incumbent displacement in this plan 18 incumbents are paired in districts creating 9 newly vacant seats without residency restrictions these members are portable but the larger question for them is finding a nearby vacant district with an appealing partisan advantage incumbent republicans lungren gallegly calvert and hunter find themselves in seats with a new democratic majority while loretta sanchez finds herself in a republican seat in the attached data table the incumbent who lives within the district is listed but an alt field shows the likely member of congress who will move into this district this is done only in cases where the member has been moved out of a majority of their current district and that district is now vacant county city choices while it is inevitable that the final plan will include city and county splits this plan seems to avoid splits as long as possible resulting in fewer splits however when splits are made they are horrific long beach is split into three parts it is less than one district in population the ventura county border is crossed in three districts there are a few seats that include multiple districts in the area of la orange riverside san diego and san bernardino because of the unavoidable population patterns a line drawer could chose to make a nice plan with a couple really ugly districts or make all districts a tiny bit ugly and avoid any major violations of the prop11 and prop 20 principles this plan chose the former creating a few districts that do not pass the smell test numbering the ability to understand these maps is slightly undercut by the sometimes random numbering this however could give us practice before the commission plan is revealed as they could number in a completely different fashion for these maps and district tables it is best to think of the incumbent or cities in the plan not the district number maps and data the first set of maps are overviews of each region of the state the data tables go through the demographics and political data for each district to view the maps visit http redistrictingpartners c posted on may 3 2011 author paulmitche11 1 comment on ca columbia law plans mapped and reviewed nv 02 it s a ballot royale great news for us straight from jon ralston rossjmiller law is very clear no primary election how are candidates picked by people or small group open to all candidates what are the chances that sharron angle can resist this juicy opportunity update another notable tidbit there will be no filing fee also ralston reports that dem state treasurer kate marshall will run in the special update david more here the gop unsurprisingly says it may sue miller s formal legal opinion is here pdf posted on may 2 2011 may 2 2011 author james l tags kate marshall nv 02 sharron angle 53 comments on nv 02 it s a ballot royale wa gov mckenna r leads inslee in surveyusa poll surveyusa for king5 4 27 28 registered voters no trendlines jay inslee d 41 rob mckenna r 48 undecided 11 jay inslee d 44 dave reichert r 46 undecided 10 chris gregoire d inc 40 rob mckenna r 52 undecided 7 chris gregoire d inc 44 dave reichert r 48 undecided 8 moe 4 no doubt most media outlets are going to run this poll with a omg rob mckenna beats chris gregoire headline pardon my french but give me a fucking break while gregoire is legally entitled to run for a third term that just isn t done in washington no one has attempted it since dan evans back in the 1970s and she isn t fundraising but keeping a vague air of mystery about her plans to ward off lame duck itis in her dealings with the legislature even if she wanted to her approvals would sensibly preclude her from running 37 61 in this poll as she s shed considerable support on her left with recent actions an annual budget heavy on education cuts and just last week a partial veto of a medical marijuana dispensary bill add all that up and anyone in washington with two brain cells to rub together knows she isn t running well with that said the other numbers from this poll confirm my suspicions that this is going to be a difficult hold for the democrats as both ag rob mckenna who s been running for this job for about eight years and rep dave reichert who just poked his head up about this job in the last week have leads over likely dem nominee rep jay inslee i suspect the mckenna inslee disparity may be largely because of name rec although susa doesn t provide approvals on anybody other than gregoire so i can t compare inslee also has an avenue of attack that he s only just started using concerning the one flagrantly partisan thing that the otherwise blandly non controversial mckenna has done as ag which is to sign onto the multi state lawsuit against health care reform even taking those factors into account though mckenna is the gop s best shot in decades at recapturing the governor s mansion given that he s one of the last of a dying breed a quasi moderate from the suburbs of king county and no although reichert also meets those criteria too i just don t see him running for this the party establishment wouldn t stand for it in case you re wondering about methodology the usually autodialer only surveyusa did include a cellphone user sample as part of the poll you may recall that they did this several times in their polling of wa sen last year to account for problems with reaching landline free younger voters a problem which has seemed particularly pronounced in tech savvy washington it didn t seem to help much in 2010 though as surveyusa like the other robo callers still saw the murray rossi race as a tied game while local traditional method pollsters at uw correctly spotted the 5 point margin posted on may 2 2011 author crisitunity tags chris gregoire dave reichert jay inslee polls rob mckenna surveyusa wa gov 25 comments on wa gov mckenna r leads inslee in surveyusa poll ssp daily digest 5 2 senate mt sen tpm s headline says it all 23rd richest member of congress i m struggling like everyone else those words were indeed uttered by republican rep denny rehberg who is worth anywhere from 6 598 014 and 56 244 998 it s not quite fred heineman but it s not exactly far off either nm sen pdf republican robo pollster magellan has a new survey out for the gop primary they find ex rep heather wilson at 59 lt gov john sanchez at 17 teabagging businessman greg sowards at 2 11 other and 11 undecided the supposedly rino wilson has what seems like preposterously good favorables 84 12 among members of her own party the linked pdf has faves for a whole host of other candidates including some who weren t tested in the head to heads nv sen joe trippi s really becoming the go to guy for rich vanity candidates whom no one wants to see run isn t he fresh off the vomit caked jeff greene debacle trippi s been hired by wealthy lawyer byron georgiou who so far as refused entreaties to clear a path for rep shelley berkley georgiou s also arranged to bring on dan hart a local consultant and pollster paul maslin as in fairbank maslin wa sen wa gov republican rep dave reichert suggested back in january that he might be thinking about a gubernatorial run something he affirmed in a recent interview with a local tv station what seems to be new is that he says he s also thinking about a run against sen maria cantwell i can t imagine that working out well for him and he s also quoted as saying that the hardest part of adjusting to life in dc was getting used to sitting on the airplane if he s still grumbling about those transcontinental flights all these years later then it sounds to me like he d prefer the governor s mansion to the senate gubernatorial wv gov rick thom...