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puzzle of effective demand with which malthus had wrestled vanished from economic literature you will not find it mentioned even once in the whole works of marshall edgeworth and professor pigou from whose hands the classical theory has received its most mature embodiment it could only live on furtively below the surface in the underworlds of karl marx silvio gesell or major douglas the completeness of the ricardian victory is something of a curiosity and a mystery it must have been due to a complex of suitabilities in the doctrine to the environment into which it was projected that it reached conclusions quite different from what the ordinary uninstructed person would expect added i suppose to its intellectual prestige that its teaching translated into practice was austere and often unpalatable lent it virtue that it was adapted to carry a vast and consistent logical superstructure gave it beauty that it could explain much social injustice and apparent cruelty as an inevitable incident in the scheme of progress and the attempt to change such things as likely on the whole to do more harm than good commended it to authority that it afforded a measure of justification to the free activities of the individual capitalist attracted to it the support of the dominant social force behind authority john maynard keynes posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday august 22 2014 this is how investigation begins graph 1 when i look at this graph i see a period of relative stability which ended by 1970 after that a series of downward steps each downward step shows a sag in the blue line a sag that runs from recession to recession the recessions provide relative high points but each high point is lower than the last i don t see balance sheets i don t see arguments about how it s really a problem or really not a problem i don t see things like that i see a line on a graph impressions sure i have impressions my impression is that something is seriously different before and after 1970 it looks sustainable before 1970 unsustainable after i don t think you look at this graph and say every liability is somebody s asset that s not an argument that s a definition i think you look at the graph and say okay well the federal government has been doing something different since around 1970 best case best case the government has been trying to do good for us pumping money into the economy trying to make things better you know the keynesian thing update 1 46 pm 24 august added graphs note on these graphs the height of the white background graph area is less because there are more series titles in the upper blue border because the height of the white area is less the blue line looks smaller but it s exactly the same data as in graph 1 no that can t be right there s a big sag in the blue line on graph 2 what the hell hey i did these graphs quickly but i didn t change the blue line i bet it s another fred glitch i ll get back to ya i m supposed to be mowing the lawn graph 2 blue line is the same as on graph 1 bad fred okay the glitch on graph 2 has to do with data frequency the 10 year space between 1990 and 2000 on the graph is much larger than the 20 year space between 1970 and 1990 fred would say i was careless with data frequency i would say they should prevent this kind of error for another example see my i don t know what that is but it isn t gdp i wasn t sure which version of trade deficit numbers to use so i tried three different ones the units are all over the place red and blue lines are the same millions of dollars the red line is very close to the zero line the green line was dollars so i divided by a million and the gray line was billions so i multiplied by a thousand i was glad to see gray and green are similar makes me think that s a good one to use either of those revised graph 2 graph 2 do over just the blue and gray this time now the blue is as in graph 1 the next graph graph 3 shows the gray one as a percent of the blue one i did this one over too graph 3 balance on current account as a percent of federal government net worth very interesting posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 13 comments thursday august 21 2014 federal government net worth relative to gdp and the federal debt well i was just going to go with this graph today blue line the federal government net worth data from yesterday s graph converted to billions and divided by gdp red line federal debt as a percent of gdp expressed as negative values but after the responses to yesterday s post the above seems inadequate so i tracked down the data behind the federal government net worth graph i googled table s 7 q and got to the bea integrated macroeconomic accounts for the united states page they list several tables with an a suffix annual and a q suffix quarterly table s 7 in both cases is federal government data i m only looking at annual data as the file is a lot smaller and only the most recent values which is 2012 for some reason also i m deleting the first 95 line items from the file to get to the changes in balance sheet account part total assets line 96 4626 9 billion dollars not far off from the 4 trillion greg noted in comments yesterday total liabilities and net worth line 128 also 4626 9 billion but the liabilities line 129 are 15245 9 billion and the net worth line 145 is 10619 billion that s more than enough detail for me posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments wednesday august 20 2014 federal government net worth ima level the units are a bit confusing the units in the left side border are given as millions of dollars and the lowest number on the vertical scale is given as 12m that s 12 million in the hole but it s not twelve million dollars it s twelve million million 12 trillion in the hole but you probably knew that posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments tuesday august 19 2014 effective demand google small business by demand media what is the difference between demand and effective demand by ronald kimmons demand media demand demand is the term that economists use to describe the ability and willingness of buyers to purchase a product or service this is a general term that takes a number of issues into account such as buyer income buyer perceptions and buyer needs demand is a market force opposite of supply which is the ability and willingness of producers and service providers to provide products and services on the market this general idea of demand is often called notional demand which is composed of both latent demand and effective demand latent demand even if a buyer needs or would be willing to purchase a particular product or service he cannot do so if he lacks the necessary funds or if he does not know about that product or service this portion of market demand is called latent demand the importance of latent demand is that it presents an opportunity to firms to increase revenue by investing in marketing efforts or introducing low cost products effective demand effective demand is a representation of the actual amount of goods or services that buyers are purchasing in a given market effective demand is the difference between notional demand and latent demand effective demand is a reflection of the extent to which buyers income perceptions and needs combine to result in an actual purchase rather than a mere desire to purchase in recent comments at angry bear i said to ed lambert i would suggest again that what you are measuring is potential demand not effective demand lambert replied the term effective implies a limit so it is better than potential but the terms are very close potential output has been surpassed many times but not effective demand effective implies the top limit i refer you to the definitions above from google and ronald kimmons i still think potential demand is the better name for the work lambert is doing but of course i might misunderstand him here s my problem if i can t get clear on what he s looking at i can t even begin to understand what he s saying he s definitely not looking at effective demand as defined by google and ronald kimmons a year back at angry bear i wrote i m thinking lambert s effective demand is really a kind of potential demand after all lambert says the best way to think about effective demand is the unused capacity of demand in the economy what he is describing is demand in an economist s perfect world just as potential output is a measure of real output in that perfect world though even that perfect world is far from perfect lambert your explanations help but your use of the words effective demand troubles me because i think it differs from keynes use of those same words and from adam smith s words effectual demand both of which refer to the amount of money people actually spend back then lambert himself wrote if unused supply of labor and capital is high potential demand is going unfilled think of effective demand as potential demand yet potential demand is constrained by labor share of income effective demand is demand backed by purchasing power i think potential demand is a measure of the most that effective demand could be i think lambert is doing potential demand and i think it might be real genius but effective demand is something different posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 6 comments monday august 18 2014 bad debt expense corporate bad debt expense graph 1 corporate bad debt expense it just goes up more and more and more but look at it on a log scale there is a straight line increase from the 1940s to 1990 graph 2 corporate bad debt expense on a log scale after 1990 the increase of bad debt slowed i find it most interesting that this graph shows no acceleration in bad debt the graph shows no upcurving trend anywhere between the late 1940s and 1990 it shows a constant rate of increase despite the growth of debt posted by the arthurian at 4 01 am 0 comments sunday august 17 2014 the net worth of the financial sector from wikipedia the net worth of the united states and its economic sectors has remained relatively consistent over time the total net worth of the united states remained between 4 5 and 6 times gdp from 1960 until the 2000s the net worth of american households and non profits constitutes three quarters of total united states net worth in 2008 355 of gdp since 1960 us households have consistently held this position followed by nonfinancial business 137 of gdp in 2008 and state and local governments 50 of gdp in 2008 the financial sector has hovered around zero net worth since 1960 that last sentence there this is the complete thought the financial sector has hovered around zero net worth since 1960 reflecting its leverage but the article has already defined net worth as assets less liabilities so do we need the explanation embodied in those three extra words eh for me the key bit of information is that the financial sector has approximately zero net worth next from the dallas fed working paper 161 from 2013 is the net worth of financial intermediaries more important than that of non financial firms oh that s funny at the dallas fed the working papers are in a documents folder which is in an assets folder http www dallasfed org assets documents institute wpapers 2013 0161 pdf one can see the central banker s mind at work but i wonder do they also have a liabilities folder by naohisa hirakata and nao sudo of the bank of japan and kozo ueda of waseda university from the abstract our model which is calibrated to the u s economy highlights two features of the fis financial intermediaries net worth first the relative size of fis net worth as compared to entrepreneurial net worth namely the net worth distribution in the economy is important for the financial accelerator effect second a shock to the fis net worth has greater aggregate impact than that to entrepreneurial net worth the key reason for these findings is the low net worth of fis in the united states in other words the low net worth of the financial sector magnifies the effect of a shock and a shock to the financial sector has a greater impact than a shock to the productive sector from the conclusion of that paper our results have policy implications regarding the intensified basel bank regulations that have progressed after the financial crisis in those regulatory frameworks the fis net worth is expected to play the pivotal role in achieving the financial stability along this line our results suggest that the regulatory framework that protects banks net worth from irrational exuberance or that fosters accumulation of banks net worth may be beneficial from the macroeconomic stability purpose mmm i don t like this basel is bis the bank for international settlements it s a friend of the bank sort of thing but why would we trust bankers to solve this problem did we learn nothing from the crisis look what bankers want to do they want to protect banks net worth and foster its accumulation i would rather solve the problem by having governments provide more money and have each dollar of that money turned into fewer dollars of credit than is the case today i want to reduce the reliance on credit and increase reliance on the dollar i want to reduce the demand for credit and in so doing reduce the demand for a financial sector if we do this then boosting banks net worth might help solve the problem if we do not then boosting banks net worth only hastens the day when banks own everything and we are no longer fremen but coloni and slaves posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments saturday august 16 2014 oh this is precious i was looking for goldilocks economy dated 22 november 2007 from lawrence kudlow at real clear politics november 22 2007 three more years of goldilocks by lawrence kudlow there was some revealing information in the three year forecast published by the federal reserve this week it looks like ben bernanke co are dissing high oil and gold prices and the sagging dollar as influences on future inflation instead they basically see 2 percent inflation both headline and core in 2008 2009 and 2010 the fed also sees goldilocks type economic growth not too hot not too cold for the next three years for 2008 an election year the fed is looking at 2 1 percent growth their lowest estimate this rises to 2 5 percent in 2009 and 2010 so how did the fed s gdp growth prediction work out one out of three but it gets better kudlow offers his own predictions and analysis i think the election year economy will be stronger than the fed s estimate closer to 3 percent too much is being made of both the sub prime credit problem and the housing downturn a recent bank of england study shows that residential mortgage backed securities in the u s total 5 8 trillion of that only 700 billion or 12 percent are sub prime even when you add in 600 billion of so called alt a mortgage paper most of which will not default the total of these home loans is still less than 20 percent of all mortgage backed paper what s more the entire market i...
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