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a merchandise of science for the improvement of my fortune from descartes selections edited by ralph m eaton the modern student s library philosophy series charles scribner s sons new york 1927 page 8 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday july 23 2014 focus smith was not the first nor the only 18th century political economist he wrote just before what we call the industrial revolution his focus was on history not the future he did not make predictions for the future he tried to understand the past as a guide to the present gavin kennedy on adam smith posted by the arthurian at 10 52 pm 0 comments what s wrong with economic theory today one of the first of the considerations that occurred to me was that there is very often less perfection in works composed of several portions and carried out by the hands of various masters than in those on which one individual alone has worked descartes posted by the arthurian at 10 22 pm 1 comments tuesday july 22 2014 but they haven t learned how to theorize frances woolley at wci they can follow the most complicated plans and build any model they are asked to build but they struggle to come with an idea of their own to decide what they want to build nothing in their training has encouraged them to fill their minds with ideas nor taught them to distinguish the awesome from the not so awesome posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday july 20 2014 new and different i want to make it clear that i am talking about a new and different policy we have a new and different chairman at the federal reserve janet yellen but having a new and different chairman does not necessarily mean new and different policy from brookings fed unveils a new job market index by david wessel in her testimony to congress this week ms yellen said that significant slack remains in the labor markets and noted that wages are rising very slowly all of which points to an economy which has not yet fully recovered from the great recession and still needs the sustenance of low interest rates most people might evaluate yellen s remark by focusing on whether or not significant slack remains everyone is wagging the same tongue the economy is recovering or it is not it is time to raise interest rates or it is not inflation is just around the corner or it is not endless prattle tiresome and nonproductive open your mind this is not the thing we have one policy that lowers interest rates to boost economic growth and another policy that raises interest rates to fight inflation that s not it this is it we have a policy that raises or lowers interest rates depending on whether we are more concerned about inflation or growth it is one policy we change interest rates it is only one policy with two phases you might say so if we toss aside one fed chairman and install another hoping to see or not to see a change in the path of interest rates this is not a change it would be a change if we were to abandon our policy of raising and lowering interest rates and adopt some other policy or combination of policies in its place that would be a change that would be new and different thus the remedy for the boom is not a higher rate of interest but a lower rate of interest for that may enable the so called boom to last the right remedy for the trade cycle is not to be found in abolishing booms and thus keeping us permanently in a semi slump but in abolishing slumps and thus keeping us permanently in a quasi boom j m keynes david wessel says janet yellen says that the economy still needs the sustenance of low interest rates no not still needs the economy always needs the sustenance of low interest rates but this means we cannot raise interest rates as a policy tool to fight inflation and that means we need a different policy tool to fight inflation see this is what i mean by new and different it isn t new and different if we push interest rates up instead of down it isn t new and different if we hold interest rates down instead of letting them up it s not different if we exhale instead of inhale it would be different if we suddenly got gills or if we started absorbing oxygen through the skin and didn t need lungs anymore that would be different we have to keep interest rates on the low side always so that the economy can grow if you do not reject this idea immediately you can think about it and you must say but if interest rates remain low there will be too much borrowing and spending and we will get inflation you are right so let us examine the problem that arises if we keep interest rates low we get too much borrowing the increased borrowing leads to increased spending and the increased spending leads to inflation okay that wasn t nearly as painful as i thought now if we keep interest rates low and remain permanently in a quasi boom we get increased borrowing and increased spending we get increasing debt and increasing prices this is undeniable it happened in the 1960s and 70s and yet did you notice in the years after 2008 there was a great deleveraging debt stopped increasing and the money supply stopped growing the fed responded with bizarre emergency measures boosting the quantity of money to avoid deflation people focused on paying down debt and the threat of inflation disappeared did you notice paying down debt is a way to fight inflation suppose we keep interest rates low and as a result we see an increase in borrowing and the growth of debt we see an increase in spending and rising prices but if we can only find a way to encourage a more rapid paydown of debt we can have the increase in borrowing without seeing the growth of debt we can get the economic vigor that comes from new borrowing without having to face the significant slack that arises from an excessive burden of debt and if we find a way to encourage more rapid paydown of debt the paydown of debt will drain money from the spending stream limit the increase of spending and limit inflation if we can only find a way to encourage a more rapid paydown of debt child s play all we have to do is start weeding out the policies that encourage use of credit and accumulation of debt and replace them with policies designed to accelerate the repayment of debt this is what i mean by new and different policy not interest rates that run high and low like the tides rather a commitment to low rates and strong growth permanently and commitment to a tax policy that fights inflation by accelerating the repayment of debt and by preventing the excessive accumulation of private debt permanently this is what i mean by new and different more an arthurian future geanakoplos and the can of worms sumner engages the crystal ball posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments saturday july 19 2014 penn world tables the notes tab of fred s total factor productivity page has a for more information link to the research tab at penn world table pwt the pwt page offers several tables including a data table that table lists several measures of real gdp but also da and ga development accounting and growth accounting da provides the sources of differences in living standards at a point in time that sounds interesting the words living standards capture one s attention ga growth accounting provides the sources of economic growth over time not too long ago i looked a bit at the solow growth model it s something i want to look at again i clicked this one here s a piece of what i got data goes back to 1950 that s decent several countries okay capital stock values yeah that s related to the solow growth model okay if they re so blunt as to present that particular set of nations instead of maybe the g7 nations they have to be bold enough to make it easy to change what shows up on the list yup see that red dot in the upper left just above the table adjust criteria you got it there s a lot of countries to pick from and more and it s pretty intuitive and the adjust criteria page has a red dot in the upper right pointing right that gets you back to the data table very nice something i never saw on line before in the table in the header area at the left it says toggle display i didn t try that one yet but to the right of it there are four little arrows hover over the down arrow and a tag says change order hover over the diagonal arrow and the tag says move to y axis that i never saw on line before i didn t play with the buttons i adjusted the criteria to show only u s data because i m focused or myopic whatever the previous table shows capital stock at constant 2005 national prices for half a dozen countries the following table shows capital stock and four other growth accounting related data categories if you need to see it bigger click the image or just go to penn world tables i like the place already posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday july 18 2014 they re five cents lower per pound on welding wire you know you have to compare prices to get the best deal you also know that the big companies can give you lower prices than the little companies it s buying in bulk or economies of scale or some such thing but let me ask you this do you think it s right that the government should help the big companies more than it helps little ones help walmart drive mom n pop out of business is that right certainly not and yet we have a business income tax system that lets you write off all your expenses gives you a tax break for all your expenses so if you re mom n pop with business expenses of a hundred thousand a year you avoid paying taxes on 100 000 if you re one of the big guys with business expenses of several billion dollars a year you avoid taxes on several billion dollars because of our tax system our tax system favors bigness and then we moan about too big to fail btw the total amount of business income tax deductions is approximately twice the size of gdp posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments thursday july 17 2014 scatterplotting debt at the fred blog debt and deficit to gdp dynamics three scatter plots of government debt versus government deficit since 2001 graphs for the u s japan and the euro area i will only look at u s data the opening sentence of the fred blog post several historical examples show that financial crises generate large increases in private and public debt that take many years and sometimes drastic measures to resolve sadly ironically typically they speak of private and public debt but they only look at public debt that s okay i ll fill in the blank here s the first graph from the fred blog post graph 1 federal debt vertical scale versus federal deficit horizontal scale 2001 2013 the uppermost red dot represents 2013 if you count years backwards from that dot following the red line you see that the leftmost dot represents 2009 and that the dot before that 2008 is far removed from the 2009 dot and clustered with the dots from before 2008 if you know that the federal debt for 2013 was the highest since world war two you can tell that the highest dot on the graph is the 2013 dot and if you know that 2009 had the big increase in federal deficits and that the deficits have been getting smaller since you can tell that the leftmost point is the 2009 dot i didn t remember those things so i had to look around some i followed the blog s customize link to the fred source page and pushed the start date back to 1970 so we can see all the dots on the first graph and more graph 2 federal debt vertical scale versus federal deficit horizontal scale 1970 2013 easier to see now the 2008 dot is the last in a cluster for some reason the color setting changed when i changed the start year i couldn t duplicate their setting what this graph shows is that before 2009 the federal deficits ranged between zero and six percent of gdp it also shows the budget surplus of the clinton years looks like four years in surplus with a maximum surplus of just over 2 of gdp during that time 1970 to 2008 the federal debt ranged from 30 to about 65 of gdp never over 70 but tending to increase rather than decrease the big massive jump from 2008 to the leftmost dot 2009 pushed debt up over 80 of gdp a slowing economy i mean slowing gdp growth also helped push the dots higher since the fred blog failed to do it i thought i d look at federal debt versus non federal debt graph 3 federal debt horizontal versus non federal debt vertical 1949 2013 the last dot on the right represents 2013 counting backwards you can see the line runs flat back to 2008 no up and down movement no change in non federal debt and large rightward steps showing big increase in the federal debt before 2008 there is a general upward trend the dots climb with regularity from the start then there is a sweep around to the right and back to the left suddenly then it turns a corner and climbs with regularity again toward 2008 counting backwards from the rightmost dot again 2013 it turns out that the dot at the corner represents 2001 the leftward sweep for the few years before 2001 just below it on the graph show the latter clinton years when the federal budget was coming briefly into balance on graph 3 the horizontal scale which shows the size of federal debt runs from zero to something over 10000 the vertical scale which shows the size of non federal debt runs much higher up to 50 000 but here s the thing on the vertical scale the distance from zero to 10 000 is about half an inch maybe less on the horizontal scale the distance from zero to 10 000 is about 3 inches maybe more the two scales are quite different i re sized the graph to make 10 000 vertical about the same size as 10 000 horizontal this should give you a better feel for the relative sizes of federal and non federal debt horizontal distances measure federal debt verticals measure everyone else s debt graph 4 federal horizontal v nonfederal vertical debt similar scaling you don t even believe it do ya posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday july 16 2014 gds vs gdp crude but you get the idea the snowplow hit our mailbox last winter broke the post i went out and got a 2x4 and made a new mailbox post the work was easier than i expected the other day i was looking for something in the garage i found a 3 foot length of 2x4 left over from the mailbox repair i kept it because because you never know it occurs to me that the 2x4 i bought is a model of gross domestic spending the part of the 2x4 i used to make the post well that s the output that s gdp final spending and the 3 foot difference that s sort of like non final spending if i had a customer that paid me for the mailbox job my little metaphor would be more accurate but as it is i was the final customer mine was the final spending my work was for my own satisfaction according to the irs so i got no tax deductions for my spending and my 3 foot leftover piece is just post consumption detritus guess i could pay somebody to haul it to the dump and that would add a little more to gdp what seems to bother most people ...
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