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Text of the page (random words):
already distinguishable from other primates 1 million years ago imagine placing a time line corresponding to this million year period along the length of a football field on this time line humans were hunters and gatherers until the agricultural revolution perhaps 10 000 years ago that is for the first 99 yards of the field the height of the roman empire occurs only 7 inches from the rightmost goal line and the industrial revolution begins less than one inch from the field s end large sustained increases in standards of living our working definition of an industrial revolution have occurred during a relatively short time equivalent to the width of a golf ball resting at the end of a football field i like that imagery let me jump back now from the jones pdf to the discussion at mberre s link no says integralds you will not drag me into an industrial revolution discussion today but this paper gives me ideas for an article of the week around november december you can tell from reading his stuff integralds has the perspectives of an economist nobody s gonna boot his stuff off the site you can tell he s good you can t i can t tell he s a he but i m gonna take that bet to keep the text flow going what did you have in mind mberre replies integralds then identifies three papers he might want to recommend for article of the week and says he s already got other papers to recommend for september and october so it looks like november or later for his contribution to the industrial revolution discussion and then he says i think the idea that the ir was the single important macro event in history is still underappreciated by some the discussions of why britain why not japan china india or europe are still interesting the discussion of where the ir came from is interesting ain t it though it s enough to bring you back to reddit despite rule two the first of the three papers integralds identifies is gregory clark s sixteen page economic history of the world who could resist a title like that not me before i get into the 16 page paper i want to quote another short section from the jones paper this time from the conclusion a long time ago the world population was relatively small and the productivity of this population at producing ideas was relatively low in part because of the absence of institutions such as property rights for example in the year 25000 b c the model suggests that it took several hundred years before the society of 3 34 million people produced a single new idea once this idea was discovered however consumption and fertility rose producing a rise in population growth so that there were more people available to find new ideas and the next new idea was discovered more quickly in the model this feedback leads to accelerating rates of population growth and consumption growth provided the aggregate production technology is characterized by increasing returns to accumulable factors in the absence of shocks this general feedback seems capable of producing something like an industrial revolution however the quantitative analysis suggests that changes in institutions to support innovation have been extremely important the rise and decline of institutions such as property rights could be responsible for the rise and decline of great civilizations in the past i didn t read all 54 pages i skipped to the conclusion slow reader but hey i don t want his whole argument i want his idea and i don t want to wait several hundred years to get it the idea is well this will be crude there is maybe one good new idea in maybe two billion man years of human existence it took several hundred years before the society of 3 34 million people produced a single new idea say 600 years 600 years times 3 34 million people is just over two billion man years oh i m doing it again just over two billion person years does that comfort you for charles i jones when a good idea comes along and works its way into the culture society can support a little larger population than it did before and then with a larger population it takes fewer years to accumulate the next two billion man years so the next good idea comes along a little sooner then again the good idea leads to a society that can support more people and the larger population means the next new idea will again come along a little sooner the next time kinda clever kinda mundane not the most interesting analysis i ve ever read but it s a place to start after all as integralds said the discussions of why britain why not japan china india or europe are still interesting the discussion of where the ir came from is interesting it gets interesting so the other guy gregory clark 16 pages here s his opening paragraph the basic outline of world economic history is surprisingly simple indeed it can be summarized in one diagram figure 1 1 before 1800 income per person the food clothing heat light and housing available per head varied across societies and epochs but there was no upward trend a simple but powerful mechanism explained in this book the malthusian trap ensured that short term gains in income through technological advances were inevitably lost through population growth okay it s interesting already clark says a good idea comes along and pushes up per capita income then the population expands and per capita goes down again the best part is clark and jones totally contradict one another they agree that a good idea or a technological advance makes people better off but they go two different directions from there jones says the population increases so good ideas come sooner clark says the population increases so the per capita gains are lost this is a classic contradiction i love it here s the thing for jones the graph of human progress would look like a very slow very long term exponential rise it s always upward it just takes a really really long time to get to the far end of the football field for clark it s not always upward for clark it s up and down here s his figure 1 1 clark figure 1 1 world economic history in one picture incomes rose sharply in many countries after 1800 but declined in others i think clark s graph is more realistic than the one i made up for jones but i have to raise an eyebrow at figure 1 1 it goes back in time some three thousand years and the graph shows all that detail tell you the truth i was drawing wavy lines like that underlining passages in my printout of clark s pdf so far i prefer clark s 16 page argument but we ll see how it goes posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments thursday august 28 2014 an open economy maybe an open r economics no posts from perspectives other than those of economists will be removed sayonara r economics posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments wednesday august 27 2014 what do we gain by this we reduce what it costs to have a money supply and that s a big deal it means we reduce the cost push pressures that have troubled our economy since the 1960s at the guardian nobel winning economists challenge conventional thinking on recovery i thought it was confusingly written but there are a few sentences i have to address princeton university professor christopher sims threw the first punch monetarists he said believe that an expansion of debt is like an expansion of money and can cause inflation there are two reasons why this view is wrong the first is that interest is paid on this debt so it is not free money more importantly the newly minted central bank debt which amounts to more than 5tn 3tn is a weak policy that has failed to increase consumer demand and therefore has little effect on inflation to go back a step the expansion of money by central banks familiar to us as quantitative easing qe was sold to politicians as a way to encourage bank lending increase consumer spending and generate moderate inflation sims said qe is weak when governments accompany the bond buying with dire warnings of the need to tackle these debts at a later date either through cuts in expenditure or higher taxes there s too many thoughts in there and not enough focus but anyway professor sims says some people think an expansion of debt is like an expansion of money and can cause inflation of course it is and of course it can and it has look at it from the other side a shrinkage of debt is like a shrinkage of money and can cause deflation one of the great concerns of the federal reserve in the years since the crisis was to avoid deflation back in 2009 for example glenn d rudebush of the san francisco fed wanted to prevent inflationary expectations from falling too low he wasn t fighting inflation he was fighting de flation with falling debt comes deflation with rising debt comes inflation professor sims denies it why because interest is paid on this debt so it is not free money this is like random thoughts from nowhere yes interest is paid on debt it is the cost of keeping money in circulation the alternative is to snatch a dollar out of circulation a dollar of income and use it to pay down debt until you do that you are paying interest to keep money in circulation the money that you borrowed and spent into circulation here s the thing the interest that we pay to keep money in circulation is an economic cost for me it competes with other uses of that money like going out to dinner once in a while or buying a new computer for businesses the cost of keeping money in circulation competes with the cost of labor business interest costs compete with business labor costs for business dollars the more they pay as interest the less remains for wages and salaries today s post title is from yesterday s post posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments tuesday august 26 2014 slack samuelson take two yesterday we looked at robert j samuelson s remarks in the washington post interest rates and the fed s great slack debate today definitions what does samuelson mean by slack is it time to consider raising rates to preempt higher inflation the answer depends heavily on the economy s slack its capacity to increase production without triggering price pressures slack is economics jargon for spare capacity it means unemployed workers idle factories vacant offices and empty stores got it slack is the thing we don t want but that s samuelson s definition of slack not mine he s talking about slack in the real economy i want to see slack in the financial system just because we know how to turn a dollar of money into 40 dollars of debt doesn t mean we should do it why not reduce that number to 20 of new debt from each new dollar of money and have 20 slack if that s not enough credit they can print more money it won t be inflationary as long as debt per dollar is restrained if 20 debt is still too much cut it in half again and double the money again what do we gain by this we reduce what it costs to have a money supply and that s a big deal it means we reduce the cost push pressures that have troubled our economy since the 1960s we don t need more slack in the real economy we need more slack in the financial sector that s where we need it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday august 25 2014 economists know about the crisis they know they missed a big one they know they misunderstand something yet they go back to the same old song and dance from robert j samuelson in the washington post interest rates and the fed s great slack debate call it the great slack debate for nearly six years the federal reserve has held short term interest rates near zero to boost the economy is it time to consider raising rates to preempt higher inflation the answer depends heavily on the economy s slack its capacity to increase production without triggering price pressures although economists are arguing furiously over this there s no scientific way to measure slack slack is economics jargon for spare capacity it means unemployed workers idle factories vacant offices and empty stores its significance is obvious if there s a lot of slack inflation shouldn t be a problem how much slack is there today we don t know economic policymaking is not an exact science ideally the fed would begin raising interest rates sometime just before the economy exhausts its slack but we don t know where that point is there is absolutely nothing new in samuelson s view people always argue whether the economy s growth indicates that interest rates should go up now or go up later there s nothing new in that there s nothing new either in thinking that raising interest rates is the right solution to the inflation problem that s widely agreed upon that s the problem raising interest rates is the ideal solution according to robert j samuelson but it isn t it s not even a good solution it s a bad solution it undermines growth it increases slack it increases unemployment a better solution arises from looking at the problem in a new light why cut off new growth by raising rates isn t that foolish it s not future growth that is responsible for inflation if and when we have inflation it s recent growth much of that recent growth will have been funded by recent borrowing recent borrowing the money has already been spent that s how we got the growth and there is extra money that s still in the economy contributing to price pressures our solution the universally accepted solution robert j samuelson s ideal solution is to raise interest rates cut off new growth and cut off inflation i think not leave rates low let it grow if you re concerned about inflation take the money out of the economy that s already in the economy causing inflation take out the extra money that was put there by recent borrowing take that money out of the economy by getting the people who borrowed it to pay it back pay back that debt extinguish that debt and extinguish the money that came into existence along with that debt fight inflation by reducing private debt fight inflation by creating incentives that encourage people to pay down debt pay down debt to fight inflation borrow you bastards borrow and grow the economy but tomorrow pay it back posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments sunday august 24 2014 so i hit a rock with the mower assuming balance on current account is a flow not a stock graph 1 balance on current account as a percent of gdp the accumulated balance was certainly in our favor until the early 1980s the u s in other words must have had an accumulated surplus until the 1980s some minor trade deficits but no trade debt till later on this graph you can t even see much instability arising with the closing of the gold window in 1971 posted by the arthurian at 4 32 pm 0 comments an incident illustrates kenneth arrow quoted by lars p syll it is my view that most individuals underestimate the uncertainty of the world this is almost as true of economists and other specialists as it is of the lay public to me our knowledge of the way things work in society or in nature comes trailing clouds of vagueness experience during world war ii as a w...