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icas in some respects but not others and i was struck by a remarkable difference in how the topic of historical demography has been handled by africanist scholars in the same period when it became a very large focus of attention for americanists i e the 1960s and 1970s briefly while there is historical evidence of population declines in at least some parts of africa of the same magnitude seen in the americas 50 90 in some cases the implications of this decline for the societies in question seems to have aroused little interest from scholars these declines are often mentioned offhand in footnotes or briefly in a text that goes on to discuss other historical or anthropological topics it s not that the scholars are dismissing the veracity of either the population numbers or the magnitude of decline mentioned in their sources as was the case with earlier generations of americanist scholarship instead they just don t seem to care at all or to see these declines are relevant to their main interests but these are huge declines often over very short periods for example the area that is now the republic of sudan is said to have lost something like 80 of its population to a combination of warfare and disease in the few years of the mahdist uprising in the 1890s that s enormous and very recent so much so that s the figures are likely to be pretty accurate in the absence of evidence to the contrary but they re so huge that it seems likely that they are exaggerated and i d be interested to see some informed source criticism looking at how reliable these numbers are studies like this from the same period and more recently doing just that are common in the americas but i have hardly found any for africa covering any period one interesting study of the coastal mpongwe people of gabon who were in close contact with europeans for a long time concluded that the dramatic population collapse reported was in fact plausible due to similar contact conditions as typically obtained in the americas but not in most other parts of africa but otherwise this type of study seems to be very rare not that demography was not of interest to africanists at this time mind you but the main focus was on trying to quantify the impact of the slave trade to the americas a very different sort of concern from those of americanists the background here is that there was a persistent narrative fostered especially by nineteenth century abolitionists that the slave trade was leading to massive depopulation of african people with subsequent negative effects on societies within africa there were counterarguments and the debate went back and forth for decades forming a crucial backdrop to the advent of direct european colonization and pacification of the continent which was often justified in the name of eliminating slavery by the 1960s this age old debate was starting to get some rigorous quantitative attention the key figure here is philip curtin a pioneering economic historian of africa who was then at the university of wisconsin in 1969 he published a book called the atlantic slave trade a census which was as revolutionary in the study of the african slave trade as henry dobyns s work on native american population around the same time was on that field curtin tried to compile and evaluate whatever quantitative information was available to come up with as rigorous a set of figures as possible for the trade over the course of centuries unlike dobyns s work however curtin s numbers ended up being significantly lower than previous estimates which may well have been exaggerated by abolitionists trying to stir up opposition to the slave trade this caused some controversy and pushback especially by some african researchers who took issue with aspects of curtin s methodology but overall curtin s figures were accepted by the field and have formed a baseline ever since for those trying to evaluate the impact of the trade so what was that impact well it s still hard to say curtin s lower figures suggest that the direct demographic impacts of the trade were likely limited this is not to say that the reorientation of many societies especially in west africa the main area of focus of the atlantic trade for most of its existence didn t have important social and economic impacts both the exporting societies on the coast which tended to be complex state level entities that increased in complexity over time and the main supply areas in the interior which tended to be somewhat less complex were clearly affected in various ways by slave raiding and trading the exact extent of these effects and the way they shifted over time is the subject of a vast literature of which i have been able to read only a tiny portion and there doesn t seem to be much consensus one key difference between africa and the americas of course which lurks in the background of all comparisons like this is that the indigenous people of most parts of africa managed to survive both the slave trade and the period of colonialism that followed and the continent is now divided overwhelmingly into independent post colonial states european colonization only took place on any significant scale in a few places and of those societies still fewer managed to persist past independence the americas are like a mirror image of this situation with only a few areas still maintaining a significant native population and the rest of the hemisphere dominated by settler societies which may have significantly mixed ancestry of course clearly these contrasting modern situations have colored the interests of scholars in complex ways especially in a period that saw both the fall of the great colonial empires in africa as well as a revival of interest in native american history and traditional culture why the patterns of scholarship ended up how they did exactly is still a bit of a puzzle to me though posted in series virgin soil widowed land leave a comment virgin soil widowed land high count hegemony december 21 2022 by teofilo arizona welcome sign if sherburne f cook was the dominant figure in the berkeley era of the study of native american historical demography his equivalent in the next period was undoubtedly henry f dobyns dobyns was a complicated controversial figure and his legacy today is decidedly mixed but his importance to the intellectual history of this issue is unquestionable it is no exaggeration to say that he single handedly launched the topic into the scholarly limelight and he continued to pursue it for decades even as questions about his own methodology and approach began to spur a backlash although the history is complicated for convenience and in recognition of dobyns s importance i ve defined this period as bracketed by what are probably his two most important publications on the subject his 1966 paper in current anthropology that first drew extensive scholarly interest to the subfield and was enormously influential in defining it and his 1983 book that while also very influential in some circles in others was considered a major overreach that threw his whole approach into question in between numerous scholars from a wide variety of disciplines investigated the question of population history and the impact of epidemic disease with an unprecedented fervor most of these studies certainly the most influential ones ended up falling on the high counter side of the demographic debate with its obvious political implications during a period of intense political awareness activism and dispute there was a clear sense that the high counter position was ascendant and revolutionizing the whole world s understanding of the tragedies of the past and how they led inexorably to the inequities of the present as i ve noted before though this is an oversimplification a parallel tradition of low counts continued as an undercurrent to the high count hegemony mostly focused in certain disciplines and institutions this current would emerge into higher prominence in the 1980s and afterward as the work of dobyns and his acolytes started to be questioned by a wide variety of detailed empirical studies of particular regions ironically this turn in the scholarship would come as the earlier high count research was just beginning to be incorporated into more popularized accounts which made it better known among the general public this chapter of the story is in some sense the heart of it in some ways it s a story of scholarly hubris particularly on the part of dobyns personally that eventually led to a painful reckoning but again that is too simple the high counters of this era made enduring contributions to understanding of this issue even if not all of their specific conclusions have stood the test of time in a qualitative sense at least even their strongest critics would mostly concede that they were closer to capturing the historical reality than most of their predecessors their greatest flaw perhaps unsurprising in the context of the mid century modernist context in which they worked may have been an excessive confidence in the potential for academic research to provide specific detailed answers to complicated historical questions dobyns was born and raised in arizona and his early anthropological work focused mainly on the tribes there including providing support to their land claims cases against the federal government in the 1950s after getting his ph d from cornell university in 1960 he was hired by cornell and went to peru to work on the vicos project an innovative and groundbreaking exercise in applied anthropology both in arizona and peru dobyns also did research in the colonial and mission archives and developed an interest in historical demography he noticed very severe population declines in the records of both areas and began to develop a theory for what was behind them that would end up being enormously influential in anthropology and beyond dobyns published some early work on the population dynamics of southern arizona but his first widely influential publication was a 1963 article on the history of epidemics in peru this article was foundational to the emerging interest in disease history and is still widely cited today his most important early work however was the aforementioned 1966 current anthropology article in which he reviewed previous approaches to the issue of precontact population and introduced a new methodology and estimate of his own the majority of this article consists of a thorough and detailed analysis of all the methodologies that had been used to estimate pre contact native american populations dobyns convincingly demonstrates that the various techniques used by the low counter school of mooney and kroeber likely underestimated numbers by disregarding the accounts of contemporary observers and relying overly on extrapolations from later ethnography he is more positive about the innovative estimation and extrapolation methods of cook and others in his circle at berkeley in addition he forcefully points out the importance of disease in affecting population numbers a factor largely ignored by the previous researchers he cites with the partial exception of cook in fact dobyns discusses in detail cook s monograph on the malaria epidemic of the 1830s in oregon and california a very important study still widely cited today dobyns specifically emphasizes two important but underappreciated aspects of disease in relation to demography cook s analysis of this california epidemic demonstrated the operation of two very important processes in the human ecology of aboriginal american populations first he showed the magnitude of mortality which a single epidemic can cause in a non resistant population second he called attention to the biological fact that epidemic infection is not limited to tribal populations in immediate face to face contact with europeans the decimation of native californians was not limited to missionized indians but extended outward as far as disease agent and vector could spread infection from intrusive white carriers to aboriginal populations it is necessary to maintain constant awareness of these two processes or fundamental trends among natives of the new world any interpretation of reported native populations during the early years of contact with europeans which ignores the tremendous mortality caused by epidemics inevitably underestimates the size of the aboriginal populace dobyns would continue to emphasize these factors throughout his career dobyns s analysis of past work is highly convincing in showing the flaws that led to past underestimation of population numbers and this accounts in part for the influence this paper has had on subsequent scholarship he went beyond this however and also attempted to devise a new methodology which would avoid those flaws and provide a sounder basis for making estimates here he starts to make some assumptions and interpretive leaps that would ultimately lead him into some methodological flaws of his own dobyns starts by defining a depopulation ratio comparing the population of a given group at two times in its history the two times he is particularly concerned with are the group s precontact population or as close to it as is possible to get and the time when it hit its nadir of population and began to grow again as most native populations eventually did he doesn t really justify his use of these two endpoints or the generalizability of a ratio derived from them he looks at several well documented cases including central mexico the andes california the amazon and the piman speakers of southern arizona and northern sonora and derives to his satisfaction a ratio of 20 1 as a sound if perhaps conservative tool to employ as a hemispheric minimum he considers 25 1 an alternative ratio to derive a reasonable range using these two ratios and available data on population nadirs he comes up with an aggregate hemispheric estimate of 90 043 000 to 112 553 750 for the whole western hemisphere at contact kroeber had estimated 8 400 000 a hundred million people this conclusion was striking and contributed to the influence of dobyns on further research he notes in the paper that cook s berkeley colleague woodrow borah had recently come to a very similar estimate so he was not totally on his own and in some ways his estimate was a plausible expansion of the increasingly high counts that were coming out of berkeley in the wake of cook s pioneering research much of that research was in relatively obscure regional publications however and it was dobyns who brought it to one of the flagship publications of american anthropology and garnered a large audience as it typically does for its major paper current anthropology sent the paper around to a wide variety of other scholars and published their comments which were mostly very positive with occasional reservations on particular points the combination of bold thinking with seemingly innovative quantitative techniques fit well w...
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