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Text of the page (random words):
report of the president both show the boom beginning in 1996 in a 2002 paper robert j gordon refers to the 1995 2000 productivity growth revival these sources all place the start of the productivity boom in 1995 or 96 the same year or the year immediately following the 1995 date i have identified as the start of the 1990s bull market in contrast to mankiw s several years perhaps i have the bull market date wrong no the san fransisco fed s dr econ february 2001 offers this graph showing the bullish increase beginning in the fifth year after 1990 that is in 1995 graph 2 the bull market of the 1990s red begins in1995 according to matt nesvisky greg mankiw places the start of the bull market several years before the start of the productivity boom according to me greg mankiw is not correct but if you re looking for something that preceded the acceleration of the productivity rate by several years i ve got a contender for you it s my latest version of the debt per dollar ratio base to debt this time i first presented it on 23 march in relation to potential gdp i offer it again now in contrast the the bull market story of greg mankiw graph 3 base money relative to total debt red and stock market measures this graph is similar to graph 1 i had to recreate it once due to my own lack of foresight and a second time because fred destroyed the graph after i tried to save it as a pdf but i have the same three market series as before percent change from year ago left axis and i ve added the bolder red line ambsl base money divided by tcmdo debt with the percent change from year ago transformation on graph 3 you can see a tall wide increase in base relative to total debt it begins around 1990 and lasts into the mid 1990s this burst of money growth in a time of reduced debt growth does in fact occur several years before the start of the stock market and productivity booms of the 1990s in fact the lines cross in the mid 1990s the red base to debt line falling just as the market indices get a good uptrend going here s the link but fred can t get the dates right posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments monday march 24 2014 zoho debt growth and inflation dunno what i searched for but it led me to an old 2012 joe weisenthal post with a really good name there s only one way to fix the deficit and actually it s totally painless after some painful preliminaries weisenthal says the primary driver of deficits is a lack of growth i agree weisenthal s post is too long and shows too many graphs as if he thinks his staying power is enough to convince the reader ha but he does get around to saying this sadly achieving growth is not trivial so although it s the only meaningful solution to the deficit there isn t agreement on the magic answer to get there the magic answer of course is to reduce private sector debt but weisenthal insists on writing about the federal debt the same search led me to an old again 2012 fictional reserve barking post evsey domar s on deficits and debt a survival guide for making sense of today s economic challenges circuit writes specifically in his paper domar demonstrated that in the long run the ratio of debt to gdp will gradually approach the ratio of the fraction of gdp borrowed each year to the rate of growth of gdp so for instance the us federal government borrowed approximately 7 percent of gdp in 2012 if the borrowing continued at the same rate and the gdp in money terms grows at 2 percent per year the ratio of debt to gdp will approach 3 5 with a 3 percent growth it will be 2 3 thus domar showed that less attention should be devoted to the problem of the debt and more to finding ways of achieving a growing national income 1945 415 i totally agree with the focus on growing national income and it ties in nicely with weisenthal s focus on growth but it s circuit s first paragraph that gets my attention the long run the ratio of debt to gdp borrowing 7 of gdp annually and 2 gdp growth these are things i can do in a spreadsheet i can test to see whether the ratio of debt to gdp approaches 3 5 with 7 deficits and 2 growth and approaches 2 3 with growth at 3 like circuit says running a test like that is not a mathematical proof but it helps make the results real for me and that s worth a lot in the zoho spreadsheet below you can enter numbers in the yellow cells and watch the graph change after the thing recalculates if you mess up the sheet you can fix it by refreshing the page the default settings match circuit s example the 7 in yellow cell a2 represents federal deficits each year equal to 7 percent of gdp and the 2 in yellow cell a3 represents gdp growth of 2 percent per year circuit says in money terms not sure what he means by that i think he means nominal but based on circuit s presentation i think domar must have been talking about real not inflating growth inflation would change the value of the long run ratio as weisenthal says nominal growth is all you need to reduce our debt burdens if real growth is 2 and inflation is another 2 nominal gdp growth is 4 existing debt shrinks faster relative to gdp if gdp is inflating so i added a third yellow cell cell a4 to hold the rate of inflation the default value is zero no inflation therefore the red line that represents eroded debt is hidden by the blue line which does not consider inflation click cell a4 type the number 2 for 2 inflation and press the enter key to see the erosion of debt that weisenthal is talking about try higher gdp growth rates also to see how better growth reduces the debt gdp ratio if it looks like the blue line didn t move much it may be because the numbers changed on the vertical axis give the graph a moment to refresh after you make a change check me on the eroded debt calculation posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments sunday march 23 2014 ambsl tcmdo and gdppot graph 1 growth rates potential gdp red and base money as a percent of total debt the blue line is generally well below zero for most of the years shown that is the growth of base money was consistently slower than the growth of total public and private debt the red line generally trends downward in other words the potential in potential output diminishes over time the one remarkable large and sustained actual increase in base relative to debt occurs on the blue line between 1989 and 1996 in the midst of that increase potential output turns and trends upward for a decade this is a significant change in the pattern of decline shown by potential output the only other significant change in the decline of potential output is the uptrend that occurs between 1955 and 1967 remarkably this trend corresponds even more clearly to an uptrend in the base to debt ratio conditions were different in the 1990s and the 1950s the changes in the blue line look different on the graph but both periods show uptrend in the base debt ratio and both show uptrend in potential output if you think we need better growth look at money and total debt posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday march 22 2014 it works about as well as everything else the fed does i think the new fred goes astray as soon as you get an error while entering the formula unfortunately if you want to type a b you have to type the b really fast otherwise in the fraction of a second between typing the and the b fred will give you an error that s not something new the old fred was a pain in the ass that way too but with the new fred after you get the error message everything falls apart i managed to add data series for total debt and the federal portion and the state and local government portion all without error the graph all the while showed the first series correctly then by typing b really fast taking time to position my fingers and typing c really fast i got the formula to be a b c without getting an error message and the graph actually showed something that matched the formula i was trying to duplicate the u s debt portion of steve keen s change in private debt graph that i showed yesterday change in private debt as a percent of gdp so next i added gdp as series d fred identifies the series by letter the first one you select is a the next is b and like that but now i had to change the formula to read a b c d here s where i made my big mistake i used the backspace to delete the formula and before i could type the fred gave me an error message it was all downhill from there i ignored the error message and entered the correct formula amazingly the graph looked okay but keen s graph shows change in debt relative to gdp so i went back to the a b and c data my three debt measures and changed the units from billions of dollars to change billions of dollars i just changed the three debt series not the gdp series but when i looked back at the graph it had figured change billions of dollars for all four series including gdp the graph was all spikey and obviously not like keen s graph from there things only got worse i removed the d from the formula and clicked apply the graph changed correctly then i added d to the formula and clicked apply again but the graph didn t change even though the formula shows a b c d the graph and the graph borders show only a b c what else did i do oh yeah i clicked max up at the top above the graph to set the date range and fred set the date range all right it set the start date equal to the end date but the graph didn t change but hey that was on the 20th maybe it s all fixed by now posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments friday march 21 2014 getting it i saw one of those build a story things on the internet the other day you know read what everyone else has written and add a sentence to build the tale i think stories get told like that on serious blogs too economic and political blogs it s like building a meem i m spelling it meem from now on by the way you know i don t like those stories not when it comes to politics and the economy these things affect people s lives we need something better than just good stories we need the stories to be right you got this from me i got it from tom hickey tom got it from mark buchanan a picture makes it clear buchanan says the recession is over he presents a graph showing that the level of private debt an indicator of how much businesses and individuals are borrowing is now going up again after a long decrease during the recent crisis it s a little funny buchanan thinks the level of private debt is an indicator of how much businesses and individuals are borrowing i think the level of private debt is a measure of how much we have borrowed in total and not repaid it s the changes in that level that show whether people are borrowing it s like present tense versus past tense anyway buchanan got it from steve keen figure 1 deleveraging is over for the time being referring to that graph keen writes the period of private sector deleveraging that caused the crisis appears to be over debt is now not merely growing but growing faster than gdp looks right to me keen s post is dated 10 march 2014 in a post dated 9 july 2013 nick rowe wrote if you look at business cycles this way as a trade cycle in which the volume of trade rises in booms and falls in recessions it is totally unsurprising that the volume of borrowing and lending should also rise in booms and fall in recessions what would be surprising and in need of explanation would be if trade in ious did not follow the same cyclical pattern as trade in other goods neil irwin tells me that trade in ious is increasing in the us ht mark thoma he s right that it s good news nick rowe got it from marc thoma marc thoma got it from neil irwin okay let s put a date on the taper from the financial times lexicon taper talk started in june 2013 when speculation increased that the fed would start on a tapered end to qe in 2014 the increase in bond yields had already inflicted heavy losses on bond investors so june a month before rowe and thoma and irwin i think i know where irwin got it irwin got it from the fed but where d the fed get it hmmm posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday march 20 2014 they updated potential gdp last month real potential gross domestic product gdppot is now given in 2009 dollars before the february 4 2014 revision it was given in 2005 dollars a lot of other series including real gross domestic product gdpc1 changed to 2009 dollars back in july of last year potential gdp has finally caught up so now real gdp and potential gdp are directly comparable at fred again graph 1 real blue and potential red gdp in 2009 dollars here s how the two series looked using the older data expressed in 2005 dollars graph 2 real blue and potential red gdp in 2005 dollars not a lot of difference the output gap there after 2008 closes a little more with the newer data but not as much as i expected in a previous post why the comprehensive revision that changed real gdp after the 2013 06 26 release didn t only change the base year from 2005 to 2009 it also increased the output numbers it made real gdp bigger than it was before nice trick huh so then potential gdp also had to be revised upward to match the change in real gdp i didn t account for this change in potential gdp so the output gap doesn t close as much as i said it would in that earlier post in order to compare the two versions of the output gap i subtracted real gdp from potential gdp using the 2005 dollar data and again using the 2009 dollar data and put the results together on a new graph over the full period the two difference lines run quite close together as you might expect so i zoomed in on a detail just the years since 2007 graph 3 the output gap using old blue and new red data the main thing you can see on this graph is that since 2009 the output gap gets smaller faster for the new red data than for the older blue numbers that is what you have to expect given cbo policy that reduces any output gap to zero in ten years cbo a summary of alternative methods for estimating potential gdp pdf the surprising thing you can see on the graph is that since 2007 or before the new numbers show a bigger output gap than the old numbers not a lot bigger but bigger that s surprising because jim bullard s argument was that potential output was over estimated in the 2000s bullard s argument was that potential output was lower than people thought that gdp was above potential and that the shocking fall in real gdp was really just a correction now it seems they get to have it both ways the output gap was bigger than people thought but it s closing faster anyway posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments wednesday march 19 2014 ƛ yesterday i took the growth rate of employment scaled it to the same amplitude as the growth rate of household debt and centered the one line on the other this process stripped away differences between the two lines other than differences of pattern that permitted me to compare the patterns of the two datasets so then i su...
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