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o the exponential growth curve the graphs do not show that debt growth was slowing what they show is that debt growth had already become unsustainable by 1990 convergence set the dates aside set the explanations aside look at the point of agreement in remarks yesterday one finds the following from jazzbumpa what is unmistakable is that growth has slowed dramatically since the 1982 ish peak this is the inevitable failure of exponential growth from clonal in the graph you show on the business debt the trend is definitely not exponential it is growing but not exponentially the divergence is too great since 2000 from liminal hack the exponential prior to 2000 is still remarkable though the post 2000 behavior is much more about mature economies reaching peak debt and then hunting for some kind of equilibrium and from my conclusion above this is a downtrend relative to the exponential growth curve the graphs do not show that debt growth was slowing what they show is that debt growth had already become unsustainable by 1990 maybe since 1982 maybe since 1990 maybe since 2000 but without doubt the exponential growth of debt could not continue it had to fail economic policy built on the growth of debt was doomed from the start posted by the arthurian at 8 00 am 4 comments f g h yesterday we looked at nonfarm corporate business debt graph 1 nonfarm corporate business debt today we look at other debt financial debt blue government debt red and household debt green graph 2 financial government and household debt to be clear government debt here refers to federal government debt and excludes internally held government debt because tcmdo excludes it first none of these three debt series has flat spots at recessions since 1990 on the other hand all three of them show a major change at the time of the 2008 recession in fact the three debt trends since the wilt began look as though they are converging to a common point that s just bizarre but it might be interesting to look at every six months or so in the meanwhile a look at these three components of debt along with their exponential trend curves financial debt is the fastest growing with the steepest exponential but the actual numbers fall behind the calculated curve some years before the peak in yellow household debt shows the second fastest growth on this graph and until the wilt began the actual debt numbers kept up with the exponential trend in last place debt of the federal government government debt growth was significantly ahead of its exponential trend there for a while but curved back down below the trend during the macroeconomic miracle then ran below trend until the crisis posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday september 29 2011 and it took a while i did the exponential trend see previous post so i could compare the actual path of debt to the exponential path but it took me a while to figure out how to use the trend formula generated by openoffice the problem was what to use for the x values it s not date formatted numbers it s not year values four digit nor two it s simple the first x value is number one the next is number two and like that here is the result graph 1 variance from the exponential trend the path varies as much as 40 from the perfect trend but that s not what interests me interesting i think is that there are three general trends within the variance first off this graph shows actual debt varying from the exponential curve so below the zero level means debt is growing more slowly than we might have predicted above the zero level means debt is growing faster than we might have predicted a downtrend means debt growth is slowing relative to the prediction and an uptrend means debt growth is increasing relative to the prediction second the debt we re evaluating here is domestic nonfinancial corporate nonfarm business debt outstanding now the trends business debt tended to slow until about 1964 then it changed direction from 1974 to 1992 give or take debt growth was above trend but after 1988 debt growth tended to slow relative to its exponential trend the google docs spreadsheet posted by the arthurian at 12 00 pm 3 comments but who s counting the third graph from my four o clock repeated here as graph 1 graph 1 corporate debt 1949 2011 quarterly data from fred fed into openoffice plus an exponential trend graph 2 same debt with an exponential trend line with an r squared greater than 0 9899 for the record posted by the arthurian at 8 00 am 3 comments suddenly remembered i suddenly remembered noah writing this the recessions of the early 1980s were very short and v shaped despite the extremely low rate of tfp growth at the time by contrast the early 2000s recession though shallow was much longer and u shaped despite the recovery in tfp growth tfp being total factor productivity which doesn t matter at the moment noah s evidence was this graph graph 1 apparently we can be quite literal here and look at the white space under the blue data line at the peaks the tallest spike on the graph comes at the 1982 recession and that spike is very narrow indeed compared to the two lesser spikes that follow it those lesser spikes occur at the 1990 recession and the 2001 recession thus not only the early 2000s recession but recessions since 1990 have been much longer and u shaped 1990 and 2001 and 2008 dunno where i read that krugman or somebody pointed it out before however graph 2 by the time the civilian unemployment rate gets back down to the natural rate of unemployment all the recessions since 1974 have spikes that widen out quite a bit but let s set this objection aside for now let s assume the noah krugman arts bad memory analysis is correct let s assume it s true that recessions since 1990 have been longer and u shaped and different than recessions before 1990 i suddenly remembered noah writing that because i saw this graph 3 corporate debt 1949 2011 flat spots in business debt following the 1990 recession the 2001 recession and the 2008 recession flat spots like that don t show up after earlier recessions even in close up graph 4 corporate debt 1949 1993 the slightest wiggles appear after the 1974 1980 and 1982 recessions bare hints of what was to come y know i m thinkin graph 3 with the flat spots after the last three recessions this is better evidence than noah s graph for the claim that recovery no longer follows quickly on the heels of recession posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments labels debt and inflation wednesday september 28 2011 and i m gonna keep saying it until you start to think there might be something to it this one again graph 1 after interest rates peaked around 1980 see yesterday s graphs 2 and 3 net interest flattened as a percent of gross domestic income after a few years net interest dropped significantly then it flattened again though it would not be right to call it stable i want to look at the drop zoom in once graph 2 and it appears that the drop begins around 1990 and ends around 1996 zoom in again graph 3 and those dates are pretty well confirmed 1989 to 1996 maybe the drop doesn t look so significant stretched out like this but it is the same drop and the same significance as before suppose we look at tcmdo total credit market debt owed for the same period it goes up of course graph 4 shows how much it went up as a percent change from the year before graph 4 the growth of debt was relatively low in the 1989 1996 years the same years that net interest dropped so fast graph 4 looks at growth of accumulating debt increases of debt but what is an increase in debt it is more credit use the record of more credit use when i borrow a dollar my debt increases when i borrow a dollar it s likely because i plan to spend it spending we can only spend money we borrowed or money we didn t borrow two kinds of money how much of each there is in the economy is a big deal graph 5 graph 5 adds money to picture 4 m1 money annual data percent change from previous year shown in red from 1989 to 1996 there is a good big bump in the growth of money we have looked at this before when the quantity of money rises faster than the accumulation of debt the factor cost of money is reduced this is the reason we saw a significant drop in net interest relative to gdi in graph 1 above oh and for the record the two data series shown in graph 5 are the two components of my debt per dollar ratio it looks like this graph 6 for the 1986 2000 period it looks like this graph 7 that big drop in the ratio was created by faster growth of money and slower growth of debt that big drop started around 1990 and ending around 1994 immediately after that big drop we had an economic boom this is no coincidence the reduced factor cost of money was the necessary precondition for growth this is not the first such drop that i know of the first occurred after the onset of the great depression it occurred during the years of the fdr presidency immediately after that big drop we had an economic boom that lasted two decades or more that was no coincidence either posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments tuesday september 27 2011 nobody looks at the macro from yesterday this one graph 1 since 1992 the trend is horizontal here are four different interest rates all quite similar graph 2 here from graph 2 is fred s 3 month treasury bill secondary market rate very similar to the federal funds rate but it goes back to the 1930s together with net interest from graph 1 both series use annual numbers graph 3 why does interest cost rise more slowly than interest rate up to the peak dunno maybe the question is irrelevant it s just a graph but what i would like to say what i can t argue yet is net interest income understates interest cost graph 4 with each series on its own vertical axis interest cost does not rise more slowly than the interest rate but it does fall more slowly why does interest cost trend horizontal rather than falling with interest rates this i know the answer to as time goes by more and more of our spending makes use of credit more and more credit use is embedded in the average transaction as time goes by if interest rates fall by half while embedded credit use doubles there is no decline of interest cost but nobody thinks of it that way i ve been looking a little at a speech by ben bernanke from june 15 2007 the financial accelerator and the credit channel in the conclusion of the speech bernanke says i have taken you on a whirlwind tour of several decades of research on how variations in the financial condition of borrowers whether arising from changes in monetary policy or from other forces can affect short term economic dynamics the critical idea is that the cost of funds to borrowers depends inversely on their creditworthiness as measured by indicators such as net worth and liquidity the cost of funds to borrowers depends inversely on their creditworthiness everybody looks at the individual borrower everybody looks at the micro even ben bernanke even when his topic is macro nobody looks at the reliance on credit overall in the economy nobody looks at the macro posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 9 comments monday september 26 2011 jackpot i ve run across gross domestic income once or twice before gdi is a different way of accounting gdp a measure of the income side i thought it might be useful as a way to look at factor costs land labor and capital costs as adam smith broke them down i googled gross domestic income and 3 or 4 items down on the list was a hit for bea bea does stats and there ya go quarterly data from 1947 to 2011 annual data from 1929 it downloads as a csv file which excel can read fine but if you want to get all the data excel cannot import it all too many columns if you can believe that bea lists the years across in a row not down in a column and there s just too many years to get all the quarterly data gotta do it in pieces oh well for this post i downloaded the annual data csv openoffice opened the file no trouble at all i took a quick look graph 1 graph 2 graph 3 graph 4 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments sunday september 25 2011 diary with a twist lets not forget how we got here into this global mess globalization banking deregulation privatization and free market capitalism as the cure for everything lucky tan agreed but let s also not forget the prior problems that left us looking for the cure for everything posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments saturday september 24 2011 andrei you ve lost another submarine another government shutdown i ll tell you the problem 1 republicans think the federal debt is a result of federal spending 2 democrats think the federal debt is a result of federal spending 3 and you think the federal debt is a result of federal spending that s the problem that and the federal debt is not the result of federal spending debt is not the result of spending debt is the result of credit use i ll tell you the problem 1 u s economic policy fights inflation by removing money from circulation 2 u s economic policy induces growth by encouraging the use of credit 3 u s economic policy removes money from circulation and encourages credit use and debt is the result of credit use we don t have all this debt because of spending we have all this debt because of stupid ideas about money and stupid ideas about credit posted by the arthurian at 9 46 am 7 comments yup a pacer the first thing i ever put on a credit card was back in the 1970s i got new tires at sears for our amc pacer yup a pacer i liked the thing anyway we can assume i ve always had a credit card balance since that day so if we look at it lifo last in first out then i guess i m still paying for those tires 18 annual interest 33 years 1188 just in interest for tires for that car long gone this is what happens when there are no tax incentives to accelerate the repayment of debt if i was the only one i d say forget it but it s not just me posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 6 comments friday september 23 2011 pink and blue wilt liminal hack asks why can debt growth be described by a mathematically perfect exponential the word perfect bothers me a little however source 1000 memories via gene hayward these are almost perfect except for those endings of course posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments thursday september 22 2011 the twist for some reason nine readable lines from a pdf turns into interminable fine print on the blog i have taken one paragraph and an afterthought eric swanson s paper and put a little breathing room between thoughts from let s twist again a high frequency event study analysis of operation twist and its implications for qe2 eric t swanson federal reserve bank of san francisco march 14 2011 pdf 34 pages john f kennedy was elected president of the united states in november 1960 and inaugurated on january 20 1961 the u s economy had been in recession since april of 1960 and the recession was ongoing it would ultimately end...
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