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n kitchen floor all wet total u s debt turning off the faucet cutting federal spending broken pipe policies that encourage the reliance on credit posted by the arthurian at 4 06 am 0 comments saturday november 27 2010 under every rock a critter it s amazing what you can find on the internet google and ye shall find federal taxes relative to gdp are remarkably stable tracking from 17 2 percent to 18 5 percent of gdp over six decades at 14 8 percent for 2009 and 2010 they were the lowest since the recession year of 1959 at the end of the eisenhower administration nobody would believe it i don t think i m gonna check it myself the excerpt is from reality of federal spending doesn t fit myth at twin cities dot com pioneer press it seems to be attributed to st paul economist and writer edward lotterman to me the post has a political feel to it not my cup of tea but i was looking for something on the level of taxes and there it was additional search results free by 50 provides graphs including one that pretty much confirms the twin cities excerpt above economicsjunkie provides a graph that doesn t agree after a while i figured out that this graph shows total federal state and local government taxes the two previous links consider only federal taxes thus the difference at first blush junkie s two graphs expenses and receipts both appear to be continuously climbing looking again one can see that from 1970 to 1993 more or less total government receipts as a percent of gdp briefly stabilize at around 28 i always look for details like that posted by the arthurian at 4 04 am 0 comments friday november 26 2010 i blogger and yes there it is i m clicking it now nice posted by the arthurian at 8 50 am 2 comments labels tot some days i wake up with thoughts like these put lawyers in congress and they make laws no one can read put finance people in charge of policy and they cannot see debt as a problem posted by the arthurian at 4 17 am 0 comments thursday november 25 2010 this is too good to pass up from economicsjunkie happy thanksgiving posted by the arthurian at 4 15 am 3 comments wednesday november 24 2010 making nice to krugman i pick on paul krugman a lot not because he s bad but because he s good that s not an apology paul but it s as close as you re gonna get anyway i ran across an article of his on slate posted in 1998 if you can believe that like lots of economics it s part interesting and part wrong but he does say this you may tell me that it s not that simple that during the previous boom businessmen made bad investments and banks made bad loans well fine junk the bad investments and write off the bad loans write off the bad loans i ve said it before but the fed now owns a huge chunk of bad loans the result of a rescue mission to get those loans out of the private sector well they re out but people are still trying to make payments on those loans we got the bad assets out of the economy but not the bad liabilities that s why the economy cannot recover if the fed would just write off the bad loans the economy would recover and yes paul you said it before i did posted by the arthurian at 4 13 am 2 comments tuesday november 23 2010 making the wrong argument krugman argues over and over that we need more government spending that we should not worry about government debt that government debt will bring recovery in my recent series on debt beginning here i have shown that government debt is not the debt that is holding our economy down private debt holds us down note that there is no mention of government debt in this sentence private debt holds us down increases in government debt have not brought recovery not yet and not since the 1970s we never really recovered from that 1974 recession why because private debt holds us down krugman is right increases in government debt should bring recovery but the other guys are right too increases in government debt don t bring recovery so are we gonna argue about this until we end up in a dark age or are we gonna take a step back and try to see what s missing from the discussion what s missing is any consideration of private debt posted by the arthurian at 4 28 am 1 comments monday november 22 2010 ge capital you know they advertise on the sunday morning talk shows ge s tax return is the largest the irs deals with each year some 24 000 pages if printed out its annual report filed with the securities and exchange commission weighs in at more than 700 pages inside you ll find that ge in effect consists of two divisions general electric capital and everything else the everything else maker of engines power plants tv shows and the like would have paid a 22 tax rate if it was a standalone company it s ge capital that keeps the overall tax bill so low over the last two years ge capital has displayed an uncanny ability to lose lots of money in the u s posting a 6 5 billion loss in 2009 and make lots of money overseas a 4 3 billion gain not only do the u s losses balance out the overseas gains but ge can defer taxes on that overseas income indefinitely it s the tax benefit of overseas operations that is the biggest reason why multinationals end up with lower tax rates than the rest of us as a result figures tax economist martin sullivan companies are keeping some 28 billion a year out of the clutches of the u s treasury by engaging in so called transfer pricing arrangements where say microsoft s msft news people overseas subsidiaries license software to its u s parent company in return for handsome royalties that get taxed at those lower overseas rates congress is in charge of the tax code what ge gets away with is congress s doing posted by the arthurian at 4 25 am 0 comments sunday november 21 2010 debt deleveraging and more debt krugman of 18 november introduces his new 32 page pdf debt deleveraging and the liquidity trap and offers an informal summary of the paper as well in this post i review excerpts from the informal summary the excerpts are in white boxes here and my remarks as always are on the parchment sharply rising debt it s widely argued set the stage for the crisis and the overhang of debt continues to act as a drag on recovery absolutely and i would say that as long as debt is the problem debt must be our focus and debt is the problem we must work to resolve despite the prominence of debt in popular discussion of our current economic difficulties and the long tradition of invoking debt as a key factor in major economic contractions there is a surprising lack of models especially models of monetary and fiscal policy of economic policy that correspond at all closely to the concerns about debt that dominate practical discourse see it halfway through this excerpt krugman s eye drifts from debt to models of debt even now much analysis including my own is done in terms which by definition can t deal with the consequences of the fact that some people are debtors while others are creditors really that s just sad you d think it would be intuitive this reminds me of something maynard said it is fortunate that the workers though unconsciously are instinctively more reasonable economists than the classical school you knew didn t you being a debtor is not the same as being a creditor you know the consequences are different if economists don t know it maybe that s because they are looking at models okay to the crux of the matter first krugman sets the stage in the current policy debate debt is often invoked as a reason to dismiss calls for expansionary fiscal policy as a response to unemployment you can t solve a problem created by debt by running up even more debt say the critics households borrowed too much say many people now you want the government to borrow even more krugman rejects the critics view then he adds it follows that the level of debt matters only because the distribution of that debt matters because highly indebted players face different constraints from players with low debt well okay so he needed a model to see it at least he can see it now the distribution of debt matters the consequences are different good job paul but then we get to krugman s next thought and this means that all debt isn t created equal which is why borrowing by some actors now can help cure problems created by excess borrowing by other actors in the past all debt isn t created equal this is krugman s justification for increasing the federal deficit it s pathetic and who are these some actors that can cure problems created by the excessive borrowing of other actors why the federal government of course i don t do models i don t know how to make a model but i know how to look at the numbers and see what they show it ain t rocket science maybe it ain t even economics but the math is simple enough and the math tells me my eyes are on debt in the previous post and my good eye tells me that the apparently monstrous federal debt is nothing compared to the size of our private debt krugman knows debt is a problem but his model tells him it s okay to make the public debt bigger my simple arithmetic says don t make the small debt bigger make the big debt smaller for the overhang of debt continues to be a drag on recovery and debt is the problem that we must solve posted by the arthurian at 6 37 pm 2 comments it s not what you thought based on my post of november 15th a couple years back there was a flurry of excitement over a graph showing that total u s debt had reached 350 of gdp this graph breaks that 350 into its public and private components the public debt shown here includes debt of federal state and local governments the trend in government debt relative to gdp the black line is essentially flat from 1960 until the paulson crisis of 2008 and all that time private debt the red line was climbing so if the increase in debt relative to gdp is a problem the fault lies entirely with the private sector for notes on sources refer to this google docs spreadsheet for the graph shown here refer to this excel file for data and calculations refer to either file posted by the arthurian at 7 10 am 7 comments symmetry for some reason i don t clearly understand a lot of people seem to think that printing money causes inflation but using credit doesn t but if global economic deleveraging the shared desire to reduce debt asap threatens to cause deflation then surely global economic leveraging credit use and the creation of debt could have contributed to inflation or probably contributed to inflation or must have contributed to inflation increasing debt contributes to inflation decreasing debt contributes to deflation it is simple symmetry related but irrelevant to the topic of this post deleveraging is deflationary because it draws money out of circulation if we can reduce debt without drawing money from the spending stream it will not be deflationary my proposal to print money and use it to pay down debt is such a plan oh and it won t cause inflation because the new money is destroyed when the debt is repaid posted by the arthurian at 4 20 am 0 comments saturday november 20 2010 catechism questions q what is the problem with debt a the problem is cost q what is the problem with paying it off a the problem is cost q when does debt become a problem a debt becomes a problem when not paying it off becomes too costly posted by the arthurian at 4 14 am 2 comments friday november 19 2010 a look at the debt problem 4 people used to think we could balance the budget by getting the economy to grow that was the whole notion underlying supply side economics but people these days some of em more and more of em seem to doubt we can ever grow like that again much time has gone by many people have never known a good economy as jude wanniski said in reader s digest feb 1995 p 49 you have to have lived in the 1950s and 1960s to have experienced a good economy it s 15 years since he said that too much time has gone by it must be gradual but in 10 years we could be on top of the world instead of simply hoping that the great sluggish will one day be over my solution to get the economy going again is to print money and use it to pay off debt that s because i think debt is the problem but not the federal debt private debt is the problem our debt yours and mine is keeping us down and keeping our economy down our fault no it is the fault of economic policy bad policy and i say let policy pay let the federal reserve pay and let congress sit on their hands and be quiet posted by the arthurian at 4 08 am 2 comments thursday november 18 2010 a look at the debt problem 3 not the changes of direction but the direction of those changes government debt increases during recessions until the economy starts to grow private debt increases during periods of growth until growth cannot continue when a recession slows the economy private sector debt growth slows when the economy recovers private sector debt growth resumes with every recession public cfpy increases and private cfpy decreases dare i say it the graphs seem to show it is private sector failure that leads to public sector debt growth anomalies there are very few times that the above generalizations do not hold 1 the debt trends appear to change in the middle of the 1991 recession this would directly contradict my generalizations but the problem here is that the recession bar is inaccurate according to the st louis fed the 1991 recession started in july of 1990 and ended in march of 1991 so the recession ended early in 1991 by these dates the cfpy graphs show debt trends that fit my generalizations the recession bar for the 1991 recession makes it look like the recession lasted from january to december of 1991 this is the source of the discrepancy for more on this see my jealousy bars post 2 a peak is visible around 1966 67 on the public cfpy graph but there is no corresponding recession ah but there is almost as paul kasriel put it the lei contracted on a year over year basis from q4 1966 through q2 1967 although no recession was declared by the nber however unofficially this period was referred to as the mini recession of 1966 67 the fed quickly began cutting the funds rate in december of 1966 thereby averting an official recession recession was averted but it was in the works the generalizations hold posted by the arthurian at 4 16 am 0 comments wednesday november 17 2010 a look at the debt problem 2 this post is a follow up to mine of 15 november a further look at the changes in debt took the debt numbers used for my november 15th graphs got rid of the oldest mismatched stuff then figured change from previous year calculations for public and private debt made a graph of that but cfpy numbers vary a lot showing public and private on the same graph made a messy picture i ended up with two graphs graph 1 cfpy private portion of total debt graph 2 cfpy public portion of total debt does size matter the first thing i see in these graphs is that the ups and downs of public debt graph 2 are much bigger ...
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