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pricing that exposure and it repriced it hard as of may 2026 aem traded at around 42 times earnings versus a historical average near 14 ums at around 38 times versus 16 and frencken at around 29 times versus 11 i want to be direct with you about what this means because it would be dishonest to gloss over it if you had anchored on dividend yield in january 2026 you missed all of it none of these counters would have passed the screens we ran in class their yields are small or absent their earnings are cyclical and their current multiples price in an earnings recovery that has not fully arrived that is a real cost of the discipline you have just learned and pretending otherwise would insult your intelligence the question is what to do about it and my answer is nothing you cannot build a retirement income stream out of counters that pay you almost nothing and require you to be right about the ai capital expenditure cycle the market may well be correct that these businesses earn into their multiples it may also be wrong either way the exposure does not do the job you need done singapore is no longer a comfortable market for dividend investors when i started writing tree of prosperity assembling an sgx portfolio yielding 6 required patience but not much cleverness dozens of counters with decent balance sheets paid above 5 that is no longer true and i think you should hear it plainly rather than discover it slowly the banks re rating is the clearest illustration ocbc sits in your portfolio at 24 61 yielding 3 84 that is a good business well capitalized with room to continue returning capital it also pays you less than 4 now even though the same franchise yielded well above 5 not long ago the market has repriced quality income upward what remains cheap on a yield basis is more often than not cheap for a reason this is the structural shift singapore equities have become a market where good income is expensive and cheap income is fragile the gap in between is where your work has to happen now and it takes more effort than it used to reits remain the exception and that is where the bargains are while the sti was setting records the ftse st all share reit index fell 8 2 over 2026 to early september the two moved in opposite directions and that divergence is the single most useful fact in this letter the iedge s reit index now offers an average distribution yield of 6 3 to 6 4 the sector trades at roughly 0 86 times price to net asset value a 14 discount to stated book value with the 6 month t bill at about 1 70 the yield spread is close to 460 basis points historically spreads above 400 basis points have been attractive entry points for investors who can tolerate the associated volatility the weakness is driven by rates not operations markets are pricing at least one more federal reserve hike by the end of 2026 and the singapore 10 year government bond yield has risen about 0 53 percentage points over the past year to 2 38 rates are the weather that reits live in and the forecast turned hostile what did not turn hostile is the cash most s reits grew distributions year on year in the first half of 2026 with several posting double digit gains keppel dc reit and oue reit both posted double digit dpu growth prices fell while distributions rose that combination is precisely what expands the yield available to a buyer and it is why reits occupy five of the twelve slots in your portfolio three checks before you add to any reit position first the proportion of debt that is fixed rather than floating because a reit with 70 fixed rate debt is insulated in a way that one with 70 floating exposure is not second the interest coverage ratio and gearing indicate whether the distribution can survive a hostile refinancing third whether the discount to book is a mispricing or a judgment about the book itself a reit at 0 7 times nav because the market disbelieves the valuation is not a bargain it is a disagreement you have to win why your final portfolio has only twelve stocks you made a batch decision i want to put on the record because it was more rigorous than what i usually see you set a portfolio yield target above 6 and then refused to reach it the easy way the easy way was deep value every screen we ran surfaced counters trading below net cash anchun international at 30 5 cents against roughly 67 cents of cash and short term deposits per share fuxing china at three to four times earnings and 0 13 to 0 16 times book among the statistically cheapest names on sgx hl global where cash per share exceeds the share price asia enterprises nippecraft koyo vibropower on a spreadsheet these are the cheapest things in the market you eliminated all of them and your rejection notes were consistent severe illiquidity controlling shareholder influence no formal dividend policy and earnings that were project driven one off or negative the line one of you wrote on anchun was the sharpest thing produced in the whole exercise you are paying 30 5 cents for something holding roughly 67 cents of cash per share but you need management to eventually unlock it and cheap can stay cheap for a very long time cutting the deep value bucket removed most of the high yield candidates in one stroke twelve counters survived with a projected portfolio yield of 6 21 the five year backtest on that basket returns 19 91 annualized with a standard deviation of 12 02 a sharpe ratio of 1 41 against a 3 risk free rate and a maximum drawdown of 12 21 in october 2023 those are respectable numbers for a portfolio built to pay you not to beat an index twelve is fewer names than i would normally want be honest with yourself about what that means with twelve holdings a single suspended distribution costs you roughly 8 of your income the mitigation is that your cash flows come from genuinely different places including banking suburban retail healthcare property data centers fiber infrastructure energy steel regional beverages and two hong kong listings diversification is about the drivers not the count even so treat twelve as a starting point add names as your capital grows and as your watchlist throws up better entry yields putting it together batch 43 enters a market where the exciting money is in counters that do not pay you and the counters that do pay you have been marked down because of the interest rate cycle that is an uncomfortable position for a new dividend investor and i would rather you understood it now than felt it later on the evidence it is also a reasonable time to buy income a sector yielding 6 3 at a 14 discount to book with distributions still growing is not a market that hates your strategy it is a market that has temporarily marked it down the framework you learned holds buy businesses with durable earnings and a record of returning cash buy them when the yield is attractive relative to the alternatives check that the balance sheet can survive a bad refinancing spread the income across sectors so that no single rate decision can break it review the portfolio thoughtfully not obsessively persist the hardest part of this journey is not the analysis it is the first few years when the dividends are small next to your salary and the compounding has not yet become visible a 200 000 portfolio at 6 21 pays about 12 400 a year or a little over 1 000 a month that does not replace an income it buys your groceries it is still the beginning of what will eventually replace your income you will also be tempted repeatedly by the aems of the next few years someone in your circle will have made 500 while you collected 6 and they will mention it hold two facts in your head when that happens their return is unrealized until they sell and you have no idea what they did with the other 90 of their capital your portfolio is built to pay you whether the ai cycle continues or breaks and that is a different objective not an inferior one measure yourself against your income not against the index count the dividends received this year against the dividends received last year that number is the one that determines when you can stop working and it is the only scoreboard that has ever mattered in this course keep buying keep reading the annual reports keep the watchlist current and the cash ready for the days when the market offers you a better entry yield than it does today those days come around more often than you would think i am proud of the work every one of you put into batch 43 and the day 5 portfolio was among the most disciplined i have seen i look forward to hearing where your journeys take you as always my door remains open good luck and invest wisely christopher ng wai chung tree of prosperity 19 september 2026 posted by christopher ng wai chung at 8 37 pm 2 comments saturday september 12 2026 are local racists leaving money on the table in the stock market it s understandable why the government is concerned about local racism some hurtful comments were made about ethnic indian singaporeans in response to the disaster in nepal i m another case criticism of singapore s investments in air india attracted another round of racist comments about indians in general as an investor i think we should not politicize a company s business decisions if you believe that sia can turn around air india s fortunes then you should buy the stock if you are indifferent like me stay out of the sia share market if you are super confident that sia would lose money then muster the courage to short the counter instead of politicizing this issue india has a rising middle class and superb gd growth and this should get some investors excited today i want to ask a provocative question are local racists leaving too much money on the table in the markets and to illustrate this further i drew a scatterplot of all the stocks in my portfolio plotting return on equity roe against the price to book ratio pb using data from yahoo finance then i fit a least squares regression line through the data points points furthest above the line may indicate drastic undervaluation so the most undervalued stock is laopu gold which will be the subject of a future blog article an it s my latest acquisition but note that a close second is capitaland india trust which in my opinion has superb performance at a steep discount to its market price i did further research by invoking a quick stock research skill i built into my claude co work and this is what it had to say stock name capitaland india trust ticker cy6u si current price sgd 0 950 analyst target price sgd 1 33 fundamentals pe ratio 4 7 pb ratio 0 77 current yield 9 8 8 3 run rate a 1 44c advanced distribution put three payouts in the trailing window roe 15 3 rsi 180 days 46 8 business a singapore listed business trust owning indian real estate 22 0 million square feet of completed it business parks industrial and logistics facilities and data centers across bangalore chennai hyderabad pune and mumbai revenue source 1h 2026 total property income of s 137 6 million inr 9 923 million is almost entirely rent from it business park tenants with a growing data center and industrial slice supplemented by interest on s 417 9 million of receivables from six forward purchase development assets swot analysis strengths net property income margin widened to 78 1 from 76 1 driven by 24 positive rental reversions and 91 committed occupancy lifting distributable income by 8 to s 64 2 million while the navi mumbai data center tower 1 was fully leased and handed over to a hyperscaler in july with full income from august weaknesses the rupee fell 12 against the singapore dollar converting 13 dpu growth in inr into just 1 in the currency in which unit holders are actually paid and only 53 of borrowings are hedged back into inr opportunities there is 4 9 million square feet of development potential inside the existing it parks plus 6 4 million square feet across the forward purchase pipeline funded from s 1 1 billion of debt headroom with a july inr 5 5 billion drawdown alone expected to add 1 6 to dpu threats gearing of 38 0 is at the high end for an sgx listed trust and with 25 5 of borrowings floating indian rate moves hit distributions quickly the units already sit at their 52 week low of s 0 95 down from a s 1 28 high typical dividend months march and september from this quick examination i can conclude that everything under management s control has been decent with high rental reversions but the pe ratio is single digit and dividend yields are close to 10 but everything seems to be ruined by movements in the indian rupee but even though analysts have a high target price the reit s six month momentum is negative of course this doesn t mean there s actual racism behind such low valuations but i think the weakening rupee would still make this reit a tempting buy at this point i already own this reit it s generated some capital losses but after accounting for dividends received i m still up on my purchase price same rules apply if you think the rupee s weakness could push the reit lower then stay out of the markets but if you believe that there s somehow a thin veneer of racism that is similar to what you ve noticed in social media comments about sia and it s a reason for this discount then you may want to risk some capital to see if you are correct posted by christopher ng wai chung at 2 48 pm no comments older posts home subscribe to posts atom social media my youtube channel my linkedin buy me a coffee here are the links to my courses on dr wealth early retirement masterclass all weather portfolio masterclass search this blog popular posts cpf shielding lifehack is an abomination that must be ended by the cpf board so a few really smart cpf hackers discovered this cpf lifehack that you can read about here apparently authorities will populate your cp harsh truths about local degree programmes one of the really powerful ideas in quit like a millionaire by kristy shen is the idea that your first degree will be a major driver that d why singaporeans will not matter in the future i thought i d spend sunday writing about some of the key conclusions from the book homo deus by yuval harari within our local conte what i learned from observing financial advisors in every preview my colleagues are always able to spot who the financial advisor is in a room full of potential students for my course think twice before you marry the financially independent guy kyith ng of investment moats requested a fantasy themed picture to represent a financially independent person i think a d d troll buy my e book on amazon sowing the seeds of prosperity guide to financial intelligence buy my second e book harvesting the fruits of prosperity how to achieve financial independence buy my first e book growing your tree of prosperity how to make your first 100 000 about me i am currently an investment trainer who conducts the early retirement masterclass under dr wealth in my previous life i was an it manager and i have worked...