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it labor cost nuance odious policy merry christmas rgdp annual change and a 21 year moving average a christmas story the meme that refuses to die nuance the interaction of cycles evolution money and social possibilities before the so long trends in monetary phenomena egads tfa suffix tfa you pays your money that sharp decline piling up claims to enjoyment the marginal propensity to consume two of a kind a cpi prism the decline of average growth n andrews unemployment and debt a real rate pattern the kondratieff cycle real or fabricated cycling brushing it off like lint the domesday book online which correspond to the business cycle resistance is not feudal maybe something will turn up michael hudson historian plus they get to write this off longwave 3 roy g biv playing the numbers november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman saturday december 31 2011 delong and short of it delong h t jazz in 1950 finance and insurance in the united states accounted for 2 8 of gdp according to us department of commerce estimates by 1960 that share had grown to 3 8 of gdp and reached 6 of gdp in 1990 today it is 8 4 of gdp and it is not shrinking jazzbumpa the yearly values for gdp growth since the 50 s are contained in a collapsing envelope indicated by the green trend lines these lines converge at about 1 8 in 2028 make of it what you will graph 1 graph updated 2 jan 2012 posted by the arthurian at 8 00 am 1 comments nyrs i was gonna say i m not gonna try so hard this year to have a post every day but i changed my mind i am gonna try so hard to have a post every day i d like to organize my post tags slash labels better and put a bibliography and some other stuff together for pages dunno if like to counts as a new year s resolution i want to write better descriptions for example when i wrote treating it as the kind of fact that always has been the kind of was kind of weak i changed it to sort of but that was sort of weak too and they were both ambiguous did they mean actually quite or did they specify a type of fact i went back and forth between kind of and sort of a few times then suddenly settled on type of treating it as the type of fact that always has been words matter john madden used to talk about the red zone and then everybody was talking about the red zone except one announcer who kept talking about the red area it was just so wrong and i want to write stronger conclusions in large part this means that if i write a sentence and you are supposed to draw a conclusion from it then i am supposed to actually write that conclusion so that we both know what i was thinking and i want to avoid alienating people yeh i have to write that one down or i won t think of it in sum better descriptions better conclusions and a better attitude happy new year p s more posts on private debt i hereby resolve at least once a month maybe every week posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday december 30 2011 keen steve keen took a survey and wrote about it the first question is it important for the commonwealth government to aim for a budget surplus in 2012 13 why should it continue to aim for surplus even if international conditions worsen keen s answer no it s a nonsense neoclassical fantasy to blame this crisis on government debt when its underlying cause has always been a private sector debt bubble that has now burst now that the private sector is finally deleveraging in australia after the first home vendors boost delayed the process the last thing we need is for the public sector to also be pulling money out of circulation which is what a government surplus would do keen does not blame this crisis on government debt keen is right the cause he says is a private sector debt bubble that has now burst a debt bubble refers to rapid growth of debt rapid growth of private sector debt is very close to what i say is the problem i say the accumulation of private debt became unsupportable of course the rapid growth of debt made the accumulation unsupportable sooner but it would have happened anyway eventually when slowly growing debt reached an unsupportable level finally keen says the last thing we need is for the public sector to also be pulling money out of circulation and i say we need to increase m1 which is money in circulation see how close we are me and keen he says debt was growing too fast and money isn t growing fast enough i say we must reduce the debt per dollar ratio same thing posted by the arthurian at 7 03 pm 4 comments unexpectedly weak productivity growth graph 3 from yesterday i want to see those increases in output per hour so i turned off the log scale and looked at percent change from year ago values not so obvious before 1960 where the recessions are close together but after 1960 it seems that productivity spikes up immediately after a recession then trends more slowly downward to the next recession you can see it after the 1960 recession and maybe the 1970 recession and definitely after the 1974 recession and the 1982 recession and the 2001 recession it is worth repeating that the normal pattern is a rapid increase in productivity immediately following a recession then a gradual decline continuing to the next recession however we do not see that normal pattern following our most recent recession instead we see a rapid increase in productivity and a rapid decline posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday december 29 2011 unexpectedly strong productivity growth from the same working paper i referenced yesterday morning during the so called new economy era labor productivity output per hour played a key role in shaping the federal open market committee s fomc response to evolving economic conditions indeed productivity discussions have a long history at fomc meetings for instance unexpectedly strong productivity growth during the early 1980s generated arguments that would become familiar to participants more than a decade later hmm productivity growth during the new economy era of 1994 2001 and productivity growth during the early 1980s went to fred searched for output per hour found 26 series some are for manufacturing in other nations some have start dates in the 1980s and 1990s i sorted the results by start date selected the four domestic u s series with start dates before 1960 and clicked add to new graph graph 1 four measures of output per hour next i looked at it on a log scale because it was easy to do graph 2 same as the first graph but on a log scale i want to see the changes in output per hour so i turned off the log scale and looked at percent change from year ago values graph 3 same as the first graph but as change from year ago not so obvious before 1960 where the recessions are close together but after 1960 it seems that productivity spikes up immediately at the end of a recession then trends more slowly downward to the next recession you can see it after the 1960 recession and maybe the 1970 recession and definitely after the 1974 recession and the 1982 recession and the 2001 recession but not after the 1991 recession from maybe 1993 productivity trends upward to 2000 or later this difference corresponds to the new economy era 1994 2001 described in the working paper this is the same period that robert j gordon has called the u s macroeconomic miracle i want to focus now on output per hour in manufacturing in the united states the green line from graph 3 above graph 4 output per hour in manufacturing u s i see two spikes between 1982 and 1990 the first comes at the end of a recession the second comes later more like the result of a miracle than the aftermath of a recession this i suspect is an indication of the strong productivity growth during the early 1980s noted in the working paper despite the date discrepancy now i want to take graph 4 and add to it in red the percent change numbers for base money graph 5 growth rates of output per hour green and base money between the 1974 and 1980 recessions the red and green lines quite clearly move in opposite directions but that pattern changed coming out of the 1982 recession productivity and money growth peak twice simultaneously before the next recession then beginning with the 1991 recession both lines show a third peak this time a double peak and in the latter 1990s the new economy years the red and green lines quite clearly move together the three peaks i point out between the 1982 recession and the mid 1990s are the same three bumps i have pointed out several times before on this blog the red line on graph 5 shows the growth rate of base money for the record base money is money actually issued by the central bank of a country those bumps in the money are part of a policy that allowed unexpectedly strong productivity growth to develop ever so briefly posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 9 comments wednesday december 28 2011 it s a start krugman private debt doesn t directly make us poorer but it increases our macroeconomic vulnerability yeah it makes financial crisis possible it makes debt deflation possible it makes bizarre policy responses necessary so that people question government more and like that macroeconomic vulnerability plus it increases financial income relative to productive income this is good for the growth of finance and speculation and bad for the growth of output excessive private debt is the original source of inadequate growth plus it increases costs and drives cost push inflation and like that posted by the arthurian at 6 53 pm 0 comments shocking answers not long ago at asymptosis the fed always thinks that unemployment s not a problem their model is obviously telling them that whatever non actions they re taking at the moment will solve the problem and their model is obviously consistently and wildly wrong and always wrong in the same direction altering that model to accurately predict unemployment of course would require that they allow more inflation in order to address both of their mandates and higher inflation utterly slams the real wealth of creditors and the fed is run by creditors from the st louis fed working paper 2011 041a by richard g anderson and kevin l kliesen how does the fomc learn about economic revolutions evidence from the new economy era 1994 2001 for monetary policymakers and for business economists a major challenge is tracking understanding and recognizing changes in the economy as they occur economists are fond of modeling economies as mathematical systems but some policymakers former fed chairman alan greenspan perhaps most notably emphasized that model uncertainty causes monetary policy to be an exercise in risk management in this framework policymakers seek to learn about the changing economy even while they adopt policies that he...
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