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ecession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman sunday august 30 2015 must re think yes you do need to rethink this a strongly negative natural real safe rate of interest there s at mouthful will cause sigificant problems brad delong seems to be a first draft blogger as if he has no need ever to go back and check his work to fix a spelling mistake to get rid of the extra words that muddy his meaning to use a goddamn comma once in a while none of that i don t often read the guy because i have to fight with his sentences to figure them out even his titles are too long i m looking at must re read paul krugman secular stagnation coalmines bubbles and larry summers delong s post is about a division in the ranks among economists who agree with him on what the problem is the division arises when it comes to a solution some of us rogoff krugman blanchard me think our deep macro economic problems could be largely solved by the adoption and successful maintenance of a 4 year inflation target in the north atlantic others summers bernanke do not if these guys are offering solutions and their solutions don t agree then maybe they ought to check their work re analyze the problem to see what the problem really is and then come up with a solution anyway the solution offered by some of them rogoff krugman blanchard and delong is to double the target rate of inflation and hit that target i don t like it the problem is not that prices are too low oh hey inflation defined as an increase in the general level of prices where the general level of prices by definition includes the price of labor or wages so that inflation lifts all boats inflation erodes debt inflation encourages spending inflation is associated with growth all of that no shit but the problem is not that prices are too low when economists write textbooks or teach introductory students or lecture to laymen they happily extol the virtues of two lovely handmaidens of aggregate economic stabilization fiscal policy and monetary policy arthur okun when i went back to school for a course in macro in the 70s i learned we had two goals and two policies the policies were monetary and fiscal the goals were price stability and economic growth i am embarrassed for economists they once knew our goal to be price stability now they know it as inflation stability and argue about where to stabilize it oh my god milton friedman must be turning in his grave maynard keynes must be turning in his delong opens his post with a conflict some economists agree with him that higher inflation will solve the problem some don t delong presents his view our deep macro economic problems could be largely solved by higher inflation but he does not describe the opposing view except to say that those who hold it reject his view according to delong the opposing view is that there will still be sigificant sic problems even if 4 year inflation allows a demand stabilizing central to successfully do its job did you notice delong does not attempt to understand or even to state the opposing view he only restates his own view and adds negativity he could still try to understand the other side s position of course but instead he tries to explain why his inability to understand their view bothers him so i would have said that my mental model of bernanke thought is very good and i would have said that the sub turing evocation of summers that i am currently running on my wetware is world class i did say tries to explain that is all that there is of delong s contribution to the post it s just as well really the rest of the post is made up of excerpts from those who share his view you know rogoff krugman blanchard delong oddly the excerpts come from paul krugman gavyn davies paul krugman and jared bernstein well delong is right about one thing i did have to re read his post here s why in his introductory paragraphs delong admits to being disturbed by disagreement between two groups the delong group holds that higher inflation will solve the problem the other group holds it will not my failure to comprehend why they think this disturbs me he says maybe he means he is coming around to their point of view wow it s pretty well hidden if that s what he means but let me tell you why i think that might be the case in the first excerpt paul krugman says i very much fear that larry summers may be right in the second excerpt gavyn davies says if the other guys are right inflation won t solve the problem the problem of under performance of gdp will last for a very long time and will not solve itself through flexibility in prices in the third excerpt krugman favors higher inflation but still has doubts one answer could be a higher inflation target so that the real interest rate can go more negative i m for it but you do have to wonder how effective that low real interest rate can be if we re simultaneously limiting leverage in the fourth excerpt jared bernstein favors higher inflation but still has doubts i m totally with the program re getting the real interest rate down but i m nervous that it might not be as effective as historical correlations would suggest in those excerpts together there is as much doubt as support for a policy of 4 inflation so i think delong is telling us he s having second thoughts soon he will abandon the delong group in his first paragraph he s firmly in favor of 4 inflation as a solution to our deep macro economic problems in his second paragraph he is disturbed by other views in the rest of the piece he dwells on the fears worries concerns and doubts of others brad delong is preparing to change his views on the effectiveness of higher inflation as a solution my respect for brad delong just hit a record high but listen brad buddy we don t have time for this we re six years into the sinkhole you gotta get your act together i want to take bits and pieces from the excerpts delong provides to see if i can come up with something he might have missed krugman 2 when the minsky moment came there was a rush to deleverage this drove down overall demand for any given interest rate and made the wicksellian natural rate substantially negative pushing us into a liquidity trap when the minsky moment came there was a rush to deleverage krugman says but i suspect we knew the minsky moment had come because there was a rush to deleverage it s not like the minsky moment came and then we all said let s get out of debt now the minsky moment is just the name for that moment when there s a rush to deleverage other than that krugman s statement is one long trail of theory see how he takes an actual event the rush to deleverage and buries it in layer after layer of theory it drove down demand it made the natural rate negative it created a liquidity trap this is as good an example as i have ever seen of an economist who needs to go back and rethink the problem first see what the problem really is spend a lot of time on that then consider solutions krugman s thought process doesn t start with deleverage it starts with the liquidity trap it starts with his conclusion krugman 1 the underlying problem in all of this is simply that real interest rates are too high the market wants a strongly negative real interest rate and so we ll have persistent problems until we find a way to deliver such a rate what the market wants is to be out of debt remember the rush to deleverage stop focusing on negative real interest rates and other elegant claptrap focus on facts as of this moment we re still not ready to rush back into leverage that s why we still have large output gaps and no evidence of price pressures bernstein many years post panic we still have large output gaps and no evidence of price pressures the zero bound is constraining fed policy fuck the zero bound that s not the problem it s a result many years post panic we still have large output gaps and no evidence of price pressures because we re still delevered from mine of 22 september 2012 the problem is not that prices are too low the problem is that growth is too slow there is only one correct focus and it is to understand the reason growth is slow for the record as long as economists continue to dismiss out of hand the possibility that excessive private sector debt is the reason growth is slow economists will continue to fail to understand slow growth maybe that s confusing i just took a lot of your time to tell you the rush to deleverage was the problem then i say excessive debt is the problem do you see how those pieces fit together the excessive private sector debt was the cause of the rush to deleverage when the excessiveness of it finally hit home deleverage was the only option left excessive debt was the problem that caused the deleverage problem that caused the negative real rate problem that caused the liquidity trap problem that s how the pieces fit okay but i also said growth is slow because debt is excessive but it s the deleveraging that slowed things down how do those pieces fit gavyn davies the normal route through which monetary policy works by bringing forward consumption from the future into the present is unlikely to be successful there will still be a shortage of demand when the future comes around bringing forward consumption from the future into the present is accomplished by spending future income in the present in other words by the use of credit we have policies to encourage the use of credit indeed as gavyn davies says that is the normal route through which monetary policy works tax policy also encourages credit use through tax deductions these policies accelerate the use of credit we have policies to accelerate the use of credit but we have no policy to accelerate the repayment of debt therefore debt accumulates to unnatural and excessive levels the cost of that debt hinders economic growth fosters the growth of finance and drives the inequality of wealth and income yadda yadda yadda and rather than raising interest rates to fight inflation policy must accelerate the repayment of debt to fight inflation posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments tuesday august 25 2015 where s the explosion the blue line shows the rate of change in the federal debt the red lines are calculated trends for the periods 1948 1965 1965 1984 and 1984 2000 in which period did the explosion of debt occur posted by the arthurian at 6 43 am 10 comments monday august 24 2015 the federal debt graph with a constant growth rate denominator i was saying noah s picture of debt growth is distorted by a wandering denominator by a gdp that suffers from a variable and inconsistent rate of increase it occurs to me that we could get a better picture of debt growth by faking the gdp numbers rather than using actual values we can calculate a set of values that approximate the gdp numbers but are based on a constant rate of growth i didn t do any of that least squares crap or anything like i just picked 1947 for a startpoint and 2000 for an endpoint and figured out a constant growth rate that would get me from the 1947 gdp number to the 2000 gdp number it is completely subjective or arbitrary really and if you know how you could probably come up with a better series of constant growth rate values meanwhile i got what i got and i m going with it graph 1 graph 1 shows actual often called nominal gdp in red and my constant growth rate numbers in blue you can see that the lines cross som...
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