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he car a rental for a half day shoot will do the signal only has to get past the viewer s gut not his calculator why the car always comes with a high risk strategy this is what matters for anyone thinking of buying a course if your marketing rests on showing spectacular wealth you need a spectacular story to explain it i bought a basket of sgx reits and banks and compounded at 7 for 20 years does not explain a lamborghini at age 29 only a high return strategy does options leveraged forex crypto small cap momentum margin trading there is also a structural reason the guru market selects for high risk strategies and it has nothing to do with whether the guru is honest i ran a simple simulation to show it take 10 000 young men give each one a strategy with the same 8 average annual return half of them get a steady portfolio with 12 volatility the other half get a leveraged one with 50 volatility run it for five years after 5 years steady 12 vol leveraged 50 vol median outcome per 1 invested 1 43 0 85 tripled their money 0 1 14 1 made 5x or more 0 0 5 2 lost half or more 0 0 36 6 lost 90 or more 0 0 14 6 monte carlo simulation 10 000 paths per strategy normally distributed annual returns losses capped at 100 illustrative only not a forecast of any specific strategy look at the leveraged column the typical investor loses money more than a third lose half one in seven is wiped out and yet roughly one in twenty makes five times their capital now think about who makes content the 5 who turned 50 000 into 250 000 have a story a screenshot and maybe a down payment on a nice car the 15 who were wiped out stop posting the steady investors have nothing to show except 1 43 for every dollar a good result nobody wants to watch so even if every strategy has the same expected return the people who end up on your feed come almost entirely from the high risk tail you are not looking at a sample of investors you are looking at a sample of survivors the guru s incentives make this worse if his strategy works he sells courses if it fails he deletes his account and another winner from the same lottery takes his place his payoff looks like a call option so he should prefer high volatility your payoff looks like the whole distribution including the part where you are wiped out why young men specifically take the bait two things push young men towards this trade the arithmetic of a small portfolio a 25 year old with 20 000 earning 6 makes 1 200 a year that buys nothing he can show anyone the only way a small portfolio can change your life in two years is to take risks that are just as likely to destroy it high risk strategies are not irrational for this group they are a rational response to the wrong goal risk appetite peaks in young men this is well documented in behavioral research and needs no further explanation to anyone who has driven on the pie on a friday night in the erm readings i describe dopamine seeking as the first of three psychological roots of rookie portfolio design a variable reward strategy that pays off big once in a while feels very much like a slot machine the lamborghini tells you what the jackpot looks like put the two together a status hungry buyer and a marketer who has to signal high returns and you get a market that consistently matches the riskiest strategies with the people least able to survive their losses a detour through my second brain here is something i found while writing this earlier this year i moved 20 years of blog posts research reports and teaching notes into an obsidian vault and i ve indexed it in a qdrant vector database so i can search by meaning instead of keywords before writing this article i asked it about investment gurus showing off luxury cars to young men the top results were not about gurus they were sgx research reports on hong leong asia which makes truck powertrains and china sunsine which makes rubber chemicals for tires the embedding model saw cars and went straight to engines and tires when i searched for high risk high return strategy it returned the leverage section of my olam report and position sizing tables from my reit analysis that s a funny result but it also says something in my own notes risk shows up as a net debt to equity ratio a refinancing schedule or a trim level it s a spreadsheet in guru marketing risk shows up as an orange car same concept completely different representation and the second one sells far better when i adjusted the query the vault surfaced the posts i expected and i found i had been writing this article in pieces for almost a decade without connecting them 2017 inconspicuous consumption and the theory of platforms how educated people signal status without luxury goods written in the same post where i discussed the margin trading debate going around the blogs 2018 the things that you buy leave no trace research showing an expensive car really does make its owner happier than an average one which is exactly why the signal works 2019 do women prefer nice guys or rich guys the mating market premise behind the whole guru economy 2019 mba in a nutshell 17 sales aida attention interest desire action versus consultative selling the supercar is the cheapest attention trigger there is 2022 why we pursue status my notes on david marx s status and culture and how chasing status destroys wealth 2025 why guys without a passive income of 500 had better not start dating money and the dating market again status mating sales funnels and risk had sat in four separate clusters of my vault for years the guru s lamborghini is what links them that is the real argument for building a second brain you can t remember what you wrote eight years ago but a machine can show you that you already had the pieces what to do instead if you are a young man reading this i am not going to tell you to stop wanting status that is like telling you to stop being hungry here is what i would do instead ask for the drawdown not the return any guru selling a strategy should be able to tell you its worst peak to trough loss and how long recovery took if the answer is vague or the track record started after 2022 walk away ask how many students blew up a course that cannot tell you its failure rate is showing you the 5 column of my table and hiding the 15 column separate the signal from the source ask what share of the guru s income comes from trading and what share comes from selling courses in most cases students not markets paid for the car size your portfolio to survive before you can compound you have to avoid being wiped out a strategy that ends with a 15 chance of losing 90 is not an investment plan whatever the upside pick a better status game the status that actually holds up in singapore a paid off flat a dividend stream that covers your basic expenses a career with optionality doesn t photograph well it also doesn t get repossessed the guru needs the lamborghini because his business depends on you looking at the right tail of the distribution your job is to look at the whole thing posted by christopher ng wai chung at 9 50 pm 2 comments sunday september 27 2026 if you re middle income your best relationship manager is yourself three incidents over the past month pointed to the same conclusion for middle income singaporeans nobody in the financial industry is structurally set up to give you their best attention and you no longer need them to the tools to run your own money are cheaper and better than they were even two years ago what you have to supply is the discipline and the willingness to check numbers three incidents one an ex classmate of mine a successful businessman turned up at a networking event underdressed a relationship manager made a backhanded remark about it the comment was petty but it was also information a part of the industry sorts people by appearance which is a poor proxy for either wealth or judgment and an even poorer basis for allocating service two a financial advisor posted a story about a private banker who reluctantly accepted a client s s 3 million account then told the client to build it up to s 5 million to maintain the relationship treat it as marketing copy because that is what it is the reason it works as marketing copy is that it inverts the relationship in a way people recognize the client becomes responsible for growing his assets to keep his banker interested rather than the banker being responsible for growing the client s assets three a relative of mine an ex banker told me reits had been performing badly and that my approach was therefore wrong he then showed me his custodian account a diversified ucits global etf on the lse in a 60 40 portfolio presented as self evidently superior the third conversation is the one worth unpacking because he was half right and i was half right and neither of us could settle it by tone of voice what the numbers actually say i ran the comparison afterward all figures below are total returns in singapore dollars using a 2 5 risk free rate for the five and ten year periods to 26 september 2026 the proxies are the sti etf es3 for local blue chips the lion phillip s reit etf clr for s reits the msci world etf urth for global developed equities and a 60 40 mix of acwi and agg to shape his portfolio five years portfolio annualised return volatility sharpe ratio sti etf 16 1 11 2 1 22 s reit etf 1 1 12 7 0 28 msci world 10 4 16 8 0 47 60 40 global 5 6 11 5 0 27 ten years portfolio annualised return volatility sharpe ratio sti etf 10 3 13 0 0 60 s reit etf 2 6 14 7 0 01 msci world 12 3 18 3 0 54 60 40 global 7 4 12 0 0 41 three things fall out of this first my relative was right about reits and i was wrong to lump them in with the rest of the local market s reits have delivered roughly nothing for a decade and have lost money over five years with equity like volatility during that time rising rates did most of the damage and leverage did the rest if you hold s reits hold them for the income and the eventual rate cycle and be honest that the last five years were bad second the local market as a whole has been strong largely due to the banks on a risk adjusted basis an investor who simply held the sti etf for five years outperformed a global 60 40 portfolio by a wide margin that result is period dependent roll the window back ten years and the gap narrows sharply which is the point five year sharpe ratios are not a permanent ranking of strategies third the 60 40 portfolio my relative was proud of returned 5 6 a year over five years with a sharpe ratio of 0 27 it is a reasonable defensible portfolio it is not genius and nobody should present it as such the wider lesson is the one that matters for this article neither of us could have resolved that disagreement in conversation it took 10 minutes to process the price data anyone who tells you what your portfolio should look like and cannot show you the numbers behind the claim is giving you an opinion dressed as advice the middle income bind the middle is the worst place to sit in the current service model if you have modest savings the people willing to serve you are usually paid by commission on what they sell you the advice is not necessarily bad but the incentive is tied to the product not to your outcome if you have just enough to qualify for a relationship manager or the entry tier of private banking you are the smallest client in the book you are competing for attention with people who have ten times your assets and you will lose that competition on most days the cost is easy to quantify a 1 annual advisory or platform fee on a s 300 000 portfolio is s 3 000 a year the same money in an index etf charging 0 12 costs s 360 over twenty years that difference compounds into a meaningful part of a retirement why doing it yourself got easier from a tentative listing date of 13 october 2026 sgx will list four xtrackers ucits etfs traded in singapore dollars the one that matters most for a core holding is the msci world etf ticker xwr with a total expense ratio of 0 12 per year and the s p 500 etf xus at 0 03 why this is useful for a singapore investor you can buy it on sgx through cdp so the shares sit in your own name rather than with an overseas custodian it is expected to qualify for srs investment subject to eligibility and your platform supporting it confirm with your srs operator before you plan around it as irish domiciled ucits funds us dividends inside the fund are taxed at 15 rather than the 30 a singapore investor faces on us listed holdings and they sit outside us estate duty two caveats that the launch publicity will not emphasize trading in singapore dollars does not eliminate currency risk because the underlying assets are still foreign it only changes the currency in which you see the price and bid ask spreads on a newly listed sgx etf are unproven so compare the spread against the london or us listing before assuming the local one is cheaper overall dws delisted its singapore etfs in 2020 which is worth remembering when choosing a holding you intend to keep for 20 years for those who want to own individual stocks ai has genuinely lowered the cost of research extracting figures from an annual report building a first pass comparison of peers checking whether cash flow covers dividends it removes the clerical work it does not supply judgment and it will state a wrong number as confidently as a right one the workflow only improves if you verify the output against the filings what being your own relationship manager actually requires firing the middleman is not free you take on the work and the work is specific 1 write your policy down target allocation what you will buy and what would make you sell 2 know your costs expense ratios brokerage custody and spreads totaled once a year 3 measure against a benchmark return volatility and sharpe against an sti etf and a global index etf if you cannot beat both after costs hold them instead 4 review after results not after headlines once or twice a year is enough for a portfolio you own for income 5 keep a decision log write down why you bought it is the only way to tell skill from luck later that is a few hours a year it is less than most people spend choosing a phone plan and it is the difference between being sold a portfolio and owning one nobody at a bank is going to care about your money as much as you do the useful response is not resentment it is to make yourself competent enough that their attention stops being the thing you need this article is for education only and is not financial advice return figures are computed from adjusted daily price data to 26 september 2026 and will change with the measurement period posted by christopher ng wai chung at 2 15 pm no comments saturday september 19 2026 letter to batch 43 of the early retirement masterclass it has been an honor and a privilege to conduct a 5 day early retirement workshop for you three months ago i wrote to batch 42 that the straits times index at 5 ...