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en treating it as the type of fact that always has been and always shall be world without end amen that s what i object to sloppy it is even when the reliance on credit was low you could easily say a large amount of economic activity is done on borrowed money sure and it would be true too however the reliance on credit varies sometimes the large amount is about equal to gdp sometimes it is three times gdp or more sometimes the large amount is five times the amount of money we don t have to pay back sometimes the large amount is 35 times that money the reliance on credit varies and economic performance varies as a result bury the virtual worlds phrase before the so or insist that money and credit are the same thing and you will never be able to understand the effect of varying the reliance on credit the effect on the economy as a whole the effect on economic performance the solution to the problem we cannot solve will be found in the place we do not look posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday december 18 2011 long trends in monetary phenomena on what basis then do the kondratieffites presume to bracket 1940 with 1896 and 1849 and 1789 as the terrible years of kondratieff troughs really on one and only one ground each of these years was a trough point for the index of wholesale prices all the other alleged confirmations of the kondratieff troughs were simply of prices or else of monetary phenomena reflected in prices rothbard three long data series are shown on graph 1 robert shiller s interest rate in black my debt per dollar in red and a 5 year moving average of the real interest rate in blue the blue is the one that makes the graph look crazy with all its ups and downs despite being averaged the black line shows the three peaks that i identify as three longwave peaks the red dpd starts later and shows only two peaks the red is composed of two separate lines actually because i have two mis matched sources for debt numbers historical statistics 1916 1970 and fred 1959 2010 you can see the same mis match in krugman also the red one is scaled down by half to bring it near the black and blue for comparison graph 1 the blue real interest line trends downward from the first black peak 1873 to the first black trough 1900 black and blue then move upward together if we ignore the exogenous v around the time of the first world war then black peaks 1921 and starts to fall while blue continues to rise blue finally peaks with red 1931 1933 then together these fall i second thought this late peak below everything reaches a bottom together around 1946 then all begin to move upward similar to the exogenous v of the first world war is an exogenous blue u from 1939 to 1951 bottoming in 46 and quite evidently related to the second world war i think i see a third exogenous anomaly from the mid 1960s to the early 1980s caused by the high inflation of that period if that is the case i think the natural trend of the blue line would follow the red line from say 1962 to 1982 after the black and blue peaks 1982 1984 both interest rate lines trend downward just as they did from 1873 to 1900 but not as they did after the second black peak in 1921 now i am wondering about the blue peak at 1931 in 1928 the blue line is still on the downward path of 1923 1937 after 1937 war created an anomalous low perhaps after 1928 depression created an anomalous high yes that makes sense the blue line differs from the black by the rate of inflation three high periods of inflation wwi wwii and the seventies created three anomalous lows and the one period of extreme deflation the great depression created an anomalous high if that is the case and if we ignore the anomalies perhaps there is a natural downward trend from 1923 to perhaps the mid 1940s this would correspond to the earlier decline pattern following 1873 and to the later decline pattern following 1982 i know there is a lot of if in this analysis treating the blue peak at 1931 as an inflation related anomaly rather than as trend we are left with a blue line that runs up and down in a pattern much like the black real and nominal interest rates moving together except for episodes of high inflation or high deflation makes sense i think granted there are almost as many anomaly years as normal trend years the period between the peaking of interest rates and the peaking of debt per dollar is a period of financial euphoria there is a lot of if in the above analysis does that weaken my case perhaps but i think it weaken it less to say as i say that these unique events disturb the pattern than it does to say as rothbard says that these events create the pattern i agree with rothbard that government actions sometimes create disturbances when i look at my graphs i can see those disturbances but i also see a natural wavelike pattern only temporarily disturbed and after each disturbance i see rapid return to the wavelike pattern the first world war for example created a sharp drop in real interest rates but after the war the real interest rate trend returned to the pattern it showed before the war the disturbance in every case is a price disturbance the natural pattern itself arises from the accumulation of financial cost and the accumulation of financial wealth these accumulations are monetary phenomena imbalances sometimes so severe that they topple governments posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday december 17 2011 egads http news research stlouisfed org 2011 12 new fred category structure new fred category structure we will soon be reorganizing the categories in our fred database during this process users will still be able to access and search for all series after these modifications fred will have 7 main categories national accounts population employment and labor markets production and business activity prices money banking and finance international data u s regional data several existing categories will be eliminated and series listed under those categories will be moved to more descriptive categories all email notifications for the eliminated categories will be updated for more clarification see the mockup of the changes we intend to complete this transformation by the end of this year posted by the arthurian at 7 08 pm 0 comments tfa suffix from yesterday graph 1 components of total financial assets i m wondering what the red line would look like if we separated household assets from the assets of nonprofit organizations i went to fred and did a search for balance sheet of households fred turned up a list of 47 data series every one of those series descriptions ends with the phrase balance sheet of households and nonprofit organizations sometimes the information you re looking for just isn t so easy to find reminds me of looking for data series on private debt posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday december 16 2011 tfa found total financial assets at fred by accident just now graph 1 components of total financial assets red household and nonprofit organizations blue nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business green nonfarm noncorporate business omitted are farm assets of course economists sure don t like them farmers also omitted financial business i m sure there s a good reason for that too and also the government perhaps because government cannot save i m wondering what the red line would look like if we separated household assets from the assets of nonprofit organizations nonprofit doesn t mean they don t make money it just means they don t pay income tax on the money that they make i added up the three components of tfa and showed the total in blue on a new graph graph 2 total financial assets blue and tcmdo red what to compare it to first thing that came to mind was tcmdo total credit market debt owed the distance between the lines was greater than i expected so i tweaked tcmdo by taking out federal debt held by the public and adding in gross federal debt the latter is a bigger number and should make the red line closer to the blue graph 3 tfa and tcmdo less net federal plus gross federal debt quite a bit closer i suppose the difference includes farm assets and foreign holdings maybe getting out of my depth here but i was running out of interesting things to do with tfa so i logged it graph 4 same as graph 3 but on a log scale now i have something to say just an impression really looks like the closer the lines are to each other the worse the economic performance the bigger the spread the better the lines were far apart in the 1950s and 60s during the golden age the lines came closer together during the troubled 1970s after a brief separation in the early 1980s the lines ran close together until the mid 1990s during the macroeconomic miracle of the latter 1990s the gap opened up again then the gap collapsed completely in two steps in the 2000s like i said out of my depth but i m wondering if there is some relation between this gap related behavior and the thing that is often called net financial assets posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments thursday december 15 2011 you pays your money or you saves it second graph from yesterday graph 1 savings relative to circulatings 1915 1932 here s the picture through 1936 the year keynes published his general theory graph 2 savings relative to circulatings 1915 1936 here s how the picture looks through 1945 the year franklin d roosevelt died graph 3 savings relative to circulatings 1915 1945 here s how it looks for the full data available in the historical statistics 1915 1970 graph 4 savings relative to circulatings 1915 1970 here s how it looks after combining graph 3 with the numbers from fred graph 5 savings relative to circulatings 1915 2010 pretty good mis match between the old and new numbers but i can t help that the black line and gray shading way down low on graph 4 show the same numbers as graph 3 in proportion to the fred numbers those four fred lines blue red green and orange follow the same color scheme as the first graph from yesterday which one to use your choice they all go up one of the big problems with policy is that it encourages savings we think it wise to find ways to enrich people by enabling them to pile up claims to enjoyment without them ever intending to enjoy those claims posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday december 14 2011 that sharp decline from me from yesterday savings relative to circulatings graph 1 starts low ends high looking at the red line non circulating mzm grows from equal to m1 to five times m1 by 2007 when a sharp decline sets in i m using 2007 as the peak before the crisis our great recession started late in 2007 i m setting up 2007 as comparable to 1929 the great depression started late in 1929 the first year that i have m1 and m2 money numbers for is 1915 18 years before 1929 18 years before 2007 is 1993 that s where my graphs will start 1915 and 1993 the last year that i have m1 and m2 money numbers for is 2010 three years after 2007 three years after 1929 is 1932 that s where my graphs will end i give you savings relative to circulatings for the two comparable periods 1915 1932 and 1993 2010 graph 2 graph 3 just at the end there see that sharp decline posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday december 13 2011 piling up claims to enjoyment from keynes from yesterday the maxims which are best calculated to enrich an individual by enabling him to pile up claims to enjoyment which he does not intend to exercise at any definite time savings relative to circulatings graph 1 starts low ends high blue is m2 red is mzm green is m3 in each case with circulating money m1 subtracted from it and the difference shown as a multiple of circulating money and for comparison the orange line is total debt tcmdo with circulating money mzm subtracted from it and the difference shown as a multiple of mzm looking at the red line non circulating mzm grows from equal to m1 in 1959 to five times m1 by 2007 when a sharp decline sets in a five fold increase these non circulatings are all of them measures of the claims to enjoyment that are not intended to be exercised at any definite time in other words they are measures of the absence of aggregate demand our economic policies for the period shown on the graph have propped up aggregate demand by increasing various measures of money and simultaneously undermined aggregate demand by increasing various encouragements to take those dollars out of circulation and save them posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 8 comments monday december 12 2011 the marginal propensity to consume i m a slow reader i don t do well with books like a game of thrones but my pace helps a lot when i m in the general theory my recommendation read the excerpt slowly and enjoy it keynes is wonderful from the conclusion of chapter 10 tgt ancient egypt was doubly fortunate and doubtless owed to this its fabled wealth in that it possessed two activities namely pyramid building as well as the search for the precious metals the fruits of which since they could not serve the needs of man by being consumed did not stale with abundance the middle ages built cathedrals and sang dirges two pyramids two masses for the dead are twice as good as one but not so two railways from london to york thus we are so sensible have schooled ourselves to so close a semblance of prudent financiers taking careful thought before we add to the financial burdens of posterity by building them houses to live in that we have no such easy escape from the sufferings of unemployment we have to accept them as an inevitable result of applying to the conduct of the state the maxims which are best calculated to enrich an individual by enabling him to pile up claims to enjoyment which he does not intend to exercise at any definite time your mind wandered didn t it start over and read slowly posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday december 11 2011 two of a kind i never get enough of quoting robert lucas in his irving fisher moment macroeconomics in this original sense has succeeded its central problem of depression prevention has been solved even when i m feeling just a tad guilty for focusing so much on one guy so i want to take this opportunity to share a similar quote from second economist in his economics textbook fourth edition 1958 paul samuelson imagines the words of a brave and careful economist of the day everywhere in the free world governments and central banks have shown they can win the battle of the slump but let us not be too arrogant samuelson warns the difference will be this the age old tendencies for the system to fluctuate will still be there but no longer will the world let them snowball into vast depressions or into galloping inflations sounds like the central problem of depression prevention has been solved posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom you can lead a horse to 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