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y venn and policies of the venn overlap still with me read a matter of life and death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 there is one thing are you high seeing past the aberrations in debt to gdp where we stand shiller what drives these decade long swings in c an interesting footnote on the federal debt on raising interest rates the forgotten crash 1966 you wanna count what my how the story has changed interest cost by sector dolts for better theory keynes on excessive finance non financial in name only repetition helps anna zabai of bis on household debt us population back to 1929 households and hedge funds the eye that looks ahead to the safe course is cl two sides to every story not investment advice labor share as index and as percent inequality is a symptom wages and salaries arising from government employment never confuse them again tell me there s no price fixing going on here labor share there may be more here than meets the apparently they really do have economic concerns desire for wealth as such that is for the apparently i m out of the loop this goes all the way back to sumer in the third the point of maximum gain 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman showing posts with label stagflation show all posts showing posts with label stagflation show all posts wednesday february 22 2017 it was the changing behavior of inflation that created stagflation it s pretty simple really stagflation is not just inflation on the one side or stagnation on the other but both of them together that s according to iain macleod who created the word and the concept of stagflation according to wikipedia the word stagflation is a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation macleod took two separate and distinct words and jammed them together to make a new word to describe what he saw happening in the economy in the economy stagnation and inflation had been somehow jammed together so both were occurring at the same time i went to measuringworth for real and nominal gdp from 2015 back to 1800 annual data unfortunately but let s take a look this graph shows years when prices were rising and gdp was not graph 1 annual data suggesting times of stagflation stagflation is not common by this graph though it was not altogether new in 1965 when macleod gave it a name the graph shows annual data going back to 1800 a lot of people will tell you the data from back then is old unreliable and not worth bothering with that s okay they probably say the same about me i find it interesting that stagflation does not appear at all before the 1890s but does occur before world war two knowing this i want to take a look at the quarterly data quarterly data provides more detail than annual like a camera with more megapixels but the quarterly values begin in 1947 and provide no detail about earlier years this next graph shows the times since 1947 when rgdp growth was below half a percent and inflation was above 1 for change from previous quarter values graph 2 quarterly data suggesting times of stagflation my inflation measure is high given that 1 quarter to quarter is used i used strongly rising inflation to borrow macleod s phrase the graph shows an interesting result we see stagflation mostly in the 1970s the beginning middle and end of the 1970s plus a couple years just before the 1970s and three years after call those 15 years an era of stagflation if i raise the more than 1 inflation filter to more than 1 25 the narrow scattered bars disappear leaving only the first blue bar on the left and the big cluster at the 1970s that is when most of the inflation occurred the 1970s but that s not exactly the point the point is that inflation was high in the 70s and the economy was stagnant the occurrence of both stagnation and inflation defines stagflation peak trough 1969 12 01 1970 11 01 1973 11 01 1975 03 01 1980 01 01 1980 07 01 1981 07 01 1982 11 01 but then most of the stagnation in and about the 1970s occurred as the result of inflation fighting by the federal reserve there were four rapid fire recessions in that era and no other recessions between march of 1961 and june of 1990 the recessions were basically brought on by the fed which raised interest rates sharply to curb inflation according to paul krugman that means the stagflation we see in that era was the result anti inflation policy applied in a time of high inflation inflation was running high in those years and the policy response to inflation created stagnation the policy response did reduce inflation but not enough to make prices fall this meant we had both inflation and stagnation which by definition is stagflation the key point is that inflation was rising strongly anti inflation policy was the natural response the response created stagnation unless prices actually fell the result was stagflation i like this explanation but i think most people if you asked them about stagflation would say it happened because of the oil shocks the dramatic increases in the price of oil well okay the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 might explain the stagflation in the middle 70s and the stagflation at the end of the 70s but what about the stagflation at the beginning of the 70s that was before any oil shock yet there it is on graph 2 plain as day so the oil shock story does not fully explain stagflation the next graph shows the monthly change in prices as measured by the cpi the blue line does seem to move downward at or near times of recession so the rate of inflation goes down but in the stagflation era prices didn t go down on this graph the blue line going below zero indicates prices going down graph 3 percent change in the cpi monthly data over time between the 1940s and the 1960s the blue line goes below zero less and less in the latter 60s the blue line stops going below zero altogether till after the 1982 recession in those years prices did not go down so from the latter 1960s to 1982 any time the economy was stagnant we had stagflation the percent change in cpi did vary of course and the economy continued to have recessions but stagnation no longer coincided with price decline because prices no longer went down in the stagflation era prices went up a little more or went up a little less but did not go down this seems to me to be the simplest explanation of stagflation if this explanation is correct it was the changing behavior of inflation that made stagflation a reality instead of going up or down prices went up more or up less you can see it on the graph to explain this different behavior we should look at inflation before and during the stagflation era since the problem was that inflation didn t go below zero it didn t go low enough in other words we should look at the lows of inflation not the highs the trend of low values of graph 3 is persistently upward from the mid 1950s or earlier to 1980 as shown here graph 4 same as graph 3 up to 1988 blue the lows of the blue line red and overlapping three year averages of the red line black the problem that became stagflation began as gradually increasing inflation it was developing already the first time inflationary lows bottomed out at a higher level than they had before when was that first time the lows of the 1970s were higher than the low of the 1960s but the low of the 1960s was higher than the low of the mid 50s and i ll be damned if the low of the mid 50s wasn t higher than the low of the late 40s stagflation emerged late in the pattern of long term increase visible in the inflationary lows this is not a problem that began in 1974 it is not a problem that reduces to slow growth in as and it is not a problem that can be written off as inflation expectations it may however be attributed to a gradual long term cost push problem such as the one arising from the persistent growth of finance the stagflation era is a benchmark in economic history it is fully explained by the long term increase in inflationary lows that goes back 30 years or more before 1980 that long term increase is not fully explained by the price of oil in his 1957 lectures on prosperity without inflation arthur burns eloquently explained that economic policies since the enactment of the employment act of 1946 had introduced an inflationary bias in the u s economy athanasios orphanides the excel files usgdp_1800 2016 xls for graph 1 stagflation quarterly xls for graph 2 lows in percent change of cpi xls for graph 4 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels stagflation tuesday february 21 2017 the gory details google house of commons official report 77 million results the one i want is first on the list click house of commons hansard archives uk parliament at the house of commons hansard archives page you want historic hansard 1803 2005 using their nifty century and decade selector select the 20th century and then select the 1960s then select the year 1965 and month november and day the 17th from there i used ctrl f to search the page for econ and found economic affairs i clicked that and got a discussion in which iain macleod was involved from there a ctrl f search for stagf brings you to the pertinent quote now the quote from 1970 go to the historic hansard 1803 2005 page click the 20th century click the 1970s click 1970 click july click the 7th ctrl f search for econ click the one result ctrl f search for stagf three hits first hit chancellor of the exchequer mr iain macleod speaking the economy today shows two outstanding features on the one hand demand and activity are rather sluggish and unemployment is high compared with the post war average on the other hand there is the strongly ri...
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