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description=2 posts published by troyca during March 2011;

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march 2011 troy s scratchpad troy s scratchpad march 22 2011 ensemble member early trends vs later trends filed under uncategorized troyca 6 21 pm there s been a lot of work done with respect to evaluating gcm projected temperature trends vs observed trends particularly in determining whether individual models or the ensemble mean can be rejected based on these trends what i ve been a bit curious about is whether the model runs with lower trends in this first decade of comparison 2001 2010 generally correspond to lower overall projected temperature increases for the remainder of the century 2011 2099 no it s not an incredibly deep question and has probably been answered elsewhere but this gives me an excuse to work with some time series stuff in r and dive into model data i got the 54 ensemble members for sres a1b from climate explorer i ve also included the data along with my r code in the link here anyhow here is a histogram of the global temperature trends for the ensemble members in the first 10 years starting in 2001 next here is what the model run trends look like for the remainder of the century as is clear the variability in the first 10 years in much greater than in the remaining 90 which would be consistent with the idea of weather noise dominating the short term trends while having the ghg forcings take over in the long haul 14 of the 54 runs seem to show less than an 0 1 c rise in the first decade whereas none showed a trend this low continuing over the the remainder of the century so back to the original question do early trends in these model runs give us an indicator of what the remainder of the century for that run is going to look like from this chart it would appear that no it does not of course it may be that it is better to look at individual models instead of the ensemble members since two runs from the same model may have different early trends but are likely to eventually converge and hence we would not gain anything by looking at the separate runs in the early stages whereas two different models are more likely to have different underlying processes whereby differing early trends may theoretically suggest a difference in climate sensitivity i m also curious about how well these individual runs compare to the 20th century observations vs the multi model mean comments 1 march 1 2011 population growth and uhi other 30 year periods filed under uncategorized troyca 7 04 pm after taking a close look at the 1970 2000 period i wanted to post some results from other 30 year periods first available noaa gridded pop data for the us is 1930 there is some overlap since we don t have 90 years of population data so i m choosing to use 1930 1960 and 1950 1980 in addition to the 1970 2000 tests already done one benefit is that since most of the crs to mmts transitions occurred after 1980 i did not need to control for these changes in my pairwise comparisons although there may be other inhomogeneities causing issues anyhow here are the results for using log popwithin10km 25 and log popwithin1km 25 for each of the two periods i suppose the interesting notes here are that there is a much clearer signal in the 1950 1980 period than in that 1930 1960 period and that neither of these show a uhi signal to the degree that s present in 1970 2000 furthermore in both of these scenarios the 1km radius for population density results in a slightly better correlation leave a comment pages about radiation budget and climate sensitivity recent comments briana on comment on the phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature christine barr on how well do the ipcc s statements about the 2 c target for rcp4 5 and rcp6 0 scenarios reflect the evidence alyce on comment on the phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature window on estimating sensitivity from 0 2000m ohc and surface temperatures the case against a u s carbon tax us china news on on forcing enhancement efficacy and kummer and dessler 2014 millionnaire on cmip3 multi model mean vs individual runs in 20th century hindcast no the greenhouse effect does not justify your pet idea on on forcing enhancement efficacy and kummer and dessler 2014 warming has not stopped surface temperatures reflect multiple forcing factors the environmental centurythe environmental century on could the multiple regression approach detect a recent pause in global warming blogroll air vent amac bart verheggen blackboard lucia chad herman climate audit climate charts graphs k o day hyp testing andrew ttca isaac held judith curry moyhu nick stokes open mind tamino realclimate science of doom steven mosher whiteboard ron broberg zeke hausfather recent posts combining recent instrumental sensitivity estimates with paleo sensitivity estimates cmip5 processing on github with another comparison of observed temperatures to cmip5 model runs estimating ecs bias from local feedbacks and observed warming patterns example with gfdl cm3 on forcing enhancement efficacy and kummer and dessler 2014 effective vs equilibrium sensitivity uncertainty in projections resulting from the cmip5 ohu efficacy range in a two layer model search search for archive october 2014 september 2014 june 2014 may 2014 march 2014 february 2014 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 may 2013 april 2013 february 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 october 2012 september 2012 august 2012 july 2012 may 2012 april 2012 march 2012 february 2012 january 2012 december 2011 november 2011 october 2011 september 2011 august 2011 july 2011 june 2011 may 2011 april 2011 march 2011 february 2011 january 2011 december 2010 november 2010 august 2010 create a free website or blog at wordpress com subscribe subscribed troy s scratchpad sign me up already have a wordpress com account log in now privacy troy s scratchpad subscribe subscribed sign up log in report this content view site in reader manage subscriptions collapse this bar loading 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