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crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman monday march 31 2014 and yet there is some relation between gdp and unemployment following up on the previous post from the myth of jobless recoveries it is rare to call an economic relationship a law but okun s law has earned its name in 1962 arthur okun found a relationship that has become enshrined in textbooks as okun s law the textbook version states when u s output dips one percent below its potential unemployment rises above its natural rate by about half a percentage point posted by the arthurian at 4 00 pm 0 comments richard h serlin for people who care about unemployment we re still deep in recession in comments on the old stephen williamson post i looked at yesterday economist richard h serlin wrote part of the problem is that we don t care about just gdp at all we also care about unemployment by the gdp definition we aren t even in a recession let alone the great recession for people who care about unemployment we re still deep in recession we need a definition for recession depression that actually takes into account you know unemployment to see if the early 80s recession was worse for most people the crucial comparison is unemployment and how long not gdp growth in fact with our current definition of recession depression unemployment could be 30 and if we have two quarters of gdp growth from the 70 who do have jobs economists would say the depressions over i don t usually look at it that way but serlin makes a great point posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday march 30 2014 name dropping hodrick prescott williamson ball the cbo and bullard the other day i googled graph of hodrick prescott trend for gdp first thing that turned up was stephen williamson of the st louis fed s hp filters and potential output unusual for a williamson post i could follow most of it let me provide some background here from a summary of alternative methods for estimating potential gdp pdf first under cbo s method for estimating potential output cbo s estimate of potential output is based on the frame work of a textbook model of long term economic growth the solow growth model next under other methods for estimating potential output statistical filters such as centered moving averages bandpass filters the hodrick prescott filter and the kalman filter are often used to extract the trend from gdp directly finally under advantages and disadvantages of the different methods the statistical approaches also have their drawbacks for the filtering methods three shortcomings are significant first many of the filters do not benchmark their trends to any external measure of capacity therefore unlike cbo s results their results can be interpreted as trend gdp but not as potential gdp in other words they do not yield an estimate of the level of output that is consistent with stable inflation emphasis in the original the difference is significant potential output is supposed to show what gdp would be if the economy was running at the level where something demand maybe isn t causing inflation but it would be causing inflation if anybody put in just an ounce more effort or as cbo has it potential output is an estimate of full employment gross domestic product or the level of gdp attainable when the economy is operating at a high rate of resource use although potential output measures the productive capacity of the economy it is not a technical ceiling on output that cannot be exceeded rather it is a measure of sustainable output in which the intensity of resource use is neither adding to nor subtracting from inflationary pressure a year back i was having trouble with the myth of jobless recoveries a guest post by laurence ball daniel leigh and prakash loungani at econbrowser eventually i worked it out the trouble turned out to be that the econbrowser post was my first experience with the statistical approaches that do not benchmark their trends to any external measure of capacity after that i started doing some hodrick prescott calculations and understood that post a little better anyway stephen williamson writes in studying the cyclical behavior of economic time series one has to take a stand on how to separate the cyclical component of the time series from the trend component one approach is to simply fit a linear trend to the time series typically in natural logs for prices and quantities the problem with this is that there are typically medium run changes in growth trends e g real gdp grew at a relatively high rate in the 1960s and at a relatively low rate from 2000 2012 if we are interested in variation in the time series only at business cycle frequencies we should want to take out some of that medium run variation this requires that we somehow allow the growth trend to change over time that s essentially what the hp filter does williamson then quotes paul krugman when applied to business cycles the hp filter finds a smoothed measure of real gdp which is then taken to represent the economy s underlying potential but williamson says krugman has it wrong williamson says the same thing the cbo says hodrick prescott shows the trend of actual gdp not the trend of potential gdp the hp trend is no more a measure of potential than is a linear trend fit to the data the hp trend was arrived at through a purely statistical procedure how then could the hp trend be a measure of potential gdp to measure potential gdp requires a model stephen williamson then turns about face he says let s use the kydland prescott model which introduced the hp calculation to economists to figure potential output if the model is kydland and prescott s there is a clear answer to what potential is it s actual gdp and certainly not the hp trend that model doesn t have a government in it and was not intended for thinking about policy what kydland and prescott s work does for us though is to allow us to consider the possibility that for some or all business cycle events there may be nothing we can or should do about them think of actual gdp as the trend of potential gdp williamson says and consider the possibility that there may be nothing we can do about our declining economy reminds me of something written by a guy calling himself adam smith in the roaring 80s the keynesian revolution gave some hope that nations could do something about the economic blizzards that had previously been considered as random as the weather williamson is one of those who see the economic blizzards as like weather we can do nothing about can and should do nothing about why is this guy at the fed why is he even an economist williamson s third graph williamson s third the log of real gdp and the hp trend since 2000 he says of this graph in its attempt to fit the actual time series the hp filter has done away with part of what we might want to think of as the recession and real gdp in the first quarter of 2012 was more than 1 above trend by 2012 actual gdp is above trend the output gap is gone because the hodrick prescott calculation pushed the trend line down in response to the great recession it is a fluke in the calculation it doesn t mean everything is back to normal it doesn t mean unemployment is back to normal it doesn t mean the economy is booming again it is a fluke in the calculation but you know what i think i think that s where james bullard got his wealth shock view from a fluke in the calculation update 16 september 2014 my conclusion bullard got his wealth shock view from a fluke in the h p calculation is confirmed in the july 2012 article blog review hp filters and business cycles by jérémie cohen setton and yury yatsynovich james bullard pointed to these hodrick prescott estimates together with the fact that we don t see deflationary pressures see our review here as evidence that advanced economies are operating near potential if not above tim duy points that st louis federal reserve president james bullard likes to rely on this technique to support his claim that the us economy is operating near potential but there is an end point problem with the hp calculation luís morais sarmento economist at banco de portugal explains that the end point problem results from the fact that the series smoothed by the hp filter tend to be close to the observed data at the beginning and at the end of the estimation period and this tim duy points that if you don t deal with the endpoint problem you get that actual output is above the hp trend yeah i noticed this end point problem too see how to change the past posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments saturday march 29 2014 technology productivity growth and cost technological advance drives productivity if cost permits but cannot move productivity if cost prevents it cost also allows or disallows the growth of output so it looks like there is a relation between productivity and output in truth the connection is not direct but runs through cost posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday march 28 2014 productivity growth and cost in the year 2000 alan greenspan looked to improved productivity as the reason the economy was so good in the last few years it has become increasingly clear that this business cycle differs in a very profound way from the many other cycles that have characterized post world war ii america not only has the expansion achieved record length but it has done so with economic growth far stronger than expected most remarkably inflation has remained largely subdued in the face of labor markets tighter than any we have experienced in a generation a key factor behind this extremely favorable performance has been the resurgence in productivity growth stands to reason if we produce more per hour than we used to and nothing else changes then output will go up yet only a couple years later greenspan was puzzled productivity growth was impressively good but economic growth was not the increase in nonfarm business output per hour over the past year will almost surely be reported as one of the largest advances if not the largest posted over the past thirty years we at the federal reserve along with our colleagues in government and the private sector are struggling to account for so strong a surge we would not be particularly puzzled if the increases in output per hour were occurring during a period of very rapid economic growth such as has often attended recoveries from steep recessions but during the past year we averaged only modest economic growth evidently productivity growth is not the whole story when it comes to economic growth in the latter speech greenspan said from an average annual rate of 1 3 4 percent in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century it jumped to a 3 3 4 percent rate in the decade following world war i subsequently productivity growth returned to a 1 3 4 percent pace then for the quarter century following world war ii productivity growth rose to an average rate of 2 3 4 percent before subsiding to a pace of 1 1 2 percent annually from the mid 1970s to the mid 1990s and then looking back over the latter 1990s from his 2002 perspective over the past seven years output per hour has been growing at an annual rate o...
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