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analysis of impacts of the great depression on the long term growth potential of the advanced economies highlights the following points first the impact of weak bank balance sheets and increased risk aversion on the part of lenders in the wake of the depression was mainly felt by smaller younger firms but with large firms enjoying access to other sources of funding and retained earnings growing reasonably strongly after 1933 it is hard to conclude that this had a first order impact on capital spending or output growth second there is little evidence that increased public debt or policy uncertainty had major effects in depressing investment third while there was extensive structural and long term unemployment in the 1930s this also declined relatively quickly once sustained recovery set in fourth the crisis was also an opportunity as firms used the downtime created by the depression to reorganize and modernize their operations in ways that boosted productivity growth but creating a policy environment where they had an incentive to do so required political compromise of a sort that can be difficult given the polarizing effects of financial crises mark twain is alleged to have once said history does not repeat itself but it does rhyme 38 there is no certainty in other words that the impact on long term growth potential of the 2007 2009 financial crisis will be the same as the impact of the great depression indeed the more carefully policy makers study depression experience and the more successfully they avoid the errors of their predecessors the more likely it is that the aftermaths of the two crises will differ top of page notes 1 consider canada in 1983 1985 france in 1994 1995 germany in 1976 1979 and the savings and loan crisis in the united states in the early 1980s for example 2 this observation highlights another issue in the wake of the crisis the us will have to rebalance away from the production of housing in favor of merchandize and away from consumption in favor of net exports a decline in the us real exchange rate that makes the country s merchandize exports more attractive to foreign consumers is a necessary part of this adjustment that decline can occur either through a fall in us dollar prices deflation or depreciation of the dollar exchange rate this way of putting it makes clear why american policy makers prefer a controlled depreciation of the dollar the problem is that other countries are reluctant to see their currencies rise at the time of writing recovery in the other advanced economies is weak making stronger currencies the last thing that they need emerging markets for their part are reluctant to abandon a model of export led growth that has served them well they see export oriented manufacturing as a locus of learning by doing and productivity spillovers and worry that their competitiveness would be damaged by excessive real appreciation but absent nominal exchange rate changes we will either see the same adjustment occur through other less desirable mechanisms deflation in the us and or a further acceleration of inflation in emerging markets or else the us current account deficit will widen again since us indebtedness to the rest of the world cannot rise indefinitely especially if the denominator of the foreign debt gdp ratio is growing more slowly sooner or later something will have to give presumably in the form of a sudden sharp fall in the value of the dollar like that warned of by some observers before the crisis this however is the subject of another paper 3 see for example imf 2009 4 see reinhart and rogoff 2009 and bordo and landon lane 2010 5 if one mechanically uses statistical methods to pinpoint the break in the trend the computer places it in 1989 midway through the period when the authors of the imf fit a single linear trend see eichengreen et al 2011 6 businesses that they often liquidated subsequent to the crisis on explanations for the over investment phenomenon in korea in this period see lee and wong 2003 7 thus robb and robinson 2009 show that start ups rely on bank credit for their financing needs to an unusual extent all the high profile attention attracted by the venture capital industry notwithstanding 8 their sample of banks is for new york city 9 see national industrial conference board 1932 and kimmel 1939 10 the two occasions that saw upticks in loans outstanding were 1939 and 1940 1941 which were the only times in the 1930s when late 1920s levels of capacity utilization were reached and a substantial number of firms felt compelled to borrow for capacity expansion weiland 2009 11 see koo 2009 12 a substantial fraction of the firms in question reported that they would not have experienced comparable difficulties in more normal financial market conditions the 1939 study concluded that the majority of loan refusals reflected changes in the instructions given loan officers bank policy and not the condition of the borrowing firm or its industry 13 in other words it could reduce growth by as much as a fifth 14 see bank for international settlements 2010 in any case there has been agreement since the earlier institute of international finance analysis for better or worse on scaling back proposed increases in capital and liquidity requirements and delaying their implementation for as long as 7 years 15 the precise increase averages 86 16 with the deficit currently running at 10 of national income the us debt gdp ratio is now reaching the 90 threshold where the authors argue that these growth reducing effects kick in with a vengeance 17 greece is a different story but the contrast is presumably instructive 18 another possibility is that investment is depressed in the post crisis period not so much by the crisis itself as the nature of the pre crisis investment boom residential construction will remain depressed in the wake of a housing boom that leaves the residential sector overbuilt investment will be less productive and slower to recover insofar as complementary investments made before the crisis embody an economic structure and expectations that no longer prevail to continue with the case of housing new investment is more costly insofar as prior encumbrances how the land was subdivided for what uses it was zoned are difficult to change and when existing structures have to be demolished in order for new ones can be built field 2009a suggests that such encumbrances excessive sub development poorly planned infrastructure investment depressed the construction sector all through the 1930s developers wishing to build multiple units within a subdivision had to incur heavy costs to reassemble subdivided acreage something complicated by the sheer difficulty of tracking down the individual plot owners demolish inappropriate improvements and adapt preexisting site hookups and street layouts one is reminded inevitably of recent arguments about the difficulty of replacing mcmansions with green housing 19 more detailed analyses by dowling et al 2010 and weidner and williams 2010 suggest that the natural rate of unemployment has risen by 1 5 to 2 8 points since the onset of the crisis purely as a result of the mismatch problem 20 on this see katz 2010 21 data taken from british labour statistics 22 the alternative interpretation now largely discredited on this see hatton 1985 and eichengreen 1987 is that generous unemployment benefits discouraged search activity one hears today the same argument that the extension of unemployment benefits has shifted up the level of unemployment for any level of vacancies but federal reserve bank of atlanta 2010 shows that even making a generous adjustment for this factor is not enough to eliminate the shift in the beveridge curve there is an analogous set of arguments for the us centering on new deal policies cole and ohanian 2004 for which this author does not hold much brief 23 a further notable feature of the series is the relatively high level of mismatch in the mid 1920s this being a period when commentators referred to the international competitive difficulties of britain s old industries the so called staple trades textiles coal and iron and steel and shipbuilding the literature on the interwar period emphasized spatial as well as industrial mismatch pointing to the much higher unemployment rate in outer than inner britain as an additional dimension of mismatch that slowed labor market adjustment inner britain being london the southeast the southwest and the midlands even adjusting for differences in industrial composition some regions displayed persistently higher unemployment rates hatton 1986 this suggests that the problem was more than just the fact that some industries are more cyclically sensitive than others 24 see leonhardt 2010 at the time of writing the share of the unemployed out of work for more than 27 weeks was nearly double that of any other post world war ii recession 25 woytinksy 1942 p 67 26 he reports for cities like buffalo that the share of the unemployed who had been out of work 1 year or more rose from 9 in 1929 to 21 in 1930 to 43 in 1931 to 60 in 1932 and 68 in 1932 the share of the male labor force in this condition rose from 0 5 in 1929 to 20 in 1932 27 machin and manning 1998 provide survey evidence from 1990s europe that individuals self worth deteriorates as a result of unemployment 28 marienthal was banned by the nazis soon after publication and all extant copies were burned the republication is jahoda et al 1972 in the psychological effects in particular see eisenberg and lazarsfeld 1938 a companion study for the modern period is fryer and fagan 2003 29 george orwell described the effect in the road to wigan pier it is only when you lodge in streets where nobody has a job where getting a job seems about as probable as owning an aeroplane and much less probable than winning 50 pounds in the football pool that you begin to grasp the changes that are being worked out in our civilization 30 and also because of the perceived rise in uncertainty associated with the structural transformation of the economy at the same time they provide evidence that firms were able to learn about the nature of these shifts and redirect their r d investments by the late 1930s 31 by field s 2006 calculations tfp growth averaged 1 08 in 1900 1919 2 02 in 1919 1929 2 31 in 1929 1951 1 29 in 1941 1948 1 90 in 1948 1973 0 34 in 1973 1989 and 0 78 in 1989 2000 32 see jacoby 1985 33 field 2006 p 216 34 see bordo et al 1998 the reader will have noted that that this is the opposite of how the policy response of the 1930s is characterized by the regime uncertainty school the two views can probably be reconciled in practice policy reforms that are supportive of growth in the longer run can still heighten uncertainty in the short run making immediate post crisis recovery more difficult it is not inconceivable that both effects resulted from the great depression 35 see inter alia tomassi 2004 and cavallo and cavallo 2008 36 see matthews et al 1982 37 broadberry and crafts 1990 p 603 38 twain scholars have disputed the accuracy of the attribution top of page references allen rgd and thomas b 1939 the supply of engineering labour under boom conditions economic journal 49 259 275 article bank for international settlements 2010 an assessment of the long term economic impact of the new regulatory framework bis basel booth a and glynn s 1975 unemployment in the interwar period a multiple problem journal of contemporary history 10 610 628 article bordo m goldin c and white e 1998 the defining moment the great depression and the american economy university of chicago press chicago il bordo m and landon lane j 2010 the global financial crisis is it unprecedented unpublished manuscript rutgers university august bowers c 2010 skilled labor shortage frustrates employers www cbsnews com 11 august broadberry s and crafts n 1990 the impact of the depression of the 1930s on productivity potential in the united kingdom european economic review 34 599 607 article broadberry s and crafts n 2003 uk productivity performance from 1950 to 1979 a restatement of the broadberry crafts view economic history review 56 718 735 article calomiris c and mason j 2003 consequences of bank distress during the great depression american economic review 93 937 947 article calomiris c and wilson b 2004 bank capital and portfolio management the 1930s capital crunch and the scramble to shed risk journal of business 77 421 456 article cavallo a and cavallo e 2008 are crises good for long term growth the role of political institutions idb working paper no 643 august cole h and ohanian l 2004 new deal policies and the persistence of the great depression a general equilibrium analysis journal of political economy 112 779 816 article crafts nfr 1987 long term unemployment in britain in the 1930s economic history review 2nd ser xl 418 432 dimsdale nh nickell sj and horsewood n 1989 real wages and unemployment in britain during the 1930s economic journal 99 271 292 article dowling t estevao m and tsounta e 2010 the great recession and structural unemployment in united states selected issues country report no 10 248 imf washington dc july eichengreen b 1987 unemployment in interwar britain dole or doldrums oxford economic papers 39 597 623 eichengreen b perkins d and shin k 2011 from miracle to maturity the growth of the korean economy harvard asia center for the korea development institute cambridge ma eisenberg p and lazarsfeld pf 1938 the psychological effects of unemployment psychological bulletin 35 358 390 article federal deposit insurance corporation 2008 historical statistics on banking fdic washington dc federal reserve bank of atlanta 2010 employment survey delivers jolts quarterly review of the federal reserve bank of atlanta spring 6 17 field aj 2006 technological change and u s productivity growth in the interwar years journal of economic history 66 203 236 article field aj 2009a uncontrolled land development and the duration of the depression in the united states journal of economic history 52 785 805 article field aj 2009b do economic downturns have a silver lining unpublished manuscript university of santa clara november friedman m and schwartz a 1963 a monetary history of the united states 1865 1960 princeton university press for the national bureau of economic research princeton nj fryer d and fagan r 2003 toward a critical community psychological perspective on unemployment and mental health research american journal of community psychology 32 89 96 article pubmed furceri d and mourougane a 2009 the effect of financial crises on potential output new empirical evidence oecd economics department working paper no 699 oecd paris may hatton tj 1985 the british labor market in the 1920s a test of the search turnover approach explorations in economic history 22 257 270 article hatton tj 1986 structural aspects of unemployment in britain between 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