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e and the massive growth of sms but maybe not aware of how much of a golden egg it became for the mobile industry the same informa report shows that sms remains a very popular technology however worldwide sms traffic was up year on year by around 50 per cent to more than 620 billion messages sent during the quarter sms revenues were up 23 per cent over the same period and a report from uk based research firm portio research suggests that sms will remain the most widely used messaging format for some years to come with revenues estimated at 50bn by 2010 driven by almost 2 38 trillion messages to select just 2 random articles when we talked to the marketing teams to get dimensioning numbers they were either oblivious to sms or just didn t see it as a major revenue generator so we would just add in a single sms centre for the network and move on it wasn t worth spending time on the detail this didn t matter as even if they had given forecasts of high usage we would have matched spend to revenues so there wouldn t have been much of an impact on capital expenditure capex until it was needed and had revenues to pay for it when sms did start to take off there was a bit of a scramble but as it is a store and foreward technique and instant delivery was never promised it didn t realy matter a few engineers made extra money during that period and some smaller companies grew like topsy to meet demand but no real harm done it is also worth noting that in 1994 the engineering team i worked in was given a briefing by the orange marketing team in this briefing they predicted that uk mobile penetration in the uk would top out at around 30 by the year 2000 and orange would have a 20 share as it happens penetration was approaching 100 by the year 2000 so why am i telling you all this well apart from general interest there is a lesson in central planning to be learned when i say we did all this planning i mean some seriously intelligent people i worked with a number of management consultancy companies at the time and they were the ones making the forecasts on mobile demand most of the people had mba s from some of the top management schools including insead many of them also had years of telecoms experience as well they were also working for some very hard nosed perceptive and very rich clients these people were focused on one thing making money if they it wrong then companies would lose billions of s and they still managed to get something as fundamental as mobile forecasts wrong fortunately for the companies involved they undercooked how much money was to be made but when they get it wrong its very expensive ask hutchison about its 3 operation here in the uk canning fok denies that the launch of a mobile broadband service is the last chance for hutchison whampoa s loss making 3 mobile business today he is desperate to convince the outside world that the 25bn gamble 3 has placed on europe s third generation telephony market will eventually pay off they are still losing money but not quite as fast if these seriously bright people with lots of experience can t always get it right what hope is there for us of our current crop of politicians and civil servants most of whom haven t done anything outside politics planning and managing a whole economy or even for that matter regulating the seriously bright people effectively and they have any political consideratios affecting their decision making as well me i would prefere to leave most of it to the seriously bright people and hard nosed business men and i include health deleivery in that statement as well no link as its behind a subscription wall posted by simon fawthrop at saturday december 13 2008 0 comments labels politics techie stuff friday december 12 2008 you won t often hear this from a yorkshireman well done mancunians posted by simon fawthrop at friday december 12 2008 0 comments bbc more or less as regular readers know i am always happy to bash the bbc especially the lightweights on radio 5 i may even call for it to be trimmed but as along as they produce programs like more or less its almost worth the licence fee on its own this week s program was excellent and exposed the nonsense behind the recent wild stories about sexual abuse of children a question of sexual or statistical abuse between 5 and 10 of girls suffer the most serious forms of sexual abuse according to reports based on a paper published this week in the lancet these are shocking figures but are they true we investigate whether the statistics really support the claims of a hidden epidemic you won t be surprised to hear that it was statistical abuse a meta study of a meta study of some very badly planned research the one report that claimed this abuse didn t even include the uk is its research i recommend getting it on your mp3 players as a podcast if you can t do get over there and catch the last program on iplayer and then make a date in your diary to listen to future programs posted by simon fawthrop at friday december 12 2008 0 comments ireland s 2nd refererendum and ever closer union guido is reporting that the eu has persuaded ireland to have a new referendum in his own inimical style my emphasis reports from brussels coming in suggest that ireland s political elite are allowing their arms to be twisted by the eu into ignoring the no vote in the referendum and having another one this comes as absolutely no surprise the undemocratic nature of the eu project has always been manifest it has a semblance of voting but the outcome is as pre determined as a soviet era party congress on the rare occasions when the project comes off the rails nothing not even the will of the people will stop it irish citizens were the only people in europe allowed to express their democratic will they said no the eu s dirty ratifiers won t accept that answer the bbc reports it a bit more sedately pointing out that ireland is seeking legally binding bribes assurances the mechanism for a second referendum is included in draft conclusions which are being presented by the current holders of the eu presidency france and which have been seen by the bbc according to the draft the irish government says it is committed to seeking ratification of the lisbon treaty by the end of october 2009 what guido misses and the bbc don t want to tell us that it is always inevitable that any country that rejects anything the slows down the integration of the eu will have to vote again and again until they get it right there will be some tinkering for the sake of face but no government can object and say no means no because membership of the eu obliges them to work towards ever closer union the treaty establishing the eec calls for it as part of membership objectives after the failure of the edc the economy which was less subject to national resistance than other areas became the focus of consensus in the field of supranational cooperation the establishment of the eec and the creation of the common market had two objectives the first was to transform the conditions of trade and manufacture on the territory of the community the second more political saw the eec as a contribution towards the functional construction of a political europe and constituted a step towards the closer unification of europe in the preamble the signatories of the treaty declare that determined to lay the foundations of an ever closer union among the peoples of europe this is why maggie always ended up losing and no matter what our politicians promise us they can t stop it they can promise referendums in order to help win elections but they are meaningless waffle although i voted to join the ec in 1975 i quickly became aware that something was wrong but just put it down to empire building politicians and bureaucrats i voted tory partly because i thought that they could tame the worst excesses of the ec eec eu only to see them embrace the eu it wasn t until i heard someone mention this ever closer union following the french no in their constitution referendum that i realised what was going on we have been hoodwinked conned or whatever phrase you prefer into a position where we can t block the progress towards a united states of europe we were promised this wouldn t happen in 1975 they lied it is for this reason that i have moved from being a skeptic but accepting staying in and changing from the inside to outright hostility and a belief that we need to get out immediately i shall be voting but not joining ukip at next summer s eu elections posted by simon fawthrop at friday december 12 2008 1 comments labels eu met police just dont get it on menezes death i caught most of sir paul stephenson s press conference following the open verdict on my way home and he just doesn t get it see it here there is some justification to the fog of war argument no matter how much you plan and train for these things something can and usually does go wrong i have have some sympathy for the policeman on the front line none of them go to work wanting to kill anyone let alone an innocent person and i am sure that they will lose sleep over it for the rest of their lives what was unacceptable and still is is the way the senior ranks colluded to hide the truth the way they tried to smear him is beneath contempt lawyers for the met questioned whether the brazilian s cocaine abuse and illegal immigration status could have contributed to what happened on july 22 they said the suspect s threatening and aggressive behaviour was like that of a suicide bomber when confronted by police asad rehman the family s campaign spokesman hit back at the claims about the 27 year old he said we have been taken aback by how the police decided to defend this case and the line that they have taken in terms of trying to muddy jean charles s name and diminish him as a person and make the shooting more acceptable he the defence lawyer was literally saying he was asking for it which i thought was pretty sickening there was also a leaked rumour just after the shooting that he was an illegal immigrant and that it was therefore somehow his own fault as idiotic blogs like this one attest if sir ian blair had put his hands up immediately and accepted it was a complete fuck up we could have had more respect for them paid compensation had a very quick inquiry in to what went wrong and hoped that we wont be the victims next time sir ian blair s belated sacking resignation was too little too late and anyone involved at a senior level in the events should be barred from applying for the promotion of any sort at least posted by simon fawthrop at friday december 12 2008 0 comments labels demezes police iraq finished job well done travelgall has written an excellent post about the excellent work our troops have done in iraq at a very british dude which i commend to all posted by simon fawthrop at friday december 12 2008 0 comments wednesday december 10 2008 daily telegraph letter s of the day being away from home and staying in a hotel i have more time for the papers i liked this one it sums up the governments our confusion about drugs and tobacco very nicely sir last week it was reported that illegal drug use was costing the nhs 15 billion a year 10 times the cost of treating smoking related illnesses as illegal drugs have never been displayed for sale or put in fancy packaging but always sold under the counter this method of marketing seems very effective as there are more illegal drug users now than legal tobacco users but then it is much easier to target the corner shop than the vast organised business of supplying illegal substances stephen leader chessington surrey on a personal level as a non smoker of nearly 24 years standing i sometimes partake in this little pleasure sir i will regret the disappearance of tobacco products from display in shops and supermarkets i take great pleasure in checking the price of packets of 20 king size filters they were 37 5 pence a packet when i gave them up mike cooper southport lancashire just in case anyone passing through doesn t understand my position on smoking and drugs i support the right of people to smoke i was against the banning of smoking in pubs and i support the legalisation of drugs i would though ban smoking outside posted by simon fawthrop at wednesday december 10 2008 2 comments labels smoking the way we live labour bashing welfare claimants without even a squeal from the bbc what gives another government head talking on radio 4 this morning 0816 the government s welfare reform plans designed to get more than a million people off benefits and into work are to be published work and pensions secretary james purnell discusses how benefit claimants can play their part in the economy two things struck me about it firstly what a soft ride he got if this had been the tories the interviewer would have been all over them trying to rip their heads off furthermore the studio would have had all the usual suspects from the unions and self appointed spokes people claiming how bad they were especially as we are having a recession secondly why now we ve had 12 years or so of growth without these initiatives wouldn t it have been easier then private industry is starting to shed jobs and the government is doing its best to saddle us with ever increasing debt and is hardly in a position to go around creating even more jobs that would pointless anyway as the non jobs would cost more than keeping them on welfare could it be that the government have tipped off the bbc and their other friends that this is just a move to placate the daily mail tendency in the run up to a general election posted by simon fawthrop at wednesday december 10 2008 0 comments labels politics older posts home subscribe to posts atom contact me thegreatsimpleton btinternet com blogs i read a vented spleen a very british dude an englishman s castle bag s rants between the hammer and anvil burning our money capitalists work critical faculty dojo dizzy thinks duff nosense england expects eu referendum free market fairy tales guido fawkes head of legal john redwood mp leg iron longrider mark wadsworth mediocracy mr eugenides old holborn prodicus shuggy s blog sinclair s musings speak you re branes stumbling and mumbling the custodian the cynical optimist the daily brute the devil s kitchen the fat bigot the magistrates blog the remittance man the thoughts of mrs smallprint tim worstall vickie verkie campaigns red kite over beacon hill by sue fawthrop stair hole dorset by sue fawthrop climate change low carbon kid wiliam briggs statistician climate skeptic 50 minute video climate skeptic flaws in wareming forecast video climate skeptic 9 minute video climate debate daily the reference frame tom nelson climate skeptic climate science climate resistance david and goliath lemnos greece by sue fawthrop left leaning blogs the yorkshire ranter neil harding antonia s blog labour home bryce canyon by sue fawthrop on 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