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new arthurian economics february 2012 the new arthurian economics challenging the premisses newer posts at econcrit start with the debt problem three views of it and the most important thing here s a longer look at the debt problem here s a short one on economic policy some surprising trends and a few unusual policy recommendations how d we get into this mess read policy venn and policies of the venn overlap still with me read a matter of life and death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 plus ça change plus c est la même chose fcm and the long view fcm and the macroeconomic miracle fcm pair and the fedfunds rate fcm the factor cost of money further review friedman did it with strawberries private debt 2012 8 smoke n mirror smokin gun microbes estimating the factor cost of money 2 estimating the factor cost of money 1 everyday my wife bakes for the dogs jw mason 4 see it s micro jw mason 3 because debt is a stock jw mason 2 what context for debt a birthday and my war on debt continues private debt 2012 7 confusion nightmare jw mason fisher dynamics in household debt encumbered money productive argument with a touch of irony wealth shock bleak apologists improved google docs spreadsheet charts alan b krueger the rise and consequences of ineq dancing with steve rest easy quick review quiz wfhummel net the role of bank reserves private debt 2012 6 evaluating the public debt amateurishly done professionally done mitchell 17991 1 the least of my concerns like the wind postmodern krugman cycles goods and services repayment of a business loan is not deductible i can t read these things i m not concerned with the very poor question ten untitled private debt 2012 5 consumer credit debt the good the bad and the ugly january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization 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timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman wednesday february 29 2012 plus ça change plus c est la même chose from the wall street journal obama s dividend assault a plan to triple the tax rate would hurt all shareholders the new dividend tax rate in 2013 would be 44 8 nearly three times today s 15 rate and on and on not at all like news more like a rant here s what i noticed there is no mention of the 100 deduction for business interest expense so the plan apparently is to keep encouraging credit use and the accumulation of debt to reward and encourage finance rather than production and productivity it s a bad plan posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday february 28 2012 fcm and the long view using jazzbumpa s source i dug up productivity data from the bls website which took quit a bit of digging fortunately skeptic at reality base did the same thing and identifies the data series year over year non farm productivity growth change as prs85006092 we can now take a longer term view of productivity and the factor cost of money the bls site offers major sector productivity and costs and provides numbers with units given as change quarter ago at annual rate i couldn t get change from year ago numbers but it probably doesn t matter i grabbed the data for all the years i could get back to 1947 annual numbers since 1948 popped em into a google docs sheet and fiddled with moving averages to get something fairly smooth brought my fcm per gdp numbers into the file and threw a graph together source my google docs spreadsheet edit 8 feb 2019 the old link to the live graph is not working but the graph is okay in the spreadsheet so i replaced the live graph link with an image in outline productivity goes down as the factor cost of money increases and productivity goes up as the factor cost of money declines looking at the early years one could argue that productivity and the fcm moved up together when the fcm was very low when finance was still facilitating economic performance on my graph the two travel together until 1962 then veer apart if i plotted the moving average at the last year of the period the separation date would be 1966 so somewhere in the 1962 1966 period is when finance became excessive and started hindering rather than helping economic performance posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments labels fcm monday february 27 2012 fcm and the macroeconomic miracle i still want to look at the factor cost of money in relation to the macroeconomic miracle years robert j gordon 2002 nber working paper no 8771 issued in february 2002 this paper examines the sources of the u s macroeconomic miracle of 1995 2000 and attempts to distinguish among permanent sources of american leadership in high technology industries as contrasted with the particular post 1995 episode of technological acceleration and with other independent sources of the economic miracle unrelated to technology dean baker and john schmitt 2007 from the mid 1990s on however official productivity growth again accelerated rapidly returning to a 2 9 rate reminiscent of the golden age quite suddenly though in the second half of 2004 productivity growth dropped sharply james kahn and robert rich 2011 following a resurgence of strong productivity growth in the late 1990s and early 2000s after nearly a quarter century of slow growth beginning in 1973 the latest reading from a trend tracking model now indicates that slow productivity growth returned in 2004 mary amiti and kevin stiroh 2007 chart 1 trend labor productivity growth source the conference board and groningen growth and development centre total economy database january 2007 http www ggdc net notes labor productivity is defined as real gdp per hour worked trend estimates are based on a hodrick prescott filter with a smoothing parameter of 100 that blue line on their chart shows us productivity dropping off continuously from 1961 to 1978 dragging the bottom till 1993 then rising during the miracle years finally i came upon bls productivity numbers for 1990 2011 i figured the annual change in productivity and plotted that against the factor cost of money as a percent of gdp source my google docs spreadsheet i m not making any bold claims for this graph but it looks to me like productivity and the factor cost of money tend to move in opposite directions keep in mind that productivity is not a policy it is a goal monetary policy is policy so if there is causality it is the factor cost of money that influences productivity not that monetary policy presently pays attention to the factor cost of money but maybe they should in evaluating my graph i would ask that you not only point out its weaknesses but also examine its possible strengths ask for example does it make sense for example if our basis for comparison is krugman s concern with the zero lower bound and the need to have negative interest rates to revitalize the economy then yes it makes sense in that context negative interest rates would reduce the factor cost of money and reducing the fcm would enhance productivity and growth given this basis of similarity let me point out what the fcm captures it is not only the rate of interest but also the size of accumulated debt that affects the cost that inhibits growth examine the strengths posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fcm productivity sunday february 26 2012 fcm pair and the fedfunds rate i took graph 2 from yesterday s post and renumbered it graph 1 federal outlays for interest relative to the two measures of debt the graph shows fred s fyoint federal outlays interest as a percent of the federal debt for both the 10b and 14b version of the federal debt i m considering the lower set of numbers as the average interest rate paid by the federal government on its gross debt i m in the early stages of using that set of numbers as a proxy for the average interest rate paid by everybody else on all the debt owed other than the federal debt i m calling this interest rate the pair or proxy average interest rate i took and slapped the fedfunds rate onto the graph for comparison graph 2 pair and the federal funds rate pair and fedfunds move in the same general direction up together until the early 1980s and down together thereafter fedfunds is a lot more variable of course but that s because the fed jerks it around to influence economic activity then too the pair is an average interest rate for debt accumulated over many years so you might expect it to be slow moving as the fedfunds rate is essentially the lowest interest rate we have in the us i have to say the pair is really a lowball estimate probably a good average for government debt but even the red line is probably lower than the actual average interest rate on private sector debt posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fcm saturday february 25 2012 fcm the factor cost of money further review turns out the info i needed to figure the factor cost of money is right there in fred a quick search turned up four data series on the federal debt series maxvalue units description gfdebtn 14b millions federal government debt total public debt fygfd 14b billions gross federal debt fygfdpun 10b millions federal debt held by the public fgtcmdodns 10b billions total credit market debt owed by domestic nonfinancial sectors federal government the 4 billion difference between the first two series and the last two is the 4 billion of the federal debt held internally by parts of the federal government such as the social security administration the two series that end up something over 14b look similar to each other on the graph and the two that end up in the neighborhood of 10b look similar to each other graph 1 the federal debt four ways from sunday one of the two series that passes 14b is given in millions and the other in billions same is true f...
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