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Text of the page (random words):
ary 22 2017 it was the changing behavior of inflation that created stagflation it s pretty simple really stagflation is not just inflation on the one side or stagnation on the other but both of them together that s according to iain macleod who created the word and the concept of stagflation according to wikipedia the word stagflation is a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation macleod took two separate and distinct words and jammed them together to make a new word to describe what he saw happening in the economy in the economy stagnation and inflation had been somehow jammed together so both were occurring at the same time i went to measuringworth for real and nominal gdp from 2015 back to 1800 annual data unfortunately but let s take a look this graph shows years when prices were rising and gdp was not graph 1 annual data suggesting times of stagflation stagflation is not common by this graph though it was not altogether new in 1965 when macleod gave it a name the graph shows annual data going back to 1800 a lot of people will tell you the data from back then is old unreliable and not worth bothering with that s okay they probably say the same about me i find it interesting that stagflation does not appear at all before the 1890s but does occur before world war two knowing this i want to take a look at the quarterly data quarterly data provides more detail than annual like a camera with more megapixels but the quarterly values begin in 1947 and provide no detail about earlier years this next graph shows the times since 1947 when rgdp growth was below half a percent and inflation was above 1 for change from previous quarter values graph 2 quarterly data suggesting times of stagflation my inflation measure is high given that 1 quarter to quarter is used i used strongly rising inflation to borrow macleod s phrase the graph shows an interesting result we see stagflation mostly in the 1970s the beginning middle and end of the 1970s plus a couple years just before the 1970s and three years after call those 15 years an era of stagflation if i raise the more than 1 inflation filter to more than 1 25 the narrow scattered bars disappear leaving only the first blue bar on the left and the big cluster at the 1970s that is when most of the inflation occurred the 1970s but that s not exactly the point the point is that inflation was high in the 70s and the economy was stagnant the occurrence of both stagnation and inflation defines stagflation peak trough 1969 12 01 1970 11 01 1973 11 01 1975 03 01 1980 01 01 1980 07 01 1981 07 01 1982 11 01 but then most of the stagnation in and about the 1970s occurred as the result of inflation fighting by the federal reserve there were four rapid fire recessions in that era and no other recessions between march of 1961 and june of 1990 the recessions were basically brought on by the fed which raised interest rates sharply to curb inflation according to paul krugman that means the stagflation we see in that era was the result anti inflation policy applied in a time of high inflation inflation was running high in those years and the policy response to inflation created stagnation the policy response did reduce inflation but not enough to make prices fall this meant we had both inflation and stagnation which by definition is stagflation the key point is that inflation was rising strongly anti inflation policy was the natural response the response created stagnation unless prices actually fell the result was stagflation i like this explanation but i think most people if you asked them about stagflation would say it happened because of the oil shocks the dramatic increases in the price of oil well okay the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 might explain the stagflation in the middle 70s and the stagflation at the end of the 70s but what about the stagflation at the beginning of the 70s that was before any oil shock yet there it is on graph 2 plain as day so the oil shock story does not fully explain stagflation the next graph shows the monthly change in prices as measured by the cpi the blue line does seem to move downward at or near times of recession so the rate of inflation goes down but in the stagflation era prices didn t go down on this graph the blue line going below zero indicates prices going down graph 3 percent change in the cpi monthly data over time between the 1940s and the 1960s the blue line goes below zero less and less in the latter 60s the blue line stops going below zero altogether till after the 1982 recession in those years prices did not go down so from the latter 1960s to 1982 any time the economy was stagnant we had stagflation the percent change in cpi did vary of course and the economy continued to have recessions but stagnation no longer coincided with price decline because prices no longer went down in the stagflation era prices went up a little more or went up a little less but did not go down this seems to me to be the simplest explanation of stagflation if this explanation is correct it was the changing behavior of inflation that made stagflation a reality instead of going up or down prices went up more or up less you can see it on the graph to explain this different behavior we should look at inflation before and during the stagflation era since the problem was that inflation didn t go below zero it didn t go low enough in other words we should look at the lows of inflation not the highs the trend of low values of graph 3 is persistently upward from the mid 1950s or earlier to 1980 as shown here graph 4 same as graph 3 up to 1988 blue the lows of the blue line red and overlapping three year averages of the red line black the problem that became stagflation began as gradually increasing inflation it was developing already the first time inflationary lows bottomed out at a higher level than they had before when was that first time the lows of the 1970s were higher than the low of the 1960s but the low of the 1960s was higher than the low of the mid 50s and i ll be damned if the low of the mid 50s wasn t higher than the low of the late 40s stagflation emerged late in the pattern of long term increase visible in the inflationary lows this is not a problem that began in 1974 it is not a problem that reduces to slow growth in as and it is not a problem that can be written off as inflation expectations it may however be attributed to a gradual long term cost push problem such as the one arising from the persistent growth of finance the stagflation era is a benchmark in economic history it is fully explained by the long term increase in inflationary lows that goes back 30 years or more before 1980 that long term increase is not fully explained by the price of oil in his 1957 lectures on prosperity without inflation arthur burns eloquently explained that economic policies since the enactment of the employment act of 1946 had introduced an inflationary bias in the u s economy athanasios orphanides the excel files usgdp_1800 2016 xls for graph 1 stagflation quarterly xls for graph 2 lows in percent change of cpi xls for graph 4 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels stagflation tuesday february 21 2017 the gory details google house of commons official report 77 million results the one i want is first on the list click house of commons hansard archives uk parliament at the house of commons hansard archives page you want historic hansard 1803 2005 using their nifty century and decade selector select the 20th century and then select the 1960s then select the year 1965 and month november and day the 17th from there i used ctrl f to search the page for econ and found economic affairs i clicked that and got a discussion in which iain macleod was involved from there a ctrl f search for stagf brings you to the pertinent quote now the quote from 1970 go to the historic hansard 1803 2005 page click the 20th century click the 1970s click 1970 click july click the 7th ctrl f search for econ click the one result ctrl f search for stagf three hits first hit chancellor of the exchequer mr iain macleod speaking the economy today shows two outstanding features on the one hand demand and activity are rather sluggish and unemployment is high compared with the post war average on the other hand there is the strongly rising trend in wages and prices this is a combination of stagnant production and cost inflation as shadow chancellor i christened it stagflation i cannot believe that even hon gentlemen opposite however they wish to paint this picture can be complacent about such a situation later that same day he was rushed to hospital with appendicitis he was discharged 11 days later yet at 10 30 pm on 20 july while in 11 downing street he suffered a massive heart attack and died at 11 35 pm so it goes posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments labels stagflation monday february 20 2017 documenting the origin of the term stagflation if you really really really want to know this will be interesting i got a little nervous when both glasner and krugman said the origin of the word stagflation was the mid 1970s after i said the mid 1960s and my only backup was wikipedia seems like i should be able to find a document that offers proof of some kind a newspaper clipping or magazine article from 1965 quoting iain macleod or something like that no looking for evidence as opposed to cut and pastings of the sentence the coinage of the word stagflation is attributed to him here is something from project gutenberg the world heritage encyclopedia article on iain norman macleod interestingly the article includes the quote of his first use of the word stagflation from 1965 we now have the worst of both worlds not just inflation on the one side or stagnation on the other but both of them together we have a sort of stagflation situation and history in modern terms is indeed being made and the quote is footnoted oddly the footnote link is broken at the mises wiki an article on stagflation the first line is a good definition of stagflation stagflation is an inflationary period accompanied by rising unemployment and lack of growth in consumer demand and business activity the second line attributes the term stagflation to iain macleod the term stagflation is attributed to british politician iain macleod who coined the phrase in his speech to parliament in 1965 both lines are footnoted the attribution footnote reads edward nelson and kalin nikolov monetary policy and stagflation in the uk bank of england working paper 155 2002 introduction page 9 note nelson and nikolov also point out that the term stagflation has sometimes been erroneously attributed to paul samuelson referenced 2011 04 25 the monetary policy and stagflation in the uk link takes you to page not found at the bank of england the bank of england link takes you to the bank of england page at the mises wiki you should be laughing by now i went fishing for a pdf named monetary policy and stagflation in the uk and did not come up empty found a couple different pdfs containing one page blurbs for the article at the bank of england no thanks found the pdf at citeseerx but that was yesterday in a google search for the quoted title captured the link tried it today and citeseerx doesn t know anything but i went to google again and searched for monetary policy and stagflation in the uk in quotes and the citeseerx link came up first on the list and the link works http citeseerx ist psu edu viewdoc download doi 10 1 1 201 3928 rep rep1 type pdf i don t know if it ll work for you the pdf is 43 pages long written by edward nelson and kalin nikolov the paper is bank of england 2002 and issn 1368 5562 i thought is was isbn but issn appears legit the mises wiki footnote refers to page 9 in the pdf that s the introduction the intro opens with this statement on 17 november 1965 iain macleod the spokesman on economic issues for the united kingdom s conservative party spoke in the house of commons on the state of the uk economy that opening is followed by the same worst of both worlds quote i showed above interestingly following that quote in the pdf there is a reference 17 november 1965 page 1 165 the reference is footnoted oddly the link works the footnote says many of the statements quoted in this paper are those by uk policy makers in parliament as given in the house of commons official report also known as hansard these quotations are indicated by the date of the speech and the page from the hansard volume from which the quotation is taken so there is hope maybe i can find the hansard volume that documents the quote good grief after the macleod quote the text says with these words macleod coined the term stagflation that sentence is footnoted the footnote says macleod used the term again in a speech to parliament on 7 july 1970 and confirmed that he had invented the word from then on the term was common parlance in uk economic policy debate being used for example in an article in the economist of 15 august 1970 some sources eg hall and taylor 1997 attribute the term to paul samuelson 1975 but the earliest occasion on which we have found samuelson used the word was in a newsweek column of 19 march 1973 entitled what s wrong reprinted in samuelson 1973 pages 178 80 now i m happy it s not only that the word is attributed to iain macleod he also says he invented it well that was easy huh i made a one page pdf of the page page 9 from the monetary policy and stagflation in the uk pdf download it and have a look if you want oh wow i found it actual documentation http hansard millbanksystems com commons 1965 nov 17 economic affairs now i m happy posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments labels stagflation sunday february 19 2017 in the context of yesterday s post you might find this funny via paul krugman paul krugman declares as a simple fact that stagflation was a term coined by paul samuelson to describe the combination of high inflation and high unemployment the era of stagflation in america began in 1974 and ended in the early 80s posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels stagflation saturday february 18 2017 how an economist thinks i usually like reading david glasner for snippets of economic history but i was a little disappointed when i read his old post on 1970s stagflation here is glasner s opening karl smith scott sumner and yichuan wang have been discussing whether the experience of the 1970s qualifies as stagflation the term stagflation seems to have been coined in the 1973 74 recession which was characterized by a rising inflation rate and a rising unemployment rate a paradoxical conjunction of events for which economic theory did not seem to have a ready explanation the term was not coined during the 1973 74 recession wikipedia on 17 november 1965 iain macleod the spokesman on economic issues for the united kingdom s conservative party warned of the gravity of the uk economic situation in the house of commons we now have the worst ...
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