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lower depend on how much you subtract as part of the christensen fit calculation actually i was disappointed when i sat down to do the calculation lars s way i had forgotten that christensen s calculation includes an arbitrary up and down adjustment term that term puts the same ambiguity into his calc that i had in my finesse free version it makes the relative positioning of the two lines completely arbitrary that may be necessary when the calc combines two datasets for comparison to one as christensen s does i don t know but intuition tells me that if i take just one dataset like tcmdo and tweak it by the average and the standard deviation values for that dataset then i shouldn t also need an arbitrary up and down adjustment i m not linking to my spreadsheet this time because the calc isn t clear in my head maybe i ve got a mistake in it that looks okay because of the up and down adjustment i made i have to work through this calc and get more familiar with it meanwhile i still think it s an interesting technique posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments friday august 30 2013 which one is not like the others earlier this week i showed the shocking decline of fixed private investment relative to total accumulated debt graph 1 fixed private investment relative to total debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession today we look at fixed private investment relative to components of the total debt graph 2 fixed private investment relative to nonfinancial debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession graph 3 fixed private investment relative to the publicly held part of federal debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession graph 4 fixed private investment relative to non federal non financial debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession graph 5 fixed private investment relative to household debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession graph 6 fixed private investment relative to financial debt it seems to show a trend change toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession which one is not like the others posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fpi pfi thursday august 29 2013 log of real fixed private investment and trends hover the mouse over the graph to see the trend lines i sketched in graph 1 fixed private investment deflated log of it looks like investment growth trended at one rate right up to 1980 and at a slower rate thereafter i don t imagine i m the first guy to say that but i do want to point out that the growth of real gdp shows a similar slowdown right around 1980 of course it makes sense that if economic growth slowed in 1980 the driver of economic growth also slowed around that time it makes sense the thing is nobody says it no for example scott sumner says this growth was slowing almost everywhere in the 1970s and 1980s and this growth in us living standards slowed after 1973 after 1973 yeah about seven years after 1973 between the 1974 recession and the 1980 recession graph 1 shows fpi increasing faster than at any other time since 1960 growth was strong after the 1974 recession growth didn t slow then growth didn t slow until paul volcker suppressed inflation and disposed of the corpse of vigor posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fpi pfi wednesday august 28 2013 just by eye continuing our look at fixed private investment and total debt the growth of fixed private investment peaks before the growth of total debt graph 1 fixed private investment blue and total credit market debt red on log scales the values are shown on a log scale to make growth rates visually evident investment the blue line appears to curve gradually upward until 1980 then trends upward at a slower pace on a straight rather than upcurving path debt the red line appears to curve gradually upward until around 1986 then trends upward at a slower pace on a path that displays little if any upward curve the upward curve of the blue line appears to run from 1960 to 1980 that of the red line from 1970 to near 1990 either or both of these upcurves might be related to the great inflation and they probably are but it is difficult by eye to imagine why inflation would appear first in the investment numbers and later in the debt numbers posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fpi pfi tuesday august 27 2013 a barometer of growth a search for pfi at fred turned up plenty of results but only one containing the word investment purchasing power parity converted gdp per capita laspeyres derived from growth rates of consumption government consumption investment for finland i didn t go there that search also turned up one result containing the word private nonfarm private financial activities payroll employment i didn t go there it turned up no result containing the word fixed a search for fpi at fred brings you immediately to the fixed private investment graph there the notes tell us notes bea account code a007rc1 a guide to the national income and product accounts of the united states nipa http www bea gov national pdf nipaguid pdf at the nipaguid pdf a name that satisfies the 8 character limit of ms dos file names in case you haven t yet upgraded we find the phrase private fixed investment on page 5 and in a table on page 7 and on page 14 gross domestic investment 6 1 measures the total investment in the united states in fixed assets that is the structures equipment and software that are used in production and in inventories change in private inventories it is the sum of private fixed investment see 1 20 government fixed investment see 1 29 and change in private inventories 1 25 i quit looking for pfi at that point i like that definition it reminds me of something i once knew that change in inventory counts as part of investment that s an important bit of trivia which explains the s i thing people are always talking about not relevant to this post but worth remembering certainly there were no occurrences in the nipaguid of the phrase fixed private investment so what fred calls fpi and what bea calls pfi are the same thing i can talk of fixed private investment and private fixed investment interchangeably with impunity good because in a different pdf from bea or actually in chapter 6 of what looks like the same nipaguid but in a different file we find this private fixed investment pfi measures spending by private businesses nonprofit institutions and households on fixed assets in the u s economy fixed assets consist of structures equipment and software that are used in the production of goods and services pfi encompasses the creation of new productive assets the improvement of existing assets and the replacement of worn out or obsolete assets the pfi estimates serve as an indicator of the willingness of private businesses and nonprofit institutions to expand their production capacity and as an indicator of the demand for housing thus movements in pfi serve as a barometer of confidence in and support for future economic growth a barometer of growth i said that yesterday neither of those pdfs plays nicely with ctrl c cut and ctrl v paste operations this post resolves two issues first that pfi and fpi are two names for the same thing second what is measured by fred s fpi posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 10 comments labels fpi pfi monday august 26 2013 looks like a measure of the economy s performance yesterday i concluded so we see that when debt is relatively low economic growth or in this case fixed private investment is relatively high but when debt is relatively high investment doesn t run higher and sometimes it runs low so the next thing i want to see is fixed private investment relative to total debt graph 1 fixed private investment relative to total debt it looks like a measure of the economy s performance for the last 60 years it is posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fpi pfi sunday august 25 2013 fixed private investment random eyes showed me fixed private investment relative to gdp graph 1 fixed private investment relative to gdp low in the early years then three humps in the middle years then a significant decline corresponding to the decline in total debt growth 1986 1992 then a couple high points that i don t recognize but the pattern reminded me of total debt growth so i compared the growth of fixed private investment to the growth of total debt graph 2 growth rates of fixed private investment blue and total debt red low together in the early years rising together humping together and declining together there even seems to be similarity in the years after 1990 though the red line rides a little higher on the blue definitely noticeable in the hump years 1970 1985 the blue peaks lead and the red peaks lag investment seems to spike up dragging debt along behind it but maybe that lag was related more to inflation than to investment for in the years before 1970 the lag is less obvious or maybe the debt humps were just smaller in the early years i can use a little multiplication to make the up and down variations in the red line bigger and then a little subtraction to bring the whole red line down and position it atop the blue line again graph 3 the red line from graph 2 debt scaled up and shifted down for comparison no finesse was involved 3 and 20 were the first numbers i tried but multiplying to scale things up and subtracting to line things up are the same techniques used by lars christensen for his market index calculation which i looked at here in the early years on graph 3 debt the red line runs low relative to fixed private investment blue they run neck and neck through the first two humps but in the third hump investment peters out early while debt continues to increase to the mid 1980s when debt growth reaches a low in the early 1990s investment rockets up and stays relatively high for most of the decade in the late 1990s debt blue spiked up to meet investment then fell then investment fell in the 2000s again debt growth rose to meet investment and both collapsed i realize that rates and levels are not the same thing a low level of debt and a high level of debt both growing at the same rate may have significantly different effects on the economy however a low level of debt becomes a high level sooner at a high rate of growth so rates and levels are related we ve been looking at growth rates in the graphs today and now i will conclude by talking about levels they re related what i think is creating debt creates new money which lets spending expand this is necessary for growth at least under existing policy but creating debt also adds to the total accumulation of debt and increases the cost associated with that accumulation this cost can hinder growth so we see that when debt is relatively low economic growth or in this case fixed private investment is relatively high but when debt is relatively high investment doesn t run higher and sometimes it runs low related posts gimmie some slack 4 feb 2010 credit efficiency 21 march 2010 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 10 comments labels fpi pfi saturday august 24 2013 the components of base money 3 graph 1 not sure if these two lines belong on the same graph the red line shows total reserves as a percent of the monetary base same as yesterday the blue shows total reserves as a percent of note and deposit liabilities for an earlier time sure looks to me like the two lines fit together posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments friday august 23 2013 the components of base money 2 graph 1 the currency component of base money blue and the reserves component of base money red just before the problems of 2008 total reserves red had fallen to about 5 of base posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday august 22 2013 neil irwin can t be right neil irwin in the washington post the u s economy has been growing glacially for the last four years and by almost all tellings the overhang of debt from the pre crisis years is a big part of the reason why by almost all of my tellings yes but i rarely see it anywhere else anyhow if neil irwin is right and people do generally say the overhang of debt is the reason economic growth is glacially slow then why is no one saying we must reduce private debt oh people were saying that in the early months of the crisis but that s all forgotten now i ve not seen the word deleveraging probably since 2009 if it were true that everyone says the overhang of debt is the reason growth remains slow shouldn t we see the blue line stuck at a high level on that graph posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 8 comments wednesday august 21 2013 openness of economic data and code from the repec blog openness of economic data and code the publication of an article or a working paper is only part of the scientific process scrutiny by the scientific community during the peer review process and later through replication attempts and extensions of the original work should be part of it unfortunately very little of that is happening in economics indeed a significant hurdle is that very often the computer code and or the data used for the analysis are not disseminated while some journals now make this a requirement for publication there is otherwise very little incentive for researchers to make this available in part this is also a question of culture as we are not used to cite datasets for example and prefer to acknowledge their use in a footnote to change this culture and push for making code and data more readily available the open knowledge foundation and put together a set of principles on open economics read them and sign on if you think to are willing to endorse them on the repec front we are working to get datasets indexed as well if interested in participating in this contact me posted by the arthurian at 7 22 am 0 comments the nobel prize for ego paul krugman i like to think that if i had been proved as utterly wrong as meltzer i d have had the strength of character to admit it and question my premises but i don t know for sure and with some luck i ll never find out posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday august 20 2013 don t rush me from rushlimbaugh com how to argue with skeptics august 13 2013 rush let me give you a little hint next time you find yourself talking to one of these skeptics and people who have adopted skepticism as a legitimate intellectual position to take one of the most effective ways of dealing not just with people like that but re...