Meta tags:
Headings (most frequently used words):
june, 2011, the, in, and, debt, thursday, wednesday, don, it, of, krugman, my, world, red, blue, new, arthurian, economics, tuesday, monday, sunday, saturday, friday, evidence, this, long, up, not, style, on, clinton, accumulation, google, translate, blog, archive, links, labels, 30, 29, 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 23, 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, yes, if, you, call, interest, really, fewer, by, half, breakout, bearwatch, gedankenexperiment, couldn, interrupt, video, way, blame, obama, for, bush, 2009, deficit, ball, twine, why, is, saying, twenty, cent, trends, must, read, pce, cpi, term, screw, follow, focusing, evolution, thoughtful, from, michael, hudson, at, gang8, point, information, oh, thumbs, down, clarity, ratio, to, money, can, comment, there, so, ll, post, here, singin, different, tune, no, fate, but, what, we, make, as, defines, too, much, better, handle, solution, are, taxes, high, or, low,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (773), and (240), that (188), debt (140), for (89), but (80), money (75), you (69), this (68), not (61), from (59), have (54), tax (53), with (52), there (51), are (48), graph (44), economy (43), what (41), then (41), line (39), one (38), can (37), growth (36), was (35), federal (34), red (34), they (34), more (34), comments (33), #arthurian (33), would (33), think (32), than (32), blue (31), taxes (31), posted (30), post (30), krugman (30), reserve (29), june (29), economic (28), problem (28), will (27), which (26), out (26), all (25), first (25), rate (24), like (24), when (24), much (24), financial (24), interest (24), how (23), don (23), say (23), 2011 (23), make (22), policy (22), just (21), total (21), trend (20), has (20), our (20), high (20), dollar (20), about (19), long (19), percent (19), reserves (19), bank (18), after (18), were (18), new (18), income (18), rates (18), into (17), keen (17), look (17), years (17), really (17), time (17), equilibrium (16), other (16), reduce (16), may (15), thing (15), see (15), does (15), economics (15), get (15), here (15), amount (15), created (15), half (14), been (14), now (14), only (14), year (14), well (14), excessive (14), world (14), government (14), credit (14), some (13), since (13), why (13), crisis (13), way (13), them (13), analysis (13), inflation (13), corporate (13), hudson (13), fred (12), take (12), thoma (12), his (12), two (12), numbers (12), same (12), back (12), could (12), had (12), know (12), down (12), people (12), deposits (12), recession (12), zero (12), multiplier (12), increase (12), required (12), november (12), spending (12), private (12), def (12), graphs (11), economists (11), their (11), higher (11), because (11), evidence (11), decline (11), deficit (11), gdp (11), relative (11), loans (11), sector (11), cost (11), january (11), model (10), says (10), lines (10), writes (10), want (10), use (10), again (10), data (10), must (10), between (10), still (10), let (10), things (10), fiscal (10), gross (10), top (10), less (10), read (10), comment (10), ratio (10), per (10), second (10), spend (10), september (10), trends (10), october (10), december (10), yesterday (9), goes (9), doesn (9), never (9), system (9), something (9), domestic (9), last (9), far (9), also (9), bill (9), mitchell (9), should (9), pay (9), save (9), obama (9), february (9), march (9), april (9), july (9), august (9), any (8), right (8), both (8), actual (8), off (8), better (8), future (8), where (8), looking (8), even (8), its (8), always (8), who (8), average (8), banks (8), currency (8), end (8), actually (8), wrong (8), process (8), done (8), requirement (8), dollars (8), every (8), real (8), issue (8), those (8), rent (8), static (7), picture (7), put (7), good (7), saying (7), these (7), shows (7), different (7), most (7), little (7), maybe (7), budget (7), many (7), wealthy (7), among (7), changes (7), recent (7), blog (7), deposit (7), fractional (7), before (7), lend (7), supply (7), her (7), clinton (7), too (7), point (7), options (7), himself (7), 2009 (7), 1990 (7), came (6), conclusion (6), left (6), using (6), made (6), dynamic (6), relation (6), yet (6), problems (6), until (6), everything (6), paid (6), monetary (6), thinks (6), three (6), lower (6), big (6), cut (6), exactly (6), unemployment (6), low (6), very (6), reading (6), keynes (6), context (6), quote (6), did (6), 1974 (6), golden (6), age (6), few (6), difference (6), possible (6), faster (6), each (6), kept (6), another (6), customer (6), number (6), draw (6), work (6), your (6), key (6), looked (6), seems (6), while (6), debts (6), page (6), cause (6), role (6), longer (6), focus (6), marginal (6), perhaps (6), kelton (6), yellow (6), mosler (6), fed (5), posts (5), simple (5), interesting (5), ceiling (5), matter (5), past (5), myself (5), important (5), concept (5), yes (5), mean (5), reason (5), such (5), cannot (5), according (5), change (5), conclusions (5), day (5), term (5), effective (5), republicans (5), corporations (5), america (5), 2008 (5), argument (5), times (5), said (5), mid (5), 1980 (5), 2000 (5), grew (5), original (5), bad (5), joke (5), getting (5), going (5), try (5), completely (5), tell (5), showing (5), call (5), eight (5), didn (5), create (5), lends (5), adjusted (5), creation (5), cent (5), incomes (5), side (5), base (5), profits (5), fygfd (5), agree (5), overhead (5), place (5), stuff (5), michael (5), thought (5), without (5), paul (5), largely (5), includes (5), deficits (5), surprising (5), downtrend (5), louis (4), horse (4), hover (4), upon (4), seen (4), approach (4), rising (4), below (4), old (4), making (4), previous (4), mine (4), hit (4), series (4), means (4), today (4), rise (4), above (4), introduction (4), keep (4), thinking (4), reaching (4), importance (4), starting (4), including (4), bartlett (4), statutory (4), almost (4), vertical (4), 1947 (4), flat (4), troubles (4), gold (4), during (4), parallel (4), looks (4), changed (4), run (4), close (4), lot (4), piece (4), explanation (4), weeks (4), come (4), 100 (4), lending (4), small (4), gave (4), middle (4), equal (4), started (4), step (4), question (4), whether (4), occurred (4), five (4), depression (4), order (4), market (4), requirements (4), banking (4), 000 (4), persuading (4), thumbs (4), 2010 (4), based (4), accumulation (4), large (4), print (4), couldn (4), whole (4), sure (4), brought (4), being (4), relatively (4), savings (4), recovery (4), decade (4), option (4), investment (4), trillion (4), annual (4), twenty (4), sees (4), majority (4), either (4), part (4), style (4), wealth (4), green (4), period (4), 1986 (4), tom (4), profit (4), writing (3), steve (3), sets (3), wikipedia (3), via (3), dynamics (3), natural (3), against (3), compared (3), others (3), eventually (3), least (3), office (3), makes (3), simply (3), show (3), exists (3), talk (3), though (3), spreadsheet (3), row (3), remaining (3), doing (3), choose (3), size (3), follows (3), canadian (3), argued (3), ago (3), general (3), modern (3), added (3), neither (3), nor (3), sense (3), objective (3), understand (3), along (3), bring (3), mind (3), cube (3), broad (3), growing (3), accumulating (3), example (3), wednesday (3), bruce (3), white (3), house (3), treasury (3), congress (3), president (3), measure (3), revenues (3), needs (3), comparison (3), ways (3), richest (3), deductions (3), capital (3), plus (3), revenue (3), believe (3), anything (3), raise (3), stop (3), entirely (3), thursday (3), 1970 (3), rapidly (3), around (3), went (3), 1971 (3), beginning (3), runs (3), 1990s (3), balance (3), 2001 (3), shooting (3), slow (3), curve (3), 1970s (3), near (3), drops (3), happened (3), together (3), gets (3), loan (3), happen (3), bar (3), away (3), available (3), greater (3), suppose (3), square (3), shade (3), shaded (3), area (3), known (3), ten (3), okay (3), deposited (3), through (3), works (3), reader (3), add (3), over (3), great (3), ever (3), fall (3), enough (3), wants (3), later (3), borrow (3), guess (3), relevant (3), historical (3), fact (3), smaller (3), give (3), rest (3), reality (3), heading (3), solve (3), wanted (3), century (3), trying (3), double (3), information (3), full (3), meat (3), human (3), veins (3), crash (3), reduction (3), led (3), indeed (3), free (3), crashes (3), plaque (3), prices (3), gang8 (3), evaluated (3), third (3), blogger (3), effect (3), having (3), control (3), image (3), 2003 (3), nonfinancial (3), thus (3), john (3), healthy (3), 1991 (3), 2006 (3), health (3), restore (3), answer (3), evolution (3), rather (3), stimulus (3), gonna (3), evaluate (3), defines (3), pdf (3), summary (3), widely (3), best (3), words (3), solution (3), mess (3), remains (3), view (3), set (3), hampering (3), sales (3), job (3), careful (3), irrelevant (3), computer (3), smith (3), machine (3), screw (3), similarity (3), expectations (3), given (3), video (3), interrupt (3), bush (3), surprise (3), consumer (3), following (3), art (3), jim (3), clonal (3), undeserved (3), timeline (3), productivity (3), finance (3), 2016 (2), appear (2), org (2), newer (2), labels (2), craft (2), consumers (2), simplicity (2), flow (2), toss (2), air (2), masquerading (2), mark (2), calls (2), plucking (2), versions (2), fits (2), moving (2), essentially (2), title (2), return (2), normal (2), statement (2), predicting (2), record (2), apart (2), politics (2), certain (2), falls (2), straight (2), reasonable (2), rows (2), calculated (2), depends (2), bigger (2), isn (2), notice (2), taking (2), account (2), expect (2), default (2), worthwhile (2), doubt (2), kuznets (2), surprised (2), failure (2), models (2), particular (2), word (2), continuing (2), 2007 (2), stepping (2), stone (2), element (2), theory (2), emphasis (2), preface (2), perfectly (2), figure (2), discusses (2), figured (2), meant (2), zen (2), babu (2), presents (2), organize (2), tools (2), notion (2), became (2), remained (2), anybody (2), else (2), she (2), declining (2), capacity (2), utilization (2), perpetually (2), ignoring (2), macro (2), fate (2), wrote (2), running (2), historically (2), share (2), divided (2), 1950 (2), week (2), plan (2), principal (2), businesses (2), maintain (2), quite (2), largest (2), code (2), sources (2), explain (2), service (2), 1992 (2), 400 (2), truth (2), united (2), states (2), further (2), asserted (2), level (2), singin (2), tune (2), jazz (2), soon (2), ascribe (2), rule (2), assume (2), galbraith (2), homework (2), appears (2), downward (2), ended (2), stagflation (2), disarray (2), rises (2), turns (2), friday (2), fascinated (2), balancing (2), percentage (2), fell (2), billions (2), saturday (2), pretty (2), compare (2), impression (2), war (2), sunday (2), next (2), brings (2), jake (2), links (2), collapse (2), epic (2), sequence (2), 1000 (2), final (2), neglects (2), teacher (2), explaining (2), bit (2), cents (2), decimal (2), places (2), however (2), additional (2), fractions (2), amounts (2), paper (2), unshaded (2), portion (2), forever (2), approximate (2), limit (2), calculator (2), slightly (2), accurate (2), clear (2), glad (2), true (2), kinda (2), correct (2), history (2), circulating (2), watching (2), peak (2), deny (2), happens (2), need (2), constant (2), 1980s (2), shown (2), become (2), newly (2), assuming (2), funds (2), butter (2), hang (2), 810 (2), kim (2), dedicated (2), econompic (2), jobs (2), stupid (2), clarity (2), under (2), false (2), raising (2), solving (2), saving (2), help (2), monday (2), board (2), governors (2), owed (2), increases (2), current (2), repetition (2), several (2), list (2), tuesday (2), none (2), phrase (2), related (2), fires (2), severe (2), bankruptcies (2), edifice (2), care (2), wiped (2), books (2), saved (2), administration (2), wall (2), street (2), 19th (2), buildup (2), arteries (2), physical (2), value (2), upswing (2), costs (2), production (2), oak (2), thoughtful (2), chip (2), nifty (2), graphic (2), table (2), column (2), addition (2), present (2), sort (2), causal (2), fix (2), choice (2), instead (2), might (2), increased (2), stimulate (2), assets (2), implausible (2), pawlenty (2), nice (2), taylor (2), fairness (2), eye (2), beholder (2), 1951 (2), 1961 (2), 1981 (2), paradigms (2), ruin (2), hand (2), conservatives (2), reviews (2), woodford (2), worrying (2), persuasive (2), arguments (2), temporary (2), disagree (2), chance (2), directly (2), moreover (2), induced (2), massive (2), presumably (2), already (2), accompanied (2), played (2), preventing (2), handle (2), act (2), liquidity (2), chances (2), seem (2), medium (2), focusing (2), dream (2), leave (2), showed (2), consider (2), horses (2), own (2), short (2), forget (2), paragraphs (2), changing (2), behind (2), silver (2), lining (2), science (2), otherwise (2), mmt (2), nation (2), follow (2), adam (2), skinner (2), systems (2), connect (2), movements (2), nations (2), pce (2), cpi (2), fault (2), trade (2), ball (2), twine (2), prefer (2), ideas (2), tongue (2), daniel (2), critics (2), blame (2), host (2), chart (2), policies (2), took (2), variable (2), 700k (2), bearwatch (2), gedankenexperiment (2), stability (2), instability (2), 1989 (2), factor (2), found (2), deduction (2), markup (2), corresponds (2), card (2), deductible (2), breakout (2), class (2), report (2), item (2), fewer (2), hickey (2), 24th (2), baird (2), antibody (2), unearned (2), someone (2), price (2), unspent (2), backed (2), treasuries (2), backing (2), bankrupt (2), likely (2), deflation (2), 2018 (2), sumner (2), household (2), loops (2), laffer (2), jerry (2), civilization (2), push (2), 2013 (2), dave (2), ross (2), google (2), translate (2), html (2), economist (2), charts (2), venn (2), rights, reserved, courtesy, http, research, stlouisfed, fred2, lead, water, him, drink, stay, thirsty, friends, subscribe, atom, home, older, finished, imagines, producers, motion, eliminates, sake, diagram, uptrend, moment, stops, starts, falling, ground, admitted, represents, represent, slash, repeated, overlay, mouse, identical, reference, benchmark, whichever, predictions, opening, pushback, displayed, 1870, pretend, forecasting, staff, sitting, harvard, cea, conceptual, performance, equally, throw, imagine, label, columns, categories, aggregate, plug, couple, perpetual, extending, conditions, emerge, asteroid, unless, destroys, emerging, outcomes, tomorrow, wisely, downturn, due, pluck, predictive, upturn, slope, correlation, ikedim, observe, potential, output, oriented, attempts, build, multisectoral, statics, fetish, abandoned, games, moniker, stochastic, describe, bastardized, ramsay, solow, dominate, disaster, followers, direct, converted, latter, body, cardinally, rebuilt, discussed, efficiently, 1930, 422, 428, 435, 436, scheme, entirety, essence, basis, towards, proper, discussion, helps, happy, postpone, waiting, balances, across, arranged, collection, theories, remarkable, effort, considered, suddenly, elevated, undefined, write, especially, smooth, sailing, steady, imbalances, predict, axes, former, adviser, department, apparently, guy, starve, beast, highlighting, broadest, product, congressional, estimated, consume, listens, burden, constraint, holding, released, provision, individuals, global, competitors, able, excessively, concentrating, solely, often, manipulated, note, applies, earned, substantially, taxpayers, exclusions, credits, dividends, gains, adjustments, permitted, alternative, internal, reducing, blown, proportion, offered, republican, cutting, self, evident, lowest, york, philipji, com, philip, thanks, quick, impressions, maynard, popped, head, consist, provide, shall, extensive, treatise, consists, ricardo, excoriates, james, 11th, gray, stripes, recessions, lasted, 1973, sweeping, 1960s, becoming, occur, keynesian, ronald, reagan, crossing, quickly, undiscovered, country, 1995, subtract, sniff, points, meaning, course, apparent, closeness, understanding, reviewing, month, debtwatch, myth, chunk, irritating, lendings, generating, 8900, 10000, eternity, relendings, thousand, orange, subsequent, lent, becomes, loaned, reminds, chemistry, told, wasn, approaching, 116, rounds, 250, pennies, richard, prior, paycheck, superman, movie, approaches, reaches, maximum, shading, undone, determined, logic, textbooks, written, divide, tells, error, billy, similar, steps, observes, inadequate, wordy, depiction, operate, characterised, fiat, flexible, exchange, guys, type, nothing, determining, raised, smoke, screen, distract, confuse, hear, aside, hypotheses, arise, references, study, opposite, creates, except, therefore, thrilled, idea, rose, ensued, 1933, significant, policymakers, 1930s, harder, tie, loose, anyway, normally, rejection, stronger, picked, 200, figures, 1200, tenth, hopefully, possibly, fathom, hey, statistics, exceed, representing, initial, case, sequences, resolve, iterations, succesive, formula, determination, multiplied, rrr, alleged, explained, hold, person, recipient, keeping, dissolve, pound, eat, hunger, macroeconomics, textbook, retain, fraction, sue, printed, notes, obliged, allowed, 900, bills, keeps, 729, kevin, iterative, consisting, injection, conventional, analysing, cavaliers, employee, killed, dealmaking, creativity, devoted, expanding, loads, stagnant, hesitate, deceiving, hiding, intent, arisen, arose, drove, fine, lowering, simplifying, accountants, broadening, competitive, loopholes, unfair, disparities, contribute, meet, shared, challenges, responsibilities, lists, clock, relentlessly, overnight, ends, wonder, match, checking, morning, noticed, items, listed, paragraph, highlight, parts, worked, independently, absolutely, shabby, highlighted, histories, bits, regarding, recover, offering, oddball, notions, methods, practical, nah, excerpts, agenda, driven, boring, prevention, forest, frequent, whaddya, chain, reaction, blink, twice, ruins, prevented, dark, ages, unique, aftermath, usual, lenders, speculators, loss, intervening, bonds, managers, emerged, downturns, 1945, taken, understood, hundred, phenomenon, wiping, sheet, property, intact, although, transferred, debtors, creditors, positive, claims, replaced, equity, ownership, housing, affordable, rental, goods, services, incorporate, charges, built, minimized, bringing, clearing, circulatory, freed, resume, gained, momentum, exponentially, crashed, recommended, sackerson, state, fight, survival, truthout, shirley, theme, shouldn, missed, liked, suggested, unwise, improved, ridiculous, econospeak, exl, evolved, grow, bloom, flawed, premise, contradict, horizontal, roll, flutter, avoid, tied, buy, hair, tail, wagged, dog, worth, unfortunately, holdings, liquid, favor, politically, acceptible, claim, accompanying, article, americans, gates, pink, polo, shirt, interactive, instituting, afterthought, proposition, postwar, standards, 1940, citizens, triple, nill, thoughts, mike, bound, describes, funny, spends, prob, austerian, strengthen, position, embedding, include, introduces, offers, heh, commitment, ahead, unwilling, unable, arguing, solutions, quantity, method, indirect, affects, crucial, sez, reduces, specifically, furthermore, outcome, renewed, doubtless, begin, destroy, destroying, unresolved, succeed, practice, constantly, encounter, moderns, sharply, stage, overhang, continues, drag, informal, deleveraging, trap, fair, playing, stars, possibility, expecting, shaped, persuade, commit, permanent, target, convince, markets, seemed, turned, hope, bother, understate, overstate, ing, stephanie, skip, donut, find, asks, formulas, wondering, mostly, algebra, considers, goal, evidently, bottom, remain, employment, zeroes, bold, washington, concerned, pointing, agreement, independent, stopped, strong, hoping, drawn, depending, sympathy, stands, irrelevancies, accept, fluff, filler, complete, diet, donuts, imagery, purpose, dispute, treat, regardless, demonstrate, bailout, central, explains, public, obligations, electronically, keyboards, social, security, medicare, shortfall, inability, american, rebuild, infrastructure, penguin, classics, abridgement, andrew, comparable, complex, friend, haywire, bunch, settings, once, worse, methodical, remember, lessons, teaches, messing, carelessly, liable, respects, resemble, machines, perform, efforts, artist, occasion, imaginary, invented, fancy, effects, performed, beckworth, lots, retirement, blues, musings, brief, excel, downhill, 60s, spirits, cheer, wait, boost, preference, widespread, constraints, players, advantage, china, company, parent, entertainment, bludgeoned, forked, sentence, observation, sounds, arrive, supposing, altogether, deal, theoretically, misguided, sometimes, listening, radio, program, tripled, assertion, understandable, jumped, 450, billion, illustrates, explosion, detail, assumption, blamed, casual, observer, untrue, began, nearly, four, months, entire, lambasting, productive, attack, puts, merely, symptom, underlying, disease, cato, liberty, 245k, 945k, 700, 945, check, classes, tcmdo, variety, eyeballed, colors, indicate, shape, significance, caught, everyone, passed, unnoticed, eyeballing, misreading, easy, leg, hard, reasons, toward, obvious, advice, phasing, attractive, repeating, pattern, facts, appropriate, huh, remarks, expense, eliminated, gradually, gives, hint, memory, dip, early, occurs, plain, caused, reform, personal, fallen, returns, car, boat, phased, los, angeles, select, totals, breakouts, heck, slowing, visible, business, decreasing, estate, commercial, industrial, date, rcfd2170, finds, quotes, response, drew, forth, warren, responds, move, topics, commenting, biggest, stretch, equipment, marxist, problematic, distinction, wages, derivative, source, elaborated, counterpart, hence, serviced, limited, nominal, proviso, spent, shareholders, interests, recirculated, afflicted, exponential, canard, circular, nature, payments, inevitable, govt, issued, excess, rules, haven, cover, leads, effectively, continuously, continue, serious, issues, scenario, lifestyle, degree, supporting, increasing, contract, enormous, implosion, moral, hazard, betting, path, prosperity, exports, workers, working, resources, indirectly, insidious, game, paying, appetite, copyright, arthur, shipman, zoho, withering, shoots, waste, fraud, abuse, verdoorn, urgency, unsustainable, umic, ulc, tot, cheek, tint, knob, shift, transaction, symmetry, deception, star, trek, standard
Text of the page (random words):
ne as long as we spend more than we take in which is required by being the reserve currency of the world we will never really go bankrupt as a nation but the longer we continue with this sort of debt backed money the more likely we are to have serious economic issues following an analysis of that quote by art a different art i m sure jim baird writes one more thing about the original comment it seems to be afflicted with the old exponential interest canard that neglects the circular nature of interest payments and sees an inevitable crash since there isn t enough money to pay back both the principal and interest i m always surprised at how many people believe this in response to jim baird there is a comment by clonal antibody who must be the same as clonal here it does not matter that the interests are recirculated when you borrow 1 you have to pay back the dollar plus interest where will the interest come from that drew forth this from warren mosler the bank shareholders spend their interest income clonal antibody responds yes you are quite correct but the point i was trying to make was that the amount of interest that can be serviced this way is limited by the nominal growth rate of the economy and the proviso that all the interest be spent and none saved mosler any unspent income has that same effect as unspent interest income later comments move to other topics i just want to point out that it seems to me that for many of the people commenting at mosler s rent is one of the world s biggest problems but interest is no problem at all yet rent and interest are the same thing given the way they use the word rent michael hudson defines rent the 19th century elaborated the concept of economic rent as that element of price which found no counterpart in actual cost of production and hence was unearned unearned income undeserved income it is not a far stretch from saying the income to capital money is undeserved to saying the income to capital equipment is undeserved and that is as marxist a thought as i have ever seen hudson and hickey both see rent as a problematic cost mosler sees interest as income the distinction is false for every cost is someone s income and every income is someone s cost actually that may be mosler s point still the issue is not the cost of interest in comparison to the income from interest the issue is interest in comparison to wages and to profits the issue is the balance among factor costs from the wealth of nations the interest of money is always a derivative revenue which if it is not paid from the profit which is made by the use of the money must be paid from some other source of revenue posted by the arthurian at 12 23 pm 7 comments fewer by half from fred the number of banks in each size class by date includes all banks with total assets call report item rcfd2170 greater than zero posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday june 29 2011 breakout following up on yesterday s post at fred i select banking and then loans there is a list of eight data sets the first three are not totals but breakouts for commercial and industrial loans real estate loans and consumer loans all for 1947 to 2011 for the heck of it a close up of 1980 2000 not really much of a slowing visible in the 1986 1990 period but business and consumer loans were both flat or even decreasing for a few years after 1990 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments tuesday june 28 2011 the evidence in the evidence i look a lot at total credit market debt owed tcmdo graph 1 also at the year to year change in that debt graph 2 in it i see a variety of trends i took graph 2 and eyeballed in the trends i see to make graph 3 graph 3 reading from left to right on the graph i see a period of relative stability green trend line a period of relative instability yellow trend lines a surprising out of place decline red trend line another period of relative stability green again and another surprising decline red again the colors indicate similarity of the trend shape not the significance of the trends for example there is a big difference between the red 1989 1992 surprise and the red 2008 2009 surprise the first occurred during relatively good years in the economy relatively good the second occurred during the recent crisis and recession the recent surprising decline caught everyone by surprise the first one passed unnoticed but i m just eyeballing trends here maybe i am misreading things it would be easy to see the last leg of that yellow relative instability trend as part of the first surprising downtrend graph 4 which is it hard to say a little of both maybe when i first started looking into reasons for the decline in debt growth i looked toward tax policy as an obvious factor i found a little tax advice from the los angeles times of 27 december 1990 including this personal interest deductions have also fallen to 10 on federal tax returns that means that the interest you pay on credit card debt and car and boat loans among other things is only 10 deductible for 1990 taxes the deductions will be phased out completely next year so okay i thought phasing out the interest deduction made debt less attractive and if you look at the growth of debt graph there seems to be a repeating up and down pattern shown in yellow on the second graph which changes between 1989 and 1990 but then i came upon additional tax policy facts wikipedia of all places on the tax reform act of 1986 moreover interest on consumer loans such as credit card debt were no longer deductible so 1986 that would mean the graph 4 trend markup is more appropriate than my graph 3 markup huh but what of the la times remarks perhaps the tax deduction for interest expense was eliminated gradually reaching 10 in 1990 and zero in 1991 possible but wikipedia gives no hint of it nor does my memory having looked even longer now at the debt growth trends i notice that the first yellow downtrend corresponds to the 1974 recession and the second yellow downtrend corresponds to the double dip recession of the early 1980s on the other hand no recession induced the third yellow downtrend no recession occurs until 1990 91 near the end of that long downtrend so perhaps it was tax policy plain and simple that caused debt growth to slow i like that the notion fits with what i know to be true policy works posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments monday june 27 2011 bearwatch gedankenexperiment consider an economy with 3 classes of people 50 x 0k 0k 49 x 5k 245k 1 x 700k 700k total 945k increase in wealth the first year 700 945 74 check posted by the arthurian at 7 38 pm 0 comments couldn t interrupt a video this way given the choice i much prefer reading to watching video oh not for entertainment no but when it is something i have to think about like the economy i want to read it otherwise i just get bludgeoned by ideas that there is no time to evaluate i think that s how things go wrong but even in print people try to present ideas faster than they can be evaluated that s my first impression of this forked tongue piece from cato liberty don t blame obama for bush s 2009 deficit posted by daniel j mitchell some critics are lambasting president obama for record deficits this is not a productive line of attack largely because it puts the focus on the wrong variable america s fiscal problem is excessive government spending and deficits are merely a symptom of that underlying disease time to interrupt third sentence in daniel j mitchell is using a conclusion as if it were an observation the problem is excessive government spending sounds like a conclusion to me and how would you know that america s fiscal problem is excessive government spending if not for the deficits but perhaps this is mr mitchell s point so then let us suppose that deficits are evidence of excessive government spending oh well there you go this is how we arrive at mitchell s conclusion by supposing it in addition to being theoretically misguided critics sometimes blame obama for things that are not his fault listening to a talk radio program yesterday the host asserted that obama tripled the budget deficit in his first year this assertion is understandable since the deficit jumped from about 450 billion in 2008 to 1 4 trillion in 2009 as this chart illustrates with the bush years in green it appears as if obama s policies have led to an explosion of debt but there is one rather important detail that makes a big difference the chart is based on the assumption that the current administration should be blamed for the 2009 fiscal year while this makes sense to a casual observer it is largely untrue the 2009 fiscal year began october 1 2008 nearly four months before obama took office the budget for the entire fiscal year was largely set in place while bush was in the white house as for myself i much prefer to leave out the politics altogether and deal directly with the economics of the economic problem posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments sunday june 26 2011 ball of twine made in china for a u s company with a canadian parent this is not free trade posted by the arthurian at 10 28 am 1 comments why is krugman saying this that said widespread credit constraints presumably reduce the number of players who can take advantage of lower rates we can t boost the economy with more debt liquidity preference has changed posted by the arthurian at 10 21 am 1 comments twenty cent trends second look at some numbers from twenty cent paradigms fairness is in the eye of the beholder but the us economy actually grew faster when top marginal tax rates were higher here is the annual average growth in real gdp and the average annual top marginal tax rates for the us by decade 1951 60 3 42 91 2 1961 70 4 11 78 4 1971 80 3 14 70 0 1981 90 3 21 44 5 1991 2000 3 22 37 9 2001 2006 2 51 36 2 so i put those numbers into a graph and let excel add trend lines for them everything trends downhill at least since the 60s but then so do my spirits come to think of it maybe the economy s long decline is all my fault maybe if i cheer up the economy will get better oh wait i thought i was making a joke but that s not a joke it s the actual view of all those economists who say the problem is expectations posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 17 comments saturday june 25 2011 must read one brief comment at macro and other market musings posted by the arthurian at 4 37 pm 2 comments pce and cpi long term from beckworth via retirement blues this graph showing similarity for five years or so from fred a longer view showing what looks to me like lots of similarity posted by the arthurian at 12 25 pm 4 comments don t screw it up the penguin classics abridgement of adam smith s the wealth of nations includes an introduction by andrew skinner in skinner s introduction there is a quote from smith about systems systems in many respects resemble machines a machine is a little system created to perform as well as to connect together in reality those different movements and efforts which the artist has occasion for a system is an imaginary machine invented to connect together in the fancy those different movements and effects which are already in reality performed so adam smith says the economy is a system it is comparable to a complex machine in our day you could compare it to a computer years back a friend of mine would try to fix his computer when it went haywire by going in and changing a bunch of settings all at once far as i could see he was only making things worse one has to be methodical one has to remember the lessons the system teaches you don t just go messing with it carelessly because you re liable to screw it up posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments friday june 24 2011 not my style follow up the other day i made the most of a michael hudson post pointing out that he and i agree on a lot of debt related stuff and that at least some of my agreement is based on my own independent analysis of long term trends in our economy but then i stopped short and said forget about reading hudson s post here s why after eight strong paragraphs hudson does the kelton thing changing horses to make the point he wanted to make all along hoping the reader will have been drawn in by what came before depending on the reader s sympathy for the objective that stands behind the second horse irrelevancies if there was a silver lining to all this it has been to demonstrate that if the treasury and federal reserve can create 13 trillion of public obligations money electronically on computer keyboards there really is no social security problem at all no medicare shortfall no inability of the american government to rebuild the nation s infrastructure the bailout of wall street showed how central banks can create money as modern money theory mmt explains the argument is only effective because people want to accept the second horse part but the second horse turns the first eight paragraphs of meat into fluff it s just filler there to draw you in complete with the diet of donuts out of the blue completely irrelevant imagery of the buildup of plaque deposits in human veins and arteries the whole of the first eight is as irrelevant to michael hudson s silver lining purpose as is the one line about plaque people dispute whether economics is science i don t care we have to treat it like science regardless we have to make our best arguments and we have to have relevant conclusions otherwise the whole thing is a joke posted by the arthurian at 8 00 am 0 comments not my style if you look at my recent series three posts beginning with the world in red and blue you ll see several graphs but few conclusions hope that doesn t bother you i d rather understate things than overstate them the economy is what it is i can t change that by bs ing you in a recent post stephanie kelton discusses obama s implausible dream i will skip the donut part and get to the meat as far as washington is concerned there are only two ways to bring down the deficit cut spending or increase taxes both reduce private sector incomes this means that the president is looking for a way to reduce private sector incomes without hampering sales or job creation obama s dream is to find a way to reduce private sector incomes without hampering sales or job creation can it be done kelton asks after careful analysis her answer is no the careful analysis is done in words accompanied by little formulas that leave me wondering mostly why are some of the zeroes smaller and bold so much for the algebra here is kelton s summary of her analysis the bottom line is this as long as unemployment remains high the deficit will remain high so instead of continuing to put the deficit first it s time get to work on a plan to increase employment but that s not what her analysis showed the analysis does not consider whether it is possible to reduce the deficit while unemployment remains high the analysis considers whether it is possible...
|
