Meta tags:
Headings (most frequently used words):
2013, the, new, arthurian, economics, october, debt, accumulation, google, translate, blog, archive, links, labels, monday, 21, saturday, sunday, august, 18, wednesday, april, 24, expectations, another, oddity, in, annals, of, capacity, utilization, what, else, could, we, reasonably, do, time, doesn, run, backwards,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (117), expectations (42), and (41), debt (28), that (22), for (16), you (12), def (12), july (11), may (11), #october (11), graph (10), economic (10), growth (10), april (10), #august (10), january (10), what (9), february (9), march (9), june (9), september (9), november (9), december (9), arthurian (8), this (8), from (8), than (8), with (8), capacity (8), all (7), but (7), posts (7), economics (7), are (7), there (7), cost (7), time (7), economy (7), not (7), money (7), new (7), policy (7), inflation (7), results (6), which (6), great (6), long (6), about (6), gdp (6), will (6), 2013 (6), have (6), spending (6), labels (5), comments (5), employment (5), existing (5), was (5), last (5), how (5), would (5), more (5), credit (5), louis (4), fred (4), federal (4), can (4), posted (4), think (4), reagan (4), didn (4), out (4), only (4), far (4), they (4), work (4), continue (4), one (4), reasons (4), change (4), years (4), our (4), red (4), recession (4), increase (4), utilization (4), investment (4), data (4), here (4), fed (3), best (3), put (3), general (3), theory (3), output (3), rule (3), based (3), economists (3), depend (3), standard (3), big (3), had (3), since (3), get (3), because (3), like (3), source (3), rate (3), consumer (3), has (3), when (3), these (3), except (3), economist (3), way (3), two (3), john (3), could (3), reflection (3), actual (3), state (3), back (3), facts (3), into (3), interest (3), rgdp (3), did (3), vigor (3), know (3), rates (3), showing (3), timeline (3), productivity (3), problem (3), household (3), financial (3), crisis (3), labor (3), share (3), better (3), page (3), read (3), blog (3), graphs (2), reserve (2), bank (2), 2016 (2), org (2), want (2), some (2), maynard (2), expectation (2), conditions (2), everything (2), come (2), first (2), set (2), high (2), spot (2), before (2), 1985 (2), look (2), marcus (2), cannot (2), wonder (2), 1932 (2), real (2), production (2), usually (2), much (2), between (2), producer (2), both (2), form (2), pay (2), supply (2), them (2), after (2), period (2), guided (2), relevant (2), cause (2), too (2), being (2), waste (2), large (2), part (2), base (2), their (2), most (2), realised (2), definite (2), expecting (2), chapter (2), really (2), does (2), almost (2), doesn (2), run (2), backwards (2), people (2), confident (2), future (2), such (2), says (2), improve (2), other (2), early (2), again (2), disappointed (2), good (2), keynes (2), else (2), reasonably (2), behavior (2), affairs (2), indefinitely (2), specific (2), expect (2), practice (2), truth (2), convention (2), though (2), course (2), simply (2), very (2), less (2), issue (2), situation (2), term (2), brief (2), 1982 (2), followed (2), blue (2), fast (2), might (2), faster (2), use (2), vigorous (2), bloom (2), looks (2), profits (2), click (2), longer (2), label (2), show (2), 2010 (2), 2018 (2), taxes (2), sumner (2), price (2), non (2), loops (2), laffer (2), curve (2), krugman (2), jerry (2), historical (2), banking (2), five (2), civilization (2), push (2), wealth (2), 1966 (2), interesting (2), dave (2), ross (2), image (2), google (2), translate (2), html (2), blogger (2), charts (2), tax (2), funds (2), pdf (2), apparently (2), story (2), stand (2), thing (2), venn (2), rights, reserved, appear, courtesy, http, research, stlouisfed, fred2, lead, horse, water, make, him, drink, stay, thirsty, friends, subscribe, atom, home, older, down, ever, seen, while, subject, round, excerpts, determining, recent, world, depends, getting, now, easy, see, peak, just, got, electing, ronald, everybody, stinks, update, coincidence, showed, pointed, low, wrote, yes, works, surge, optimism, pessimism, rather, fundamentals, trend, anomaly, bottom, associated, fdr, nomination, acceptance, speech, nunes, yesterday, 1975, purpose, ultimately, satisfying, elapses, however, sometimes, incurring, costs, view, purchase, ultimate, meanwhile, entrepreneur, including, investor, description, consumers, prepared, ready, directly, indirectly, elapse, lengthy, choice, produce, processes, occupy, upon, various, amount, firms, offer, sale, modification, subsequent, complicated, whenever, productive, process, started, moreover, circumstances, substantially, unchanged, day, next, accordingly, sensible, producers, assumption, recently, novo, actually, always, precede, effect, unless, believe, many, populations, accurate, macro, variables, fully, understand, present, implications, those, act, rationally, platonic, understanding, steve, roth, wednesday, awkward, line, buried, quote, seems, something, missing, ought, include, came, anyway, temporarily, boom, partly, driven, hopes, happen, were, wasn, promised, shows, lot, seem, remember, impressive, aberration, presumed, power, paragraphs, assume, tacitly, agreed, fall, essence, quite, lies, assuming, foolish, forming, attach, weight, matters, uncertain, reasonable, therefore, considerable, degree, feel, somewhat, even, decisively, knowledge, vague, scanty, reason, enter, sense, disproportionately, formation, usual, take, project, modified, extent, spike, interval, excitement, any, attempt, serious, discussion, transmission, mechanisms, met, magic, wand, behaviour, unlearning, sunday, uncharacteristically, unusually, small, increased, enough, grow, particularly, later, least, maybe, allowed, immediately, moderation, bout, brought, end, perhaps, disappointment, disappointing, certain, extinguisher, reality, corporate, relative, bigger, picture, another, oddity, annals, saturday, michael, leddy, monday, copyright, arthur, shipman, zoho, withering, shoots, fraud, abuse, verdoorn, urgency, unsustainable, umic, ulc, tot, tongue, cheek, don, tint, knob, side, decline, shift, transaction, difference, taylor, symmetry, deception, stimulus, star, trek, deviation, stagflation, spreadsheeting, special, report, slack, simulated, evidence, simulacron, serfdom, sequence, scott, reviews, reduction, green, reading, writing, questions, printing, controls, predicting, pfi, parameters, oil, linear, tools, moving, average, motives, multiplier, mmt, milton, friedman, military, medium, account, math, problems, matched, fekete, malaise, variable, limits, ego, captain, introduction, iceberg, couldn, sleep, humor, say, hover, craft, hodrick, prescott, hoarding, revisionism, phase, calc, gross, domestic, gresham, law, gold, shortage, gds, gang8, fun, mpc, full, disclosure, free, era, fpi, forget, digit, words, financialization, final, feedback, fcm, fallacy, composition, failure, embrace, factors, evolution, excuse, erosion, eroc, forces, echoes, dpd, disarray, demand, pull, deflation, outside, limit, reissue, inside, equilibrium, activity, bad, bulge, recovery, context, debasement, cycle, chronicles, efficiency, coping, coinage, civ, calculating, bullard, earthquake, downs, behavioral, finte, greater, artish, adjusting, accidental, discoveries, accelerated, repayment, little, call, argument, 400k, smoothing, revision, 1986, 2000, 1970s, calculation, contact, website, your, stuff, tufte, analysis, normalized, scaled, mental, workout, numerical, ignorance, kardi, teknomo, jim, organize, supreme, court, jester, prac, vin, faq, nice, bloogger, link, within, color, codes, sentral, test, help, www, schools, menu, host, tips, spoiler, theory2life, irrational, unsettling, broad, oak, redonomics, thinking, margin, year, old, freshman, dolor, rants, dredd, mayday, books, jbpeebles, addicts, anon, frozen, arctic, tundra, blended, purple, candid, troublesome, thought, action, nextblog, skeptical, optimist, worthwhile, canadian, father, tim, duy, cybereconomics, crises, businomics, ecometry, william, hummell, flavianopolis, aquinum, razor, crystal, bull, williams, sgs, econompic, secret, mark, wieczorek, perot, historicalstatistics, sources, irs, corp, 2006, dates, top, usgovernmentspending, economagic, stock, 1947, flow, bls, jobs, bea, accounts, measuringworth, statistical, abstracts, gavin, kennedy, mason, paul, pages, scribd, links, 2009, 361, 571, 2011, 476, 2012, 412, 374, 2014, 283, 2015, 318, 274, 2017, point, maximum, gain, goes, sumer, third, loop, desire, concerns, meets, tell, fixing, going, never, confuse, wages, salaries, arising, government, inequality, symptom, index, percent, sides, every, advice, eye, ahead, safe, households, hedge, population, 1929, anna, zabai, bis, repetition, helps, name, excessive, finance, dolts, sector, changed, wanna, count, forgotten, crash, raising, footnote, shiller, drives, decade, swings, where, seeing, past, aberrations, archive, versions, model, accumulating, hurts, mine, brings, preview, window, template, button, open, introductory, post, googledocs, file, alone, php, version, accumulation, art, start, three, few, unusual, mess, still, overview, download, matter, life, death, policies, overlap, recommendations, surprising, trends, short, important, views, newer, econcrit, challenging, premisses,
Text of the page (random words):
the new arthurian economics expectations the new arthurian economics challenging the premisses newer posts at econcrit start with the debt problem three views of it and the most important thing here s a longer look at the debt problem here s a short one on economic policy some surprising trends and a few unusual policy recommendations how d we get into this mess read policy venn and policies of the venn overlap still with me read a matter of life and death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 there is one thing are you high seeing past the aberrations in debt to gdp where we stand shiller what drives these decade long swings in c an interesting footnote on the federal debt on raising interest rates the forgotten crash 1966 you wanna count what my how the story has changed interest cost by sector dolts for better theory keynes on excessive finance non financial in name only repetition helps anna zabai of bis on household debt us population back to 1929 households and hedge funds the eye that looks ahead to the safe course is cl two sides to every story not investment advice labor share as index and as percent inequality is a symptom wages and salaries arising from government employment never confuse them again tell me there s no price fixing going on here labor share there may be more here than meets the apparently they really do have economic concerns desire for wealth as such that is for the apparently i m out of the loop this goes all the way back to sumer in the third the point of maximum gain 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman showing posts with label expectations show all posts showing posts with label expectations show all posts monday october 21 2013 expectations source michael leddy posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels expectations saturday october 5 2013 another oddity in the annals of capacity utilization graph 1 growth rates of rgdp blue and capacity utilization red click the graph for a bigger picture in a longer time period the 1982 recession was followed by an uncharacteristically large increase in rgdp growth blue and an unusually small increase in capacity utilization red hm if capacity increased fast enough rgdp might increase faster than we could put the new capacity to use i wonder did capacity grow particularly fast after the 1982 recession by the standard of later years at least it did graph 2 growth rate of investment so maybe that s it a vigorous bloom of new capacity allowed economic growth to increase faster than capacity utilization but the vigorous bloom did not last there followed almost immediately a great moderation of investment spending it looks to me as if the brief bout of vigor was brought on by great expectations and the end of the vigor by expectations disappointed and perhaps we know the source of that disappointment disappointing profits graph 3 corporate profits relative to gdp there is no more certain extinguisher of expectations than reality posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels expectations sunday august 18 2013 what else could we reasonably do on expectations from unlearning economics any attempt at a serious discussion of transmission mechanisms is met with expectations as if expectations are a magic wand and not simply a reflection of the actual behaviour of the economy it s awkward when a great line is buried in such a way that when you quote it it seems something is missing and you ought to include the part that came before but anyway what ue says is expectations are a reflection of the actual behavior of the economy expectations depend on economic conditions if you want to improve expectations you have to improve the economy i do think it can temporarily work the other way i think the big boom we had early in the reagan years was partly expectations driven people had big hopes graph 1 the red spike early in the reagan years a brief interval of excitement it didn t last and it didn t happen again expectations were disappointed because the economy wasn t as good as reagan promised it would be as the graph shows but a lot of economists seem to remember the one impressive aberration and base too much of their work on the presumed power of expectations two paragraphs from chapter 12 of the general theory of employment interest and money by john maynard keynes the state of long term expectation it would be foolish in forming our expectations to attach great weight to matters which are very uncertain it is reasonable therefore to be guided to a considerable degree by the facts about which we feel somewhat confident even though they may be less decisively relevant to the issue than other facts about which our knowledge is vague and scanty for this reason the facts of the existing situation enter in a sense disproportionately into the formation of our long term expectations our usual practice being to take the existing situation and to project it into the future modified only to the extent that we have more or less definite reasons for expecting a change in practice we have tacitly agreed as a rule to fall back on what is in truth a convention the essence of this convention though it does not of course work out quite so simply lies in assuming that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely except in so far as we have specific reasons to expect a change expectations are a reflection of the actual behavior of the economy we assume that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely except in so far as we have specific reasons to expect a change what else could we reasonably do posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments labels expectations wednesday april 24 2013 time doesn t run backwards this is the best put down i think i ve ever seen of expectations in economics from steve roth cause really does almost always precede effect time doesn t run backwards unless you believe like many economists that people populations 1 form both confident and accurate expectations about future macro variables 2 fully understand the present implications of those expectations and 3 act rationally as a platonic economist would based on that understanding but while i m on the subject of expectations i want to round up some excerpts from maynard from the general theory chapter 5 expectation as determining output and employment all production is for the purpose of ultimately satisfying a consumer time usually elapses however and sometimes much time between the incurring of costs by the producer with the consumer in view and the purchase of the output by the ultimate consumer meanwhile the entrepreneur including both the producer and the investor in this description has to form the best expectations he can as to what the consumers will be prepared to pay when he is ready to supply them directly or indirectly after the elapse of what may be a lengthy period and he has no choice but to be guided by these expectations if he is to produce at all by processes which occupy time it is upon these various expectations that the amount of employment which the firms offer will depend the actually realised results of the production and sale of output will only be relevant to employment in so far as they cause a modification of subsequent expectations it would be too complicated to work out the expectations de novo whenever a productive process was being started and it would moreover be a waste of time since a large part of the circumstances usually continue substantially unchanged from one day to the next accordingly it is sensible for producers to base their expectations on the assumption that the most recently realised results will continue except in so far as there are definite reasons for expecting a change so the rule is that expectations are based on existing conditions or recent results for the world s economists everything depends on expectations for me expectations depend on the results we re getting now which come first easy results come first results set the standard graph 1 us real gdp growth rate since 1975 see that high spot there that big peak just before 1985 that was expectations that s what we got from electing ronald reagan everybody had great expectations but it didn t last look at the graph everything since 1985 stinks update 4 03 am by coincidence marcus yesterday showed this graph graph 2 source marcus nunes he pointed out the low spot in it and wrote i wonder if the july 1932 bottom is associated with fdr s nomination acceptance speech on july 2 1932 yes to that i think that s how expectations works you get a great surge of optimism or pessimism that cannot last long cannot last because it s based on expectations rather than on economic fundamentals like cost you get a trend anomaly and that s about it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels expectations older posts home subscribe to posts atom you can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink stay thirsty my friends fred graphs federal reserve bank of st louis 2016 all rights reserved all fred graphs appear courtesy of federal reserve bank of st louis http research stlouisfed org fred2 the st louis fed
|
