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n the bruins two best recruiting classes are listed in this graph as is evident there is a lot of year to year fluctuation in quality of recruiting classes light blue curve these ups and downs are not necessarily unexpected as bringing in a large class of top players one year may leave few if any available scholarships the next year to glean more general or smoothed trends i used loess regression yellow line for ucla the upper right graph presents the same kind of curves for duke finally the bottom graph compares duke s and ucla s smoothed curves although the magnitude of the difference has varied the blue devils have consistently out recruited the bruins over the past 30 years ucla s instability in coaching may well have played a large role here does ucla s post wooden ledger of six final four appearances and one national title represent a gross underperformance relative to what could reasonably be expected only six schools have more final four appearances than ucla in the post wooden era north carolina 14 duke 13 one under bill foster in 1978 plus krzyzewski s 12 kentucky 10 kansas 9 michigan state 9 and louisville 7 michigan is tied with ucla at 6 4 though not making final fours at a woodenesque level bruin teams have not exactly been doing badly over the past 44 years given ucla s six final four appearances post wooden is the school s one national title lower than would be expected to address this question i plotted for each school with at least one final four appearance from 1976 2019 its number of final four appearances x axis against its number of national titles y axis based on the past 44 years the best fit line in the above graph gives us the rough estimate that for every three appearances in the final four a team should win one national title ucla has made six appearances so by this standard the bruins should have won two national titles ucla is therefore underperforming in this sense but not egregiously so to what extent were bruin fans judging alford like ucla s immediate post wooden coaches in retrospect many bruin fans will probably find it ridiculous that gene bartow with a 51 10 836 record and final four appearance at ucla felt the need to find a job elsewhere after two years in westwood cunningham with his 50 8 862 record sincerely seemed to prefer administration over coaching but with greater fan support at ucla he might have stuck around longer fans harsh judgment of winning coaches who fail to replicate the success of legendary predecessors is not unique to bruin hoops nebraska fired football coaches frank solich 58 19 753 from 1998 2003 and bo pelini 67 27 713 from 2008 2014 after they could not win national championships like former cornhusker coaches bob devaney and tom osborne alford s winning percentage at ucla was 663 well below bartow s and cunningham s yet alford received five and one half years to prove himself alford had his critics among the fans throughout his bruin tenure but few presumably wanted him out after just two years in that sense alford was not treated as harshly as bartow and cunningham a writer on one website covering ucla sports argued strenuously that bruin fans were not unreasonable in their judgment of alford but rather they simply felt the program was no longer relevant in national college basketball circles and a new coach would be needed to reinstate ucla to the elite level in the post wooden era ucla has shown short bursts of national power 1995 2006 2008 and based on final four appearances has still been one of the top programs in the country over the past 44 years perennial national contention as in the wooden years seems a stretch at this point making the bursts of success more frequent and longer and keeping the droughts shorter is more plausible but won t be easy for new coach cronin at ucla with all the changes in the game over the past 40 years especially expansion of the tournament field and one and done players does it even make sense to speak of college basketball dynasties the above analyses and discussion accept the premise that a contemporary college basketball program can succeed if not at john wooden s level at least at stringing together a few consecutive national championships in fact two schools have won back to back titles post wooden duke in 1990 91 and 1991 92 and florida in 2005 06 and 2006 07 an additional two have won championships in two out of three seasons kentucky in 1995 96 and 1997 98 with an overtime loss in the title game in between and villanova in 2015 16 and 2017 18 so yes stretches of three or perhaps more years of consistent national championship contention are still achievable these would probably satisfy most of today s ucla fans however changes in the game over the past four decades make such stretches highly unlikely in my view for most of john wooden s days at ucla there were around two dozen teams in the ncaa tournament field and only one team per conference could get in in 1970 71 ucla s crosstown rival usc finished 24 2 both losses to ucla and was perhaps the second best team in the country but did not get in with many strong teams being excluded from the ncaa field back then things were certainly easier for those who made the field as the field grew over the years to its current 68 schools increasingly large numbers of teams from the power conferences were getting in if teams get hot in march it didn t matter what their regular season record was exhibit a being the 2010 11 uconn men who finished 9 th in their conference and still won the national title in the aforementioned espn com listing of all time best men s ncaa championship teams this uconn squad ranked 59th the second major change from wooden s time is of course the one and done phenomenon quite simply with the best players nationally going to the nba after one season it is very difficult if not impossible for most programs to develop the continuity needed for a dynastic run kentucky in 2011 12 and duke in 2014 15 won national titles with frosh laden teams but no team has done so since lonzo ball led ucla to a 31 5 record and sweet sixteen appearance in 2016 17 but left after that one year conclusion in the months leading to cronin s hiring my impression was that ucla fans would want an established head coach with a better ncaa postseason track record than alford s someone who can produce a sustained run of national contention like howland did but without the team dynamics spiraling out of control cronin is an established head coach but his ncaa postseason record is not better than alford s there s obviously no way to know at this point whether cronin can lead the bruins to national contention someone with final four experience would have been especially coveted but cronin lacks this one reported candidate for the bruin job tennessee s rick barnes took texas to the final four in 2003 but he decided to stick with the volunteers in fact ucla has only once been able in the post wooden era to hire a coach who took a previous school to the final four gene bartow 1 the mini banner pictured above which listed all ucla basketball championships to date was given out to all fans at a bruins game in the early 1980s i was a student there at the time the 1978 title was in women s basketball as denoted by the w 2 walton might theoretically have been able to enter the nba early under the 1971 spencer haywood ruling but he did not 3 mostly from the sporting news but also from athlon lindy s and street and smith s 4 vacated appearances e g louisville in 2012 and 2013 are not removed from these totals posted by alan at 7 23 pm no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday january 25 2019 harden mania houston rockets guard james harden has set the sports world ablaze as a one man scoring machine wednesday night in new york harden scored 61 points extending his streak of scoring at least 30 points to 21 consecutive contests game by game log it is the fourth longest such streak in nba history with only wilt chamberlain recording longer streaks of scoring 30 points 65 31 and 25 games the rockets host toronto tonight as harden seeks to keep lighting up the scoreboard despite all the attention harden has been getting one can question the value of his streak for at least three reasons first prodigious scoring averages don t necessarily equate to championships in fact wilt didn t start winning titles in 1966 67 with the sixers and 1971 72 with the lakers until his points per game came down and his shooting percentage went up perhaps suggesting that he and his coaches became more selective in the shots he would take also do you remember big scorer carmelo anthony leading the nuggets or knicks to the nba title neither do i houston is 15 6 over the 21 games of harden s 30 streak although only 5 5 over its last 10 so it would be hard to argue that the streak was hurting the team second has harden really elevated his performance as the concept of a momentum based hot hand would require or are his high scoring nights more the product of shot volume than efficiency with injuries to teammates chris paul and clint capela harden has been launching shots at an unprecedented rate for him so far this season harden has attempted 23 9 shots per game from the floor previously his highest single season shots per game average was 20 1 in 2017 18 looking at harden s three point attempts and success rate over the past 10 games from most to least recent one finds the following 5 20 250 6 13 462 8 19 421 5 19 263 6 15 400 1 17 059 8 16 500 6 16 375 6 15 400 and 5 17 294 the statistics are mixed but i would say volume is playing a large role in harden s scoring further pertaining to harden s large role in the rockets offense an espn com 5 on 5 discussion asks can james harden possibly keep this up this article discusses harden s high rate of unassisted shots and high usage rate third will it hurt houston over the long term to have harden playing as great a number of minutes as he currently is a fivethirtyeight article asks will james harden s hot streak burn him out this article documents among other things that harden is tied for the lead league in minutes per game at 37 his effective field goal percentage has declined in the fourth quarter of games over the past three seasons and teams with one player carrying a heavy usage load tend not to do well in the playoffs the most recent sports illustrated magazine features a lengthy article on harden and the rockets houston coach mike d antoni is quoted to the effect that he has no choice on playing harden such heavy minutes given the rockets slow start to the season we gotta win games we can t come in eighth in the western conference and get knocked out in the first round of course harden s scoring streak may just be an oddity brought about by the absence of some of the rockets leading players it will be interesting to see what happens when they come back posted by alan at 6 23 pm no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest older posts home subscribe to posts atom alan s original hot hand book new and used versions are available for 1 or so from independent vendors on amazon com click on book image to get there find the book hot hand at a library click here and scroll down on new page to see list of which libraries have the book hot hand electronic bibliography new july 2017 social media for hot hand news twitter authors den good reads streaks in the city series cleveland 1 los angeles 2 washington dc 3 boston 4 most viewed posts kyle korver approaches 100 straight games with at least one made three pointer kyle korver a 6 foot 7 shooting guard for the atlanta hawks has now hit at least one three point basket in 98 straight games a new recor this week s wall street journal interview with billy beane and bill james and the 2003 scottsdale arizona informal sports analytics conference in march 2003 i attended a small informal conference in scottsdale arizona strategically selected to coincide with spring training with buy hot hand book as a gift and get free video dedication from today cyber monday until december 24 if you buy the book hot hand as a gift for someone i will make a short video of myself dedic it s official pirates get first winning season since 1992 the pittsburgh pirates won their 82nd game of the season last night 1 0 over the texas rangers to ensure the steel city franchise s f pirates reach 80 wins a 5 2 win today at milwaukee has brought the pittsburgh pirates to an 80 57 record on the season one more win will ensure at least a break other hot hand sports statistics websites 82 games nba basketball am stat assn sports baseball almanac baseball guru baseball prospectus baseball reference baseball think factory basketball analytics associated with book basketball prospectus chance magazine clutch hitting links dartmouth streakiness page espn stats info blog hardball times harvard sports analysis collective inpredictable win probabilities by game situations journal of stat ed data journal of quantitative analysis in sports mit sloan sports analytics conference nba stuffer nylon calculus basketball retrosheet sabr sabermetric research blog sixteen wins sports reference blog stat muse tom tango wages of wins other hot hand sports statistics researchers jim albert chris albright kevin burke bruce burns john ezekowitz david gilden tom gilovich bill james franc klaassen jay koehler robin lock joshua miller dean oliver christopher rump adam sanjurjo gary smith hal stern robert wardrop chris wetzel citations of the hot hand website book apa monitor website of the month april 2002 bill james article book a mathematician at the ballpark book the mind of bill james boston globe cigar aficionado computers and operations research connecticut post january 2010 espn com true hoop blog math trek npr may 2005 audio npr september 2005 audio npr may 2010 audio new york times rob neyer espn com sb nation so california public radio sports illustrated on campus wall street journal online wired magazine online wisconsin engineer other streakiness related analyses and references autistic student jmac keeps hitting threes baseball individual performance streaks wikipedia baseball momentum heading into play offs hardball times bleacher report s 50 of the greatest streaks in sports history espn com s top individual streaks may 2005 espn com s top team streaks 2001 fooled by randomness book hot hand in nfl passing peyton manning how researchers discovered the basketball hot hand inside the book streaks page london review of books marketplace radio show audio nba 2005 06 hot hand stats streakiness of stock market tiger woods s grand slam chances 2002 tools for conducting and teaching about hot hand analyses major literature review bar eli et al 2006 binomial probability calculator runs test calculator formulas and tables for baseball hitting streaks hot hand bibliography hot hand teaching tips h...
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