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tensen fitted debt which one is not like the others log of real fixed private investment and trends just by eye a barometer of growth looks like a measure of the economy s performance fixed private investment the components of base money 3 the components of base money 2 neil irwin can t be right openness of economic data and code the nobel prize for ego don t rush me disastrous cumulative and far reaching repercussi what else could we reasonably do when hope interferes science turns to alchemy the key discovery the one success outperforming our potential going thru the motions i have to look at the spreadsheet 2 i have to look at the spreadsheet the crisis is results 10 181 world bank series added to fred i don t know what to say suddenly everything is different corporate extinctions fwiw labor and nonlabor unit costs i d also like to see more work done on the transfe spoiler alert one could argue that growth is the cause of inflat fun with numbers let me repeat that the whites of their eyes july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman saturday august 31 2013 fpi and christensen fitted debt couple weeks back i looked at the calculations behind lars christensen s market expectations index he did some nifty stuff with averages and standard deviations to fit one line to another on a graph to make visual comparison easier i saw an opportunity to practice that calculation to compare the movements of tcmdo debt to fixed private investment but first i took the easy way out and in graph 3 of the 25th i fitted tcmdo to fpi by eye after looking at the unfitted graph i wanted to scale the debt numbers up by a factor of 3 then after seeing the result of scaling i decided to subtract 20 from the debt numbers to shift the debt line down and get it close to the fpi line but it was all just ballpark so i downloaded the numbers from fred for graph 2 of the 25th sat down to work and applied christensen s calculations to the debt numbers graph 1 tcmdo debt red christensen fitted to fixed private investment blue for comparison here s the no finesse graph i showed on the 25th graph 2 tcmdo debt red fitted by eye to fixed private investment blue pretty good for no finesse funny thing when i was doing the no finesse graph and writing that post i was careful not to talk about the one line being higher than the other it s okay to talk about something happening first in the one line and later in the other and it s okay to observe the one line changing more rapidly than the other but you can t say one is higher or lower or even that it changes from higher to lower or the reverse because the relative positions higher and lower depend on how much you subtract as part of the christensen fit calculation actually i was disappointed when i sat down to do the calculation lars s way i had forgotten that christensen s calculation includes an arbitrary up and down adjustment term that term puts the same ambiguity into his calc that i had in my finesse free version it makes the relative positioning of the two lines completely arbitrary that may be necessary when the calc combines two datasets for comparison to one as christensen s does i don t know but intuition tells me that if i take just one dataset like tcmdo and tweak it by the average and the standard deviation values for that dataset then i shouldn t also need an arbitrary up and down adjustment i m not linking to my spreadsheet this time because the calc isn t clear in my head maybe i ve got a mistake in it that looks okay because of the up and down adjustment i made i have to work through this calc and get more familiar with it meanwhile i still think it s an interesting technique posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments friday august 30 2013 which one is not like the others earlier this week i showed the shocking decline of fixed private investment relative to total accumulated debt graph 1 fixed private investment relative to total debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession today we look at fixed private investment relative to components of the total debt graph 2 fixed private investment relative to nonfinancial debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession graph 3 fixed private investment relative to the publicly held part of federal debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession graph 4 fixed private investment relative to non federal non financial debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession graph 5 fixed private investment relative to household debt it shows significant changes before the 1980 recession after the 1990 recession before the 2001 recession and toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession graph 6 fixed private investment relative to financial debt it seems to show a trend change toward the end of the 2007 2009 recession which one is not like the others posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fpi pfi thursday august 29 2013 log of real fixed private investment and trends hover the mouse over the graph to see the trend lines i sketched in graph 1 fixed private investment deflated log of it looks like investment growth trended at one rate right up to 1980 and at a slower rate thereafter i don t imagine i m the first guy to say that but i do want to point out that the growth of real gdp shows a similar slowdown right around 1980 of course it makes sense that if economic growth slowed in 1980 the driver of economic growth also slowed around that time it makes sense the thing is nobody says it no for example scott sumner says this growth was slowing almost everywhere in the 1970s and 1980s and this growth in us living standards slowed after 1973 after 1973 yeah about seven years after 1973 between the 1974 recession and the 1980 recession graph 1 shows fpi increasing faster than at any other time since 1960 growth was strong after the 1974 recession growth didn t slow then growth didn t slow until paul volcker suppressed inflation and disposed of the corpse of vigor posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fpi pfi wednesday august 28 2013 just by eye continuing our look at fixed private investment and total debt the growth of fixed private investment peaks before the growth of total debt graph 1 fixed private investment blue and total credit market debt red on log scales the values are shown on a log scale to make growth rates visually evident investment the blue line appears to curve gradually upward until 1980 then trends upward at a slower pace on a straight rather than upcurving path debt the red line appears to curve gradually upward until around 1986 then trends upward at a slower pace on a path that displays little if any upward curve the upward curve of the blue line appears to run from 1960 to 1980 that of the red line from 1970 to near 1990 either or both of these upcurves might be related to the great inflation and they probably are but it is difficult by eye to imagine why inflation would appear first in the investment numbers and later in the debt numbers posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels fpi pfi tuesday august 27 2013 a barometer of growth a search for pfi at fred turned up plenty of results but only one containing the word investment purchasing power parity converted gdp per capita laspeyres derived from growth rates of consumption government consumption investment for finland i didn t go there that search also turned up one result containing the word private nonfarm private financial activities payroll employment i didn t go there it turned up no result containing the word fixed a search for fpi at fred brings you immediately to the fixed private investment graph there the notes tell us notes bea account code a007rc1 a guide to the national income and product accounts of the united states nipa http www bea gov national pdf nipaguid pdf at the nipaguid pdf a name that satisfies the 8 character limit of ms dos file names in case you haven t yet upgraded we find the phrase private fixed investment on page 5 and in a table on page 7 and on page 14 gross domestic investment 6 1 measures the total investment in the united states in fixed assets that is the structures equipment and software that are used in production and in inventories change in private inventories it is the sum of private fixed investment see 1 20 government fixed investment see 1 29 and change in private inventories 1 25 i quit looking for pfi at that point i like that definition it reminds me of something i once knew that change in inventory counts as part of investment that s an important bit of trivia which explains the s i thing people are always talking about not relevant to this post but worth remembering certainly there were no occurrences in the nipaguid of the phrase fixed private investment so what fred calls fpi and what bea calls pfi are the same thing i can talk of fixed private investment and private fixed investment interchangeably with impunity good because in a different pdf from bea or actually in chapter 6 of what looks like the same nipaguid but in a different file we find this private fixed investment pfi measures spending by private businesses nonprofit institutions and households on fixed assets in the u s economy fixed assets consist of structures equipment and software that are used in the production of goods and services pfi encompasses the creation of new productive assets the improvement of existing assets and the replacement of worn out or obsolete assets the pfi estimates serve as an indicator of the willingness of private businesses and nonprofit institutions to expand their production capacity and as an indicator of the demand for housing thus movements in pfi serve as a barometer of confidence in and support for future economic growth a barometer of growth i said that yesterday neither of those pdfs plays nicely with ctrl c cut and ctrl v paste operations this post resolves two issues first that pfi and fpi are two names for the same thing second what is measured by fred s fpi posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 10 comments labels fpi pfi monday august 26 2013 looks like a measure of the economy s performance ye...
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