Meta tags:
Headings (most frequently used words):
august, 2013, the, of, to, and, saturday, friday, thursday, wednesday, tuesday, monday, sunday, is, like, new, arthurian, economics, debt, openness, economic, data, code, 10, one, fixed, private, investment, components, base, money, don, what, have, look, at, spreadsheet, different, accumulation, google, translate, blog, archive, links, labels, 31, 30, 29, 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 23, 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, fpi, christensen, fitted, which, not, others, log, real, trends, just, by, eye, barometer, growth, looks, measure, economy, performance, neil, irwin, can, be, right, nobel, prize, for, ego, rush, me, disastrous, cumulative, far, reaching, repercussions, saving, else, could, we, reasonably, do, when, hope, interferes, science, turns, alchemy, key, discovery, success, outperforming, our, potential, going, thru, motions, crisis, results, 181, world, bank, series, added, fred, know, say, suddenly, everything, corporate, extinctions, fwiw, labor, nonlabor, unit, costs, also, see, more, work, done, on, transfer, incomes, fractions, capital,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (700), and (258), that (150), for (88), debt (79), graph (74), but (64), #investment (56), this (50), you (45), not (45), #private (43), growth (42), from (40), fixed (40), what (39), are (39), august (37), line (37), have (37), money (36), 2013 (36), christensen (36), was (34), arthurian (32), one (32), red (32), comments (30), data (29), with (29), posted (28), inflation (28), can (26), like (26), total (26), about (26), recession (26), when (25), blue (25), gdp (25), they (25), look (24), economy (24), expectations (24), fred (23), see (23), there (23), all (21), friedman (21), before (21), more (20), would (20), same (20), cost (20), down (20), numbers (20), standard (20), which (20), index (20), then (20), relative (20), series (19), than (19), economic (19), years (19), deviation (19), graphs (18), unit (18), two (18), value (18), between (18), crisis (18), high (18), labor (17), know (17), don (17), part (17), spreadsheet (17), change (17), post (16), problem (16), first (16), each (16), labels (16), thing (16), ngdp (16), just (16), fpi (16), shows (15), out (15), may (15), lars (15), pfi (15), get (14), real (14), them (14), his (14), excel (14), values (14), think (14), after (14), stable (14), work (13), were (13), average (13), didn (13), say (13), because (13), way (13), right (13), had (13), curve (13), also (12), nonlabor (12), low (12), level (12), new (12), other (12), great (12), some (12), most (12), people (12), 2009 (12), savings (12), circulating (12), def (12), business (11), policy (11), different (11), costs (11), higher (11), little (11), early (11), their (11), rate (11), time (11), calculation (11), 1990 (11), now (11), question (11), economics (11), 1980 (11), make (10), lines (10), june (10), used (10), september (10), only (10), might (10), dataset (10), why (10), significant (10), window (10), base (10), says (10), march (10), january (10), maybe (9), something (9), corporate (9), seems (9), could (9), centered (9), open (9), even (9), rates (9), february (9), april (9), july (9), october (9), november (9), december (9), posts (8), its (8), toward (8), good (8), output (8), income (8), here (8), together (8), looking (8), again (8), dollar (8), has (8), writes (8), market (8), increase (8), very (8), much (8), looks (8), how (8), reason (8), back (8), phillips (8), unemployment (8), bank (7), your (7), interest (7), any (7), related (7), okay (7), pdf (7), page (7), these (7), both (7), difference (7), per (7), percent (7), revision (7), changes (7), world (7), too (7), clear (7), increasing (7), always (7), into (7), will (7), end (7), off (7), want (7), file (7), better (7), less (7), use (7), been (7), since (7), far (7), our (7), others (7), non (7), keynes (7), assets (7), answer (7), relatively (7), spending (7), credit (7), fed (6), old (6), financial (6), does (6), capital (6), nonfinancial (6), next (6), run (6), thought (6), components (6), over (6), well (6), paul (6), relationship (6), things (6), bea (6), must (6), monetary (6), quantity (6), reserves (6), else (6), where (6), yesterday (6), future (6), makes (6), those (6), zero (6), pretty (6), read (6), take (6), computer (6), calc (6), scale (6), did (6), important (6), potential (6), push (6), sumner (6), key (6), technical (6), robert (6), point (6), long (6), existing (6), code (6), upward (6), 2007 (6), federal (5), him (5), stay (5), sure (5), story (5), greater (5), finance (5), above (5), until (5), year (5), pattern (5), wrong (5), case (5), yeah (5), available (5), relevant (5), mine (5), normal (5), results (5), times (5), central (5), stagflation (5), start (5), using (5), subtract (5), almost (5), wanted (5), calculations (5), google (5), tell (5), word (5), axis (5), duplicate (5), vertical (5), comparison (5), prices (5), nick (5), discovery (5), let (5), being (5), john (5), showed (5), never (5), 1970 (5), such (5), term (5), spend (5), consumption (5), production (5), slow (5), ratio (5), decline (5), really (5), finesse (5), log (5), trends (5), eye (5), 2001 (5), tcmdo (5), fitted (5), louis (4), lead (4), employment (4), done (4), tuesday (4), chapter (4), specific (4), three (4), plot (4), according (4), around (4), ulc (4), productivity (4), wednesday (4), many (4), power (4), failure (4), past (4), thursday (4), interesting (4), friday (4), saturday (4), links (4), article (4), milton (4), simply (4), stock (4), evidence (4), argue (4), therefore (4), 1970s (4), words (4), left (4), simple (4), understand (4), download (4), containing (4), 500 (4), shouldn (4), columns (4), sense (4), based (4), doing (4), standardized (4), sometimes (4), show (4), become (4), later (4), remember (4), green (4), actually (4), blogger (4), choice (4), office (4), size (4), tried (4), step (4), got (4), calls (4), version (4), needed (4), datasets (4), lower (4), result (4), saw (4), arthur (4), rowe (4), prediction (4), put (4), success (4), krugman (4), shift (4), said (4), state (4), though (4), depression (4), disastrous (4), reaching (4), accumulation (4), banks (4), talking (4), find (4), skeptical (4), blog (4), neil (4), irwin (4), 2010 (4), nipaguid (4), barometer (4), sees (3), return (3), best (3), stand (3), found (3), looked (3), bls (3), date (3), below (3), today (3), nonfarm (3), previous (3), 1990s (3), units (3), sector (3), measures (3), sum (3), compensation (3), include (3), taxes (3), extinctions (3), once (3), economist (3), law (3), second (3), came (3), everything (3), horizontal (3), added (3), behind (3), quite (3), objection (3), lucas (3), connection (3), turning (3), created (3), sunday (3), going (3), ago (3), gnp (3), gross (3), instead (3), four (3), lot (3), except (3), making (3), obvious (3), sheet (3), doesn (3), divide (3), number (3), orange (3), 1974 (3), chance (3), likely (3), behavior (3), source (3), national (3), monday (3), zoho (3), won (3), drive (3), means (3), live (3), prefer (3), nice (3), visual (3), working (3), should (3), gets (3), trying (3), brings (3), indicator (3), life (3), variation (3), reduced (3), view (3), scott (3), williamson (3), science (3), religious (3), keynesian (3), samuelson (3), solow (3), doubts (3), theory (3), trend (3), demand (3), matter (3), during (3), big (3), reagan (3), last (3), wasn (3), reasonably (3), reflection (3), actual (3), reasons (3), practice (3), facts (3), issue (3), knowledge (3), general (3), rapidly (3), fell (3), path (3), excessive (3), certain (3), keep (3), example (3), yet (3), probably (3), character (3), free (3), declining (3), saying (3), civilization (3), cumulative (3), rush (3), skepticism (3), another (3), questioning (3), fun (3), made (3), ego (3), through (3), openness (3), overhang (3), fit (3), humps (3), 1986 (3), peaks (3), lag (3), runs (3), levels (3), measure (3), performance (3), search (3), turned (3), talk (3), inventories (3), appears (3), slower (3), slowed (3), 1973 (3), household (3), 25th (3), arbitrary (3), adjustment (3), timeline (3), reserve (2), 2016 (2), appear (2), http (2), org (2), horse (2), water (2), newer (2), complex (2), certainly (2), investments (2), productive (2), move (2), fallacy (2), composition (2), solution (2), hard (2), factor (2), factors (2), untold (2), transfer (2), incomes (2), fractions (2), belief (2), financialization (2), title (2), area (2), quarter (2), pages (2), table (2), footnote (2), share (2), seem (2), 2000 (2), days (2), multiplier (2), period (2), excess (2), current (2), corresponding (2), fwiw (2), companies (2), attrition (2), billion (2), reviews (2), rather (2), comprehensive (2), suddenly (2), third (2), white (2), space (2), bottom (2), 181 (2), name (2), ngdpt (2), critique (2), everywhere (2), phenomenon (2), argument (2), everybody (2), brought (2), everyone (2), activity (2), criticism (2), attempt (2), exploit (2), rgdp (2), brief (2), picking (2), try (2), track (2), price (2), trade (2), funny (2), product (2), nominal (2), worth (2), anyway (2), least (2), familiar (2), format (2), stdevpa (2), function (2), calculates (2), help (2), range (2), errors (2), calcs (2), effect (2), original (2), smaller (2), quarterly (2), anything (2), changed (2), ought (2), able (2), perhaps (2), similarity (2), twice (2), spread (2), dividing (2), downs (2), tomorrow (2), click (2), comes (2), action (2), yourself (2), blogging (2), routines (2), standardize (2), gridlines (2), near (2), multiplying (2), upon (2), versus (2), takes (2), adds (2), centering (2), away (2), adjustments (2), plus (2), scaling (2), applied (2), few (2), amplitude (2), impresses (2), ever (2), anyhow (2), longer (2), thru (2), motions (2), andrew (2), bartels (2), converted (2), 2005 (2), dollars (2), outperforming (2), caused (2), burns (2), chairman (2), who (2), history (2), macroeconomic (2), nothing (2), bit (2), lays (2), embrace (2), mind (2), marcus (2), wrote (2), subsequent (2), validate (2), 2012 (2), asked (2), nunes (2), alternative (2), predicted (2), true (2), claim (2), structural (2), tradeoff (2), appeared (2), estimates (2), policymakers (2), give (2), model (2), mark (2), review (2), volcker (2), changing (2), within (2), side (2), discovered (2), either (2), easier (2), conditions (2), mean (2), capacity (2), hope (2), interferes (2), turns (2), alchemy (2), depend (2), improve (2), disappointed (2), maynard (2), affairs (2), continue (2), indefinitely (2), expect (2), rule (2), truth (2), convention (2), course (2), feel (2), situation (2), expectation (2), spike (2), archive (2), saving (2), holder (2), allow (2), continues (2), under (2), ask (2), points (2), remain (2), call (2), relation (2), need (2), falling (2), transactions (2), civilizations (2), die (2), suicide (2), refuse (2), dpd (2), operations (2), assailed (2), repercussions (2), thus (2), neither (2), crises (2), confidence (2), skeptics (2), position (2), ways (2), puts (2), challenging (2), reverse (2), mistake (2), interviewed (2), asking (2), opportunity (2), questions (2), nobel (2), prize (2), publication (2), scientific (2), process (2), happening (2), analysis (2), while (2), culture (2), set (2), repec (2), contact (2), tellings (2), glacially (2), forgotten (2), growing (2), problems (2), component (2), earlier (2), eyes (2), couple (2), hump (2), neck (2), 1980s (2), meet (2), creating (2), expand (2), necessary (2), efficiency (2), slack (2), scaled (2), notes (2), limit (2), names (2), phrase (2), ctrl (2), businesses (2), nonprofit (2), institutions (2), structures (2), equipment (2), software (2), serve (2), movements (2), united (2), states (2), government (2), domestic (2), account (2), accounts (2), www (2), gradually (2), pace (2), 1960 (2), imagine (2), hover (2), vigor (2), stuff (2), sat (2), writing (2), still (2), 2018 (2), loops (2), laffer (2), jerry (2), historical (2), banking (2), five (2), dave (2), ross (2), image (2), translate (2), html (2), spoiler (2), charts (2), tax (2), venn (2), rights, reserved, courtesy, research, stlouisfed, fred2, drink, thirsty, friends, subscribe, atom, home, older, mike, quotes, arjun, jayadev, wants, telling, outperform, smart, decisions, survive, stands, firm, requires, facilitation, land, transfers, industrial, rortybomb, matching, squished, extra, revised, embargoed, add, flat, odd, limited, several, running, closer, till, binary, guessed, maximum, largely, suspect, portions, bureau, prepares, major, relate, hourly, persons, hour, defined, profits, profit, type, proprietors, depreciation, rent, indirect, payments, handbook, methods, discover, magazine, jonathon, keats, annually, follow, occasionally, punctuated, failing, ormerod, severity, frequency, follows, mass, exponentially, rarer, everyday, natural, half, extinction, species, followed, bill, revisions, release, every, incorporate, definitions, methodology, reckoning, 550, larger, twenty, cent, paradigms, halfway, 120, draw, targeting, vowels, somehow, peoria, theoretical, weak, agree, screw, monetarists, grave, sumnerian, thinks, translates, ttempts, circulation, supported, recognizes, argues, attention, solve, existed, influence, indirectly, affect, affecting, profitable, feasible, cannot, flog, dead, resurrect, stagnant, vulnerable, style, observed, breakdown, happened, create, pieria, illustrate, markets, constructed, describes, weighted, wonder, affects, direct, relabeled, usd, sound, twexmpa_pc1, relabeling, thanks, column, figures, worksheet, entire, population, openoffice, myself, checking, provided, functions, thomas, herndon, dumb, interests, figured, divided, wondering, proportion, unless, having, brain, fart, standardization, getting, assembled, entirely, hides, 1948, 1958, starts, victimize, chopping, lookout, small, large, consequences, lots, particular, force, rise, transition, recent, neat, deal, hidden, own, similarize, cells, formula, bar, screen, jump, pieces, information, handle, come, images, cell, write, files, messes, labeling, manipulate, basic, developing, appearance, memory, understood, check, happy, faint, match, squeezed, legend, amount, overall, offsetting, leaving, standardizing, additional, subtracts, alignment, multiplies, divides, ends, greatly, improved, similarities, differences, location, separate, itself, gather, order, simplify, chop, apply, wide, description, crowds, highest, similarized, division, travel, extremes, lowest, 12th, helluva, revise, deflator, 100, tale, presided, pressures, summarizes, responds, cropped, mostly, sentence, focus, obviously, stephen, starting, 1960s, sort, reverence, kneeling, wonderful, 1968, speech, aea, aftermath, presentation, somewhere, fail, blind, linked, conversion, faith, bothers, meant, birth, parlayed, became, icon, explanation, quiggin, including, argued, critics, persistent, permanent, james, forder, angry, bear, produced, relationships, periods, unchanging, warned, unchanged, classical, rational, microfoundations, began, gain, credibility, thoma, combination, mis, event, acceptance, supposedly, represents, possible, events, play, consistent, stated, rigorous, seriously, iii, summarize, impact, lived, exchange, fish, discovering, swims, learned, eventually, hetzel, prevailing, embraced, 1977, sticky, awkward, buried, quote, missing, temporarily, boom, partly, driven, hopes, happen, promised, economists, impressive, aberration, presumed, paragraphs, assume, tacitly, agreed, fall, essence, lies, assuming, foolish, forming, attach, weight, matters, uncertain, reasonable, guided, considerable, degree, somewhat, confident, decisively, vague, scanty, enter, disproportionately, formation, usual, project, modified, extent, definite, expecting, interval, excitement, serious, discussion, transmission, mechanisms, met, magic, wand, behaviour, unlearning, marxists, internet, section, consume, considering, disallow, choose, whether, consumables, endlessly, stashed, constraints, technologically, increased, resumed, midst, war, highly, repercussion, slightly, lagged, applies, equally, ten, grows, fast, goes, unstable, nations, differently, target, buying, selling, securities, kind, concept, crude, trick, bets, stability, uncirculating, shorthand, pick, kept, portion, begins, enough, sustain, handful, dawn, accept, fact, consider, possibility, visited, desire, save, adjust, public, usually, concerning, turn, perplexity, towards, avoid, nor, radical, cure, afflict, modern, individual, consuming, ordering, asset, precarious, promising, rushlimbaugh, com, hint, adopted, legitimate, intellectual, effective, dealing, anybody, respond, defensive, slam, dunk, hanging, curveball, knock, park, honesty, intelligence, system, amazing, honorable, somebody, cases, adopt, lofty, perch, skeptic, deigning, program, young, buy, journalist, incorrect, assumption, pigeon, hole, structure, audience, proved, utterly, meltzer, strength, admit, premises, luck, paper, scrutiny, community, peer, replication, attempts, extensions, unfortunately, indeed, hurdle, often, disseminated, journals, requirement, otherwise, incentive, researchers, cite, acknowledge, readily, foundation, willing, endorse, front, indexed, interested, participating, sign, principles, yes, rarely, anywhere, generally, reduce, months, seen, deleveraging, remains, stuck, pre, washington, 2008, fallen, currency, belong, note, deposit, liabilities, random, middle, 1992, recognize, reminded, compared, rising, humping, rides, definitely, noticeable, 1985, dragging, along, multiplication, variations, bigger, subtraction, bring, whole, atop, involved, subtracting, techniques, peters, mid, reaches, rockets, stays, decade, late, spiked, 2000s, rose, collapsed, realize, significantly, effects, however, becomes, sooner, conclude, creates, lets, increases, associated, hinder, feb, gimmie, shifted, concluded, plenty, immediately, satisfies, dos, haven, upgraded, quit, definition, reminds, knew, inventory, counts, trivia, explains, remembering, occurrences, interchangeably, impunity, pdfs, plays, nicely, cut, paste, resolves, issues, measured, households, consist, goods, services, encompasses, creation, improvement, replacement, worn, obsolete, willingness, housing, support, a007rc1, guide, nipa, gov, activities, payroll, purchasing, parity, capita, laspeyres, derived, finland, continuing, shown, visually, evident, straight, upcurving, displays, upcurves, difficult, scales, mouse, sketched, trended, thereafter, guy, driver, nobody, faster, strong, suppressed, disposed, corpse, seven, living, standards, slowing, similar, slowdown, deflated, week, shocking, accumulated, publicly, held, weeks, nifty, averages, deviations, compare, took, easy, unfitted, seeing, decided, close, ballpark, downloaded, careful, observe, positions, includes, ambiguity, positioning, completely, combines, intuition, tells, tweak, linking, isn, head, meanwhile, technique, copyright, shipman, withering, shoots, waste, fraud, abuse, verdoorn, urgency, unsustainable, umic, tot, tongue, cheek, tint, knob, supply, transaction, taylor, symmetry, deception, stimulus, star, trek, spreadsheeting, special, report, simulated, simulacron, serfdom, sequence, reduction, reading, printing, controls, predicting, parameters, oil, linear, tools, moving, motives, mmt, military, medium, math, matched, fekete, malaise, variable, limits, captain, introduction, iceberg, couldn, sleep, humor, pay, craft, hodrick, prescott, hoarding, revisionism, phase, gresham, gold, shortage, gds, gang8, mpc, full, disclosure, era, forget, digit, final, feedback, fcm, evolution, excuse, erosion, eroc, forces, echoes, disarray, pull, deflation, outside, reissue, inside, equilibrium, bad, bulge, recovery, context, debasement, cycle, chronicles, coping, coinage, civ, calculating, wealth, bullard, earthquake, behavioral, finte, artish, adjusting, accidental, discoveries, accelerated, repayment, 400k, smoothing, 1966, website, tufte, normalized, mental, workout, numerical, ignorance, kardi, teknomo, jim, organize, supreme, court, jester, prac, vin, faq, bloogger, link, color, codes, sentral, test, schools, menu, host, tips, theory2life, irrational, unsettling, broad, oak, redonomics, thinking, margin, freshman, dolor, rants, dredd, mayday, books, jbpeebles, addicts, anon, frozen, arctic, tundra, blended, purple, candid, troublesome, nextblog, optimist, worthwhile, canadian, father, tim, duy, cybereconomics, businomics, ecometry, william, hummell, flavianopolis, aquinum, razor, crystal, bull, williams, sgs, econompic, secret, wieczorek, perot, historicalstatistics, sources, irs, corp, 2006, dates, top, usgovernmentspending, economagic, 1947, flow, funds, jobs, measuringworth, statistical, abstracts, gavin, kennedy, mason, scribd, 361, 571, 2011, 476, whites, repeat, cause, inflat, alert, transfe, repercussi, 412, 374, 2014, 283, 2015, 318, 274, 2017, versions, showing, accumulating, hurts, preview, template, button, introductory, googledocs, alone, php, art, unusual, mess, overview, death, policies, overlap, recommendations, surprising, short, views, econcrit, premisses,
Text of the page (random words):
f 2008 total reserves red had fallen to about 5 of base posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday august 22 2013 neil irwin can t be right neil irwin in the washington post the u s economy has been growing glacially for the last four years and by almost all tellings the overhang of debt from the pre crisis years is a big part of the reason why by almost all of my tellings yes but i rarely see it anywhere else anyhow if neil irwin is right and people do generally say the overhang of debt is the reason economic growth is glacially slow then why is no one saying we must reduce private debt oh people were saying that in the early months of the crisis but that s all forgotten now i ve not seen the word deleveraging probably since 2009 if it were true that everyone says the overhang of debt is the reason growth remains slow shouldn t we see the blue line stuck at a high level on that graph posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 8 comments wednesday august 21 2013 openness of economic data and code from the repec blog openness of economic data and code the publication of an article or a working paper is only part of the scientific process scrutiny by the scientific community during the peer review process and later through replication attempts and extensions of the original work should be part of it unfortunately very little of that is happening in economics indeed a significant hurdle is that very often the computer code and or the data used for the analysis are not disseminated while some journals now make this a requirement for publication there is otherwise very little incentive for researchers to make this available in part this is also a question of culture as we are not used to cite datasets for example and prefer to acknowledge their use in a footnote to change this culture and push for making code and data more readily available the open knowledge foundation and put together a set of principles on open economics read them and sign on if you think to are willing to endorse them on the repec front we are working to get datasets indexed as well if interested in participating in this contact me posted by the arthurian at 7 22 am 0 comments the nobel prize for ego paul krugman i like to think that if i had been proved as utterly wrong as meltzer i d have had the strength of character to admit it and question my premises but i don t know for sure and with some luck i ll never find out posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday august 20 2013 don t rush me from rushlimbaugh com how to argue with skeptics august 13 2013 rush let me give you a little hint next time you find yourself talking to one of these skeptics and people who have adopted skepticism as a legitimate intellectual position to take one of the most effective ways of dealing not just with people like that but really anybody is never answer their question always respond with a question which puts them on the defensive even if the answer s a slam dunk even if they ask you a question that s a hanging curveball that you could knock out of the park return it with another question questioning them questioning their honesty questioning their intelligence because that s what they re doing with their skepticism they re really challenging you and your mind and your iq your knowledge your belief system it s amazing it s hard to do because most people think that the honorable thing to do somebody asked you a question answer it and it is in most cases but it s fun just never answer question your answer is always another question back at them and therefore reverse the skepticism on em and you become skeptical of them you adopt what they think is the lofty perch you take it from them you become a skeptic right back at them you re skeptical of them just skeptical of their question instead of deigning to answer this is the mistake i made when i was first being interviewed when this program was very young and i d be interviewed buy a journalist i made the incorrect assumption that they really wanted to know the answer they were asking me they really wanted to know what i thought about something and i thought it was an opportunity to really have them get to know me that wasn t what it was about it was about them asking questions trying to pigeon hole me so that they could structure me to their audience in ways they wanted posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday august 19 2013 disastrous cumulative and far reaching repercussions of saving from the marxists internet archive john maynard keynes the general theory of employment interest and money chapter 12 the state of long term expectation from section vi the only radical cure for the crises of confidence which afflict the economic life of the modern world would be to allow the individual no choice between consuming his income and ordering the production of the specific capital asset which even though it be on precarious evidence impresses him as the most promising investment available to him to consume or spend on capital assets with no choice between the only solution keynes can see for the problem he is considering would be to disallow saving to let the income holder choose whether to spend on consumption or to spend on the production of future consumables but not to allow money to be endlessly stashed away in savings keynes continues it might be that at times when he was more than usually assailed by doubts concerning the future he would turn in his perplexity towards more consumption and less new investment but that would avoid the disastrous cumulative and far reaching repercussions of its being open to him when thus assailed by doubts to spend his income neither on the one nor on the other under such constraints the income holder might prefer consumption keynes says but that s not a problem the problem he says is the failure to spend why would keynes say such a thing i don t know you d have to ask him but i know why i would say such a thing this is the technologically current version of one of the graphs i was looking at back in the 1970s graph 1 the non circulating part of m2 relative to the circulating part of m2 savings increased rapidly before the great depression savings fell rapidly during the great depression savings resumed a path of increase in the midst of world war two the turning points are highly significant the great depression was a disastrous and far reaching repercussion of the excessive accumulation of savings here s the debt per dollar graph in red added to the graph above graph 2 the non circulating part of m2 relative to the circulating part of m2 blue and total public and private debt relative to the circulating part of m2 red the two lines move together with debt slightly lagged everything i have ever said about the debt per dollar graph applies equally to the savings per circulating dollar graph interesting that the numbers on the right scale are just ten times the value of those on the left scale that wasn t my doing the crisis economy is different but in the normal economy there is a certain window that money must stay in for prices to remain stable if money grows too fast or too slow it goes out of the window and prices get unstable this is the reason nations have central banks to keep money in the window you might say it differently you might say central banks target interest rates not the quantity of money well yeah they say that don t they but the way they keep interest rates in the certain window is by buying and selling securities and such to adjust the quantity of money we call bank reserves that s what open market operations are in the normal economy there is a certain window that something must stay in for prices to remain stable central banks keep this something in the window by making adjustments to the quantity of the kind of money that central banks issue so there is some stable relation between the q of m and the size of gdp in the normal economy what this relation is a stable ratio for example or a stable rate of change in the ratio is not yet clear here s what i think something like this the concept is yet crude so i need you to try to understand what i m trying to say if m1 m2 is stable then a stable money output ratio is probably what s needed but if m1 m2 is falling if circulating money is falling and savings is increasing relative to the total stock of money then a stable ratio won t do the trick if the m1 m2 decline is stable then a stable increase in the ratio might work but if the m1 m2 is not stable then all bets of stability are off maybe m1 and m2 are out of date i won t even argue the point i m just talking about circulating money and total circulating plus uncirculating money and i m using two character shorthand feel free to pick better data for circulating and total money and get back to me with a graph if the total quantity of money is kept in a window but the circulating portion of it is declining as part of the total then the quantity of money needed available for transactions is declining relative to gdp that s a problem maybe it s not a problem for the people with most of the savings but it s a problem for everybody else and it s a problem for the economy that s why the first turning point on graph 1 comes just as the great depression begins too much money in savings and not enough money circulating to sustain the transactions needed for gdp growth if there is any chance that i am right in saying that excessive savings is the problem any chance that keynes and i and a handful of others since the dawn of civilization are right about this then i can tell you why civilizations die by suicide civilizations die by suicide because excessive savings is a problem and most people refuse to accept the fact most people refuse even to consider the possibility graphs and data can be visited at my savings and dpd google drive spreadsheet related post the desire to save posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments sunday august 18 2013 what else could we reasonably do on expectations from unlearning economics any attempt at a serious discussion of transmission mechanisms is met with expectations as if expectations are a magic wand and not simply a reflection of the actual behaviour of the economy it s awkward when a great line is buried in such a way that when you quote it it seems something is missing and you ought to include the part that came before but anyway what ue says is expectations are a reflection of the actual behavior of the economy expectations depend on economic conditions if you want to improve expectations you have to improve the economy i do think it can temporarily work the other way i think the big boom we had early in the reagan years was partly expectations driven people had big hopes graph 1 the red spike early in the reagan years a brief interval of excitement it didn t last and it didn t happen again expectations were disappointed because the economy wasn t as good as reagan promised it would be as the graph shows but a lot of economists seem to remember the one impressive aberration and base too much of their work on the presumed power of expectations two paragraphs from chapter 12 of the general theory of employment interest and money by john maynard keynes the state of long term expectation it would be foolish in forming our expectations to attach great weight to matters which are very uncertain it is reasonable therefore to be guided to a considerable degree by the facts about which we feel somewhat confident even though they may be less decisively relevant to the issue than other facts about which our knowledge is vague and scanty for this reason the facts of the existing situation enter in a sense disproportionately into the formation of our long term expectations our usual practice being to take the existing situation and to project it into the future modified only to the extent that we have more or less definite reasons for expecting a change in practice we have tacitly agreed as a rule to fall back on what is in truth a convention the essence of this convention though it does not of course work out quite so simply lies in assuming that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely except in so far as we have specific reasons to expect a change expectations are a reflection of the actual behavior of the economy we assume that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely except in so far as we have specific reasons to expect a change what else could we reasonably do posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments labels expectations saturday august 17 2013 when hope interferes science turns to alchemy as i see it there s no clear connection between increasing the q of m and increasing real output as lars christensen sees it easier monetary conditions mean higher nominal gdp growth remember mv ngdp and with sticky prices and excess capacity that most likely also mean higher real gdp growth most likely he says posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday august 16 2013 the key discovery the one success what caused the great inflation according to arthur burns the fed chairman who presided over much of that inflation cost push pressures caused it in a post i return to again and again marcus nunes summarizes that other arthur s view according to robert hetzel during the period of the great inflation the prevailing view and the one embraced by arthur burns fed chairman from 1970 to 1977 was that inflation was a real cost push and therefore non monetary phenomenon nick rowe writes i know what it s like to live in a demand side world because i used to live in one i left that world when i discovered we lived in a monetary exchange economy like a fish discovering it swims in water when i saw the phillips curve shift in the 1970 s when i discovered milton friedman and learned not only that units didn t matter but that the rate of change of units didn t eventually matter either in comments scott sumner responds i remember those days the key discovery was that changing the trend rate of inflation within reason had no impact on the average rate of unemployment i cropped a but mostly sentence from nick to focus on phillips and friedman that s the part sumner calls the key discovery obviously it is pretty important to nick rowe as well let me re summarize a little history from stephen williamson some u s macroeconomic economic history starting with the 1960s let s review that i samuelson solow and others think that the phillips curve is a structural relationship a stable relationship between unemployment and inflation that represents a policy choice for the fed ii friedman in words says that this is not so there is no long run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation it is possible to have high inflation and high unemployment iii macroeconomic events play out in a way consistent with what friedman stated we have high inflation and high unemployment iv lucas writes down a theory that makes r...
|
