Meta tags:

Headings (most frequently used words):

2021, wednesday, series, 2022, rate, stat, pt, 15, january, december, november, me, links, end, the, team, walk, like, sabermetrician, tuesday, february, 26, 05, 08, 01, 17, 10, october, 20, elsewhere, analysis, reference, blog, archive, osu, baseball, of, season, statistics, win, shares, walkthrough, nl, 1876, 1881, labels, about, pythagenpat, using, run, rates, 16, summary, mixing, frameworks, hitting, by, position, crude, ratings, hypothetical, award, ballots, 14, relativity, for, theoretical, framework,

Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (620), and (194), that (157), for (147), team (138), this (101), runs (87), with (74), are (67), rate (63), but (62), which (56), run (54), not (53), was (53), win (47), would (44), approach (44), will (43), have (43), than (43), their (42), one (37), more (37), theoretical (36), average (36), #pythagenpat (36), games (35), using (35), can (34), raa (34), you (33), home (32), when (32), use (32), each (30), stat (30), should (27), just (27), teams (27), ratio (26), they (26), league (25), all (25), same (25), innings (25), may (24), could (24), season (23), individual (23), his (23), then (22), had (22), estimate (22), any (22), linear (22), batter (21), game (21), value (21), from (21), framework (21), only (21), equivalent (20), player (20), harper (20), make (20), other (19), october (19), december (19), january (19), relative (19), our (19), soto (19), series (18), two (18), november (18), february (18), reference (18), what (18), actual (18), based (18), baseball (17), because (17), out (17), pythagorean (17), outs (17), were (17), while (17), position (17), about (16), data (16), environment (16), exponent (16), tt_bsr (16), actually (16), wins (16), first (16), created (16), inning (16), april (15), march (15), july (15), september (15), there (15), players (15), most (15), rather (15), preview (14), june (14), august (14), here (14), think (14), also (14), allowed (14), performance (14), better (14), some (14), 2021 (13), between (13), through (13), very (13), rates (13), these (13), over (13), case (13), into (13), way (13), pitchers (13), plate (13), standard (13), like (13), how (13), weights (13), bottom (13), rmse (13), pitcher (12), seven (12), recap (12), stats (12), look (12), thomas (12), get (12), total (12), rar (12), second (12), even (12), impact (12), point (11), percentage (11), makes (11), calculate (11), waa (11), see (11), appearances (11), them (11), offensive (11), ctr (11), sense (11), expect (11), rpw (11), field (10), back (10), lower (10), adjusted (10), expected (10), winning (10), don (10), ohtani (10), metrics (10), best (10), number (10), ninths (10), hitters (9), 2019 (9), 2010 (9), end (9), posted (9), nine (9), given (9), convert (9), lgr (9), final (9), since (9), need (9), contribution (9), base (9), course (9), its (9), made (9), might (9), adjustment (9), totals (9), record (9), across (9), results (9), rpg (9), road (9), advantage (8), part (8), three (8), comments (8), above (8), used (8), higher (8), estimated (8), those (8), ballot (8), race (8), level (8), estimates (8), rank (8), full (8), records (8), mlb (8), opponents (8), positions (8), however (8), thus (8), denominator (8), positional (7), fielding (7), robinson (7), issues (7), time (7), frameworks (7), valuable (7), tt_x (7), per (7), does (7), additional (7), been (7), long (7), define (7), wednesday (7), much (7), right (7), difference (7), top (7), take (7), despite (7), ranking (7), both (7), him (7), whether (7), who (7), least (7), hybrid (7), dynamic (7), issue (7), doing (7), distortion (7), scored (7), opportunities (7), away (7), offense (6), math (6), slightly (6), due (6), dividing (6), equal (6), basis (6), now (6), pretty (6), calculation (6), before (6), didn (6), own (6), after (6), young (6), bad (6), interesting (6), different (6), essentially (6), choice (6), non (6), down (6), has (6), less (6), still (6), division (6), burnes (6), example (6), obvious (6), explanation (6), possible (6), good (6), although (6), against (6), strength (6), majors (6), new (6), overall (6), seasons (6), definition (6), problem (6), differences (6), estimator (6), allow (6), five (5), 2018 (5), 2009 (5), 2022 (5), blog (5), result (5), going (5), comparison (5), similar (5), tt_wr (5), having (5), instead (5), left (5), everything (5), franks (5), formulas (5), lgoba (5), figure (5), tt_af (5), skip (5), oba (5), process (5), brandon (5), enough (5), crude (5), fielders (5), recorded (5), potential (5), obviously (5), reason (5), taking (5), phi (5), secondary (5), among (5), significant (5), baseman (5), ray (5), tor (5), garcia (5), ratings (5), third (5), kind (5), formula (5), extreme (5), estimation (5), environments (5), conversion (5), contributions (5), fixed (5), small (5), many (5), terms (5), values (5), error (5), foregone (5), view (4), sabermetrics (4), 2020 (4), 2016 (4), 2015 (4), 2014 (4), 2013 (4), 2012 (4), 2011 (4), 2008 (4), 2007 (4), ten (4), tango (4), posts (4), relationship (4), original (4), create (4), adjtt_rr (4), calculating (4), expressed (4), set (4), simple (4), starting (4), score (4), needed (4), sample (4), frank (4), tt_oa (4), assume (4), bsr (4), true (4), sake (4), again (4), did (4), express (4), show (4), found (4), ranked (4), woodruff (4), sufficient (4), reasonable (4), close (4), putout (4), played (4), including (4), put (4), batters (4), easily (4), something (4), comes (4), uzr (4), batting (4), edge (4), lead (4), well (4), ever (4), behind (4), mil (4), wheeler (4), mvp (4), carlos (4), leading (4), award (4), great (4), order (4), let (4), arozarena (4), account (4), giants (4), sos (4), schedule (4), measure (4), assuming (4), without (4), described (4), year (4), table (4), either (4), consistently (4), really (4), consider (4), say (4), solve (4), making (4), proper (4), doesn (4), approaches (4), produces (4), real (4), want (4), apply (4), remains (4), appropriate (4), exercise (4), applied (4), considering (4), attempting (4), absolute (4), ninth (4), raw (4), larger (4), dataset (4), 264 (4), tress (4), playoffs (3), park (3), events (3), evaluation (3), six (3), four (3), 2017 (3), statistics (3), big (3), 2006 (3), sabermetric (3), thing (3), note (3), add (3), saw (3), next (3), mixing (3), high (3), scoring (3), calculated (3), equation (3), why (3), direct (3), divided (3), defined (3), easier (3), leave (3), another (3), option (3), already (3), 1994 (3), tt_roba (3), tt_hrpa (3), hrpa (3), roba (3), equations (3), gets (3), begin (3), trying (3), rest (3), scherzer (3), ahead (3), discussed (3), check (3), compare (3), inputs (3), phillies (3), putouts (3), plays (3), etc (3), multiplying (3), outfield (3), address (3), said (3), ops (3), consistent (3), giving (3), where (3), drs (3), typically (3), sum (3), surprised (3), quickly (3), apparent (3), come (3), whom (3), stl (3), buehler (3), yet (3), thought (3), under (3), hou (3), robbie (3), shohei (3), solid (3), normal (3), easiest (3), worst (3), term (3), little (3), impressive (3), included (3), fact (3), cin (3), likely (3), name (3), slight (3), below (3), represent (3), provide (3), regular (3), braves (3), dodgers (3), rating (3), context (3), such (3), converting (3), credit (3), being (3), lose (3), looking (3), composite (3), resulting (3), directly (3), 120 (3), infield (3), production (3), fifteen (3), years (3), correlation (3), lowest (3), figures (3), forward (3), post (3), major (3), hitting (3), padj (3), combined (3), allows (3), know (3), installment (3), points (3), produce (3), tertiary (3), methodological (3), adding (3), translate (3), reality (3), pure (3), step (3), tt_r (3), walk (3), mix (3), components (3), treat (3), extra (3), evaluating (3), lesser (3), range (3), people (3), extent (3), amount (3), capture (3), simply (3), scale (3), primary (3), inappropriate (3), arise (3), compared (3), differentially (3), comparable (3), question (3), 244 (3), accuracy (3), often (3), rpg9 (3), pitched (3), length (3), truncated (3), achieved (3), sabermetrician (3), scores (2), world (2), shares (2), estimators (2), statistical (2), distribution (2), adjustments (2), pitching (2), factors (2), osu (2), history (2), current (2), book (2), century (2), 1881 (2), 1876 (2), bill (2), retrosheet (2), links (2), research (2), numbers (2), analysis (2), subtract (2), surprising (2), conclusion (2), comparing (2), takes (2), fewer (2), marginal (2), increases (2), reladj (2), bother (2), tt_w (2), keeping (2), general (2), established (2), though (2), alone (2), defining (2), walking (2), tt_rpg (2), lgo (2), give (2), self (2), explanatory (2), runners (2), usage (2), divide (2), lot (2), place (2), working (2), alternative (2), discussing (2), thinking (2), jumping (2), helpful (2), started (2), chose (2), initial (2), remain (2), relativity (2), max (2), offensively (2), juan (2), bryce (2), seem (2), free (2), biases (2), distributed (2), nationals (2), teammates (2), defines (2), hits (2), play (2), serve (2), considered (2), manner (2), narrow (2), feel (2), contributed (2), accessible (2), fielder (2), fangraphs (2), baserunning (2), zero (2), leaves (2), ignoring (2), won (2), change (2), clear (2), pair (2), power (2), 305 (2), homers (2), doubles (2), walks (2), 514 (2), twelve (2), during (2), tyler (2), walker (2), corbin (2), zack (2), perez (2), certainly (2), voting (2), worse (2), defensive (2), listed (2), cedric (2), mullins (2), face (2), marcus (2), semien (2), blue (2), correa (2), judge (2), suspect (2), content (2), deal (2), quite (2), guerrero (2), categories (2), 589 (2), 256 (2), circumstances (2), rra (2), nya (2), jose (2), matt (2), laa (2), leader (2), 213 (2), side (2), almost (2), opposite (2), shortened (2), starter (2), rodon (2), lance (2), mccullers (2), addition (2), india (2), rogers (2), atl (2), roy (2), recognition (2), adolis (2), far (2), conventional (2), ballots (2), minus (2), hitter (2), hypothetical (2), ctrs (2), coming (2), metric (2), losses (2), opponent (2), luck (2), necessarily (2), efficiency (2), large (2), margin (2), playoff (2), atlanta (2), defense (2), pieces (2), strong (2), toronto (2), significantly (2), 500 (2), 100 (2), start (2), methodology (2), ratios (2), briefly (2), tied (2), texas (2), board (2), positive (2), few (2), following (2), tables (2), broken (2), display (2), negative (2), shows (2), excluding (2), pooled (2), wasn (2), fault (2), cabrera (2), dhs (2), find (2), responsible (2), usually (2), except (2), future (2), group (2), off (2), remember (2), single (2), developing (2), shortstops (2), pinch (2), function (2), allowing (2), vary (2), choices (2), wanted (2), main (2), limited (2), insert (2), palmer (2), 113 (2), applying (2), shouldn (2), wrong (2), weight (2), falls (2), maintain (2), advocate (2), sure (2), solution (2), basically (2), taken (2), abstract (2), intended (2), preserved (2), assumption (2), last (2), denominators (2), tt_bsrp (2), fundamental (2), accurate (2), ground (2), means (2), coupled (2), silly (2), work (2), avoid (2), every (2), argue (2), gives (2), productive (2), generally (2), tend (2), cases (2), wide (2), care (2), imagine (2), model (2), tremendous (2), others (2), keep (2), contributes (2), called (2), offers (2), teammate (2), actions (2), itself (2), correct (2), family (2), tom (2), units (2), neither (2), nor (2), developed (2), comparisons (2), numerator (2), assumptions (2), evaluate (2), avoiding (2), generating (2), ignore (2), moment (2), words (2), anyone (2), slog (2), concept (2), separately (2), extremely (2), surprise (2), assign (2), 535 (2), evidence (2), forego (2), improvement (2), ceiling (2), walkoff (2), whole (2), fit (2), calibrate (2), minimizes (2), logs (2), 300 (2), seeing (2), conditions (2), easy (2), pertains (2), expectancy (2), correction (2), related (2), upon (2), 162 (2), interested (2), develop (2), foolish (2), substack (2), complete, profile, yahoo, box, classic, whimsy, tripod, steroids, reports, scorekeeping, 261, rankings, predictions, pennant, races, 125, nfl, meanderings, managers, leadoff, indians, horse, racing, hall, fame, reviews, baselines, cards, awards, 19th, labels, 1880, 1879, 1878, 1877, intro, method, walkthrough, coach, beals, davis, stadium, champions, 2005, archive, gauge, projection, doug, wiki, barry, code, musings, analysts, triples, alley, chone, smith, tiger, tales, reds, dan, agonistes, sabr, hardball, times, clay, davenport, john, jarvis, sports, inside, tangotiger, scoresheets, weekly, scoresheet, elsewhere, subscribe, atom, older, multiply, regarding, exhausted, thoughts, ideas, concerning, designing, discuss, within, assert, ideally, brought, prior, gains, loses, nominal, rel, tt_rr, tying, noted, 881, solving, form, format, answer, worry, satisfying, interpret, meaning, 0609, 0546, validation, isolate, once, suggests, 2344, lghrpa, lgoa, lgaf, lgroba, notation, writing, rename, advancement, factor, abbreviation, came, mainstream, contexts, write, quicker, assumes, mathematically, eschew, originally, maybe, greatly, aided, calculations, purely, pts, james, grounded, follows, closely, mixed, list, flip, merely, reach, remotely, conclusive, convince, proposition, turn, whisker, truth, remarkable, unknown, introduces, problems, uniformly, looked, outfielder, balls, removing, infielders, assists, approximation, approximated, guide, handedness, opposing, viewed, barely, 1157, consideration, standings, sanity, closer, scientific, impression, steal, combination, regression, footing, favor, straightforward, helpfully, 101, 313, 309, sizeable, isolated, 221, cancel, 520, circuit, 116, fifty, carefully, examined, things, matched, burst, scene, inherited, job, toil, dazzling, smidge, elevated, neill, paul, goldschmidt, fernando, tatis, trea, turner, omission, salvardor, deviation, 315, prospectus, bichette, xander, bogaerts, yasmani, grandal, rafael, devers, slew, twenty, jay, serving, prime, bwar, slotting, seventh, fall, went, solely, fairly, handily, generate, controversial, indict, mental, faculties, talking, heads, spent, pretending, debate, fascinating, triple, crown, test, twice, decade, mystical, deference, traditional, deny, angel, transcendent, leaders, 394, 372, distant, pitches, 130, lowe, kyle, tucker, aaron, ramirez, cle, olson, oak, vladimir, elevate, worth, noting, led, nineteenth, 167, vote, tempting, guy, spectacular, gap, enormous, nods, spots, equally, peripheral, candidates, explain, reasoning, trends, driving, workloads, hope, previous, depressing, peripherals, lynn, chris, bassitt, reasonably, placed, nathan, eovaldi, bos, berrios, min, cha, gerrit, cole, ordering, stephenson, ian, anderson, dylan, carlson, trevor, mia, jonathan, nothing, else, largely, wash, era, dra, slide, probably, land, 289, fifth, excellent, honorable, mentions, wander, franco, seventy, ryan, mountcastle, homer, appears, tex, shane, mcclanahan, casey, mize, det, luis, randy, finally, reverting, fan, information, quality, particular, respect, terminated, clinches, emerge, nonetheless, along, column, showing, version, unsurprisingly, winner, twelfth, biggest, loser, rays, declined, weighing, uptick, offset, predicted, weakness, iterative, determine, simultaneously, recognize, evaluated, objective, championship, worthiness, hard, intuitively, comprehensible, efficient, stronger, foe, letting, accrue, overtake, lines, participants, highly, mariners, drop, east, toughest, weakest, turning, lackluster, injury, multi, track, feckless, prognosticator, representing, strongest, seattle, oakland, louis, champs, becomes, aggregate, multiple, latter, 025, percentages, implied, columns, loss, rescaled, arithmetic, repeat, until, stabilize, adjust, spreadsheet, available, san, francisco, los, angles, nearly, mirror, images, narrowly, edged, outfielders, catchers, outstanding, jays, chisox, neighbors, displaying, houston, baltimore, center, prevented, saved, fate, rangers, poor, notes, sorted, red, bolded, dig, kansas, city, seen, royals, catcher, shortstop, indicates, tended, hunter, dozier, pulled, reverse, hit, 286, 390, sad, miguel, tigers, oblivion, line, 321, 386, 180, 844, unadjusted, 335, 617, entertaining, gawk, always, mean, dreadful, fun, boster, posey, belt, bal, highest, incomplete, angels, baselined, accounted, rbi, paled, low, universal, cba, combine, competent, performances, rebounded, fell, buoyed, sans, reviewed, annually, strongly, caution, drawing, conclusions, shifting, norms, treated, curiosities, warnings, short, period, averages, system, curiosity, outhitting, basemen, bumper, crop, agent, accentuated, collective, lives, hype, pos, yielding, lpadj, rows, corner, respectively, adjwaa, refrpg, goal, seek, excel, correctly, algebraically, pre, existing, philosophical, attempts, summarize, fray, extremes, yankees, 5623, 5620, diverge, too, derive, important, lined, build, overstating, prove, offer, rejoinders, picture, relation, recognizes, inflate, revised, somewhere, embraces, purity, stick, 217, 176, 552, 155, 555, mess, algebraic, interest, preserve, application, ref, palmerian, difficulties, contribute, modified, concert, fixing, walbeck, reporting, reflects, common, frame, quantity, tie, capturing, disparate, restating, stable, abstraction, row, exceeded, maximizes, fully, varies, added, outlier, bunch, adjusting, options, steps, covered, numerators, expressing, convinced, wrc, former, attractive, mixture, logical, path, defend, questionable, valuation, claimed, material, firmer, understanding, measuring, refuse, knowledge, consistency, component, effort, analogues, unlike, argument, conversions, compounding, inferior, ease, commitment, ceases, opportune, juncture, earlier, various, methodologies, focused, impacted, decisions, lw_rc, linked, regardless, interests, focus, methods, eye, applicability, levels, additionally, ones, debating, 1966, cannot, earl, battey, gary, gaetti, places, member, distorted, beginning, creates, defensible, perfect, mis, estimating, compound, entire, shape, radically, employed, puritanical, matching, logic, sound, brief, discussion, hybrids, mind, choose, wish, differentials, aren, your, soon, introduce, dependent, models, fails, necessary, properly, complication, denominated, equivalents, especially, relatively, rise, david, smyth, prefers, dwarfed, quantify, must, careful, ensure, measurement, impacts, lends, uses, causes, minor, cause, useful, shortcut, devising, generated, woba, thanks, popularization, variant, differential, comparability, maintaining, meaningful, subtracting, prefer, fanhome, poster, sibelius, depending, adds, enable, incorporates, everyone, ideal, selection, divorced, inherent, suggest, reasoned, justifiable, certain, elements, utilize, chosen, plugging, produced, extrapolated, ala, pete, construct, consists, plus, eight, satisfactory, beyond, bases, operate, vacuum, appearance, individually, lineup, treats, hand, absent, boils, illogical, penalize, effectively, productivity, event, subset, examine, core, insights, functions, spans, thirty, 000, key, succinctly, become, haven, summary, demonstration, suggestion, implemented, hunch, broad, situation, discrepancies, definitely, further, weighted, pythagenpats, 754, sneaked, slicing, aggregated, maximize, losing, replace, rule, reductions, 779, 215, smooth, 536, wiped, contrary, conclude, naïve, perfectly, randomly, corrections, practice, frequently, minimized, 771, optimized, encouraging, waste, intuitive, improve, performs, basic, earth, shattering, 923, 015, 543, rmses, happens, purpose, proof, broadly, ultimately, decides, implement, concepts, decide, required, exponents, compiling, checked, lahman, database, happen, conditioned, optimize, building, playing, changed, influence, mundane, absolutely, fantastic, resource, spend, parsing, regulation, corresponds, longer, offenses, manfred, implications, help, considers, commonly, built, around, determining, distorts, tenths, elevenths, troublesome, victory, otherwise, ends, correcting, fix, existed, reflected, changes, nature, opening, dimension, sequencing, timing, addresses, conundrum, entered, detour, concern, criticism, lengths, inherently, assumed, precisely, encountered, phenomenon, indeed, reflection, article, bias, theorem, published, 2004, provided, bat, scalar, multiplier, corrector, halved, observation, deviations, expectation, samples, magnitude, matters, span, averaged, complement, 465, 486, inclination, aha, manifesting, exceed, 021, strategic, crowd, support, reminded, aware, reduced, multiplied, 977, convenience, call, 537, 992, decided, default, normally, dealing, expediency, hopes, temporary, plug, studied, entering, simulate, select, depends, desired, weighting, scheduled, widespread, implementation, forced, examination, tools, consisted, unique, expecting, currently, share, https, walksaber, com, 19pmi9, archives, google, tuesday, occasional, commentary, sidebar,

Text of the page (random words):
he hit 213 286 390 with 3 7 rg so it wasn t really his fault it s kind of sad to see miguel cabrera leading the tigers dhs to oblivion and it kind of was his fault cabrera s overall line 256 321 386 for 4 2 rg wasn t that bad but in 180 pa as a first baseman he posted a 844 unadjusted ops while in 335 pa his ops was just 617 the next table shows the correlation r between each team s rg for each position excluding pitchers and the long term position adjustment using pooled 1b dh and lf rf a high correlation indicates that a team s offense tended to come from positions that you would expect it to i didn t dig through years of these posts to check but kansas city s negative correlation may be the lowest i ve ever seen the royals only above average positions were catcher second base and shortstop the following tables broken out by division display raa for each position with teams sorted by the sum of positional raa positions with negative raa are in red and positions that are 20 raa are bolded a few notes only five of the fifteen al teams had positive raa from their position players while each nl division had three teams with positive raa baltimore s infield production was the worst in the majors at 91 runs and only cedric mullins center field prevented them from having below average performance at all positions texas was saved from the same fate only by their right fielders who were just 1 run the rangers poor production is impressive for how consistently bad it was across the board their texas neighbors were the opposite in displaying consistently good production across the board houston s outfield was the best in the majors at 63 runs while their infield was second in the al to toronto san francisco and los angles were nearly mirror images of each other the dodgers narrowly edged the giants for the top infield in mlb 89 to 87 while their outfielders were both slightly above average 5 to 4 la catchers were outstanding their 25 raa tied for second in the majors with the blue jays and chisox but the giants were better at 32 raa giving them a three run edge for the majors top total positional raa a spreadsheet with full data is available here posted by p at 10 44 am 0 comments wednesday november 17 2021 crude team ratings 2021 crude team rating ctr is my name for a simple methodology of ranking teams based on their win ratio or estimated win ratio and their opponents win ratios a full explanation of the methodology is here but briefly 1 start with a win ratio figure for each team it could be actual win ratio or an estimated win ratio 2 figure the average win ratio of the team s opponents 3 adjust for strength of schedule resulting in a new set of ratings 4 begin the process again repeat until the ratings stabilize the resulting rating ctr is an adjusted win loss ratio rescaled so that the majors arithmetic average is 100 the ratings can be used to directly estimate w against a given opponent without home field advantage for either side a team with a ctr of 120 should win 60 of games against a team with a ctr of 80 120 120 80 first ctr based on actual wins and losses in the table aw is the winning percentage equivalent implied by the ctr and sos is the measure of strength of schedule the average ctr of a team s opponents the rank columns provide each team s rank in ctr and sos this was not a great year for the playoff teams representing those that had the strongest w l records in context as toronto seattle and oakland all were significantly better than st louis and the world champs from atlanta the reason for this quickly becomes apparent when you look at the average aw s by division i use aw to aggregate the performance of multiple teams rather than ctr because the latter is expressed as a win ratio for a simple example a 90 72 team and a 72 90 team will end up with an average win ratio of 1 025 but their composite and average winning percentages will both be 500 the nl east despite being described by at least one feckless prognosticator as the toughest division in baseball was in fact the worst division in baseball by a large margin atlanta had the second weakest sos in mlb turning their lackluster 88 73 record into something even less impressive in context in defense of the braves they did lose some significant pieces to injury and have a multi year track record of being a strong team as well as looking better when the ctrs are based on expected record i e pythagenpat using actual runs runs allowed here we see the dodgers overtake the giants by a large margin as mlb s top team and it actually lines up better with the playoff participants as the braves rank highly and the mariners drop one weakness of ctr is that i use the same starting win metric to calculate both team strength and strength of schedule in one iterative process but one could make the case that in order to best put w l records in context it would make more sense to use each team s actual w l record to determine their ranking but use expected w or some other measure to estimate strength of schedule such an approach would simultaneously recognize that a team should be evaluated on the basis of their actual wins and losses assuming the objective is to measure championship worthiness or some similar hard to define but intuitively comprehensible standard but that just because an opponent had good luck or were efficient in converting runs to wins they didn t necessarily represent a stronger foe this would give a team credit for its own efficiency without letting it accrue credit for its opponents efficiency this is what the ratings look like using predicted w using runs created runs created allowed as the starting point finally i will close by reverting to ctrs based on actual w l but this time taking the playoffs into account i am not a big fan of including the playoffs obviously they represent additional games which provide additional information about team quality but they are played under very different circumstances than regular season games particular with respect to pitcher usage and the fact that series are terminated when a team clinches biases the w l records that emerge from series nonetheless here they are along with a column showing each team s percentage change in ctr relative to the regular season w l only version unsurprisingly the braves are the big winner although they still only rank twelfth in mlb the biggest loser are the rays although they still rank 3 and lead the al the dodgers rating actually declined slightly more than the giants despite winning their series they end up with a 6 5 record weighing down their regular season and with seven of those games coming against teams that are ranked just 12 and 13 the uptick in sos was not enough to offset it posted by p at 8 31 am 0 comments wednesday november 10 2021 hypothetical award ballots 2021 al roy 1 lf randy arozarena tb 2 sp luis garcia hou 3 sp casey mize det 4 sp shane mcclanahan tb 5 cf adolis garcia tex arozarena will likely win the award on name recognition if nothing else but one could very easily make a case for garcia who i actually have slightly ahead in rar 37 to 35 arozarena s baserunning and fielding are largely a wash but garcia s rar using era and dra are slightly lower 32 and 31 that s enough for me to slide arozarena ahead adolis garcia is an interesting case as his standard offensive stats will probably land him high in the voting but his oba was only 289 which contributed to him ranking fifth among position players in rar but he has excellent fielding metrics 16 drs and 12 uzr which gets him back on my ballot among honorable mentions wander franco had 21 rar in just seventy games which is by far the best rate of performance ryan mountcastle s homer totals will get him on conventional ballots but he appears to be slight minus as a fielder and was a below average hitter for a first baseman nl roy 1 2b jonathan india cin 2 sp trevor rogers mia 3 rf dylan carlson stl 4 sp ian anderson atl 5 c tyler stephenson cin india is the clear choice among position players and rogers among pitchers and i see no reason to make any adjustment to their rar ordering in fact it s pretty much rar order all the way down al cy young 1 robbie ray tor 2 gerrit cole nya 3 carlos rodon cha 4 jose berrios min tor 5 nathan eovaldi bos the 2021 al cy young race has to be the worst for a non shortened season in history while long term trends are driving down starter workloads let s hope that a full previous season will make the 2022 cy young race at least a little less depressing robbie ray is the obvious choice leading the league in innings and ranking second to carlos rodon in rra for a twelve run rar lead over lance mccullers ray s peripherals are less impressive but are still solid in addition to the pitchers on my ballot mccullers lance lynn and chris bassitt could all easily be included as the seven pitchers behind ray could be reasonably placed in just about any order nl cy young 1 zack wheeler phi 2 corbin burnes mil 3 walker buehler la 4 max scherzer was la 5 brandon woodruff mil the nl race is almost the opposite of the al with five solid candidates who could be ranked in almost any order even for a normal season the easiest way to explain my reasoning is to show each pitcher s rar by each of the three metrics wheeler and burnes get the nods for my top two spots as they were equally good in the peripheral based metrics which i feel is sufficient to elevate them above rar leader buehler it s worth noting that burnes was the leader in all three of the ra metrics but wheeler led the league with 213 innings while burnes was nineteenth with 167 i suspect burnes will win the actual vote and while it s tempting to side with the guy with spectacular rate stats a 46 inning gap is enormous al mvp 1 dh sp shohei ohtani laa 2 1b vladimir guerrero tor 3 1b matt olson oak 4 2b marcus semien tor 5 3b jose ramirez cle 6 ss carlos correa hou 7 rf aaron judge nya 8 sp robbie ray tor 9 rf kyle tucker hou 10 2b brandon lowe tb a first baseman and a dh are the two al offensive rar leaders in a season in which no pitcher comes close to a top of the mvp ballot performance the first baseman hits 305 394 589 to the dh s 256 372 589 over 59 additional plate appearances under these circumstances how can the first baseman possible rank second on the ballot and a distant second at that when the dh also pitches 130 innings with a rra 31 lower than league average this should seem like a fairly obvious conclusion and i suspect that ohtani will handily win the award but whether out of the need to generate controversial content or some other explanation that would indict their mental faculties talking heads have spent a great deal of time pretending that this was a reasonable debate i thought it would have been quite fascinating to see guerrero win the triple crown as a test case of whether twice in a decade the mystical deference to the traditional categories could deny an angel having a transcendent season of a mvp award for the rest of the ballot if you take the fielding metrics at face value you can make the case that marcus semien was actually the most valuable blue jay i do not with carlos correa serving as a prime example he was 21 in drs but only 3 in uzr which is the difference between leading the league in position player bwar and slotting seventh on my ballot as he would fall behind judge if i went solely on uzr the omission of salvardor perez will certainly be a deviation from the actual voting perez oba was just 315 and despite 48 homers he created just 99 runs worse yet his defensive value was 13 runs per baseball prospectus i would rank him not just behind the ten players listed but cedric mullins bo bichette xander bogaerts yasmani grandal rafael devers and a slew of starting pitchers i don t think he was one of the twenty most valuable players in the al nl mvp 1 rf juan soto was 2 rf bryce harper phi 3 ss trea turner was la 4 sp zack wheeler phi 5 ss fernando tatis sd 6 sp corbin burnes mil 7 sp walker buehler la 8 1b paul goldschmidt stl 9 rf tyler o neill stl 10 sp brandon woodruff mil having not carefully examined the statistics during the season two things surprised me about this race which it was quickly apparent would come down to the well matched right fielders each of whom were among the best young players ever when they burst on the scene one of whom inherited the other s job more or less and both of whom still toil in the same division the first was that soto despite his dazzling oba actually ranked a smidge behind harper offensively the second was that soto had a significant advantage in the fielding metrics that elevated him to the top taking the more straightforward comparison first soto and harper had essentially the same batting average i m ignoring park factors as was and phi helpfully had a 101 pf so it won t change the comparison between the two 313 to 309 soto had the clear edge in w hb rate despite the pair ranking one two in the nl 22 7 of pa to harper s 17 8 while harper had a sizeable edge in isolated power 305 to 221 harper had only six more homers than soto but 22 more doubles the walks and power essentially cancel out harper had a 520 secondary average to soto s 514 again ranking one two in the circuit each created 116 runs but despite his oba edge soto made twelve more outs as he had fifty six more plate appearances that leaves harper with a narrow two rar lead fangraphs estimates that soto s non steal baserunning was one run better than average harper s zero so it comes down to fielding where soto has 3 drs and 2 uzr to harper s 6 2 as a crude combination with regression to put the result on an equal footing with offensive value i typically sum the two and divide by four which leaves soto 1 and harper 1 to create a total value difference of two runs in favor of soto obviously this difference is so narrow that one should barely even feel the need to address a choice to put harper on top of their ballot one could easily reason that the phillies were in the race and harper contributed to keeping them in said race with his september october performance 1157 september ops but i have been pretty consistent in not giving any consideration to a team s position in the standings so my only sanity check was to take a closer look at fielding using very crude but accessible metrics my non scientific impression would be that harper might be something like a b fielder and soto a c i looked at the putout rate for each dividing putouts by team ab hr k a sf this essentially defines the outfielder s potential plays as any balls including hits put in play removing plays actually made by infielders of which assists serve as an approximation obviously there is much that is not considered even that might be approximated from the standard baseball guide data like actual gb fb ratio handedness of pitchers and opposing batters etc and multiplying by each player s innings in the outfield divided by t...