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tivity growth rose and fell with output growth but since then the relationship between these two variables has weakened and they have even moved in different directions thought i d take a look at that here are percent change from year ago patterns for inflation adjusted gdp and total factor productivity at constant prices graph 1 growth rates of rgdp blue and tfp not blue wait a minute rgdp is quarterly tfp is annual that makes the blue line more jiggy it throws off the comparison i can t make tfp quarterly but i can show rgdp as annual values graph 2 annual to annual growth rates rgdp blue and tfp wow that s better the similarity really stands out now but i don t know about what willem van zandweghe said it s pretty easy to see productivity growth rising and falling with output growth it s not so easy to see a change in that pattern since the mid 1980s hey i know what to do subtract from series a the average value of series a and then divide by the standard deviation for series a and then multiply by the standard deviation for series b and then add the average value of series b i used openoffice calc on data from 1951 thru 2011 to figure the average and standard deviation values then i retrieved graph 2 and plugged in the numbers not bad i got a couple mismatched parentheses errors along the way but fred and i survived the ordeal here s the christensen fitted comparison graph graph 3 the blue line rgdp christensen fitted to the not quite red tfp line the two lines are a close match at a glance they move up and down together and i don t see any movement in different directions since the mid 1980s so i don t know what willem van zandweghe was talking about okay next i subtracted the total factor productivity number from the fitted rgdp just by inspection i don t see any obvious errors in it i think the new fred is coming around as for the graph itself graph 4 christensen fitted rgdp less tfp looks like rgdp growth is declining relative to total factor productivity maybe that s the different directions thing van zandweghe wrote about what the last graph shows is that even when productivity is good gdp growth is not as good as it used to be even when productivity is good gdp growth is not as good as it used to be related posts august 11 2013 the theoretical case behind ngdpt is quite weak august 12 2013 dividing these series each by its own standard deviation will similarize the up and downs of the different series august 13 2013 he sees the size and the location of the up and down pattern as separate from the pattern itself august 14 2013 the first step of christensen s calculation august 31 2013 some nifty stuff with averages and standard deviations to fit one line to another on a graph september 1 2013 christensen s market indicator has already been used as proof and disproof and i m still just checking the arithmetic september 2 2013 lars s numbers are ridiculously large and obviously in error march 18 2014 fred must use a calculation very much like this to scale and shift the right axis numbers when two axes are used on a graph posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 16 comments tuesday march 25 2014 the boom of the 1990s nber presents u s monetary policy during the 1990s matt nesvisky s review of greg mankiw s review of well of u s monetary policy in the 1990s mankiw notes the low volatility of inflation growth and joblessness then too large supply shocks were uncommon in the 1990s and good shocks in fact were more common than bad all told mankiw sees in the 1990s a combination of good policy and good luck here s the piece of nesvisky s article that that gets my full attention also fortuitous was the behavior of the stock market for not only were returns high but volatility was low making the 1990s essentially the best time ever to be investing in wall street little evidence suggests the booming market played a large independent role in monetary policy yet significantly the bull market of the period preceded the acceleration of the productivity rate by several years and the market can be a driving force of the business cycle the bull market preceded the acceleration of the productivity rate by several years i went right away to fred it seems to be okay when calculations of series data are not involved for a look at dow jones and s p rate of change rates graph 1 stock market index growth rates the thin vertical line between 1990 and 2000 is not a recession but a date selector related to the date and market index values just at the start of the large increase which to me looks like the start of the bull market of the 1990s that large increase occurs in 1995 but that s not several years before the acceleration of the productivity rate what was mankiw thinking dean baker and john schmitt describe a nine year 1996 2004 boom in productivity bill c at twenty cent paradigms presents his own estimate and that of the economic report of the president both show the boom beginning in 1996 in a 2002 paper robert j gordon refers to the 1995 2000 productivity growth revival these sources all place the start of the productivity boom in 1995 or 96 the same year or the year immediately following the 1995 date i have identified as the start of the 1990s bull market in contrast to mankiw s several years perhaps i have the bull market date wrong no the san fransisco fed s dr econ february 2001 offers this graph showing the bullish increase beginning in the fifth year after 1990 that is in 1995 graph 2 the bull market of the 1990s red begins in1995 according to matt nesvisky greg mankiw places the start of the bull market several years before the start of the productivity boom according to me greg mankiw is not correct but if you re looking for something that preceded the acceleration of the productivity rate by several years i ve got a contender for you it s my latest version of the debt per dollar ratio base to debt this time i first presented it on 23 march in relation to potential gdp i offer it again now in contrast the the bull market story of greg mankiw graph 3 base money relative to total debt red and stock market measures this graph is similar to graph 1 i had to recreate it once due to my own lack of foresight and a second time because fred destroyed the graph after i tried to save it as a pdf but i have the same three market series as before percent change from year ago left axis and i ve added the bolder red line ambsl base money divided by tcmdo debt with the percent change from year ago transformation on graph 3 you can see a tall wide increase in base relative to total debt it begins around 1990 and lasts into the mid 1990s this burst of money growth in a time of reduced debt growth does in fact occur several years before the start of the stock market and productivity booms of the 1990s in fact the lines cross in the mid 1990s the red base to debt line falling just as the market indices get a good uptrend going here s the link but fred can t get the dates right posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments monday march 24 2014 zoho debt growth and inflation dunno what i searched for but it led me to an old 2012 joe weisenthal post with a really good name there s only one way to fix the deficit and actually it s totally painless after some painful preliminaries weisenthal says the primary driver of deficits is a lack of growth i agree weisenthal s post is too long and shows too many graphs as if he thinks his staying power is enough to convince the reader ha but he does get around to saying this sadly achieving growth is not trivial so although it s the only meaningful solution to the deficit there isn t agreement on the magic answer to get there the magic answer of course is to reduce private sector debt but weisenthal insists on writing about the federal debt the same search led me to an old again 2012 fictional reserve barking post evsey domar s on deficits and debt a survival guide for making sense of today s economic challenges circuit writes specifically in his paper domar demonstrated that in the long run the ratio of debt to gdp will gradually approach the ratio of the fraction of gdp borrowed each year to the rate of growth of gdp so for instance the us federal government borrowed approximately 7 percent of gdp in 2012 if the borrowing continued at the same rate and the gdp in money terms grows at 2 percent per year the ratio of debt to gdp will approach 3 5 with a 3 percent growth it will be 2 3 thus domar showed that less attention should be devoted to the problem of the debt and more to finding ways of achieving a growing national income 1945 415 i totally agree with the focus on growing national income and it ties in nicely with weisenthal s focus on growth but it s circuit s first paragraph that gets my attention the long run the ratio of debt to gdp borrowing 7 of gdp annually and 2 gdp growth these are things i can do in a spreadsheet i can test to see whether the ratio of debt to gdp approaches 3 5 with 7 deficits and 2 growth and approaches 2 3 with growth at 3 like circuit says running a test like that is not a mathematical proof but it helps make the results real for me and that s worth a lot in the zoho spreadsheet below you can enter numbers in the yellow cells and watch the graph change after the thing recalculates if you mess up the sheet you can fix it by refreshing the page the default settings match circuit s example the 7 in yellow cell a2 represents federal deficits each year equal to 7 percent of gdp and the 2 in yellow cell a3 represents gdp growth of 2 percent per year circuit says in money terms not sure what he means by that i think he means nominal but based on circuit s presentation i think domar must have been talking about real not inflating growth inflation would change the value of the long run ratio as weisenthal says nominal growth is all you need to reduce our debt burdens if real growth is 2 and inflation is another 2 nominal gdp growth is 4 existing debt shrinks faster relative to gdp if gdp is inflating so i added a third yellow cell cell a4 to hold the rate of inflation the default value is zero no inflation therefore the red line that represents eroded debt is hidden by the blue line which does not consider inflation click cell a4 type the number 2 for 2 inflation and press the enter key to see the erosion of debt that weisenthal is talking about try higher gdp growth rates also to see how better growth reduces the debt gdp ratio if it looks like the blue line didn t move much it may be because the numbers changed on the vertical axis give the graph a moment to refresh after you make a change check me on the eroded debt calculation posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments sunday march 23 2014 ambsl tcmdo and gdppot graph 1 growth rates potential gdp red and base money as a percent of total debt the blue line is generally well below zero for most of the years shown that is the growth of base money was consistently slower than the growth of total public and private debt the red line generally trends downward in other words the potential in potential output diminishes over time the one remarkable large and sustained actual increase in base relative to debt occurs on the blue line between 1989 and 1996 in the midst of that increase potential output turns and trends upward for a decade this is a significant change in the pattern of decline shown by potential output the only other significant change in the decline of potential output is the uptrend that occurs between 1955 and 1967 remarkably this trend corresponds even more clearly to an uptrend in the base to debt ratio conditions were different in the 1990s and the 1950s the changes in the blue line look different on the graph but both periods show uptrend in the base debt ratio and both show uptrend in potential output if you think we need better growth look at money and total debt posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday march 22 2014 it works about as well as everything else the fed does i think the new fred goes astray as soon as you get an error while entering the formula unfortunately if you want to type a b you have to type the b really fast otherwise in the fraction of a second between typing the and the b fred will give you an error that s not something new the old fred was a pain in the ass that way too but with the new fred after you get the error message everything falls apart i managed to add data series for total debt and the federal portion and the state and local government portion all without error the graph all the while showed the first series correctly then by typing b really fast taking time to position my fingers and typing c really fast i got the formula to be a b c without getting an error message and the graph actually showed something that matched the formula i was trying to duplicate the u s debt portion of steve keen s change in private debt graph that i showed yesterday change in private debt as a percent of gdp so next i added gdp as series d fred identifies the series by letter the first one you select is a the next is b and like that but now i had to change the formula to read a b c d here s where i made my big mistake i used the backspace to delete the formula and before i could type the fred gave me an error message it was all downhill from there i ignored the error message and entered the correct formula amazingly the graph looked okay but keen s graph shows change in debt relative to gdp so i went back to the a b and c data my three debt measures and changed the units from billions of dollars to change billions of dollars i just changed the three debt series not the gdp series but when i looked back at the graph it had figured change billions of dollars for all four series including gdp the graph was all spikey and obviously not like keen s graph from there things only got worse i removed the d from the formula and clicked apply the graph changed correctly then i added d to the formula and clicked apply again but the graph didn t change even though the formula shows a b c d the graph and the graph borders show only a b c what else did i do oh yeah i clicked max up at the top above the graph to set the date range and fred set the date range all right it set the start date equal to the end date but the graph didn t change but hey that was on the 20th maybe it s all fixed by now posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments friday march 21 2014 getting it i saw one of those build a story things on the internet the other day you know read what everyone else has written and add a sentence to build the tale i think stories get told like that on serious blogs too economic and political blogs it s like building a meem i m spelling it meem from now on by the way you know i don t like those stories not when it comes to politics and the economy these things affect people s lives we need something better than just good stories we need the stories to be right you got this from me i got...
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