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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during November 2011;
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d skola och vård 28 nov 2011 at 15 01 posted in economics politics society 2 comments lena sommestad skriver åter klokt om vinstdrivande bolag i skattefinansierad offentlig verksamhet idag står vi där vi står med en borgerlig regering som under fem års tid har släppt vinstintressena fullständigt fria i offentlig sektor vem anser idag att vinstmaximering i offentlig sektor inte kan skapa problem borgerlighetens valseger blev jackpot för välfärdens entreprenörer mest märkligt är dock att socialdemokraterna i opposition inte skärpte analysen av välfärdsföretagen istället blev det tvärtom i valrörelsen 2010 drev socialdemokraterna inte någon tydlig linje för non profit i välfärdssektorn istället hade partiet faktiskt anammat samma paroll som friskolornas riksförbund använde år 2006 i kritiken mot ibrahim baylan fokusera på skolans kvalitet istället för vinst en strålande framgång för välfärdens vinstdrivande entreprenörer deras pr firmor och fristående s märkta lobbyister borde inte lena sommestad vara ett namn att ha i åtanke när håkan juholt svajat färdigt tillägg att forskare sedan länge varnat för problemen med vinstdriven skattefinansierad skola och vård kan du försäkra dig om t ex här och här share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky statsobligationsräntan redux 28 nov 2011 at 00 18 posted in economics politics society 2 comments hmm vilket land var det nu som är med i eurosamarbetet share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky oj så fel det kan bli trots alla dessa rigorösa och precisa modeller 27 nov 2011 at 13 45 posted in economics comments off on oj så fel det kan bli trots alla dessa rigorösa och precisa modeller neoklassiska nationalekonomer brukar ofta i linje med milton friedmans metodologiska instrumentalism säga att det inte har någon betydelse hur realistiska de antaganden modellerna man laborerar med är huvudsaken är att prediktionerna blir riktiga om det nu är så kan vi bara dra en enda slutsats kasta skiten på soptippen för oj vad fel de har haft simon potter har analyserat de prediktioner federal reserve bank of new york gjort över utvecklingen av real bnp och arbetslöshet under åren 2007 2010 det visar sig att prediktionerna slog fel med respektive 5 9 och 4 4 vilket motsvarar 6 miljoner arbetslösa economic forecasters never expect to predict precisely one way of measuring the accuracy of their forecasts is against previous forecast errors when judged by forecast error performance metrics from the macroeconomic quiescent period that many economists have labeled the great moderation the new york fed research staff forecasts as well as most private sector forecasts for real activity before the great recession look unusually far off the mark one source for such metrics is a paper by reifschneider and tulip 2007 they analyzed the forecast error performance of a range of public and private forecasters over 1986 to 2006 that is roughly the period that most economists associate with the great moderation in the united states on the basis of their analysis one could have expected that an october 2007 forecast of real gdp growth for 2008 would be within 1 3 percentage points of the actual outcome 70 percent of the time the new york fed staff forecast at that time was for growth of 2 6 percent in 2008 based on the forecast of 2 6 percent and the size of forecast errors over the great moderation period one would have expected that 70 percent of the time actual growth would be within the 1 3 to 3 9 percent range the current estimate of actual growth in 2008 is 3 3 percent indicating that our forecast was off by 5 9 percentage points using a similar approach to reifschneider and tulip but including forecast errors for 2007 one would have expected that 70 percent of the time the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 should have been within 0 7 percentage point of a forecast made in april 2008 the actual forecast error was 4 4 percentage points equivalent to an unexpected increase of over 6 million in the number of unemployed workers under the erroneous assumption that the 70 percent projection error band was based on a normal distribution this would have been a 6 standard deviation error a very unlikely occurrence indeed med andra ord dessa tvärsäkra mainstream ekonomer med sina rigorösa precisa och matematiska modeller hade fel och vi andra får betala för det share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky new keynesianism what a gross misnomer 27 nov 2011 at 13 08 posted in economics theory of science methodology comments off on new keynesianism what a gross misnomer back in 1994 laurence ball and greg mankiw argued that although traditionalists are often called new keynesians this label is a misnomer they could just as easily be called new monetarists that is still true today new keynesianism is a gross misnomer the macroeconomics of people like greg mankiw has a lot to do with milton friedman robert lucas and thomas sargent and very little or next to nothing to do with the founder of macroeconomics john maynard keynes in a more recent paper on modern macroeconomics greg mankiw writes the real world of macroeconomic policymaking can be disheartening for those of us who have spent most of our careers in academia the sad truth is that the macroeconomic research of the past three decades has had only minor impact on the practical analysis of monetary or fiscal policy the explanation is not that economists in the policy arena are ignorant of recent developments quite the contrary the staff of the federal reserve includes some of the best young ph d s and the council of economic advisers under both democratic and republican administrations draws talent from the nation s top research universities the fact that modern macroeconomic research is not widely used in practical policymaking is prima facie evidence that it is of little use for this purpose the research may have been successful as a matter of science but it has not contributed significantly to macroeconomic engineering so then what is the raison d être of macroeconomics if it has nothing to say about the real world and the economic problems out there the final court of appeal for macroeconomic models is the real world and as long as no convincing justification is put forward for how the inferential bridging de facto is made macroeconomic modelbuilding is little more than hand waving that give us rather little warrant for making inductive inferences from models to real world target systems if substantive questions about the real world are being posed it is the formalistic mathematical representations utilized to analyze them that have to match reality not the other way around as keynes has it economics is a science of thinking in terms of models joined to the art of choosing models which are relevant to the contemporary world it is compelled to be this because unlike the natural science the material to which it is applied is in too many respects not homogeneous through time if macoeconomic models no matter of what ilk assume representative actors rational expectations market clearing and equilibrium and we know that real people and markets cannot be expected to obey these assumptions the warrants for supposing that conclusions or hypothesis of causally relevant mechanisms or regularities can be bridged are obviously non justifiable macroeconomic theorists regardless of being new monetarist new classical or new keynesian ought to do some ontological reflection and heed keynes warnings on using thought models in economics the object of our analysis is not to provide a machine or method of blind manipulation which will furnish an infallible answer but to provide ourselves with an organized and orderly method of thinking out particular problems and after we have reached a provisional conclusion by isolating the complicating factors one by one we then have to go back on ourselves and allow as well as we can for the probable interactions of the factors amongst themselves this is the nature of economic thinking any other way of applying our formal principles of thought without which however we shall be lost in the wood will lead us into error share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky greg mankiw walkout the movie 26 nov 2011 at 20 58 posted in economics education school comments off on greg mankiw walkout the movie share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky set fire to the rain 26 nov 2011 at 20 30 posted in varia comments off on set fire to the rain this one is for you jeanette meyer share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky eurofördel i ll be dipped 26 nov 2011 at 13 20 posted in economics comments off on eurofördel i ll be dipped frågan om sverige ska ansluta sig till emu dyker då och då upp i debatten i tillämpad makroekonomi sns 4 uppl 2011 har exempelvis ekonomiprofessorn harry flam ett kapitel som diskuterar huruvida sverige skulle förlora eller vinna på att gå med i emu här radas de vanliga argumenten för ökad utrikeshandel och investeringar minskad valutaväxling mer integrerade finansiella marknader m m och mot dålig penningpolitisk anpassning till enskilda länders behov premiering av kortsiktig och oansvarig finanspolitik m m upp efter att ha vägt dessa för och nackdelar mot varandra kommer sedan flam fram till bedömningen att det är oklart om de makroekonomiska kostnaderna av att vara med i den monetära unionen kan förväntas vara större eller mindre än de makroekonomiska kostnaderna av att stå utanför och att de mikroekonomiska vinsterna i form av ökad handel med varor ökade investeringar och ökad finansiell integration överväger jo man tackar fördelar med finansiell integration låt oss titta lite på hur det ser ut där ute i verkligheten och inte bara hänge oss åt lek med tankemodeller källa der spiegel share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky vem bryr sig om eu 26 nov 2011 at 11 03 posted in politics society comments off on vem bryr sig om eu source der spiegel share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky går euron att rädda 26 nov 2011 at 10 50 posted in economics politics society comments off on går euron att rädda ja men då behövs enligt the economist en vidare tolkning av ecb s penningpolitiska mandat can anything be done to avert disaster the answer is still yes but the scale of action needed is growing even as the time to act is running out the only institution that can provide immediate relief is the ecb as the lender of last resort it must do more to save the banks by offering unlimited liquidity for longer duration against a broader range of collateral even if the ecb rejects this logic for governments wrongly in our view large scale bond buying is surely now justified by the ecb s own narrow interpretation of prudent central banking that is because much looser monetary policy is necessary to stave off recession and deflation in the euro zone fears of moral hazard mean less now that all peripheral country governments are committed to austerity and reform debt mutualisation can be devised to stop short of a permanent transfer union mrs merkel and the ecb cannot continue to threaten feckless economies with exclusion from the euro in one breath and reassure markets by promising the euro s salvation with the next unless she chooses soon germany s chancellor will find that the choice has been made for her share on facebook 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