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update 16 september 2014 my conclusion bullard got his wealth shock view from a fluke in the h p calculation is confirmed in the july 2012 article blog review hp filters and business cycles by jérémie cohen setton and yury yatsynovich james bullard pointed to these hodrick prescott estimates together with the fact that we don t see deflationary pressures see our review here as evidence that advanced economies are operating near potential if not above tim duy points that st louis federal reserve president james bullard likes to rely on this technique to support his claim that the us economy is operating near potential but there is an end point problem with the hp calculation luís morais sarmento economist at banco de portugal explains that the end point problem results from the fact that the series smoothed by the hp filter tend to be close to the observed data at the beginning and at the end of the estimation period and this tim duy points that if you don t deal with the endpoint problem you get that actual output is above the hp trend yeah i noticed this end point problem too see how to change the past posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments saturday march 29 2014 technology productivity growth and cost technological advance drives productivity if cost permits but cannot move productivity if cost prevents it cost also allows or disallows the growth of output so it looks like there is a relation between productivity and output in truth the connection is not direct but runs through cost posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday march 28 2014 productivity growth and cost in the year 2000 alan greenspan looked to improved productivity as the reason the economy was so good in the last few years it has become increasingly clear that this business cycle differs in a very profound way from the many other cycles that have characterized post world war ii america not only has the expansion achieved record length but it has done so with economic growth far stronger than expected most remarkably inflation has remained largely subdued in the face of labor markets tighter than any we have experienced in a generation a key factor behind this extremely favorable performance has been the resurgence in productivity growth stands to reason if we produce more per hour than we used to and nothing else changes then output will go up yet only a couple years later greenspan was puzzled productivity growth was impressively good but economic growth was not the increase in nonfarm business output per hour over the past year will almost surely be reported as one of the largest advances if not the largest posted over the past thirty years we at the federal reserve along with our colleagues in government and the private sector are struggling to account for so strong a surge we would not be particularly puzzled if the increases in output per hour were occurring during a period of very rapid economic growth such as has often attended recoveries from steep recessions but during the past year we averaged only modest economic growth evidently productivity growth is not the whole story when it comes to economic growth in the latter speech greenspan said from an average annual rate of 1 3 4 percent in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century it jumped to a 3 3 4 percent rate in the decade following world war i subsequently productivity growth returned to a 1 3 4 percent pace then for the quarter century following world war ii productivity growth rose to an average rate of 2 3 4 percent before subsiding to a pace of 1 1 2 percent annually from the mid 1970s to the mid 1990s and then looking back over the latter 1990s from his 2002 perspective over the past seven years output per hour has been growing at an annual rate of more than 2 1 2 percent on average compared with a rate of roughly 1 1 2 percent during the preceding two decades it seems that good productivity and a good economy go together productivity was good in the roaring 20s and in the golden age following world war two and again in the boom years of the latter 1990s sure productivity drives economic growth but that isn t the whole story economic growth also drives productivity apparently the state of the economy affects our ability to use technological advance to improve productivity the great depression for example was a time when improved technology failed to feed into productivity and growth in a footnote greenspan says in contrast to the boom in productivity after world war i which many economists associate with a few key innovations analysts usually ascribe the post world war ii boom to innovations in many sectors reflecting the diffusion through the private economy of a new technologies that appeared in the 1930s but were not fully implemented during the depression and b a gradual application to civilian activities of military related innovations new technologies that appeared in the 1930s but were not fully implemented during the depression so it seems that two things are true 1 improved productivity leads to an improved economy and 2 a declining economy leads to declining productivity how can this be if productivity is pushing the economy upward how can the economy be pushing productivity down obviously there is more to the story if productivity pushing the economy upward meets resistance it is likely that something else is pushing the economy down offsetting or undermining the effects of improved productivity greenspan says lower costs are associated with improved productivity on a consolidated basis for the corporate sector as a whole lowered costs are generally associated with increased output per hour i say that higher costs are associated with declining productivity excessive financial cost pushes our economy down it pushes productivity down posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments labels cost and productivity thursday march 27 2014 jimmy carter on the colbert report the bible says you don t charge interest to a poor person you probably knew that at this site i found a couple good quotes this deuteronomy 23 19 20 esv you shall not charge interest on loans to your brother interest on money interest on food interest on anything that is lent for interest you may charge a foreigner interest but you may not charge your brother interest that s pretty direct and this one proverbs 28 8 esv whoever multiplies his wealth by interest and profit gathers it for him who is generous to the poor which sounds like moral justification for progressive taxation posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday march 26 2014 the relation between productivity and growth from why have the dynamics of labor productivity changed pdf 26 pages by willem van zandweghe an economist at the kansas city fed in recent years the u s economy has undergone a change in the behavior of productivity over the business cycle until the mid 1980s productivity growth rose and fell with output growth but since then the relationship between these two variables has weakened and they have even moved in different directions thought i d take a look at that here are percent change from year ago patterns for inflation adjusted gdp and total factor productivity at constant prices graph 1 growth rates of rgdp blue and tfp not blue wait a minute rgdp is quarterly tfp is annual that makes the blue line more jiggy it throws off the comparison i can t make tfp quarterly but i can show rgdp as annual values graph 2 annual to annual growth rates rgdp blue and tfp wow that s better the similarity really stands out now but i don t know about what willem van zandweghe said it s pretty easy to see productivity growth rising and falling with output growth it s not so easy to see a change in that pattern since the mid 1980s hey i know what to do subtract from series a the average value of series a and then divide by the standard deviation for series a and then multiply by the standard deviation for series b and then add the average value of series b i used openoffice calc on data from 1951 thru 2011 to figure the average and standard deviation values then i retrieved graph 2 and plugged in the numbers not bad i got a couple mismatched parentheses errors along the way but fred and i survived the ordeal here s the christensen fitted comparison graph graph 3 the blue line rgdp christensen fitted to the not quite red tfp line the two lines are a close match at a glance they move up and down together and i don t see any movement in different directions since the mid 1980s so i don t know what willem van zandweghe was talking about okay next i subtracted the total factor productivity number from the fitted rgdp just by inspection i don t see any obvious errors in it i think the new fred is coming around as for the graph itself graph 4 christensen fitted rgdp less tfp looks like rgdp growth is declining relative to total factor productivity maybe that s the different directions thing van zandweghe wrote about what the last graph shows is that even when productivity is good gdp growth is not as good as it used to be even when productivity is good gdp growth is not as good as it used to be related posts august 11 2013 the theoretical case behind ngdpt is quite weak august 12 2013 dividing these series each by its own standard deviation will similarize the up and downs of the different series august 13 2013 he sees the size and the location of the up and down pattern as separate from the pattern itself august 14 2013 the first step of christensen s calculation august 31 2013 some nifty stuff with averages and standard deviations to fit one line to another on a graph september 1 2013 christensen s market indicator has already been used as proof and disproof and i m still just checking the arithmetic september 2 2013 lars s numbers are ridiculously large and obviously in error march 18 2014 fred must use a calculation very much like this to scale and shift the right axis numbers when two axes are used on a graph posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 16 comments tuesday march 25 2014 the boom of the 1990s nber presents u s monetary policy during the 1990s matt nesvisky s review of greg mankiw s review of well of u s monetary policy in the 1990s mankiw notes the low volatility of inflation growth and joblessness then too large supply shocks were uncommon in the 1990s and good shocks in fact were more common than bad all told mankiw sees in the 1990s a combination of good policy and good luck here s the piece of nesvisky s article that that gets my full attention also fortuitous was the behavior of the stock market for not only were returns high but volatility was low making the 1990s essentially the best time ever to be investing in wall street little evidence suggests the booming market played a large independent role in monetary policy yet significantly the bull market of the period preceded the acceleration of the productivity rate by several years and the market can be a driving force of the business cycle the bull market preceded the acceleration of the productivity rate by several years i went right away to fred it seems to be okay when calculations of series data are not involved for a look at dow jones and s p rate of change rates graph 1 stock market index growth rates the thin vertical line between 1990 and 2000 is not a recession but a date selector related to the date and market index values just at the start of the large increase which to me looks like the start of the bull market of the 1990s that large increase occurs in 1995 but that s not several years before the acceleration of the productivity rate what was mankiw thinking dean baker and john schmitt describe a nine year 1996 2004 boom in productivity bill c at twenty cent paradigms presents his own estimate and that of the economic report of the president both show the boom beginning in 1996 in a 2002 paper robert j gordon refers to the 1995 2000 productivity growth revival these sources all place the start of the productivity boom in 1995 or 96 the same year or the year immediately following the 1995 date i have identified as the start of the 1990s bull market in contrast to mankiw s several years perhaps i have the bull market date wrong no the san fransisco fed s dr econ february 2001 offers this graph showing the bullish increase beginning in the fifth year after 1990 that is in 1995 graph 2 the bull market of the 1990s red begins in1995 according to matt nesvisky greg mankiw places the start of the bull market several years before the start of the productivity boom according to me greg mankiw is not correct but if you re looking for something that preceded the acceleration of the productivity rate by several years i ve got a contender for you it s my latest version of the debt per dollar ratio base to debt this time i first presented it on 23 march in relation to potential gdp i offer it again now in contrast the the bull market story of greg mankiw graph 3 base money relative to total debt red and stock market measures this graph is similar to graph 1 i had to recreate it once due to my own lack of foresight and a second time because fred destroyed the graph after i tried to save it as a pdf but i have the same three market series as before percent change from year ago left axis and i ve added the bolder red line ambsl base money divided by tcmdo debt with the percent change from year ago transformation on graph 3 you can see a tall wide increase in base relative to total debt it begins around 1990 and lasts into the mid 1990s this burst of money growth in a time of reduced debt growth does in fact occur several years before the start of the stock market and productivity booms of the 1990s in fact the lines cross in the mid 1990s the red base to debt line falling just as the market indices get a good uptrend going here s the link but fred can t get the dates right posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments monday march 24 2014 zoho debt growth and inflation dunno what i searched for but it led me to an old 2012 joe weisenthal post with a really good name there s only one way to fix the deficit and actually it s totally painless after some painful preliminaries weisenthal says the primary driver of deficits is a lack of growth i agree weisenthal s post is too long and shows too many graphs as if he thinks his staying power is enough to convince the reader ha but he does get around to saying this sadly achieving growth is not trivial so although it s the only meaningful solution to the deficit there isn t agreement on the magic answer to get there the magic answer of course is to reduce private sector debt but weisenthal insists on writing about the federal debt the same search led me to an old again 2012 fictional reserve barking post evsey domar s on deficits and debt a survival guide for making sense of today s economic challenges circuit writes specifically in his paper domar demonstrated that in the long run the ratio of debt to gdp will g...
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