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on pdf 21 pages the increase in federal spending from less than five percent of gdp to near 20 percent was not an accident nor was it a conspiracy liberal or otherwise it was economic policy designed to boost economic performance and to create both jobs and profits through free market processes golly posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday january 24 2015 comparative economic policy outcomes tom hickey links to russia capital outflow is actually companies reducing debt at russia insider due to sanctions instead of rolling over their debt like everyone else does russian companies are forced to repay it also means that unlike everyone else they re going to have very little debt and from the article central bank of russia released full year 2014 capital outflows figures prompting cheerful chatter from the us officials and academics gleefully loading the demise of the russian economy in simple terms usd 118 billion or 78 percent of the catastrophic capital flight out of russia in 2014 was down due to debt redemptions in banking and corporate sectors not investors fleeing or depositors taking a run but partially forced debt repayments m ost of the capital flight that western analysts decry goes to improve russian balance sheets and reduce russian external debt that can t be too bad right not too bad i don t know why hey external debt can be a problem sure any debt can be a problem if there s too much of it but i don t know why the emphasis is always on external debt or government debt and never on private debt never on the big one tom s link caught my eye just the other day i made a prediction the first of the great powers to reduce private debt will be the world s next hegemon could it be russia don t laugh i know you want to laugh it s a natural response given the cheerful chatter and the gleeful gloating we ve been exposed to from the idiots in our idiot boxes just remember it remember you want to laugh at the thought that russia could be the world s next hegemon see where china is today remember where china was when nixon decided to be friends it would be like taking candy from a baby doing business with china not any more russia i don t know i don t make predictions i never make predictions that was a fluke that one anyway it wasn t so much a prediction as a way to present a concept maybe the russian economy will get bogged down in its own internal debt as we have as japan did as china yet may it s a very common fate maybe russia will be crushed by debt maybe they won t you want to know who will be the hegemon i want you to know that it depends on comparative policy outcomes and debt minimization the first to reduce private debt becomes the first that is ready for vigorous growth posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments friday january 23 2015 go billy bill mitchell 6 the fire sector is the the most commonly cited source of wealth for billionaires on this list in other words the wealth has been predominantly accumulated through non productive activities i like that bold terminology posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday january 22 2015 disputations from discourse on method at adelaide edu i have never observed that any truth before unknown has been brought to light by the disputations that are practised in the schools for while each strives for the victory each is much more occupied in making the best of mere verisimilitude than in weighing the reasons on both sides of the question verisimilitude the appearance of being true or real posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday january 21 2015 ebooks adelaide i recently found ebooks at adelaide edu turned up in a google search https ebooks adelaide edu au nicely formatted a pleasure to have on the screen recommended posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday january 20 2015 methods versus premisses syll says the university of greenwich shows the way he quotes sara gorgoni from the rethinking economics blog but syll omitted gorgoni s opening the 24th of november was an important day for the economists at the university of greenwich when four programmes were successfully reviewed the revised programmes were commended for the enthusiasm and development of new material by the teaching team showing a flexible and responsive approach to the current environment as well as taking a leading role in the sector that is they were praised for leading changes in the way economics is taught they were praised for changing the way economics is taught is that the key do you think was that maynard s focus in the general theory there s nothing wrong with what economists teach it s just the way that they teach it i don t think so no it goes much deeper as gorgoni writes students themselves have recognised that the tools and theories they learn don t enable them to make sense of the world they live in maynard dealt with difficult questions of theory not how questions were asked but what questions and what was wrong with the answers what was wrong he said was not the superstructure but the premisses change enough premisses and the whole structure falls like jenga keynes wrote moreover the characteristics of the special case assumed by the classical theory happen not to be those of the economic society in which we actually live with the result that its teaching is misleading and disastrous if we attempt to apply it to the facts of experience sounds like what gorgoni s students are saying posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday january 19 2015 human nature from duke today a new study from duke university finds that people will evaluate scientific evidence based on whether they view its policy implications as politically desirable the goal was to test in a scientifically controlled manner the question does the desirability of a solution affect beliefs in the existence of the associated problem in other words does what we call solution aversion exist campbell said we found the answer is yes posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments sunday january 18 2015 toward clarity you will notice that i am using strong language i am prepared to admit right away that i may be dead wrong in my judgements but there is no point in pussyfooting bluntness may lead to an interesting discussion robert solow posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday january 17 2015 from the standup economist at philip greenspun s weblog posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday january 16 2015 steve keen exactly right steve keen a private debt crisis can t be solved simply by increasing public debt if deleveraging is to really occur and allow a real private sector revival then private debt has to be substantially reduced by deliberate government policy a lot of people who should readily accept keen s view get tangled up instead in what they think keynes would do they want to do the keynesian thing they want to increase government spending they think that s solution enough they forget that we have been relying on the keynesian solution since the great depression we did increase government spending and it worked it kept us going far past the point when the burden of private debt should have brought the economy crashing down unfortunately this means that the burden of private debt today is far beyond anything that could be called sustainable what is necessary is to restore balance between public and private debt the solution this time around is not further increase in government debt but a reduction of private debt but we are a nation that uses credit for growth and we have created advanced institutions and advanced technologies that further the growth of credit what this means is that every time the government boosts spending by a dollar we boost private credit use and private debt by more than a dollar or we did until it created the crisis graph 1 change in private debt per dollar of change in federal debt by sector until about 2008 households and nonfinancial corporate business and financial business each of them tended to create more than a dollar of new debt for each new dollar of federal debt total up those private components and it is even easier to see private debt growing faster than federal debt since the crisis private debt has been growing more slowly than federal debt perhaps this suggests that we don t need deliberate government policy to substantially reduce private sector debt but if that solution works if increased public spending and debt works if it restores the health of our economy then private debt will grow faster again in a growing economy we use lots of credit private debt will grow faster than federal debt monetary imbalance will grow worse again and the problem will not have been solved to solve the problem we have to prevent the future expansion of private debt we can do that easily by setting up incentives that accelerate the repayment of private debt and by using those incentives as a way to fight inflation instead of always and everywhere relying on the mind numbingly stupid policy of raising interest rates but that is a problem for the future that is a problem for a time after our economy has been restored to health meanwhile the quickest way to restore our economy is to set up those incentives today to reduce private debt today to reduce financial cost today to encourage the growth of the non financial economy today think of it as a deliberate government policy yes certainly policy must provide more money so the economy can function that s where federal spending comes in but maybe and this is something to think about maybe there is enough federal debt already if we reduce the growth of private debt we must reduce private debt because it creates a financial cost that undermines profit income and aggregate demand we must provide an alternative money one that does not carry such cost let the federal government spend if need be and see to it that the federal reserve buys up enough federal debt to push up the amount of low cost money in our economy to bring down the ratio of costly money or credit in use or debt relative to money that does not cost interest and need not be repaid this is the key ratio high cost money relative to low cost money it determines whether times are good or hard it determines the state of economic health and vigor it determines whether we survive as a nation and as a civilization posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments thursday january 15 2015 a prediction the first of the great powers to reduce private debt will be the world s next hegemon posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 24 comments wednesday january 14 2015 yes and you find the same problem in private debt oilfield trash alerts us to steve keen s outlook 2015 pdf 20 pages lots of graphs from the pdf figure 1 private debt bubbles everywhere want evidence that debt is the problem note that private debt in japan peaks 20 years before private debt in europe china australia and the united states look a lot of people say no debt s not the problem the problem is inequality here s the thing we have to stop saying no i want you to stop saying no debt s not the problem i want you to start saying yes and you find the same problem in inequality it s the same problem inequality is how it shows up among people debt is how it shows up in economic data it s not two different problems we don t need to fight about that if you want to think of inequality as the problem and think of debt as evidence of the inequality problem that s fine with me but we have to stop saying no we have to start agreeing with each other otherwise the people who disagree with both of us will win the day posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments tuesday january 13 2015 nutting could be finer rex nutting the income of the top 0 01 of earners the top 1 in 10 000 has increased at a 6 annual rate since 1979 compared with a 1 increase for the bottom 90 the top 0 01 of earners are overwhelmingly corporate managers top executives in finance corporate lawyers and investors this group makes an average of about 16 million a year or about 300 000 per week this imbalance between the ultra rich and everyone else would be fine if it were fair if winners were really rewarded for excellence and losers really lost but that s not the way business works ceo pay isn t based on excellence but on rent seeking behavior that increases their pay far above what is economically justified no more specifically this imbalance between the ultra rich and everyone else would be fine if it were fair if winners were really rewarded for excellence and losers really lost no the economy is a game of wealth accumulation one of the forms of wealth that we accumulate is money money is a unique form of wealth because it is the one used in exchange for other forms of wealth when you receive your paycheck for example and when you spend it money is the one form of wealth that facilitates the accumulation of all forms of wealth so when money s been all accumulated the economy can no longer function even if wealth accumulation was fair the economy couldn t function even if things were perfectly equal if we all had accumulated equal amounts of everything and had equal wants remaining ridiculous as the notion is the economy could not function money needs to circulate to facilitate transaction when too much of the transaction medium has been accumulated saved and withdrawn from circulation the economy cannot function in that ridiculously equal world we would all be sitting on our wealth at zero percent bemoaning the economic decline the kind of wealth and income imbalance rex nutting is talking about is not fine it puts the economy in failure mode it makes things go bad it makes capitalism evolve to some other more authoritarian form it s not fine at all posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments monday january 12 2015 a word from john kenneth galbraith from a short history of financial euphoria the world of finance hails the invention of the wheel over and over again often in a slightly more unstable version all financial innovation involves in one form or another the creation of debt secured in greater or lesser adequacy by real assets this was true in one of the earliest seeming marvels when banks discovered that they could print bank notes and issue them to borrowers in a volume in excess of the hard money deposits in the banks strong rooms the depositors could be counted upon it was believed or hoped not to come all at once for their money there was no seeming limit to the debt that could thus be leveraged on a given volume of hard cash a wonderful thing the limit became apparent however when some alarming news perhaps of the extent of the leverage itself caused too many of the original depositors to want their money at the same time all subsequent financial innovation has involved similar debt creation leveraged against more limited assets with only modifications in the earlier design all crises ha...
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