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the new arthurian economics we are at the bottom now ready to go up the new arthurian economics challenging the premisses newer posts at econcrit start with the debt problem three views of it and the most important thing here s a longer look at the debt problem here s a short one on economic policy some surprising trends and a few unusual policy recommendations how d we get into this mess read policy venn and policies of the venn overlap still with me read a matter of life and death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 chain of causality how do you know money is tight sometimes i need an example volunteers total debt back to 1834 the exquisite tragedies of hinterland when would you know the australian recession of 2017 disappointing recommended reading ancient rome scattered thoughts on the private to public p2p further thoughts on the pictorial history of debt designing the future a pictorial history private and public debt something interesting this way comes at root it s always unintended consequences of po presidential politics in 1932 velocity and interest rates move together insights from an interest rate simulation prevention repeating the key point since i buried it yesterday the folk theory of economic malpractice the lucky number a small point what v is tfp understanding what is driving the slowdown i how did i not see this before hamilton on velocity we are at the bottom now ready to go up beyond sad must see february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman thursday march 3 2016 we are at the bottom now ready to go up the way to read the debt per dollar ratio is this it goes up until there is a big economic problem it goes down while that problem is being solved and it goes up again after the problem is solved graph 1 dollars of debt per dollar of spending money in the u s economy 1916 2015 the 1990 peak was created by policy rather than by problems it is important to note that when the downtrend ends and the uptrend begins the economy for a while is very very good for example the golden age of 1947 to 1974 or thereabouts and the macroeconomic miracle that started in the mid 1990s when the trend changes from downward to upward we can expect the economy to be very good for some time graph 2 all sectors debt blue and non federal debt red per dollar of m1 money 1959 2015 now look at the recent data at the right end of the graph debt per dollar has been coming down since 2008 it has come down pretty far not far enough in my opinion still the dpd lines are starting to flatten out both of them i think pretty soon they ll show up trend i think the economy is going to be very good pretty soon when i got the graph 2 data from fred i looked at just the last part of it since the fourth quarter of 2008 where the lines are going down i took the red line non federal debt relative to m1 money and added a trend line for it i used a polynomial trendline of order 2 and extended the trendline out 25 quarters six years plus past end of data this is how it came out graph 3 extending the 2008 2015 dpd trend out to 2021 the first quarter of 2016 where we are right now is number 30 on the x axis i ve got the trendline equation so the numbers show a dozen decimal places looks funny but i do that to get an accurate curve when i use the equation to re create the curve after i got the equation i made another graph like graph 2 but with the black trendline added in to create that trendline i used the equation shown on graph 3 this time i extended it out to 2030 have a look graph 4 dpd with trend out to 2030 we re right there right now dpd is ready to go up right now remember when the downtrend turns and an uptrend begins the economy for a while is very very good this is not going to be your typical anemic recovery this is going to be the full tilt rapid output growth rapid productivity growth high performance boom i can t promise you it ll last long because the level of debt is already very high but it ll be a good one while it lasts the excel file if only they would use the accelerated repayment of debt as their main tool for fighting inflation we could have that permanent quasi boom this is not investment advice and as i always say i don t make predictions i m just looking at a graph posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments the arthurian said the 1990 peak was created by policy rather than by problems i suppose you could say the peaks are always created by policy okay but in 1933 and 2007 policy makers didn t act until economic catastrophe had struck the debt per dollar graph lets you see catastrophe while it is still in development march 3 2016 at 5 03 am the arthurian said the way to read the debt per dollar ratio is this it goes up until there is a big economic problem it goes down while that problem is being solved and it goes up again after the problem is solved economic performance is exceptionally good at the beginning of the dpd uptrend but as dpd increases financial costs increase rising financial costs compete with wages and profit the factor costs as dpd increases therefore the financial sector improves at the expense of the productive sector output and living standards begin to falter the unfaltering performance of finance makes it increasingly appealing which boosts the growth of finance relative to the productive sector and further weakens the latter ultimately the productive sector can no longer sustain the cost of finance and crisis makes the problem evident in sum during the uptrend of dpd the economy starts out good but the economy weakens as long as the uptrend continues it is the sustained uptrend of dpd that creates the failure what was it minsky said the second theorem of the financial instability hypothesis is that over periods of prolonged prosperity the economy transits from financial relations that make for a stable system to financial relations that make for an unstable system march 3 2016 at 5 52 am the arthurian said not exactly what i predicted but the wall street journal of 10 october 2017 reports imf raises global economic outlook for this year and 2018 the international monetary fund s world economic outlook report forecasts growth of 3 6 this year and 3 7 next year for the us their graph shows 2 2 growth in 2017 and 2 3 in 2018 2018 should definitely be better than that october 12 2017 at 2 30 am the arthurian said at liberty street economics 28 november 2017 the new york fed dsge model forecast november 2017 they now predict 2 2 rgdp growth for 2017 up from 2 0 in august 1 8 growth in 2018 down from 1 9 2 1 in 2019 unchanged and 2 2 in 2020 unchanged c mon over 3 in 2018 november 28 2017 at 2 51 pm the arthurian said washington times the economy in 2018 3 jan 2018 subtitle it s ready to rocket and history shows why gee that sounds like vigor to me what i said also this quotable line from the article since last spring gdp growth has been much stronger than during the bush obama years as importantly the character and content of growth is changing since last spring since the spring of 2017 say since march of 2017 at the earliest in other words a year or more after i began predicting vigor also this kind of stuff it won t be a return to the easy prosperity of ward and june cleaver but a more robust economic environment and strong families do have mutually reinforcing qualities the critics of capitalism and traditional values fear to admit he s not doing econ really but he is predicting vigor washington times owner news world communications news world communications inc is an international news media corporation it was founded in new york city in 1976 by unification church founder and leader sun myung moon wikipedia january 4 2018 at 10 56 am post a comment newer post older post home subscribe to post comments atom you can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink stay thirsty my friends fred graphs federal reserve bank of st louis 2016 all rights reserved all fred graphs appear courtesy of federal reserve bank of st louis http research stlouisfed org fred2 the st louis fed
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